Is the "strategic error" losing both sunset sea and ironman bay in the same turn ignoring a large ship buildup by both tyrell and lannister?

Seems hard to pull off (since they have to break sunset sea with 2 cross supports going on), unless the supply line was left deliberately weak. Still seems weird to me regardless. The turn limit usually is what keeps greyjoy from winning in the games i've played (mainly due to supply values not getting updated in the same turn that troops are mustered), since ties in castles get determined by supply then power stored up. Actually, something like that just seems like it would be telegraphed way too much since Tyrell starts really out of position for a move like that. While both parties would be sacrificing a fair bit of land power potential to make that work.

It just seems off. Even in a turn where march +1 and support orders can be played, to jump him suddenly with 2 sets of 3 boats with tyrell taking the lead and trying to knight of flowers the move forcing the issue to be addressed on pike the next turn, Greyjoy either has to not have access to the valyrian steel blade and crow's eye, or a defense +2 order and the valyrian steel blade, or crow's eye and a defense +2 order etc. (assuming boats steup ideally in a 2-1-2 formation for support + bridge). Failing that allows the potential for Greyjoy to counter in the following turn and push the boats out again preventing the siege (turn order dependent).

I completely understand them getting contained or pushed off the mainland, but losing pike just seems nearly a fantasy much in the same way Baratheon can troll folks trying to attack him from the sea with him just blowing off the first "real" attack with Salladhor and adjusting his strategy afterwards in the next turn. Avoiding Salladhor trolling is a many turns in advance war of attrition plan which in any other game would have meant an auto win by the player pulling off that gambit.

I think in the cases above the GJ player(s) was/were very new, there is a wide variety of game experience on Vassal.

I think it is clear that a Lanister player will have his hands full trying to beat back a determined GJ attack.

However, what if Lanister is the aggressor ?

Turn 1

CP* - Lanisport

M+1 - Golden sound

M+0 - Stoney

Attack Ironmans bay with Ship from GS. Use Jamie or Cerci. This will result in defeat, but will force GJ to use 1 or 2 house cards. 2 cards if Aeron is used.

If GJ proceeds to take river run, attack from Stoney Sept and use The hound. (Another GJ card gone)

CP* Muster

If ship is alive - > add Siege

If ship is dead - > ship in GS and upgrade FM to Siege.

Turn 2 (no Mustering)

M+1 - Lanisport

S+1 - Stoney

Raid - GS

Raid GJ support in Ironmans or change to Def +1

At this point Lanister should be able to take River Run with no problem and possibly use Gregor for massive casualties.

I think it is clear that a Lanister player will have his hands full trying to beat back a determined GJ attack.

However, what if Lanister is the aggressor ?

Turn 1

CP* - Lanisport

M+1 - Golden sound

M+0 - Stoney

Attack Ironmans bay with Ship from GS. Use Jamie or Cerci. This will result in defeat, but will force GJ to use 1 or 2 house cards. 2 cards if Aeron is used.

If GJ proceeds to take river run, attack from Stoney Sept and use The hound. (Another GJ card gone)

CP* Muster

If ship is alive - > add Siege

If ship is dead - > ship in GS and upgrade FM to Siege.

Turn 2 (no Mustering)

M+1 - Lanisport

S+1 - Stoney

Raid - GS

Raid GJ support in Ironmans or change to Def +1

At this point Lanister should be able to take River Run with no problem and possibly use Gregor for massive casualties.

The point is that nothing really prevents GJ from taking Riverrun on turn 1.

There's a high possibility that after you reclaim Riverrun with the siege on turn 2 GJ will counter attack with Balon GJ card onto Riverrun with 99% chance of reclaiming it back and destroying the siege, which will be huge. Way better is to try Marching from Stoney and Supporting from Lannisport. That will give you more combat strength during defence of Riverrun.

Though siege is bad imo.

Nice option would be mustering a ship in port (if the initial ship has survived) + a footman, which will give you a chance to use sir Kevan to beat Balon card.

Well, there's also a chance that after reclaiming Riverrun with siege you will use Sersei and remove the possible counterattack March order, but GJ got 2 of them anyway.

To be honest GJ vs Lannister depends purely on Westeros card in case if players are equally good.

*update:

There's also an option of putting 3 March orders in order to group your land units and fight for Riverrun with Ser Kevan after GJ uses all of March orders. This may allow you to attack Seaguard on the next turn, if there will be no Clash of Kings.

(This scenario leaves you vulnerable to sea attack on 1st turn though. Also depending on how much army will you need to take Riverrun, you may need to leave Lannisport with all the armies so you wont be able to Muster - then just pray for Mustering Westeros card).

I see your point about the Siege and using Kevan, however Balon may have already been played. What is mustered with CP* is dependent upon what cards GJ has played.

The point of this tactic is to get GJ to play cards. It is possible for GJ to have played 4 cards by the end of the first turn. Lani will have only played 3.

Example - This is what I consider Best Case for GJ

Turn 1:

Lanister

• CP* - Lanisport
• M+1 - Golden sound
• M+0 - Stoney

GJ

• CP - Port
• CP - Greywater
• M-1 - Pyke
• M+0 - Ironmans

Ship Combat: GS + 1 > Iornmans

• 2 v 1
• Lanister use Jamie
• GJ use Areon > change to theon
• 4 v 3 + 1(sword) = 4v4
• retreat to GS

Assume GJ moves Kn and FM to riverrun

Stoney Sept:

• 1 v 3
• Lanister > The hound
• GJ > Asha
• 3 v 3
• Retreat no casualties

Ironmans > GS

• 0 v 1
• Lanister > Cersei
• GJ > Dagmar
• 0 v 2
• Ship destroyed

CP*

• Ship in Lanisport-port
• FM in Lanisport

End of turn 1 Card status

• GJ - used, Areon, Theon, Asha and Dagmar
• Lani - used, Cersei, Jamie, Hound

A lot can happen here with westeros cards. I will not go into every possibility

Clash - GJ will likely want to keep the blade. Lanister wants to stay ahead on IT and have star orders. Both have 5 PT

Muster

• Lanister - upgrade FM to Siege and FM to Kn
• GJ - Riverrun add KN, Ship to Ironmans, FM to Pyke

Turn 2 - There are quite a few possibilities here. I will give a likely scenario

Lanister

• S+1 - Stoney Sept
• M+1 - Lanisport
• Raid or CP - port (use raven to change)

GJ

• D+1 - River Run
• S+0 - Ironmans
• S+0 - GS
• M+0 - Greywater
• CP - Pyke
• CP - Port of Pyke

Lansiport > Riverrun

• Lanister power = base 8 + march 1+ support 2 = 11
• GJ power = base 5 + Def 1 + support 1 = 7
• Lanister - Gregor
• GJ - doesnt matter - event with sword
• All GJ units dead

GJ would then take seagard

I'm not going to continue but here are a few thoughts

Greyjoy has two cards left and has just suffered major casualties. Lanister still has Kevan, Tywin and Tyrion left. Tyrion should be used on GJ's last card to prevent hand reset. This is even better for lanister if no muster had come up.

That being said, GJ holds an advantage at sea that will be hard to break. If Lanister sees march in ironmans on first turn he could respond by changing GS to Def+2 and marching stoney to harrenhall.

I think this would take most GJ Players by surprise since it is very unusual and if GJ makes mistakes in this it could be very bad.

Thoughts?

First of all I am not sure whether you play with Tides of Battle Cards. Their appearance really demolishes any strategy, based on math and calculations.

Even if we assume we don't use them:

• I guarantee that if you engage on Ironman's Bay GJ will put a card with a sword. It either forces a Hound Card, which leaves you helpless further on or kills a ship. I wouldn't hesitate to put Euron (+4). It leaves you a possibility to use a sword in the upcoming match for Riverrun, also it helps you win in case if Lannister places Tywin (just use sword here).
• The good option would be to use march orders on ship in port (March -1) and on Pyke (March +0). So after Ironman's Bay was engaged on, you just move ship to Ironman's Bay and wait.
• At this point it doesn't matter whether Lannister takes Riverrun, GJ moves FM to Riverrun and Knight to Seaguard. Since he got a sword left - GJ doesn't need to use a strong card.
• If we assume that there was no clash of kings card resolved, the next turn for GJ is quite easy: March -1 on to Ironman's Bay and March +0 on Seaguard. Raid Order for Riverrun.
• Lannister must have mustered at least one ship. So now he had total strength of 6 in Lannisport (if he mustered FM + ship) and 1 elsewhere.
• GJ doesn't care if Lannister attacks Riverrun of the next turn. If Lannister marches from Lannisport to take Riverrun, GJ will invade Golden and takes Lannisport with Knight, Balon. There is no point using Balon earlier. And Victorian GJ is enough to win sea battle. If Lannister doesn't move from Lannisport, GJ will take Flint's finger and just repeat the March order +0 on the knight. Sheep can now support in Ironman's Bay and Mustering card will be disaster. (If it didn't come on 1st turn, which would mean a disaster even earlier).

If Lannister musters first turn and GJ takes Riverrun then I would think you go something like - Hound retreats Riverrun FM to Sept. Muster SH in port, FM > SE.

The on the second turn you *support on FM on Sept, support on SH in Port. *Move from Lannisport and retake Riverrun with Mountain (6+1 from move + 2 from *support, before card) and destroy GJ troops there. Then GJ needs somehow attack the Sound, where Lannister is *defending supported from the port (1+2+1, before card), then follow up to attack Lannisport (2+1+2, before card - or 2+2+2 if they didn't kill the ship in the sound).

Quick calculations, but I just don't see how GJ comes out anywhere near ahead. They burn all their good characters, lose units, and still won't have much to show for it. The only way it doesn't ruin them entirely is if Muster somehow comes up to save them.

I read this whole topic so I ll just state few moves that Lannister MUST play to keep neck above water.

First of all - my group always gives Lannister player to the most experienced player (other houses are chosen randomly).

Second - we play with Tides of Battle cards (which means Greyjoy can t be sure to win in tie situation, or even if he has +1) and it helps Lannister a lot.

Third - Lannister BEST opening is:

1. mar+1 golden sound

2. mar+0 stoney sept

3. con (*) on lannisport

Fourth - look at the greyjoy moves :

A) if he played march order on ironmans bay and on port of pyke (on both ships he has) he will probably attack golden sound (other option is move for sunset sea) - in this scenario Lannister attacks his ship in Ironman s bay as a 1. move - and plays Jaime (strenght 2 - which gives him 2+2 - 4 strenght vs greyjoy 1) - greyjoy plays Blade (1+1) and has to use a good card to win (Balon, Victarion or Euron) - the worst choice for Lannister is if he play Euron (has a sword) but Lannister could draw Fortification icon or Skull icon on ToB cards and save his ship or kill greyjoy (he MUST try - this move is essential).

If Lannister wins - he controls Ironman s bay and Greyjoy can t move his land units around (then greyjoy attacks with 1 ship from port of pyke - march-1 - attacks 1 lanni ship - lanni plays tyrion and makes Greyjoy uses his second strong card) - Greyjoy CAN T afford this to happen - he will play strong card on first Lanni attack (on Ironman s bay).

If lannister loses battle (but saves the ship) - retreat and next turn attack with 3 ships (muster 2 from lannisport) - in this case greyjoy moved to sunset sea.

If Lannister loses battle (and the ship) - if greyjoy marches to Golden sound and to Ironmans bay (moves his 2 ships) - Lannister takes Riverrun without battle.

B) if greyjoy played only 1 march order on ship (ironman s bay) and march on pyke - then Lanni plays same opening as mentioned above. If greyjoy moves for riverrun (land units from pyke) - attack him from Stoney sept with FT and play The Hound (2 + 2 Fortification icons) - Greyjoy MUST play second strong card to win - if Lanni loses battle - withdraw to harrenhal.

C) If greyjoy plays anything else on Ship in Ironmans Bay - take Sunset sea with your ship and then place 2 ships in golden sound (cons *) - N.B. if greyjoy takes Riverrun attack him from stoney sept - withdraw to harrenhal - Con (*) - place 1 ship in Golden sound and upgrade your FT into Siege engine.

CONCLUSION - in every of this scenarios Greyjoy HAS to use 2 of his strong cards to keep or win vital areas (in 2nd turn he will miss 2 of these cards - Balon, Victarion and Euron - and you will have Tywin and Clegane).

If Clash of Kings appears - you make sure you bet more on Iron throne then Greyjoy - that s a MUST - betting 2-3 tokens will be just enough (maybe you even get the throne). N.B. when clash occurs Greyjoy always goes for Blade (he wants to keep it) or for the Raven (he wants more special orders).

You keep playing before him (have 2 castles - Lannisport and Harrenhal, or Lannisport and Riverrun if lucky and wait for mustering) - 2nd important thing - Greyjoy will control only Ironmans Bay or he MIGHT have another sea BUT then he will have only Pyke (of castles) and that rarely happens.

If Greyjoy has 2 or more castles you will have Sunset sea - or opened way for Ironman s bay.

I played several times as Lannister (I am most experienced player XD) - and this Tactic really works - adds a element of surprise becouse Greyjoy isn t used to defensive position, especially againt Lannister.

Good luck guys, and have fun with Lannisters.

@Yossarian00 I'm not sure how you 'withdraw' to Harrenhal after losing a battle with forces from Stoney Sept. According to p.21, defeated attackers must retreat to their area of origin.

@abm Cersei is not nearly as useful as Patchface, Doran or Aeron, but she can be handy in the later game when players have built up strong armies in unraidable support bases. Attack some secondary target with a superior force and/or support from an ally, and you can use the cheap win to pop the support order that forms the lynchpin of his defense (this is often done in concert with Martell agains Baratheon). If he stops you by playing a Strength-4 card, you at least drew out a top card with Cersei. Still a win. Tyrion is of little value when your opponent's hand is nearly full, but if he's used a couple of his strong cards, the Imp's power becomes more useful. Mostly, though, he's another stalemate-breaker: when you and your allies have the numerical advantage but the enemy is holding you at bay with the threat of one special card (like Doran), the Imp nixes his ploy. As for Kevan, I agree that there's not much sense in amassing a horde of footmen just to get a big bonus from Kevan (one fight in seven, if he isn't neutralized). Still, he's a strength-1 character who is effectively strength-3 if you ever launch an attack that involves 2 footmen (not uncommon), and every now and then he'll be strength-4 (since having 3 footmen involved in a battle sometimes happens). That's not bad.

@cadleo Yes, Jaime is an engaging POV character, but nothing in the books indicates that he is a military prodigy. He fought a whopping three battles in his life (as a leader); he demonstrated that a) he is consistently aggressive, and b) he's better at generalship than Edmure Tully but worse than Robb Stark. Edmure unwisely dispersed his defensive units and Jaime went through them "like an axe through ripe cheese", the Robb set a trap and Jaime, true to form, swallowed the bait and rode right into it. Strength 2 plus a sword seem like a very fair assessment of Jaime's proven military record: strong on offense, competent at exploiting weaknesses, but impatient and gullible. As for Gregor: name me a single time that the Mountin won a victory and didn't inflict horrible slaughter on his beaten foes. If anyone merits three swords, it's him. As for his Strength of 3, I admit that that seemed high to me at first, but consider that that is the combined value of his military ability and the power of his dreadful reputation on friend and foe alike.

bump for the 30% chance to kill lannister on first move 2nd turn