Single situations don't always follow statistical trends. You're right there. The point of statistics is to prove that that result or something very close to it happens often enough that if you roll 100 times, 1,000, 10,000, the trend is consistent for the entire sample.

Every one knows you can't roll half of a hit. Rolling .5 hits means that for every two rolls, it will yield a single hit, on average. You might get five hits in a row, two blanks, another hit, and four blanks, but this is 6-6, and therefore consistent with the trend.

Guys, you're getting off Topic.

I vote for 14pts

Some others do so, too

Some ppl think it's higher

But we all can't do more than wait until we see the card.

Lolol. Aaaaaannnnddd, this conversation is done. No point in trying to talk math with someone who clearly doesn't grasp the basics - and rebuffs attempts to help.

Slightly more on topic, like others, I expect the Scyk will be either 13 or 14 points. Personally I hope 13 points. I feel like the title will be too expensive otherwise (and yes I know we have to evaluate it without).

Also, I think it would be slightly weird if Serissu cost 20 and the cheapest Scyk was more than 14... If it were 15, might as well pay the 5 points for a ton of ps and a sweet ability. That's the cost of an assault missile...

And thanks Red Castle for the actual statistics, as I said the Tie Interceptor may be more powerful but the A-wing is more consistent. Sure eventually results will fall closer to the probability chance, but I don't see too many games of X-wing lasting 20 turns, and every game is different.

Guys, you're getting off Topic.

I vote for 14pts

Some others do so, too

Some ppl think it's higher

But we all can't do more than wait until we see the card.

Still people say anything more than 15 is ludicrous. Well lets see at 15 points a basic ship that gives you up to 6 ships max. Okay well raise it up to 16 points and that will knock the number down to 6 ships. So you get the same number of ships only difference is what points you have left for upgrades and since the 6 A-wing list discarded their upgrade bar they don't have allot they can modify without dropping a ship for say Tycho+PTL(I think a lot if people trying the 6 A-wing build will be disappointed but that's for another thread). The 16 points a ship will have 4 points to spare. That's enough to switch the generic PS 2 Cartel pilot for the 20 point skill 8 Serissu for a perfect 100 points as if by design. There is your non-ScumZie-95 S&V swarm build.

Okay lets go with the common Heavy Title + HLC upgrade. You essentially get 4 Interceptors with 1 hull replaced by shields and also roll 4 attack dice at range 2-3 instead of only 3. I think that is about as effective as 5 Tie Interceptors. Also you can switch out the HLC for Ion and the upcoming Flechette cannons for more points to add a fifth Heavy MA-3 as well as have the stress Ion combo.

Okay lets go to Phantom like builds, HLC + shield upgrade or stealth device. Now with sigma you can have 4 but you don't see them tearing up the matt because when they decloak to fire they are down to 2 agility for everyone skill 4 or higher to get a pot shot off. Now only 3 HLC + Defence might not equal the firepower of 4 Sigma Pilots however an MA-3 with SU or SD will have better survivability than a decloaked Sigma. Even if it gets hit once with Stealth Device it still has 3 agility where phantom has only 2.

However as mentioned before we won't know until we see the card. Nothing anyone posts on this thread will convince me otherwise just as I can't convince anyone to change their guess. My guesses are 16 for Cartel generic, 18 for the skill 5 (+3 skill for 2 points seems fair) 19 for the skill 6 unique and we all know the most expensive will be 20.

I am confident about my speculation on the skill 2 being 16 points but not as much as the others. No I am not putting any money on it for 2 reasons: 1, I don't have a way to guarantee I can collect if I win the bet; and 2,

it doesn't even matter what we guess this thread won't affect the outcome. When the card is finally revealed either through a new FFG update or leaked from collectors who have received their pre-release copy then we can all go on the forum and post on how the point cost is too low, or how it cost too many points, or how the point cost is just right. (Just a note, I will be in the 3rd group, even if it is revealed that it is only 13 points)

But you forgot to compare it to the ship that is the most like it: the A-Wing.

Now, to help boost the price of the Scyk, let's say they have the same dial. What is the difference between a Scyk and a Prototype pilot with Chardaan Refit?

-A-Wing has 1 more shield.

-Scyk has one more PS.

-Scyk has Barrel roll instead of Boost.

Even if I believe Barrel Roll is worth more than Boost, I still believe that the A-Wing is worth a little bit more than the Scyk, and that is still leaving the dial out of the equation.

So,

13 if it has a dial similar to the Tie Fighter

14 (my personal guess) if it has a dial similar to the A-Wing/Tie Interceptor

15 if there is a combo yet to be seen that could suddenly give it more value (new cannon or modification)

16 if they don't want to see it hit the table because they secretly hate the S&V faction

Except no one is scared of a 6 ship swarm with only 2 dice and no offensive upgrades. Even 6 tie swarms pack stabber, mauler, and howlrunner for 2 more dice, PS, and mass rerolls (and room for trix like more named, more offense, more defense, or a 7th ship!). If the base is 15 a heavy is 17 and you're looking at a cannon or missile packing 3 Hp tie at 20-24 pts. Really not impressive. At. All.

I think the real question of cost of the scyk is "can we have 4 HLC scyks or not?".

At 9 points (title + HLC) 17 points reduces us to 3 HLC ships, while a 12-16 cost gives us 4 HLC scyks possible. Given the 8 p.s. and (22?) point cost revealed in the card fan, a ps 2 scyk should be a minimum of 16 points (assuming there's no discounts or wonk ones in the preview cost. That's the golden number. So I'll put my bet on 13-16 points.

6x16 fits in 100 points.

7 x 14 fits in 100 points.

So our second golden number is 14 vs 15 points. As that's the swarm threshold. I doubt we will see it step on the toes of the z95. And 13-14 points spams at 7 ships.

So what do you think, can we fly 7 or 6 of them naked....

In the developer interview when asked to describe the role of the Syck the developer thought for a second or two, and then said they would be in the Black Squadron area. Since that is 14 points, and I doubt he would be purposefully trying to throw people off from them being 13 or 15 points, my money's on 14.

My hope is that this means the basic one is 14, and the next one up is 16. This enables 4x PS5 heavy Syck with HLC which if not strictly competitive might be fun and cool.

Unless he was referring to the PS 5 Scyk. Which could have an Elite Talent.

Just magnify original pictures in reveal article, Ps 8 is 20, not 22

And thanks Red Castle for the actual statistics, as I said the Tie Interceptor may be more powerful but the A-wing is more consistent. Sure eventually results will fall closer to the probability chance, but I don't see too many games of X-wing lasting 20 turns, and every game is different.

Guys, you're getting off Topic.

I vote for 14pts

Some others do so, too

Some ppl think it's higher

But we all can't do more than wait until we see the card.

Good point. I still say 16 not because of individual power but because of squad build potential.

Still people say anything more than 15 is ludicrous. Well lets see at 15 points a basic ship that gives you up to 6 ships max. Okay well raise it up to 16 points and that will knock the number down to 6 ships. So you get the same number of ships only difference is what points you have left for upgrades and since the 6 A-wing list discarded their upgrade bar they don't have allot they can modify without dropping a ship for say Tycho+PTL(I think a lot if people trying the 6 A-wing build will be disappointed but that's for another thread). The 16 points a ship will have 4 points to spare. That's enough to switch the generic PS 2 Cartel pilot for the 20 point skill 8 Serissu for a perfect 100 points as if by design. There is your non-ScumZie-95 S&V swarm build.

Okay lets go with the common Heavy Title + HLC upgrade. You essentially get 4 Interceptors with 1 hull replaced by shields and also roll 4 attack dice at range 2-3 instead of only 3. I think that is about as effective as 5 Tie Interceptors. Also you can switch out the HLC for Ion and the upcoming Flechette cannons for more points to add a fifth Heavy MA-3 as well as have the stress Ion combo.

Okay lets go to Phantom like builds, HLC + shield upgrade or stealth device. Now with sigma you can have 4 but you don't see them tearing up the matt because when they decloak to fire they are down to 2 agility for everyone skill 4 or higher to get a pot shot off. Now only 3 HLC + Defence might not equal the firepower of 4 Sigma Pilots however an MA-3 with SU or SD will have better survivability than a decloaked Sigma. Even if it gets hit once with Stealth Device it still has 3 agility where phantom has only 2.

However as mentioned before we won't know until we see the card. Nothing anyone posts on this thread will convince me otherwise just as I can't convince anyone to change their guess. My guesses are 16 for Cartel generic, 18 for the skill 5 (+3 skill for 2 points seems fair) 19 for the skill 6 unique and we all know the most expensive will be 20.

I am confident about my speculation on the skill 2 being 16 points but not as much as the others. No I am not putting any money on it for 2 reasons: 1, I don't have a way to guarantee I can collect if I win the bet; and 2,

it doesn't even matter what we guess this thread won't affect the outcome. When the card is finally revealed either through a new FFG update or leaked from collectors who have received their pre-release copy then we can all go on the forum and post on how the point cost is too low, or how it cost too many points, or how the point cost is just right. (Just a note, I will be in the 3rd group, even if it is revealed that it is only 13 points)

You can't choose to only compare it to it's role in a squad or if you could swarm it. You see mini swarms popping up, with another ship assisting the swarm, you see mixed swarms, etc. Yes it's a consideration of course, one of many.

Also you compare it to a tie interceptor but choose to equip it with a HLC to compare it, which makes it cost 25 points following your expected 16 point cost, or 22-24 points if the rest of us are right.

Now you have a +1 firepower at range 2 and 3, TL over Boost for 4 points more. I'd go with a tie interceptor over the HLC Scyk, but then again I don't believe in HLC for most ships.

Then you go even further and compare it to the number one ship atm. The phantom. Yes that's a fair comparison. It's between a tie fighter and a A-wing or tie interceptor. The A-wing will cost 15, I don't think it's as good as an A-wing, as that ship has so many going for it. So in the worst case they think it's equal, so 15. 14 is my bet with a decent dial like the A-wing or the Tie-interceptor. 13 if the dial is bad. But 16. That would make it a lot better than the A-wing, which it is not.

I can't believe you actually think the PS2 will be 16 points (and say that you're confident in it) so I'm going to assume you're trolling now.

Do you really think that the PS8 pilot is only 4 points more? We're talking 6 points of pilot skill AND an ability for four points? Not gonna happen. I would bet you 20:1 odds.

Next.

I think the real question of cost of the scyk is "can we have 4 HLC scyks or not?".

At 9 points (title + HLC) 17 points reduces us to 3 HLC ships, while a 12-16 cost gives us 4 HLC scyks possible. Given the 8 p.s. and (22?) point cost revealed in the card fan, a ps 2 scyk should be a minimum of 16 points (assuming there's no discounts or wonk ones in the preview cost. That's the golden number. So I'll put my bet on 13-16 points.

6x16 fits in 100 points.

7 x 14 fits in 100 points.

So our second golden number is 14 vs 15 points. As that's the swarm threshold. I doubt we will see it step on the toes of the z95. And 13-14 points spams at 7 ships.

So what do you think, can we fly 7 or 6 of them naked....

I really hope it's 14. Then we can fit four with HLCs including Serissu.

you totally miss one point:

if the base scyk with ps 2 costs more than 14 pts you would get +6 PS AND an ability for less than 6 points. I know Howlrunner is such an example for beeing +7 PS but only +6pts, but we have new designers now.

Lolol. Aaaaaannnnddd, this conversation is done. No point in trying to talk math with someone who clearly doesn't grasp the basics - and rebuffs attempts to help.

Slightly more on topic, like others, I expect the Scyk will be either 13 or 14 points. Personally I hope 13 points. I feel like the title will be too expensive otherwise (and yes I know we have to evaluate it without).

Also, I think it would be slightly weird if Serissu cost 20 and the cheapest Scyk was more than 14... If it were 15, might as well pay the 5 points for a ton of ps and a sweet ability. That's the cost of an assault missile...

I can't believe you actually think the PS2 will be 16 points (and say that you're confident in it) so I'm going to assume you're trolling now.

Do you really think that the PS8 pilot is only 4 points more? We're talking 6 points of pilot skill AND an ability for four points? Not gonna happen. I would bet you 20:1 odds.

Next.

Back on topic if you read Ravencat post it is not about the stats or the individual ships but what lists you can build with those ships. Many are asking how many HLCs can I squeeze into a squadron which the answer would be quite a few with the Firespray and the new ship title. Not to mention any new cannon combination with the new "stress" cannon comming up.

But let me reiterate the last paragraph in case some people skip over it because my opinion disagrees with theirs (you will find that many people don't share the same view point as yourself) this thread will not influence the point cost and when it is finally revealed we then can go all over the forums and post on how it cost to little, too much or what I would end up doing, just say the point cost is just right(even if it turns out to be only 13). Have a good evening or day depending on your time- zone.

Understanding basic math - even up to algebra and calculus - does not mean you have more than the slightest grasp of statistics.

And you still haven't answered the question. How can you possibly expect the PS2 Scyk to cost 4 points less than the PS8 version (which also has an ability)? That would be such a gross departure from every ship released so far it would completely alter the game.

Please let us hear your justification.

Only you because you get so animated and it is amusing. Also as a note as an engineering major who is on the Dean's list and have A's from Algebra to Calculus (Linear Algebra might have a different story, I'll find out this quarter) so I'll leave you with this line from Tupac, "You don't know me, so don't judge me."

In that case I suspect your professors would be surprised and disappointed to find out that your approach to an entire branch of mathematics is "the reality is that situations don't always follow statistics", or that when asked to compare two averages you didn't bother to work out what the averages actually were before replying, or that you believe a real-valued average of a count variable is uninterpretable.

Back on topic if you read Ravencat post it is not about the stats or the individual ships but what lists you can build with those ships. Many are asking how many HLCs can I squeeze into a squadron which the answer would be quite a few with the Firespray and the new ship title. Not to mention any new cannon combination with the new "stress" cannon comming up.

What does the Firespray have to do with any of this? If you want to limit the game to no more than three HLCs, that means the cheapest Scyk would be at least 24 points, and I hope we can at least agree that's out of the realm of possibility. If you want to limit the game to no more than four HLCs, that means the cheapest Scyk has to cost at least 12 points, and again I hope we can agree that it won't be less expensive than that.

Accordingly, the number of HLCs a Scum and Villainy list will be able to bring is certainly 4, and the constraints that creates on the cost of the fighter are essentially meaningless. The Flechette Cannon or Mango Cannon might create additional constraints, but since we don't know their mechanics or costs, it's essentially impossible to include them in any chain of logic except as an asterisk.

As I said upthread, the Scyk won't be cheaper than a TIE Fighter (because the designers were pretty clear about not bringing in ships cheaper than 12 points) and it won't be more expensive than a Refit A-wing (because the A-wing has a very good dial, a good action bar, and a better stat line). The fact that we know the PS8 pilot costs 20 makes a 15-point PS2 pilot unlikely, so 13-14 is where the smart money lies.

You can believe whatever you want, of course, but your objections so far appear to amount to "no, it'll totally be 16" without actually addressing anything anyone else has said about its likely costs.

Actually, the Scyk would have to cost 17 to prevent 4 HLC.

Making the Scyk 16pts would put it into the exact same situation as the A-wing was with the Z-95 before the Refit. Not in a very good position. Add in that the Scyk is worse than the A-wing and that the Z-95 is likely to have the illicit upgrade, I just can't see it costing more than a Refit A-wing.

Actually, the Scyk would have to cost 17 to prevent 4 HLC.

Sigh. Started with "the Scyk with the cannon would have to cost more than 25", went back to change it to "the naked Scyk would have to cost more than 25-9", and somehow ended up with 24.

And in a post where I lectured Marinealver about math, too.

This thread is extremelly agressive for just an speculation thread.

Actually, the Scyk would have to cost 17 to prevent 4 HLC.

Sigh. Started with "the Scyk with the cannon would have to cost more than 25", went back to change it to "the naked Scyk would have to cost more than 25-9", and somehow ended up with 24.

And in a post where I lectured Marinealver about math, too.

Shame on you Vorpal.... shame on you....

Not to mention, Serissu, like Howlrunner, creates and area effect, which means it is best benefited by a large number of allies in close formation with her.

This is actually incorrect. HR needs a swarm to get the most benefit, because generally a single ship can attack at most once per turn. However, Serissu can escort a single ship that then defends against multiple attacks, getting a reroll on each. No swarm needed. Imagine this ship sitting next to the Scum equivalent of a Fat Han.

So while a defensive reroll isn't numerically as good as an offensive one, I think that it's a more flexible ability.

Also, taking a wave 1 pilot (from before they really dialed in the game's balance) with one of the best pilot skills in the game that looks like it was priced negatively, and then extrapolating that out to a wave 6 ship seems highly suspect.

13 points at PS 2.

Not to mention, Serissu, like Howlrunner, creates and area effect, which means it is best benefited by a large number of allies in close formation with her.

This is actually incorrect. HR needs a swarm to get the most benefit, because generally a single ship can attack at most once per turn. However, Serissu can escort a single ship that then defends against multiple attacks, getting a reroll on each. No swarm needed. Imagine this ship sitting next to the Scum equivalent of a Fat Han.

So while a defensive reroll isn't numerically as good as an offensive one, I think that it's a more flexible ability.

Also, taking a wave 1 pilot (from before they really dialed in the game's balance) with one of the best pilot skills in the game that looks like it was priced negatively, and then extrapolating that out to a wave 6 ship seems highly suspect.

13 points at PS 2.

That is an excellent point! Thanks a lot for your thoughts. This might indeed make her ability more valuable. Appears more versatile, if nothing else.