I guess I don't see why Threepio was a particularly groundbreaking upgrade to the Falcon. He provides, at most, 0.625 evades per round (or, rather, he provides exactly 1 extra evade 62.5% of the time).

But the standard deviation is zero. In a tournament setting, anything to minimize bad luck against you is really important, no?

Absolutely, and that's one of my favorite things about it. What I was trying to get at is that while Threepio pegs your number of evade results at max (once per round), it doesn't move the needle outside the typical range.

On average, that means you have to take three rounds of focused fire for Threepio to be better than Hull Upgrade, and four rounds for him to be better than (the crew version of) Chewie.

Three rounds? 0.625 per round * 2 rounds = 1.25 (statistically average) damage > 1 hull

4 rounds compared to Chewie crew makes sense. 4*0.625 = 2.5.

But if you have bad rolls, C-3P0 matches Chewie crew in just 2 rounds.

...this is what happens when you're in a hurry and you use ">" in a formula when you meant ">=".

So let me revise as follows: it takes just two rounds of attacks for Threepio to beat out a Hull Upgrade, and three for him to beat out Chewbacca (the modal result of three draws at 62.5% is two successes). Still, the median result for three ships with 3 Attack hitting the Falcon for three rounds is 17 damage, and that means Threepio has to be working pretty hard to buy the Falcon an extra round of life even against a relatively weak list.

I guess I don't see why Threepio was a particularly groundbreaking upgrade to the Falcon. He provides, at most, 0.625 evades per round (or, rather, he provides exactly 1 extra evade 62.5% of the time).

But the standard deviation is zero. In a tournament setting, anything to minimize bad luck against you is really important, no?

Absolutely, and that's one of my favorite things about it. What I was trying to get at is that while Threepio pegs your number of evade results at max (once per round), it doesn't move the needle outside the typical range.

On average, that means you have to take three rounds of focused fire for Threepio to be better than Hull Upgrade, and four rounds for him to be better than (the crew version of) Chewie.

Three rounds? 0.625 per round * 2 rounds = 1.25 (statistically average) damage > 1 hull

4 rounds compared to Chewie crew makes sense. 4*0.625 = 2.5.

But if you have bad rolls, C-3P0 matches Chewie crew in just 2 rounds.

...this is what happens when you're in a hurry and you use ">" in a formula when you meant ">=".

So let me revise as follows: it takes just two rounds of attacks for Threepio to beat out a Hull Upgrade, and three for him to beat out Chewbacca (the modal result of three draws at 62.5% is two successes). Still, the median result for three ships with 3 Attack hitting the Falcon for three rounds is 17 damage, and that means Threepio has to be working pretty hard to buy the Falcon an extra round of life even against a relatively weak list.

What would be a weak list in your mind?

You guys think c3po is bad? Just wait till I start taking the falcon with 2 recon specialists and the falcon title alongside kyle with jan and having the falcon get 5 evade tokens each turn...

That, sir, is a good idea.

I guess I don't see why Threepio was a particularly groundbreaking upgrade to the Falcon. He provides, at most, 0.625 evades per round (or, rather, he provides exactly 1 extra evade 62.5% of the time).

But the standard deviation is zero. In a tournament setting, anything to minimize bad luck against you is really important, no?

Absolutely, and that's one of my favorite things about it. What I was trying to get at is that while Threepio pegs your number of evade results at max (once per round), it doesn't move the needle outside the typical range.

On average, that means you have to take three rounds of focused fire for Threepio to be better than Hull Upgrade, and four rounds for him to be better than (the crew version of) Chewie.

Three rounds? 0.625 per round * 2 rounds = 1.25 (statistically average) damage > 1 hull

4 rounds compared to Chewie crew makes sense. 4*0.625 = 2.5.

But if you have bad rolls, C-3P0 matches Chewie crew in just 2 rounds.

...this is what happens when you're in a hurry and you use ">" in a formula when you meant ">=".

So let me revise as follows: it takes just two rounds of attacks for Threepio to beat out a Hull Upgrade, and three for him to beat out Chewbacca (the modal result of three draws at 62.5% is two successes). Still, the median result for three ships with 3 Attack hitting the Falcon for three rounds is 17 damage, and that means Threepio has to be working pretty hard to buy the Falcon an extra round of life even against a relatively weak list.

Interesting points. A few thoughts. Maybe I am a terrible pilot, but I find a Falcon incredibly difficult to nail down with 3 3-attack ships for 3 rounds. And sometimes it is quite difficult to keep those 3 ships on the board for 3 rounds against the consistent damage the turret/gunner provide. I think MrFroggies has the right of it here that engine upgrade/expert handling (and the Falcon dial and turret!) is a key factor that limits the #attacks/round and is really makes C3PO hum more than a Hull or a Chewie. In line up and shoot at each other style warfare, it doesn't look so superior.

You guys think c3po is bad? Just wait till I start taking the falcon with 2 recon specialists and the falcon title alongside kyle with jan and having the falcon get 5 evade tokens each turn...

That, sir, is a good idea.

Doesn't jan only activate once per round? I don't know how that matches up with RecSpec, but I think it specifically says once per round and "an evade token".

That said, Kyle with Jan crew + titled Falcon + C3PO would get you to 3 evades/turn.

You guys think c3po is bad? Just wait till I start taking the falcon with 2 recon specialists and the falcon title alongside kyle with jan and having the falcon get 5 evade tokens each turn...

That, sir, is a good idea.

I looked this up. I think it works only once, still not bad.

You guys think c3po is bad? Just wait till I start taking the falcon with 2 recon specialists and the falcon title alongside kyle with jan and having the falcon get 5 evade tokens each turn...

And then watch your opponent laugh hysterically when he wrecks Jan and you're stuck with a bunch of focuses instead.

It's been a while sense we've done any squad reviews. So here's the Challenge to the community. Lets see your counter to both the Phantom and the Falcon. Post you squad and tell us why you think it will work.

Two ideas. The first is a variation on the two-ICT idea I've been churning over lately: the plan is to use Dutch and Roark to ionize whatever the primary threat is on the opponent's side, exerting enough control to throw your opponent's game plan off while the X-wings home in and make the life of the ionized ship as short as possible.

"Dutch" Vander (23)

Ion Cannon Turret (5)

Roark Garnet (19)

Ion Cannon Turret (5)

Tarn Mison (23)

R7 Astromech (2)

Rookie Pilot (21)

R3-A2 (2)

Total: 100

The second list is going to have wait for Rebel Aces, but it combines mobile Wedge and defensive Tarn with a pair of Prototype Pilots + Proton Rockets as flanker. The idea here is fairly simple: either focus on the A-wings and get pinned down by Wedge and Tarn, or face Tarn and slow-rolling Wedge while the A-wings come in to deliver their Proton Rockets (which in conjunction stand a good chance of killing a Phantom outright).

Of course the danger is that the Phantom in particular will just avoid everybody and pick my guys off one at a time, but I think good flying out to make catching them with either Wedge (mmm, 3-4 attack dice against 1 Agility...) or the Prototypes fairly reliable.

Prototype Pilot (17)

Proton Rockets (3)

Prototype Pilot (17)

Proton Rockets (3)

Wedge Antilles (29)

Expert Handling (2)

R7-T1 (3)

Tarn Mison (23)

R7 Astromech (2)

Total: 99

You guys think c3po is bad? Just wait till I start taking the falcon with 2 recon specialists and the falcon title alongside kyle with jan and having the falcon get 5 evade tokens each turn...

And then watch your opponent laugh hysterically when he wrecks Jan and you're stuck with a bunch of focuses instead.

To be fair every shot not at Chewie early means he's more likely to survive to late game. Still double evade on the falcon is a great look. not sure there's enough there to get to kyle +jan+ ion and then 2 bandits to go along with chewie. This is my best thought and I'm not sure it works.

...this is what happens when you're in a hurry and you use ">" in a formula when you meant ">=".

It appears that your response was more rushed than my post. 1.25 is greater than 1. I said statistically average, so fractions apply. ">" is appropriate. Proof: here's the exact PDF and average damage absorbed by evade dice.

1 roll: [0.6250 0.3750] = 0.375 damage

2 rolls: [0.3906 0.4688 0.1406] = 0.750 damage

3 rolls: [0.2441 0.4395 0.2637 0.0527] = 1.125 damage

4 rolls: [0.1526 0.3662 0.3296 0.1318 0.0198] = 1.500 damage

Total damage mitigation:

naked Hull Upgrade Chewie C-3P0

1 roll: 0.375 1.375 2.375 1

2 rolls: 0.750 1.750 2.750 2

3 rolls: 1.125 2.125 3.125 3

4 rolls: 1.500 2.500 3.500 4

...this is what happens when you're in a hurry and you use ">" in a formula when you meant ">=".

It appears that your response was more rushed than my post. 1.25 is greater than 1. I said statistically average, so fractions apply. ">" is appropriate. Proof: here's the exact PDF and average damage absorbed by evade dice.

1 roll: [0.6250 0.3750] = 0.375 damage

2 rolls: [0.3906 0.4688 0.1406] = 0.750 damage

3 rolls: [0.2441 0.4395 0.2637 0.0527] = 1.125 damage

4 rolls: [0.1526 0.3662 0.3296 0.1318 0.0198] = 1.500 damage

Total damage mitigation:

naked Hull Upgrade Chewie C-3P0

1 roll: 0.375 1.375 2.375 1

2 rolls: 0.750 1.750 2.750 2

3 rolls: 1.125 2.125 3.125 3

4 rolls: 1.500 2.500 3.500 4

LOL. In that case, I retract my retraction!

...this is what happens when you're in a hurry and you use ">" in a formula when you meant ">=".

It appears that your response was more rushed than my post. 1.25 is greater than 1. I said statistically average, so fractions apply. ">" is appropriate. Proof: here's the exact PDF and average damage absorbed by evade dice.

1 roll: [0.6250 0.3750] = 0.375 damage

2 rolls: [0.3906 0.4688 0.1406] = 0.750 damage

3 rolls: [0.2441 0.4395 0.2637 0.0527] = 1.125 damage

4 rolls: [0.1526 0.3662 0.3296 0.1318 0.0198] = 1.500 damage

Total damage mitigation:

naked Hull Upgrade Chewie C-3P0

1 roll: 0.375 1.375 2.375 1

2 rolls: 0.750 1.750 2.750 2

3 rolls: 1.125 2.125 3.125 3

4 rolls: 1.500 2.500 3.500 4

LOL. In that case, I retract my retraction!

You guys are hilarious.

Listed elsewhere on the forums:

Corran Horn + VI + R2-D2 +FCS

Airen Cracken + VI + Cluster Missiles

Tala + Concussion Missiles

Tala + Concussion Missiles

Corran and Cracken are at PS10 against Phantoms, and Corran makes an opportunity count when he gets it by double-tapping.

Against Falcons, you can line up the following dice attacks:

Corran (3 w/focus or TL)

Cracken (3 naked), pass TL to Tala

Cracken (3 naked), pass TL to Tala

Tala (4 focused with 1 blank turned to a hit)

Tala (4 focused with 1 blank turned to a hit)

Corran (3 w/TL)

That is 20 attack dice, 11 of them boosted by TL or focus, 9 at PS10, in 6 separate attacks in 1 round. It is like a 1 round super-swarm. The problem, of course, is getting all that in the right range at the right time. However, I think you could take the attacks on either the support ships or the Falcon and be alright, because that would wipe some ships off the board.

I'd like to just line up straight across from somebody and try it once, but I'm not ballsy enough. Someone else should and then let me know.

Still, the median result for three ships with 3 Attack hitting the Falcon for three rounds is 17 damage, and that means Threepio has to be working pretty hard to buy the Falcon an extra round of life even against a relatively weak list.

This is the interesting part, and is why I assumed everyone would gravitate to PtL + Engine Upgrade + Millennium Falcon, so you can boost out of most arcs and still have an evade token plus C-3P0. But overwhelmingly people have been taking and winning with Predator instead.

...this is what happens when you're in a hurry and you use ">" in a formula when you meant ">=".

It appears that your response was more rushed than my post. 1.25 is greater than 1. I said statistically average, so fractions apply. ">" is appropriate. Proof: here's the exact PDF and average damage absorbed by evade dice.

1 roll: [0.6250 0.3750] = 0.375 damage

2 rolls: [0.3906 0.4688 0.1406] = 0.750 damage

3 rolls: [0.2441 0.4395 0.2637 0.0527] = 1.125 damage

4 rolls: [0.1526 0.3662 0.3296 0.1318 0.0198] = 1.500 damage

Total damage mitigation:

naked Hull Upgrade Chewie C-3P0

1 roll: 0.375 1.375 2.375 1

2 rolls: 0.750 1.750 2.750 2

3 rolls: 1.125 2.125 3.125 3

4 rolls: 1.500 2.500 3.500 4

LOL. In that case, I retract my retraction!

You guys are hilarious.

...this is what happens when you're in a hurry and you use ">" in a formula when you meant ">=".

It appears that your response was more rushed than my post. 1.25 is greater than 1. I said statistically average, so fractions apply. ">" is appropriate. Proof: here's the exact PDF and average damage absorbed by evade dice.

1 roll: [0.6250 0.3750] = 0.375 damage

2 rolls: [0.3906 0.4688 0.1406] = 0.750 damage

3 rolls: [0.2441 0.4395 0.2637 0.0527] = 1.125 damage

4 rolls: [0.1526 0.3662 0.3296 0.1318 0.0198] = 1.500 damage

Total damage mitigation:

naked Hull Upgrade Chewie C-3P0

1 roll: 0.375 1.375 2.375 1

2 rolls: 0.750 1.750 2.750 2

3 rolls: 1.125 2.125 3.125 3

4 rolls: 1.500 2.500 3.500 4

LOL. In that case, I retract my retraction!

You guys are hilarious.

SHOTS FIRED, ROLL ATTACK DICE!!

Still, the median result for three ships with 3 Attack hitting the Falcon for three rounds is 17 damage, and that means Threepio has to be working pretty hard to buy the Falcon an extra round of life even against a relatively weak list.

This is the interesting part, and is why I assumed everyone would gravitate to PtL + Engine Upgrade + Millennium Falcon, so you can boost out of most arcs and still have an evade token plus C-3P0. But overwhelmingly people have been taking and winning with Predator instead.

I like PTL with the falcon when I have the title, but what Predator gives you is an action less re roll ability and no stress. Not having stress frees up your dial options. Also if you do get stressed or blocked, Predator C-3PO (no longer will I do C3-P0) will still work.

What would be a weak list in your mind?

"Weak list" is probably not the right way to describe it, but for convenience's sake I was modeling a list with 3 attacks per round at 3 dice each (and never better). Ditto a list with 6 attacks at 2 dice each, with no Howlrunner etc., and never approaching to Range 1.

Still, the median result for three ships with 3 Attack hitting the Falcon for three rounds is 17 damage, and that means Threepio has to be working pretty hard to buy the Falcon an extra round of life even against a relatively weak list.

This is the interesting part, and is why I assumed everyone would gravitate to PtL + Engine Upgrade + Millennium Falcon, so you can boost out of most arcs and still have an evade token plus C-3P0. But overwhelmingly people have been taking and winning with Predator instead.

Yeah, it puzzles me a bit too. My guess would have been that people would go with Han + PTL + Gunner + Threepio + Engine Upgrade + Falcon, and fill out the rest of the list with Z-95s. Han offers reliable pseudo-TL functionality, and is nicely reliable with Gunner, and in the mean time you have above-average defense with Threepio + evade and the option to arc-dodge (which, as I've discussed elsewhere, is IMO how you get your money's worth out of any ship with a turret).

Instead, people are minimizing their upgrades (e.g., I've seen mrfroggies' Predator + C-3PO run as the only upgrades on Han) and spending the points on the escorts.

...I need more table time, dammit. When I do get it, though, I want to test stuff that isn't just more Han + escorts.

What would be a weak list in your mind?

"Weak list" is probably not the right way to describe it, but for convenience's sake I was modeling a list with 3 attacks per round at 3 dice each (and never better). Ditto a list with 6 attacks at 2 dice each, with no Howlrunner etc., and never approaching to Range 1.

Still, the median result for three ships with 3 Attack hitting the Falcon for three rounds is 17 damage, and that means Threepio has to be working pretty hard to buy the Falcon an extra round of life even against a relatively weak list.

This is the interesting part, and is why I assumed everyone would gravitate to PtL + Engine Upgrade + Millennium Falcon, so you can boost out of most arcs and still have an evade token plus C-3P0. But overwhelmingly people have been taking and winning with Predator instead.

Yeah, it puzzles me a bit too. My guess would have been that people would go with Han + PTL + Gunner + Threepio + Engine Upgrade + Falcon, and fill out the rest of the list with Z-95s. Han offers reliable pseudo-TL functionality, and is nicely reliable with Gunner, and in the mean time you have above-average defense with Threepio + evade and the option to arc-dodge (which, as I've discussed elsewhere, is IMO how you get your money's worth out of any ship with a turret).

Instead, people are going minimalist (with, e.g., mrfroggies' Predator + C-3PO) and spending the points on the escorts.

...I need more table time, dammit. When I do get it, though, I want to test stuff that isn't just more Han + escorts.

to me the ability to evade/boost every turn makes him very difficult to lock down, even a two forward boost is crazy movement.

Still, the median result for three ships with 3 Attack hitting the Falcon for three rounds is 17 damage, and that means Threepio has to be working pretty hard to buy the Falcon an extra round of life even against a relatively weak list.

This is the interesting part, and is why I assumed everyone would gravitate to PtL + Engine Upgrade + Millennium Falcon, so you can boost out of most arcs and still have an evade token plus C-3P0. But overwhelmingly people have been taking and winning with Predator instead.

I like PTL with the falcon when I have the title, but what Predator gives you is an action less re roll ability and no stress. Not having stress frees up your dial options. Also if you do get stressed or blocked, Predator C-3PO (no longer will I do C3-P0) will still work.

Having the full dial anytime and still getting your full offensive/defensive output is what makes fat chewie work imho.

Having the full dial anytime and still getting your full offensive/defensive output is what makes fat chewie work imho.

I mean I like the full dial, but I tend to think of Engine and giving me more options maneuver wise than without it.

Having the full dial anytime and still getting your full offensive/defensive output is what makes fat chewie work imho.

I mean I like the full dial, but I tend to think of Engine and giving me more options maneuver wise than without it.

I run Chewie+Predator+Luke+C-3PO+EU+Falcon Title, so umm yeah I agree with that. BUT, I'll pass on PtL on this setup because of the dial options. A hard 1 turn and a boost on top of it can be better than an evade + focus token.

Having the full dial anytime and still getting your full offensive/defensive output is what makes fat chewie work imho.

I mean I like the full dial, but I tend to think of Engine and giving me more options maneuver wise than without it.

I run Chewie+Predator+Luke+C-3PO+EU+Falcon Title, so umm yeah I agree with that. BUT, I'll pass on PtL on this setup because of the dial options. A hard 1 turn and a boost on top of it can be better than an evade + focus token.

For those of you paying attention this is how you keep an open mind on the Internet.

Outstanding interview guys! Very nice work!

We appreciate it! I can't wait to release our next one. Been thinking about strong lists in today's Meta. Any good lists that can deal with a Falcon and Phantom well at the same time? (I've been thinking the Lambda is a great way to go here, but I always think that)

It's still theorycraft at this point, but I think double Ion Cannon Turrets qualify. Roark/Dutch or a pair of Gold Squadron Pilots make a nice base for a list, leaving you 48 or 54 points for the rest of your squad.

I've been pondering the other points here 3x chardaan a wings is a decent fit here.