Just now, Tlfj200 said:Assuming you shot the n1, instead of a fellow jedi or something... sure?
Man if those double unique bodyguards enable evade sharing like we all think...it's gon be gud.
Carolina Krayts is the best X-Wing podcast
20 minutes ago, clanofwolves said:If Juke does get priced out of use, the Phantom chassis might be at or above playable cost🤔
As I mentioned above, the next best imperial list was a Vader +3 PS3, so the chassis is not overcosted.
It’s comparably priced to the Xwing with an advantage in durability (especially 1v1 dog-fighting), significant advantages in maneuverability, and a consistent firepower advantage (even without Juke due to the free evade it can often use the focus for offense).
Edited by AlexW3 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:Assuming you shot the n1, instead of a fellow jedi or something... sure?
Even more decisions, even more interesting.
Just now, powersink said:Even more decisions, even more interesting.
I mean... okay, I guess. Not sure it's that interesting of a decision just because we all want juke for bad ships.
8 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:I mean... okay, I guess. Not sure it's that interesting of a decision just because we all want juke for bad ships.
Seems like it's the ships that are the problem. This seems like deadeye nerf pt2
18 minutes ago, SnooSnarry said:Look man, we know you want to fly ships that do whatever they want and get all the mods all for really cheap prices.
Um, yeah? But I never have.... and I’m without 2.0 on Imps anyway; mine are simply observations from across the mat. Juke makes Defenders good but too costly it appears (from across the mat) and it makes the Phantoms a solid ship worthy of tangling; without? I just don’t know, looks marginal (from across the mat) 😉
6 minutes ago, Hiemfire said:1 instance of Kanan, 1 of R2-D2 crew (both in Eide's list). 1 instance of Tac Officer. Leia makes up the rest of the crew taken in Rebel lists that made cut.
I mean for the points cost, she’s basically free. She really helps out the beefy rebel lists, and she probably just became more valuable with B-wings and A-wings legal in hyperspace. I doubt she stays at 2 in July. Minimum I could see her going to is 4; realistically I expect 6-9; and anything over 10 I think puts her back in the unplayable territory like she was before January. (I don’t remember what she was before the adjustment. 8? 10? 12?) of course they may bump her to something like 14 and drop another rebel crew down in price before rotating her out.
2 minutes ago, FlyingAnchors said:I mean for the points cost, she’s basically free. She really helps out the beefy rebel lists, and she probably just became more valuable with B-wings and A-wings legal in hyperspace. I doubt she stays at 2 in July. Minimum I could see her going to is 4; realistically I expect 6-9; and anything over 10 I think puts her back in the unplayable territory like she was before January. (I don’t remember what she was before the adjustment. 8? 10? 12?) of course they may bump her to something like 14 and drop another rebel crew down in price before rotating her out.
She and Lando both were 8 before the points adjustment. Above 4 (****, with as fickle as people can be increasing her to 3 might trip it) and she'll probably fall out of favor due to the "OMG FFG overnerfed!!" effect. In my opinion she's worth about 6.
So, hyperspace data from regionals:
Leia Crew:
Swiss - 62.5%
Cut: 74%
Tactical Officer (Rebels)
Swiss: 29.4%
Cut: 41.6%
9 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:So, hyperspace data from regionals:
Leia Crew:
Swiss - 62.5%Cut: 74%
Tactical Officer (Rebels)
Swiss: 29.4%Cut: 41.6%
I'm super lazy, but I assume there isn't a list with tactical officer that doesn't have leia.
Just now, powersink said:I'm super lazy, but I assume there isn't a list with tactical officer that doesn't have leia.
Oh, I agree, but Im more surprised that tac felt necessary. I guess so you can keep down stress for even moar leia.
26 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:Oh, I agree, but Im more surprised that tac felt necessary. I guess so you can keep down stress for even moar leia.
I think it shows mostly that rebels are so undercosted, specifically leia, that you have points to throw away and still have a winning squad. I mean tax officer helps, it’s nice, kinda like fcs or hate on vader, doesn’t need it but it’s nice, Rebels just have so many great options for a 4 ship list they can afford to just take tac Officer.
thats really as much of a tell tell sign of undercosting as huge bids
)12 minutes ago, TheOz said:I think it shows mostly that rebels are so undercosted, specifically leia, that you have points to throw away and still have a winning squad. I mean tax officer helps, it’s nice, kinda like fcs or hate on vader, doesn’t need it but it’s nice, Rebels just have so many great options for a 4 ship list they can afford to just take tac Officer.
thats really as much of a tell tell sign of undercosting as huge bids
Personally I think you have it backwards, we can just afford to take Leia, although It depends on how you want your U-wing to perform.
If your U-wing is a coordinate boat, you need tac officer. Leia is the extra bonus.
If your U-wing is a “joust me!” Boat, Leia is needed for the free action after the turnaround, and tac officer is that filler card for “just in case”.
9 minutes ago, Kieransi said:
Finally we have answers
1 hour ago, FlyingAnchors said:
If your U-wing is a coordinate boat, you need tac officer. Leia is the extra bonus.
wat
2 hours ago, Tlfj200 said:Oh, I agree, but Im more surprised that tac felt necessary. I guess so you can keep down stress for even moar leia.
Tac officer u wing was krayt cup mvp
3 hours ago, Tlfj200 said:Oh, I agree, but Im more surprised that tac felt necessary. I guess so you can keep down stress for even moar leia.
The U-Wing doesn't react well to stress.
6 hours ago, FlyingAnchors said:Personally I think you have it backwards, we can just afford to take Leia, although It depends on how you want your U-wing to perform.
If your U-wing is a coordinate boat, you need tac officer. Leia is the extra bonus.
If your U-wing is a “joust me!” Boat, Leia is needed for the free action after the turnaround, and tac officer is that filler card for “just in case”.
I hear you and I agree it super helps, white actions are better then red ones, especially on a ship without tons of blue maneuvers, and I’m not discrediting you or anyone taking it because it is useful and good, but if you were picking the most necessary pilots and upgrades...I’m sure you would just not take it if it meant a sacrifice to the key parts of your squad
like would you take tac Officer over leia on a u wing? Or tac Officer over a talent on one of your other ships
You see my best friend who plays is a rebel loyal player and I have been helping him squad build for several of our local tournaments and I can’t help but just see how many fantastic ways you can build 4 ship rebel right now, and that’s just in hyperspace. It’s like oh you want action efficiency, let’s do u wing with Dutch and Horton and graven or wedge...oh you want more double taps, maybe Dutch Horton and norra with a u wing, oh look you can fit rigged cargo too, how about Biggs and selfless on everything...and this was before b wings!
Just saying it feels like there are way more ways to count to 200 with rebel then any other faction, and see success
and I think that’s the point of what tlfj200 is trying to say, like wow a lot of people take it, even though it’s probably replaceable
So I've got a big and growing data set of matches organized like this:
Each match is one row.
The following columns are in each row: winner, loser, winner archetype, loser archetype, winner faction, loser faction.
I have compiled statistics like faction v faction win rate, faction and list popularity, etc. One thing I want to do is get a measure of the relative contribution of player, faction, and archetype to win/loss likelihood (and factoring in the opponent and opposing list, faction). I use statistics all the time in my job, but it's usually basic DOE, general linear models, regressions, f-tests, etc. But those don't apply as-is because of how the data is structured. I could look up the best methods but if someone here already knows what I'm looking for that would be great!
Edited by Ablazoned4 minutes ago, Ablazoned said:So I've got a big and growing data set of matches organized like this:
Each match is one row.
The following columns are in each row: winner, loser, winner archetype, loser archetype, winner faction, loser faction.
I have compiled statistics like faction v faction win rate, faction and list popularity, etc. One thing I want to do is get a measure of the relative contribution of player, faction, and archetype to win/loss likelihood (and factoring in the opponent and opposing list, faction). I use statistics all the time in my job, but it's usually basic DOE, general linear models, regressions, f-tests, etc. But those don't apply as-is because of how the data is structured. I could look up the best methods but if someone here already knows what I'm looking for that would be great!
I always love to see data and statistics, give us!
2 minutes ago, Sunitsa said:I always love to see data and statistics, give us!
Unfortunately it's for our league and local tournies, and thus contains names of people. I'm unwilling to just dump all that out into cyberspace. We're a couple weeks into the league now and when it's over I intend to put the compiled stats out there, redacted for names.
I havent looked at the entire Adepticon Hyperspace Qualifier swiss yet but...
Adepticon Qualifier
-
6-0
-
PAAX
-
PAAA
-
Wolffe Sinker Torrent Torrent Torrent ( 2x 7th Gunner )
-
BBUYY
-
-
5-1
-
Luke Wedge Biggs
-
Howl/Iden Swarm
-
Wat + 7 ESC Vultures
-
7b Obi + Arc + Arc + Arc
-
Vader + Howl Crack Mini
-
Pava Bastian X X
-
Han Boba L337
-
Biggs Thane Wedge X
-
Kylo Tavson Starkiller
-
AAAAA
-
Greivous Wat VVVV
-
Interesting to see that no one really gave Tie Bombers or Tie Interceptors a good run.
Also find it funny that Republic Beef and Rebel Beef are both good, and that 7b Jedi are obviously ok.
Separatists may have some options but other factions maybe do what they thematically do about as well or better?
Chaos meta looks good on Hyperspace, even if it somewhat boils down to undercosted high init things (Resistance) still rising to the top.
Edited by Boom Owl7 minutes ago, Boom Owl said:I havent looked at the entire Adepticon Hyperspace Qualifier swiss yet but...
Adepticon Qualifier
6-0
PAAX
PAAA
Wolffe Sinker Torrent Torrent Torrent ( 2x 7th Gunner )
BBUYY
5-1
Luke Wedge Biggs
Howl/Iden Swarm
Wat + 7 ESC Vultures
7b Obi + Arc + Arc + Arc
Vader + Howl Crack Mini
Pava Bastian X X
Han Boba L337
Biggs Thane Wedge X
Kylo Tavson Starkiller
AAAAA
Greivous Wat VVVV
Interesting to see that no one really gave Tie Bombers or Tie Interceptors a good run.
I played the Sabers in the Hyperspace Trial. Round 1 I was matched up with Resistance I5s, lost an Interceptor at Range 3 to shots from Tallie and Ello, and never could quite get back in the game. I 0-1 dropped and just relaxed the rest of the day.
Juke is just so bad apart from Phantoms.
I guess there's a marginal theoretical benefit to high init ships who can get both offensive and defensive bonuses out of it, but in general it's really bad. I remember running through the calculator the math for a mini TIE Swarm. The damage was lower but pretty close to the same with Howl + 3x Juke Black as Howl + 4x Academy, but with so much more potential to go wrong--and this is presuming no focus to spend (so Hotshot Gunner was baked in). Fly into a Luke (well, maybe ANY force user), and get completely hosed. Bump your ships, and get completely hosed. Spend your Evade to not-die (on most Juke ships, you'll have the green dice to get use out of defensive focus), and get completely hosed.
So this is why I support Variable pricing on Juke. Not because it's almost good--it isn't it's bad--but because it's too much of a trap. It's too easy to get completely hosed, with very little benefit if you execute perfectly. Juke synergies are cool and fun looking, but really really mathematically bad. So doesn't this mean it's fine to price it absurdly high? No. Because people will still build the lists, and those lists will be even worse. I don't really like the term "Noob Trap" since it's kinda rude and dismissive, but if it applies to any kind of list, it's Juke lists. Variable pricing on Juke would be ideal, despite the awkwardness, because if someone falls for the trick, falls for the Juke-Trap, their list is already bad, but adding 8 point Jukes to that is just too much.
//
My first thoughts towards a variable points cost: 2 points on most things, maybe 5 points on N-1 Naboo Fighters (I'm guessing they don't have a Talent generic) since they only have 2 red dice, and 8 points on Phantoms and Defenders. 3/6/9 would also work, or 3/5/7.
I'd also hope the Sigma stays at 50-Trick Shot Price, since I think flying 4x Sigmas with Trick Shot would be fun, but there's no reason to do so while you can fit in this many Jukes.