49 minutes ago, Scott Pilgrim2 said:

If we are talking about 2.0 against a focused Vader - Wedge will still miss 20% of the time on three shots against them. Even ~7% of the time Wedge will miss 5 times in a row. That isn't statistically insignificant.

There is a big gap in understanding of statistics for most of the Xwing community. Most of us can wrap our heads around averages or "expected damage", but not around probabilities. Yes - on average a 4 dice attack should roll 2 hits. BUT almost 1/3 of the time it will roll 0 or 1. So stop acting shocked when that key range 1 attack whiffs. It's not average, but it's also not unlikely.

I think people also forget how many sets of dice we roll per game. It's probably 10-20 sets of attack dice and 10-20 sets of defence dice per game. So even when you get a 1 in 100 roll that happens, that's not surprising. It likely will happen one in every 3-4 games.

Do we actually feel comfortable saying we have the capacity to correctly judge our decisions based on logic and objective analysis? I'm not sure I do

So defaulting back to correlating decisions with results, provided there's enough data, doesn't seem like the worst idea. At the very least it's less prone to being completely and utterly wrong about how good your logic and objective analysis criteria are

Some people are just wondering how AA should be ruled because they're playing in an event this weekend and want to know if they should bring strikers.

1 hour ago, RStan said:

BUT BOBA GURI WON! *forum cry*

...even though there was a clear mistake at the end to not spend the focus on offense guaranteeing him the kill on Sai instead of the luck of the Direct Hit draw along with the mistake to not take an evade next to a rock that still would've allowed him to use Han gunner...

BUT THE 2 SHIP LIST STILL WON IN THE END! *forum cry*

...why do I bother...

There were plenty of mistakes in that game, by both sides, but neither of those were really mistakes. If there was a mistake it was Matt assuming he only needed one hit based on what it looked like on the other side of the table, instead of asking how much damage was on the shuttle. He purposefully didn't spend the focus because he thought all he needed was two hit/crit results. He also boosted because he didn't have arc on the shuttle, or at least wasn't sure, and guaranteeing a shot on the shuttle was a better play than trying to kill the striker.

Plus, even Matt has said on multiple podcasts (and I think even the interview at the end?) that 2-ship lists aren't the answer.

56 minutes ago, gennataos said:

Some people are just wondering how AA should be ruled because they're playing in an event this weekend and want to know if they should bring strikers.

AA should be ruled correctly, but knowing the correct ruling won't stop people from trying to twist it with tortured logic. See Nymranda.

12 minutes ago, Chumbalaya said:

AA should be ruled correctly, but knowing the correct ruling won't stop people from trying to twist it with tortured logic. See Nymranda.

I agree it should, but I don’t think there’s an agreement on that ruling. It’s ultimately up to individual TOs until there’s more clarity.

Back in the day people just used to email Frank about this crap. Just do that.

That way we can more properly watch yall argue about how "just cause frank said isn't the same thing as a rule clarification. "

1 hour ago, gennataos said:

I agree it should, but I don’t think there’s an agreement on that ruling. It’s ultimately up to individual TOs until there’s more clarity.

*Known 2.0 playtester and coruscant invitee winks at you with an answer*

2 hours ago, evcameron said:

There is a big gap in understanding of statistics for most of the Xwing community. Most of us can wrap our heads around averages or "expected damage", but not around probabilities. Yes - on average a 4 dice attack should roll 2 hits. BUT almost 1/3 of the time it will roll 0 or 1. So stop acting shocked when that key range 1 attack whiffs. It's not average, but it's also not unlikely.

I think people also forget how many sets of dice we roll per game. It's probably 10-20 sets of attack dice and 10-20 sets of defence dice per game. So even when you get a 1 in 100 roll that happens, that's not surprising. It likely will happen one in every 3-4 games.

Just do what I do. Make a list that double mods as many dice as possible and doesn't fly in formation.

Watch as people REEE about their dice.

no streams this weekend

2 hours ago, Tlfj200 said:

no streams this weekend

I can slap a go pro to my head and you can watch me misplay guri tomorrow

27 minutes ago, jagsba said:

I can slap a go pro to my head and you can watch me misplay guri tomorrow

10/10, would watch and commentate.

3 hours ago, Tlfj200 said:

no streams this weekend

We might have a stream at my event tomorrow, I’ll make sure to post the link here if we do

41 minutes ago, abell19 said:

We might have a stream at my event tomorrow, I’ll make sure to post the link here if we do

Everytime i see you post here i think its @Tlfj200 because he used to have that scorpion icon.

Also woooooo xwing is fun.

If there would be a premier extended tournament you care about tomorrow, what list would you bring?

I would probably go with Luke and 3 Bs

4 juke phantoms because I'm not ready to succumb to total power lists yet.

56 minutes ago, Velvetelvis said:

4 juke phantoms because I'm not ready to succumb to total power lists yet.

I lost to that yesterday on vassal. Was a bloodbath. Looks like a powerlist to my ptsd...

1 hour ago, Velvetelvis said:

4 juke phantoms because I'm not ready to succumb to total power lists yet.

What's a power list in 2.0 thought?

I think I’d still be on triple bounty hunter. It’s second edition format, but feels really good.

1 hour ago, AEIllingworth said:

I think I’d still be on triple bounty hunter. It’s second edition format, but feels really good.

I played against 2 bh and fenn rau a couple of time: bounty hunters are very tanky, but with just 3 ships with at most one modification, you are relaying a bit too much on luck to deal damage.

Despite that, it might be a solid list thought

Local tournament stream, starting at 11 at

Twitch.tv/archalliance

@Tlfj200

9 hours ago, abell19 said:

Local tournament stream, starting at 11 at

Twitch.tv/archalliance

@Tlfj200

Palob for President.

9 hours ago, abell19 said:

Local tournament stream, starting at 11 at

Twitch.tv/archalliance

@Tlfj200

Palob for President.

So good, you gotta day it twice, I guess.

9 hours ago, Sunitsa said:

I played against 2 bh and fenn rau a couple of time: bounty hunters are very tanky, but with just 3 ships with at most one modification, you are relaying a bit too much on luck to deal damage.

Despite that, it might be a solid list thought

Yeah, I have a (possibly flawed) idea that I should concentrate on defense, and if I last long enough the offense will take care of itself. I should try it with Fenn, but I am unpracticed enough that I can lose him early and not have enough to grind it out.

Thanks, Bear Bryant (this is a sports reference)

12 hours ago, Sunitsa said:

What's a power list in 2.0 thought?

Good point actually. I suppose there isn't any yet.

Let the jank train continue

I'm not ready to lose to the communities average bets for over/under.

A Fate Worse Than Death