When you roll 17 modded red dice into 3 green for 1 damage.

It's not your dice....

Also, we all play the same game*, if I want to have a valid opinion on a list without a million experiences with it, I'm **** well gonna have one.

*shhh, we do.

7 hours ago, jagsba said:

Red dice variance or green dice variance?

Red of the attacker, green of the defender. Many shots from player A means defending a lot for player B. And vice versa. That's why I don't think it is relevant to compare two lists within a game, because their number of rolled dice are connected.

It would be really cool to know the number of attacks per game, for different lists and list types. I had counted it at some point for my 5A and - big surprise - games with more attacks (on both sides!) usually went in my favor because 5A shifts the curve towards more paint. My argument is that games with fewer attacks are more susceptible to dice. That's why "muh dice" is a bit more justified for some lists than others. Of course, that's also a player choice. I know I rely on normal to hot reds when playing ReyPoe. And I rely on normal to hot greens when playing TripAces. It does not mean that I'm not also doing the usual mistakes to make "muh dice" the battle cry of the foolish. But there are situations where you did a lot right and some rare freak event happens. If you have a 99% chance to destroy a ship, that's the right call. If you don't and lose Soontir to the return shot, then it was still the right call**.

I'm not saying that dice matter more for the 2ship list than they do for their opponents of that game. I'm saying that 2ship lists make dice matter more in that game.

And in list form:

1. The fewer shots, the more relevant are outliers.
2. Lists with fewer ships have a lower maximum of shots per game.
3. Lists with fewer ships usually have the tools to dodge shots. As aces, they also tend to arc dodge without shooting back, also reducing their own number of effective shots. And they tend to be obligate* aces because they can't afford bad variance on their greens. That also results in fewer shots for their opponent.
4. Therefore, a list with fewer ships usually leads to a game with fewer shots and dice having a larger impact on the game,

*Excerpt from something I will eventually put out. I think it's a useful concept to apply here:

Quote

I want to make a quick dive into microbiology and borrow a concept from there. There are bacteria that can not survive with oxygen around, they need anaerobe conditions and are called “obligate anaerobes”. And then there are bacteria that can survive with oxygen but prefer not having any around giving them the name of “facultative anaerobes”. How does that relate to X-Wing and aces?

I argue that there are obligate aces and facultative aces. Like the following classifications of different aces, this is also a sliding scale and not a binary yes/no state. An obligate ace has to do ace-y things. What are ace-y things? Mainly arc dodging (maneuverability + repositioning), range control, and token stacking. Often with high initiative, but that is by no means a must.
[It then goes on to classify true aces, pocket aces, durable aces, heavy aces, and one where I haven't settled on a name yet]

**I had a game recently where Fenn nattied 3h2c (+1 direct) into a 3blank Corran, that's a 1% chance without the direct hit chance and ends the game right there. Those things happen, and they are more relevant in some games than in others.

1 hour ago, GreenDragoon said:

**I had a game recently where Fenn nattied 3h2c (+1 direct) into a 3blank Corran, that's a 1% chance without the direct hit chance and ends the game right there. Those things happen, and they are more relevant in some games than in others.

I've had a lot of situations like that. Doesn't have to be as natty either, 1b1f2h1c +reroll b into f, and a focus token will delete a lot of ships with Fenn Rau if they roll blanks on defense.

In my most recent game I left a tokenless Guri out on my left flank on round two, and my opponent saw that he could JUST barrel roll and boost Soontir into r3 and maybe get the bullseye, so he did, but missed the bullseye by half a centimeter. He shoots, rolls 1b1f1h, I roll 1b2f1e, I'm fine. I shoot, I roll 3h natty, he rolls 2f2b, and is gone.

7 minutes ago, Cerebrawl said:

I shoot, I roll 3h natty, he rolls 2f2b, and is gone.

That's a 2% chance. However, here's where "muh dice" applies in my opinion: Soontir is what I'd call an obligate ace. He does not want to trade shots, and definitely not without defensive tokens. So imo it applies that voluntarily putting him into the position is wrong. With Soontir, think about it this way: even if he had only taken 1 or 2 damage (combined 35% for all 3), that's pretty bad for him. You don't want to give up hull on Soontir for a pot shot at range 3 into a 3agility ship with 5 health. That's why "muh dice" is in my opinion deserved here - one in three times it was the wrong choice, and that's too high for me.

The reason I don't think it is the same for Corran in the situation above is that R2D2 allows him to even get back his points, and only a crit+direct hit finishes him (that's then 0.04%!). So if I get the chance to half Fenn and not give up points at a chance of 99.96%, then I think it was not completely wrong.

49 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:

That's a 2% chance.

1.9% (My natties are 12.5% assuming hit or crit is the same, him rolling 4 non-evades is 15.26%. 0.125*0.1526=0,019075). It's a lot less if crits are excluded, as well as if the result specifically has to be 2 blank, 2 focus, not just any 4 non-evade.

But yes, putting Soontir in a trading shots situation isn't advisable.

9 hours ago, Boom Owl said:

Obi-Wan Kenobi — Delta-7 Aethersprite	47
Delta-7B	19
Ship Total: 66

I figure you're implying something like "this is undercosted, so duh", but the font is so tiny, I can't be sure.

9 hours ago, Brunas said:

It's just that the people with the most investment into something aren't the best judges of things like fairness or difficulty.

I don't disagree, but if not them, who? The people who have an investment in proving it unfair or easy? Really, though, I wasn't really talking about fairness or anything like that...just "how does a list work" kind of angle.

5 hours ago, Cuz05 said:

Also, we all play the same game*, if I want to have a valid opinion on a list without a million experiences with it, I'm **** well gonna have one.

Opinions allowed, agreed! Define valid?

All I'm really trying to say is that all the math and movement maps in the world doesn't mean jack without someone speaking to them backed by experience. It's the same reason people suggest flying meta lists one would expect to face, to understand how it actually works. Going back to what originally triggered me, 2-ship lists I've played (mostly Rey/Poe and Boba/Fenn) can be wildly impacted by a single bad engagement. The same can be said for any list, but 2-ships that I've played feel it more acutely by the nature of their win conditions. So, when someone says "it wasn't your dice", I feel that's just a blanket statement that gets parroted around with little regard for context.

@gennataos

I just found it funny that 7b Obi costs 66 Points to order.

11 minutes ago, Cerebrawl said:

1.9% (My natties are 12.5% assuming hit or crit is the same, him rolling 4 non-evades is 15.26%. 0.125*0.1526=0,019075). It's a lot less if crits are excluded, as well as if the result specifically has to be 2 blank, 2 focus, not just any 4 non-evade.

Did you click the link? It's 0.019073486 if you want to go with a ridiculous amount of digits. Or a rounded 2%.

Just now, GreenDragoon said:

Did you click the link? It's 0.019073486 if you want to go with a ridiculous amount of digits. Or a rounded 2%.

I actually got it wrong first and had to correct myself, see the reason for edit. I entered the wrong values into a dice probability calculator.

Just now, Boom Owl said:

@gennataos

I just found it funny that 7b Obi costs 66 Points to order.

Your font is fixed! It's a Christmas miracle!

I don't care for out of faction comparisons, otherwise I'd point to 68 point naked Poe and say, "I agree". I do in faction comparisons, though, and see 7B Ahsoka is 64 and say, "I agree". She should at least be an I4 if Barriss is.

5 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:

Did you click the link? It's 0.019073486 if you want to go with a ridiculous amount of digits. Or a rounded 2%.

Why trust in an anthropogenic math calculator when you can reach the wrong result by yourself

1 hour ago, gennataos said:

Opinions allowed, agreed! Define valid?

Insert "I have spoken" meme here

Mary Chris-mas

2 hours ago, jagsba said:

Mary Chris-mas

Same team

Anyone else nervous about this hyperspace/OP article that's apparently coming tomorrow?

Isn't basically any change to Hyperspace bound to improve it? Worst case scenario it continues to be ignored?

16 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

Anyone else nervous about this hyperspace/OP article that's apparently coming tomorrow?

Yes

2 minutes ago, Transmogrifier said:

Isn't basically any change to Hyperspace bound to improve it? Worst case scenario it continues to be ignored?

Bold prediction.

14 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

Anyone else nervous about this hyperspace/OP article that's apparently coming tomorrow?

Yes. Also my Jan point change expectations are pretty low to.

26 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

Anyone else nervous about this hyperspace/OP article that's apparently coming tomorrow?

2 hours ago, Tlfj200 said:

Anyone else nervous about this hyperspace/OP article that's apparently coming tomorrow?

Why do we think it's coming tomorrow?

5 minutes ago, Ablazoned said:

Why do we think it's coming tomorrow?

4 minutes ago, Ablazoned said:

Why do we think it's coming tomorrow?

Because they told us on FB Decembee 6th. I cant link it on mobile.

I'm not sure we're actually getting details on the Hyperspace changes until the 9th when the points + Rules Reference update?

16 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

In that case, mild take-

we're getting a totally revamped hyperspace concept. By that, I mean what they had day 1- a small, curated list of ships and upgrades based around 2.0 releases. Not all pilots for included ships and maybe a handful of included ships haven't been rereleased.

Wild take-

Scenarios, obstacle scenarios, and/or different prices for hyperspace. They intend to steer the meta towards or away from certain mechanics, pilots, and upgrades.