5 hours ago, Hoarder of Garlic Bread said:

What about Origins? Can't make Adepticon this year but have Origins plans.

No sir.

9 hours ago, theBitterFig said:

What's the context for this?

Kylo + Holo passing an evade

7 hours ago, Hoarder of Garlic Bread said:

What about Origins? Can't make Adepticon this year but have Origins plans.

i just found out Origins is a system open - that window of time is wide open for me, so I plan to make it.

17 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

i just found out Origins is a system open - that window of time is wide open for me, so I plan to make it.

Kylo with a Holo evade jousts an entire 8ship CIS swarm and lands at range 2 in every arc:

Expected Total Hits: 1.541

Kylo with a Holo evade gets blocked by a T70 at range 2 of three other T70s:

Expected Total Hits: 1.402

Fenn + 3 Zealots has a Zealot block a jousting Kylo with a Holo evade, while 2 other Zealots take focused range 2 shots and Fenn boosts into range 1 with focus, but one of the Zealots is obstructed by a gas cloud:

Expected Total Hits: 2.025

8 minutes ago, svelok said:

Kylo with a Holo evade jousts an entire 8ship CIS swarm and lands at range 2 in every arc:

Expected Total Hits: 1.541

Kylo with a Holo evade gets blocked by a T70 at range 2 of three other T70s:

Expected Total Hits: 1.402

Fenn + 3 Zealots has a Zealot block a jousting Kylo with a Holo evade, while 2 other Zealots take focused range 2 shots and Fenn boosts into range 1 with focus, but one of the Zealots is obstructed by a gas cloud:

Expected Total Hits: 2.025

Green Dice don’t really care about your expected results though.

2 minutes ago, svelok said:

Kylo with a Holo evade jousts an entire 8ship CIS swarm and lands at range 2 in every arc:

Expected Total Hits: 1.541

Kylo with a Holo evade gets blocked by a T70 at range 2 of three other T70s:

Expected Total Hits: 1.402

Fenn + 3 Zealots has a Zealot block a jousting Kylo with a Holo evade, while 2 other Zealots take focused range 2 shots and Fenn boosts into range 1 with focus, but one of the Zealots is obstructed by a gas cloud:

Expected Total Hits: 2.025

[This Is Fine.]

With the math on how Evades work, isn't it also:

• No-Holo Kylo vs CIS Swarm: 2.541 hits
• No-Holo Blocked Kylo vs 2 T70s: 2.402 hits
• No-Holo Kylo vs elaborate Fenn/Zealouts scenario: 3.025 hits
  • Technically, slightly lower than each of those, since an Evade token can, in some remote chances, go wasted.

All Holo does is save one hit.

Don't get me wrong, saving a hit is good. A lot of these are probably the difference between a half-points Kylo and not, and Kylo was already quite good, and probably just needed a nudge to go over the top. And Holo is probably a solid piece in his own right without doing support, able to dodge fairly well, and really mobile and flexible. And a lot of the time it'll come down to Kylo against something like a pair of 2-dice Advanced Optics shots, and it goes from like a 50% chance of no damage normally to around an 85% chance of no damage.

OK, so I've talked myself into "This Is Still Fine."

1 hour ago, Tlfj200 said:

i just found out Origins is a system open - that window of time is wide open for me, so I plan to make it.

hopefully i'll see you there! I plan to try and judge

6 minutes ago, FlyingAnchors said:

Green Dice don’t really care about your expected results though.

You're right, half the time Kylo will take less damage than even that!

One in three jousts, Kylo can land in all 8 CIS firing arcs and take zero damage!

1 minute ago, svelok said:

You're right, half the time Kylo will take less damage than even that!

One in three jousts, Kylo can land in all 8 CIS firing arcs and take zero damage!

He's good at dodging

1 minute ago, svelok said:

You're right, half the time Kylo will take less damage than even that!

One in three jousts, Kylo can land in all 8 CIS firing arcs and take zero damage!

Any damage I do shooting at Kylo in a joust is a bonus, it's all about the Discord Missiles

30 minutes ago, svelok said:

You're right, half the time Kylo will take less damage than even that!

One in three jousts, Kylo can land in all 8 CIS firing arcs and take zero damage!

True... except, why would they shoot someone else?

i mUsT sHoOt tHiS 3 fOrCe eVaDe 3 aGiLitY sHiP iN fRoNt oF mE! iGnOrE hIs fRiEnDs!

21 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

@Sunitsa

By dominate I mean what is given as secondary bullet point. The specific numbers are 100% not the best cut offs, but they are a start for discussion.

And I just checked my top51 back in May 2019 to correct my gut feeling for diverse/mess. What I don't consider to be a mess:

What I'd count as "mess":

• Few lists dominate cuts
  • up to 5 lists have a cut conversion rate of 2xbase conversion. For example, if 20% make cut then 40% is seen as dominating. Taking that list doubles your chance to make cut.
• Few lists/ship combinations dominate the field
  • less than 20 ship combinations that were played 4x or more often make up more than 66% of lists (swiss and/or cut?)
• A single playstyle (maybe two) dominate
  • maybe more lists, but all with the same playstyle. Efficiency spam, aces, swarm, control, 2ship lists
• Two factions dominate
  • more than 50% of cut factions are from 2 factions.
• Few pilots dominate
  • more than 40% of lists in a faction have a certain pilot (note that this was the case for Wedge, Lulo, Kylo, Anakin. And they definitely dominated their factions).
• As consequence, listbuilding is a large part in determining the outcome

Thoughts? Do these qualify as dominating or do they seem too/not enough strict?
Just as reminder, GhostFenn was at around 15% of the field two years ago and considered to be everywhere.

I think I'll straight up offer you a beer anyway, you out much more thoughts than me into this, you deserve it ahahah.

I want to clarify that mine isn't a numerical concern, but a power level one. I don't think there will be that many Bobas or fenns, at least not at the first big HS event, but I think they start almost every game already above their opponent with good peace for the boom owl's mantra that HS can't be win on list building.

What I'm not sure if Boba fenn tier is exclusively theirs, I believe separatists might be also fit there, but according to Travis and others in this thread it might not be the case. I don't have enough direct experience to fully commit on them too thought.

I don't even think ghost fenn meta is a good comparison: ghost fenn was the most common list but was far from being the best since there were plenty of stuff that hard countered it.

I think a better example would be jump masters golden age where they were by far the best archetype of the meta and its counter was just jump masters with a deeper bid.

Anyway you will recognize at Milton keys because I will be a bald guy with a hat and a beard in black hoodie with my team insignia, spaceducks, on it. Come to say hi!

1 hour ago, svelok said:

Kylo with a Holo evade jousts an entire 8ship CIS swarm and lands at range 2 in every arc:

Expected Total Hits: 1.541

Kylo with a Holo evade gets blocked by a T70 at range 2 of three other T70s:

Expected Total Hits: 1.402

Fenn + 3 Zealots has a Zealot block a jousting Kylo with a Holo evade, while 2 other Zealots take focused range 2 shots and Fenn boosts into range 1 with focus, but one of the Zealots is obstructed by a gas cloud:

Expected Total Hits: 2.025

In principle. At my loss in the kit tourney this weekend, Kylo would joust one enemy at time with his TIE/D stack at R2-3 or perhaps focus behind a cloud, but still get hit by 3 dice attacks. Some days, you are just not going to dodge, ever. Yeah, that's outlier, and the only beef game of jousting a thing at a time that I've had trouble using Holo Kylo, but whenever possible, you still gotta dodge. We all have won and lost games on miracles, so the best play is reducing their likelihood.

Sure YOLO Ren seems like a legit trick (even back with stealth device you could make him a R3 focus trap for a TIE Swarm to sink shots while his friends flank), but the evade is a panic button/I6-proofing, not a technique that will yield consistent results. TIE/D's die to focus fire, so don't let focus fire happen.

31 minutes ago, Sunitsa said:

I think a better example would be jump masters golden age where they were by far the best archetype of the meta and its counter was just jump masters with a deeper bid.

Or Imperial aces...

Still, it was a limited meta and your point is understood. I don't believe Fett will dominate that much. He'll be good, definitely, possibly top list choice, but I don't think it'll be auto-wins against another competent player with a competently put together list.

I could be just as wrong, of course. Depending on whether my Fireball shows up today, my backup list is Fett/Fenn (and Sunny - yes, I know it's a weaker list with a "feels" pilot, but I hate two ship lists and this is casual night anyway.)

10 minutes ago, LagJanson said:

Or Imperial aces...

Still, it was a limited meta and your point is understood. I don't believe Fett will dominate that much. He'll be good, definitely, possibly top list choice, but I don't think it'll be auto-wins against another competent player with a competently put together list.

I could be just as wrong, of course. Depending on whether my Fireball shows up today, my backup list is Fett/Fenn (and Sunny - yes, I know it's a weaker list with a "feels" pilot, but I hate two ship lists and this is casual night anyway.)

Fett seems more like a gatekeeper than anything "your list must be at least this good to compete". He's also relatively simple to play at basic proficiency"Get in the other players grill, ?????/, profit", which is a good formula to make him common and a few really good players will get great value.

48 minutes ago, Sunitsa said:

I think I'll straight up offer you a beer anyway, you out much more thoughts than me into this, you deserve it ahahah.

You can't just be NICE! What are you? NICE?

48 minutes ago, Sunitsa said:

I believe separatists might be also fit there, but according to Travis and others in this thread it might not be the case. I don't have enough direct experience to fully commit on them too thought.

I suspect seps are quite fine in hyperspace... just far more "fair" than there extended cousins, which people haven't realized. But still quite good/fine. But people act like they're some sort of unstoppable juggernaut, and surprisingly no bellyrub does a lot to lower the powerlevel (by sheer removal of efficiency by forcing you to spend points in a more "fair" manner).

2 hours ago, svelok said:

Kylo with a Holo evade jousts an entire 8ship CIS swarm and lands at range 2 in every arc:

Expected Total Hits: 1.541

Kylo with a Holo evade gets blocked by a T70 at range 2 of three other T70s:

Expected Total Hits: 1.402

Fenn + 3 Zealots has a Zealot block a jousting Kylo with a Holo evade, while 2 other Zealots take focused range 2 shots and Fenn boosts into range 1 with focus, but one of the Zealots is obstructed by a gas cloud:

Expected Total Hits: 2.025

Can I join in on this?

If Kylo with focus lands R3 Gas cloud of 5x:

Expected Total Hits: 0.223

If Kylo takes 3 fully modded ProTorp shots obstructed by gas clouds:

Expected Total Hits: 1.752

If Kylo Arc dodges all of your ships:

Expected Total Hits: 0.000

If your focus/evaded Anakin lands R3 Gas Cloud of your opponents focused Rexler:

Expected Total Hits: 1.000

All of those without spending 54 (56 /w DD) points to support making bad decisions. Just bring gas clouds.

21 hours ago, gennataos said:

Warning: Fireball drinking game if you get paired with me at Adepticon.

Wouldn't the Fireball be a little chewy?

41 minutes ago, Smikies02 said:

If your focus/evaded Anakin lands R3 Gas Cloud of Travis Johnson's focused Rexler:

Expected Total Hits: 1.000

I'm in this picture and I don't like it.

3 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

I'm in this picture and I don't like it.

Shouldn't have name dropped. My apologies.

Was trying to give an example of Green Dice failing, against all odds.

1 hour ago, Tlfj200 said:

True... except, why would they shoot someone else?

i mUsT sHoOt tHiS 3 fOrCe eVaDe 3 aGiLitY sHiP iN fRoNt oF mE! iGnOrE hIs fRiEnDs!

Agreed. Shoot the Holo in this case.

40 minutes ago, MegaSilver said:

Wouldn't the Fireball be a little chewy?

No sir, this is a little Chewy.

2 hours ago, Tlfj200 said:

True... except, why would they shoot someone else?

i mUsT sHoOt tHiS 3 fOrCe eVaDe 3 aGiLitY sHiP iN fRoNt oF mE! iGnOrE hIs fRiEnDs!

ok so in fairness it's a new ship and thus I haven't played against enough people who really fully knew what I was doing with the list to be able to tell if your take is bad or not.

that being said in all of my games with the list I've had an initial engage where Kylo basically thonkjousts and Holo is sitting range 2 behind him, which means Holo is range 4 of all the enemy ships. then the choice my opponent has next turn is to either chase Kylo (which ends poorly) or let him flank them (which is usually even worse).

wave 4/5 avg ship count: 3.75

• Worlds: 3.99
• Grand Championships only: 3.73
• Extended only: 3.76
• Hyperspace only: 3.73

post-points avg ship count: 3.85

• LVO avg: 4.19
• too few events so far for format drill downs to be meaningful