UPDATE (11/3&4/2017) : "Anniversary Week" is in the books, and there's no better way to go out than with an overview and build archetype for everyone's favorite wookiee (actually, is that still true?), Gaarkhan! Thanks to all the readers who have made the last year so worth-while. I hope it's been informative and maybe even a little enjoyable, and look forward to more discoveries to come.

• "Anniversary Week" concludes by bringing this thread full-circle, with a two-part overview and build archetype for everyone's favorite melee furball HERO , Gaarkhan!
• If you missed our first post dedicated to IP CLASS DECKS and the imperial players we've been torturing with our highly-optimized melee weapons, our first write-up on Subversive Tactics is now available here !
• If you missed our return to our flagship series on CAMPAIGN MELEE WEAPONS , with another look at the Tier II Focusing Beam from "Heart of the Empire," this time on two-mod weapons (the Tier I Vibrosword and Tier II BD-1 ), it's available here !
• If you missed our launch post on CAMPAIGN RANGED WEAPONS (by popular demand), it's available here !
• If you missed our first TWO inaugural posts of our new SKIRMISH series, "Path to Destruction," you can find those here and here .

If you wandered into this thread out of curiosity (or by mistake), this thread is about numbers. More accurately, probabilities. And specifically combat probabilities: damage probabilities, surge probabilities, accuracy probabilities, defensive probabilities, condition probabilities, win probabilities, wound probabilities... basically ad nauseam probabilities. If that's not of interest to you, you prefer casual/fast/unpredictable gaming, math is overrated, etc., then you may not enjoy this. Or maybe you will...

• "The Galaxy's Fate in My Hand": Campaign Melee Weapon Series Landing Page
• "The Galaxy's Fate in My Hand": Campaign Ranged Weapon Series Landing Page
• "Path to Destruction": Skirmish Series Landing Page
• "Forces of Terror": Imperial Class Deck Series Landing Page

Recent Updates:

• Episode II: " We're more than just bucket-heads... " (10/30/2017) [Tier 2 Empire: Stormtrooper, Snowtrooper, Jet Trooper, Riot Trooper]
• Episode I: " Excuse me, Lord Vader... " (10/30/2017) [Tier 2 Empire: Imperial Officer]

Skirmish Series (last updated 10/30/2017)

Recent Updates:

• Subversive Tactics (11/2/2017)

Imperial Class Deck Series (last updated 11/2/2017)

Recent Updates:

• Gaarkhan: "The Brawler" (11/4/2017) [Rampage, Unstoppable, Brutal Cleave, Wookiee Fortitude]
• Gaarkhan : The Basics (11/3/2017)

Campaign Hero Series (last updated 11/4/2017)

What is this? Doesn't look like a game anymore.

It's maths, and me likey.

More please

I need to set aside a week to read this thoroughly, but it'll be time well spent.

Dude .... this is amazing!

The only thing I haven't found yet are the campaign books (for obvious reasons)

Yes. I deliberately do not upload the campaign guides and do not embedd any ads. This is part of how I view handling content of the game on the internet and is not going to change in the forseeably future.

The only thing I haven't found yet are the campaign books (for obvious reasons)

Yes. I deliberately do not upload the campaign guides and do not embedd any ads. This is part of how I view handling content of the game on the internet and is not going to change in the forseeably future.

Makes perfect sense! Definitely appreciate all the content you do host, as it's much more convenient than rummaging thru my game box :-P

This is a fantastic analysis! As we can see on the dodge thread, there are lots of people with opinions on effectiveness of various dice and abilities. However, I've felt for a long time that hard facts are often lacking in these discussions.

Good job!

One thing to consider about the Vibrosword is that the Blue/Green dice will be very helpful against the Black Ops class deck, so it might be a more specialized weapon for certain circumstances, but maybe not worth it in average cases because of the increased cost. What I'm especially interested in seeing is how much better, compared to other weapons, it will be when you start adding upgrades, which is where I think you're going next, considering the "spoiler"

One thing to consider about the Vibrosword is that the Blue/Green dice will be very helpful against the Black Ops class deck, so it might be a more specialized weapon for certain circumstances, but maybe not worth it in average cases because of the increased cost. What I'm especially interested in seeing is how much better, compared to other weapons, it will be when you start adding upgrades, which is where I think you're going next, considering the "spoiler"

Another potential beneficiary is a class skill like Diala's Dancing Weapon, which uses a melee weapon to perform a ranged attack. Although that skill adds a blue die to the attack pool (and a surge for +2 Accuracy), pairing that bonus with the Vibro Sword gives a minimum range of 5 spaces (3 if the target is Hidden), with a potential to attack (or Cleave, if you have the Weighted Head!) up to 14 spaces away. Most ranged weapons would be thrilled to have that sort of accuracy floor/ceiling.

And as for Vibro Sword mods, let's just say I don't think fans of the weapon will be disappointed.

One thing to consider about the Vibrosword is that the Blue/Green dice will be very helpful against the Black Ops class deck, so it might be a more specialized weapon for certain circumstances, but maybe not worth it in average cases because of the increased cost. What I'm especially interested in seeing is how much better, compared to other weapons, it will be when you start adding upgrades, which is where I think you're going next, considering the "spoiler"

Great observation. The Black Ops deck does pose some special... challenges... to melee weapons, and unfortunately it's not the only one.

As anyone who's played the opening mission of the Bespin Gambit campaign can attest.

Another potential beneficiary is a class skill like Diala's Dancing Weapon, which uses a melee weapon to perform a ranged attack. Although that skill adds a blue die to the attack pool (and a surge for +2 Accuracy), pairing that bonus with the Vibro Sword gives a minimum range of 5 spaces (3 if the target is Hidden), with a potential to attack (or Cleave, if you have the Weighted Head!) up to 14 spaces away. Most ranged weapons would be thrilled to have that sort of accuracy floor/ceiling.

And as for Vibro Sword mods, let's just say I don't think fans of the weapon will be disappointed.

I was actually wondering if you would analyze not only the weapons on their own, but how well they would complement specific heroes. Because its all well and good to say X is the best bang for bucks on its own, when Y might complement a hero's abilities so much better that it actually does better or more consistent damage.

But I love the analysis you're putting into it all, really really useful to see it graphed out.

I was actually wondering if you would analyze not only the weapons on their own, but how well they would complement specific heroes. Because its all well and good to say X is the best bang for bucks on its own, when Y might complement a hero's abilities so much better that it actually does better or more consistent damage.

Anyway, all that to say, I'm hoping to get there, too :-D

As an aspiring mathematician and zealous imperial assault campaign player, I have thoroughly enjoyed every word and number in this post. I have done some quick calculations at the game table myself to get an estimated reading on the effectiveness of dice combinations of a few weapons. (which has been a great boon to my rebel allies). Admittedly, in imperial assault it is much more difficult to see whether or not a certain weapon upgrade or attack will be worth doing. At least in comparison to generic rpg stats such as +1 STR for -1 INT. Or a higher damage number in general.

I wouldn't fret about being "mathematically gifted" nor using programs or computations from other sources as it is all a foundation to which your probabilities build off of (plus it would suck to have to reinvent the wheel every time someone wanted to build a car). In my honest opinion, math was created for lazy people anyway (why add when you can multiply?)

Mathematical philosophy aside, this has been quite the eye opener for me as I have never once looked at the armored gauntlets in any light. I wrote it off once I saw a severe lack of a red die. A great folly, to be sure.

I have already printed out what you have posted so far so I may read and take notes at my leisure. To both be a better player, and when on the imperial side, be a better guide as to what everything has to offer. It is much easier to enjoy the game when you understand the risk and reward of attack/defense die and probability to succeed, rather than going in blind and raging at your "bad luck".

Thank you so much for posting this and keep up the good work!

Admittedly, in imperial assault it is much more difficult to see whether or not a certain weapon upgrade or attack will be worth doing. At least in comparison to generic rpg stats such as +1 STR for -1 INT. Or a higher damage number in general.

* * *

this has been quite the eye opener for me as I have never once looked at the armored gauntlets in any light. I wrote it off once I saw a severe lack of a red die.

The tactical aspects of this game definitely add some interesting layers. Defense rolls, distance to target, mission objectives, victory conditions, damage to target vs. stun vs. cleave vs. blast vs. strain recovery... It's hard to explore all of those alternatives ahead of time (much less reach definitive conclusions about what's the "best" choice), which is what makes heavy-surge options like the Gauntlets appealing. Pierce and +2D are there if I need to cut down a target, Stun and Cleave are there if I roll overkill, or if the situation calls for something else. On the other hand, too many options means I never get everything I wanted.

Thanks for the encouragement. I enjoy games more too the more I understand what's going on, so I'm glad it's been informative.

It's important that the benefit be "free" and "automatic," because if it costs a surge or a strain or some other resource to use, there's no guarantee we'll have it when we need it. In this particular example, the option to surge for Pierce 2 is nice to have, but it's certainly not dependable in the sense we're talking about (as the Fighting Knife has only a 1/6 (~17%) chance of rolling a single surge). On the flip side, the Gaffi Stick 's Pierce 1 is not surge dependent, so it's the kind of automatic damage upgrade we're looking for. It doesn't manifest itself as obviously in a chart of damage floors, but once we add defense dice, it makes a difference (as we've seen).

This cuts both ways, by the way. Just as our heroes should be constantly looking for ways to improve their damage floors, it's worth taking note of imperial units who have artificially inflated damage floors, and treat them with special care. Like these guys:

Talk about damage floors...

[Photo credit: cards.boardwars.eu ]

Has a Wampa ever shook your hand and left you with 5 damage? If it hasn't happened to you yet, odds are that it will (4D floor... and a ceiling of 8D... or 6D, Bleed, Stun, and Cleave 3 into your med-droid... yipes). Bossk actually has a damage floor and a defense floor (1+ Block), to go with all the other goodies he has. And those trandos... I know they're overpriced for skirmish, but if the IP gets these as a Reserved Group, if you love yourself by all means stay out of melee range .

Free combat upgrades are hard to come by for our heroes, but they're out there. There's a lot more for ranged weapons (mostly in the form of free accuracy buffs), such as the Tier 2 434 Deathhammer (600 credits), which combines a static +1D boost with a red die and a surge for +1D to give a damage floor of 3D (1D static, 1D+ from the reliable red die, and 1D+ from the blue die, either as a single damage face or as a surge that can be spent for +1D).

[Photo credit: cards.boardwars.eu ]

For melee weapons, the gold standard is the Tier 3 Electrostaff . It doesn't have any automatic damage, but with a Red-Blue-Green dice pool and a surge for +2D, it's looking at a damage floor of 3D (Red- 1D, Blue- 1 surge for +2D, Green- surge for... uh, something else, I guess), plus a Cleave 2 (unless we added Reach instead ). The damage ceiling is obviously much higher. Tier 3 weapons are a fair way off still, but with any luck, we'll get to that beautiful Electrostaff eventually. For now, we'll just look at it longingly, and file it away...

Since weapons with automatic combat upgrades are hard to come by, we may need to think outside the box a bit when it comes to making our damage dependable. If we have credits to spend, there are some mods that can help. For melee weapons with Reach , adding the Tier 1 Extended Haft (300 credits) gives that weapon an automatic Pierce 1 . If that weapon also has a red die (like the Tier 2 BD-1 Vibro-Ax or the Tier 3 Force Pike ), that's a nice bump in our weapon's dependability (as Pierce 1 means we can effectively convert two of the black die's six faces, and one of the white die's faces, into blanks). The Tier 3 Sniper Scope (250 credits) does a similar thing for ranged weapons with excellent surge abilities, giving a free, dependable surge (within a certain combat range) to raise a damage floor, combat an ill-timed Evade, recover strain, etc:

[Photo credit: cards.boardwars.eu ]

In the same vein, some heroes have class skills that add automatic bonuses to weapons. There's a reason why Biv's Vibrobayonet (3xp) is a no-brainer when it comes to getting the most out of Close and Personal : it stacks with the Red-Yellow attack pool to create a damage floor of 2D + Pierce 1 (1D+ from the Red die, and +1D with Pierce 1 from Vibrobayonet), or enough to get at least 1 damage past all but the Dodge and the black die's 3 Block face. Pair the Vibrobayonet with Crushing Blow (2xp), and that Yellow die will now contribute at least 1D+ as well (the Yellow's two single surge faces now contribute +2D), and now we're looking at a floor of 3D + Pierce 1 , which will deal damage past anything but a Dodge:

[Photo credit: cards.boardwars.eu ]

Verena's Point Blank Shot adds a similar effect to a ranged attack. I usually need my teammates to remind me that I have this upgrade (at least in the early going), but this is a nice passive boost to any Pistol Verena is carrying. We basically get to add the dependability we saw in the Gaffi Stick or Vibrobayonet (red die to boost our damage floor, plus a free Pierce 1 ) to the added flexibility that comes with a ranged pistol attack. If Verena also happens to have the Tier 2 Plasma Cell (450 credits) on a pistol with even semi-decent surge abilities, this can get absurd really quick:

Talk about one-shotting a stormie...

[Photo credit: cards.boardwars.eu ]

Not bad for a weapon and class-skill combo you can have as early as mission 4 in the long campaign, right? And again, it bears repeating that this is only a barely-decent pistol. The DL-44 with this set-up (RY attack pool) has essentially the same damage floor (Red-1D, Yellow-1D, Tactical Display, becomes 2 Acc. + 3D + Pierce 2 ), but a damage ceiling of 2 Acc. + 8D + Pierce 2 (Red-3D, Yellow-1D, 2 surge, Tactical Display). To put that in perspective, that's a ceiling that will drop a fully-healthy Royal Guard 5 out of 6 times. Go ahead. Please check the math. It's so fun. I had to check it a few times. It's absolutely absurd .

None of this should be surprising, given what we've already seen from our starting and Tier 1 melee weapons: weapons that have good damage floors (Vibro Knife) and/or have Pierce abilities (either for free, like the Gaffi Stick , or available at cost, like Gaarkhan's Vibro-Ax or the Vibro Sword ) have consistently high damage outputs, especially when paired with a red die. Here, we've managed to take the core of that weapon (red die + free Pierce 1 ), increased its potency even more (the Plasma Cell gives us a free Pierce 2 ), and pushed the damage floor up to 3D. With that level of dependable damage, e ven awful rolls will be more than enough to wreck grunt units that can't (or don't) Dodge.

Well, that was a fun digression. Let me see, where were we... oh right. Melee weapons.

Remember me? I remember you...

[Photo credit: cards.boardwars.eu ]

We spent a fair bit of time delving into the Vibro Sword 's "Strain to Pierce 1" ability last time (if you missed that discussion, the skinny was that the Pierce 1 makes a big difference in expected damage outcomes against both black and white defense dice). And it's worth noting that there are other weapons and class cards that contain similar abilities:

[Photo credit: cards.boardwars.eu ]

Pictured above:

Tier 2 Stun Baton (500 credits)

Fenn's Weapon Expert (2xp)

Biv's Hunt Them Down (Reward)

Murne's Lead from the Front (4xp)

Jyn's Roll With It (2xp)

(... which I know has no effect on damage floors, but does change Jyn's defense floor at the cost of strain)

The key take-away from these weapons and abilities is that because none of them have to be exhausted to be used, they give our heroes access to a constant benefit that our hero can access as long as the hero can pay the constant strain price (or, in the case of Biv's Hunt Them Down , the limiting condition that the target be an Imperial Trooper). Theoretically, there's no limit to how often per round Fenn can trigger Weapon Expert or Gaarkhan can trigger Vicious Strike , so long as we aren't strained out.

Before going further, it's worth pausing a few seconds for a brief refresher about strain, which means another brief foray into the RRG! (By the way, FFG has kindly made the RRG available on the internets here , for when we inevitably have a question and our game box isn't available... you know, because we're thinking about this game entirely too much). There's a ton that could be said (and is said) on this topic, but for your convenience, I've culled the following high points that I felt were most relevant to this discussion:

• Heroes that have abilities that have a strain cost must suffer strain in order to use that ability (RRG 23);
• In addition to hero and class abilities, strain can be used for all sorts of other useful things, not the least of which is gaining movement points without spending one of a hero's two valuable actions (RRG 20);
• A hero cannot willingly suffer more strain than he (or she) has endurance (RRG 23);
• Nor can a hero choose to suffer strain if the full amount suffered would exceed his or her endurance (RRG 23);
• A hero can spend an action to rest, in order to recover strain equal to his or her endurance (RRG 22);
• Once per attack, a Hero may spend 1 surge to recover 1 strain (RRG 24); and
• If a hero recovers more strain than he has suffered, he recovers 1 damage for each strain he cannot recover (RRG 22).

So basically: Endurance is a hard strain cap; Heroes have to (and generally want to) keep their strain down if they want to trigger their strain-dependent abilities; and once per attack, a hero can reduce his or her current strain count (with the added incentive that if this is done often consistently or efficiently enough to reduce strain below 0, the hero can actually recover health instead... another nifty trick that I somehow missed during my first five campaigns). In other words, strain management is a huge deal--not just for sustainable weapon damage, but for optimal campaign play as a whole.

Abilities like the Vibro Sword 's Pierce 1 are subject to these rules. Because the ability does not have to be exhausted to be used, we can hypothetically trigger Pierce 1 every time we attack (2+ times per round, depending on the hero and type of attack/combo of class skills), so long as our hero has strain that is less than his or her total Endurance. In that sense, these are "dependable" outcomes--they don't rely on the fickle dice, after all. Once our hero's endurance is shot, however, these options won't be available. In other words, these abilities are dependable , but their dependable use isn't sustainable . At least not without some planning.

Because virtually every hero has one or more class abilities that require strain to use (and typically, they're very powerful class abilities that ought to be milked as often as possible), these weapon and class abilities that cost strain to use also present a fundamental "opportunity cost" dilemma: Gaarkhan could spend 1 strain to get a Pierce 1 from his Vibro sword, but it he does, he may not have enough endurance remaining to Charge at another unit (which may be an essential part of the Rebel strategy... and is generally just a good policy, since it is both fantastic action-economy and thematically satisfying if one is a Wookie). Additionally, even if Gaarkhan never charges, there's still a set number of times he can trigger the Vibro Sword's Pierce 1 before he caps out his strain. Once that happens, he can rest, but as any seasoned campaigner will tell you, the IP loves almost nothing more than when heroes stop for a little mid-mission siesta.

Of course, these opportunity costs can be significantly reduced (if not eliminated altogether) if the hero can recoup the strain spent in the same attack. This can be done a few different ways, including certain class skill combos for certain heroes (which we'll hopefully get to later). For now, we'll focus on the most straightforward solution: through the use of the weapon that's draining Endurance in the first place.

STRAIN, SURGE, AND SUSTAINABILITY

Because a hero can spend 1 surge per attack to recover 1 strain, these special damage modifiers can become both dependable and sustainable so long as our hero has a weapon that can reliably generate at least 1 surge per attack that we can dedicate to clearing strain. In other words, we want to build 1 surge to remove 1 strain into our weapon's damage floor .

Unfortunately we don't have any mods that can guarantee a surge on a melee weapon every attack (no Sniper Scope for us...), so for the moment, we're back to relying solely on those dice to determine sustainability. Oh boy...

So far, we've dealt with five dice pools for our melee weapons:

• Yellow-Green (Plasteel Staff, Heirloom Dagger, Armored Gauntlets)
• Green-Green (Vibro Blade, Vibro Knife)
• Red-Yellow (Vibro-Ax, Gaffi Stick)
• Green-Blue (Vibro Sword)
• Red (Fighting Knife)

Plugging those weapons in, here's the probability that each dice pool produces at least 1, 2, and 3 surges:

Unsurprisingly, the Yellow-Green die pool performs very well (as we assumed it would), although even that pool has a less than 50% chance at landing at least 2 surges (which means all those glorious dreams we had with the Armored Gauntlets ? Unfortunately, most of them are going to be unfulfilled...). The Red-Yellow pool once again surprises: it's not much to look at out-of-the-gate, but it's there at the end, with a (small) chance of landing 3 surges. Not that either of our Red-Yellow weapons could use three surges, but still...

In this particular example, we're concerned about the Vibro Sword's Green-Blue dice pool. It's odds of generating 1+ surge... aren't terrible, but also aren't wonderful (in fact, it's clearly behind most of the other pools, thanks to that fickle Blue die again...). Still, a 67% chance of rolling at least 1 surge means we should be able to recoup the cost more often that not, right?

Well, yes... again, assuming we roll enough times (small sample sizes skew, remember). But there's a hidden opportunity cost here, as well. Probability says that more often than not, we should land the surge we need to pay for the Vibro Sword 's Pierce 1 , but only if we're willing to commit that single surge to recovering that 1 strain all the time ... and never spend it on, say, that beautiful ability to surge for +2D. And we certainly can make that choice if we want to, so long as we realize that doing so will do this to the Vibro Sword's damage output:

But wait, it gets worse. That's without adding any defense dice. Once defense dice are added to the equation, the Vibro Sword's damage output actually becomes... well, historically bad:

Just how historically bad is this damage output? Let's just say that every melee starter weapon we've considered--including Diala's Plasteel Staff , which was the worst of the group--has better odds of getting damage in every single damage category past defense dice than this use of the Vibro Sword :

This tells us a few things:

• That +2D surge ability on the Vibro Sword ? Brand new appreciation for it, here. It really does work. And it's a good thing the Vibro Sword has it, too, or its damage would be truly awful.
• That said, if the Vibro Sword becomes that bad once the +2D option is off the table, that really heightens the importance of having at least 1 surge... and should make us cautious when approaching white defense dice in particular.
• This also raises a large concern about strain-dependent weapons in general: namely, they're not actually dependable unless we can dependably cross a certain surge threshold. We already saw a glimpse of this when we looked at the Tier 1 melee weapons. Both the Vibro Sword and the Armored Gauntlets don't roll remarkably high-damage dice (Yellow-Green, Green-Blue), meaning they rely on their surge for +2D to keep damage values up. The Armored Gauntlets have a much higher chance of rolling at least 1 surge (83% vs. 67%), and as a result, they generate higher damage results at a consistently higher rate, while the Vibro Sword (without Pierce 1 ) offers middling damage. The more surge abilities we add (or, more accurately, the more surge abilities we rely upon to generate damage), the less dependable our weapon damage will be. This is especially true against white dice, where 3 of 6 (50%) die faces will rob us of a precious surge (and, of course, there's that Dodge, too...)
• If we want to reliably recover the strain we're spending on that automatic Pierce 1 with the Vibro Sword , without sacrificing our overall damage output, what we really need to look at are not our odds of rolling 1 surge, but our odds of rolling 2 surges . Those odds aren't good at all, by the way (17%). Which means that if we want to sustainably use this Pierce 1 , we'll need a plan to recover strain from something other than our natural dice rolls.

So with that in mind, let's take a brief look at our very first weapons mod that can make this ability at least semi-sustainable: the Tier 1 Balanced Hilt .

A PREVIEW OF CUSTOMIZATION

As promised, we're finally to mods! (I admit, there were times where I wasn't sure we'd make it...)

First things first: item modifications ("mods") are amazing, but only certain weapons can take them: not the Armored Gauntlets, not the Vibro Knife, and not Verena's Fighting Knife ... almost certainly because adding the Tier 3 Vibrogenerator would give it a higher damage floor than the Tier 3 Electrostaff we were fawning over earlier.. No, really! Check it out:

It's unfortunately not possible, but this is a pretty solid 350 credits, right?

Fortunately for us, the Vibro Sword can take a mod (in fact it can take two), so for now we're good.

Second, it's important to emphasize that the Balanced Hilt is, by definition, not a dependable upgrade to our damage, because it has to be exhausted to use. To date, no hero has an ability that will tap an exhausted weapon or item card (although Davith's reward can ready one exhausted class card, which is a pretty big deal). It's important to remember this whenever we're evaluating a weapon's damage floor, just to make sure we're not inflating its dependable damage to an unsustainable level.

That said, it takes less than a round in a campaign to appreciate the ability to situationally add a surge to a roll that came up just a little short. Adding this mod to our Vibro Sword means we can get our damage back on track, survive a roll that doesn't land any surges (or runs into an Evade), and have a much better chance of recovering that strain we spent on Pierce 1 whenever we have any naturally rolled surges left.

As a result, our Vibro Sword's damage is back on the rise. In fact, adding Balanced Hilt across the board has an impact on our melee weapon hierarchy:

Some quick-hitting observations:

• First off, note that three of the weapons we've looked at so far cannot take Balanced Hilt : Verena's Fighting Knife, the Tier 1 Vibro Knife, and the Tier 1 Armored Gauntlets. As such, their position relative to one another remains unchanged. Additionally, the Tier 1 Gaffi Stick can take it, but receives no noticeable change to its combat stats because it has no surge abilities that affect damage totals (only surge for Weaken ), so its relative position also remains unchanged.
• For the remaining weapons, Balanced Hilt does result in a damage upgrade for every weapon, although it's still not enough to push Diala's Plasteel Staff or the Tier 1 Vibro Blade past Verena's un-moddable Fighting Knife (which may tell us a thing or three about their ability to push damage through in general...).
• The biggest push was for weapons that could surge for either a Pierce (Davith's Heirloom Dagger , Garkhan's Vibro-Ax ) or +2D damage (Vibro Swords). Even the vanilla Vibro Sword surges far ahead of the pack with the Balanced Hilt (84% chance at 2D+, the highest we've seen so far), and adding the Pierce 1 on top of that makes the Vibro Sword our first weapon to cross the 80% probability threshold on 3D+ (83%), as well as our first weapon with an outside shot of getting 6 damage past a defense die.
• We also have an increased number of weapons that can theoretically put 5 damage on a target--the Tier 1 Vibro Blade, Davith's Heirloom Dagger, and even Diala's much-maligned Plasteel Staff (though I wouldn't count on it...)--now that they can gain a surge result (+1D, Pierce 1 , or in Davith's case, both) without giving up a double-damage result on one of their die.

Finally, it's worth noting that adding Balanced Hilt to these weapons had an impact that isn't necessarily reflected in the chart: for some weapons, like the Gaffi Stick , Vibro-Ax , and even the Vibro Sword , there are circumstances that the dice roll results in excess surges that cannot be converted into damage, and even on excess surges (the Vibro Sword rolls surge-surge against a blank white die, for +2D and recover 1 strain, but tapping the Balanced Hilt in that circumstance nets us only... a Bleed ?). In these circumstances, the dice are giving us a result that we'd otherwise love to have (surge for +2D? Yes, sir!), but replicating them in a way that reduces our total damage output (once we have the single-surge for +2D, we'd much rather have that +2D face or even a damage-surge face, rather than piling on surges--especially since we have Balanced Hilt in reserve to recover that strain).

Next time, we'll dig a little more deeply into weapon dependability by tackling the rest of the melee weapon mods, exploring any (and every) chance to pump our damage as high as possible. Including this odd little bird...

Until next time, thanks for reading!

• Edited to remove a random stream of consciousness from the end. But if you noticed anything that's off/not explained well/unexpected, do let me know!
• And to correct that Fenn in fact has Weapon Expert , not Verena. Obviously. Thanks for the catch, Lext Level !

Another great chapter toward the inevitable unraveling of the game of imperial assault as we know it. I fully appreciate "passive"/guaranteed damage/damage floors. I also completely agree with your blurb on Verena's point-blank shot and how incredibly bonkers it is for her to do that much damage. I am currently going through a hoth campaign with her and she has the aforementioned DL-44 with Tac-Display, Point-Blank shot, Create Opening, and now Master Operative. The imperial player is forced to watch as I take out a group of snow troopers and the officer hiding behind them in 1 activation. It is gloriously ridiculous.

The key take-away from these weapons and abilities is that because none of them have to be exhausted to be used, they give our heroes access to a constant benefit that our hero can access as long as the hero can pay the constant strain price (or, in the case of Biv's Hunt Them Down , the limiting condition that the target be an Imperial Trooper). Theoretically, there's no limit to how often per round Verena Fenn can trigger Weapon Expert or Gaarkhan can trigger Vicious Strike , so long as we aren't strained out.

Just a small error here. Fenn has weapon expert, not Verena.

Doh! Absolutely right. Fixed it. Thanks for the catch!

I am currently going through a hoth campaign with her and she has the aforementioned DL-44 with Tac-Display, Point-Blank shot, Create Opening, and now Master Operative. The imperial player is forced to watch as I take out a group of snow troopers and the officer hiding behind them in 1 activation. It is gloriously ridiculous.

Oh gosh. I'll bet it is.

The Galaxy's Fate in my Hand: An IA Probability Compendium

Part the Fifth : "Hedging Potential" ( in which we expand our options for improving the dependability of our melee weapons, and discover why it's always better to roll damage than to surge for it ).

• T opics discussed : Dice Hedging, Damage Floors, "Natural damage" vs. "surge damage," High-Impact Guard, Extended Haft, Shock Emitter, Vibrogenerator

We left off our last discussion quite happy with the Tier 1 Vibro Sword's improved damage performance coupled with the [/center] Balanced Hilt (and especially when that [/center] Pierce 1 came into play). At the same time, however, we noted that our overall damage floor--even with that modification in tow--remained at 2D, with 1 strain recovered and maybe a bleed. In other words, it was still possible (even with Pierce 1 ) for our roll to totally bomb out and score no damage on the target (Dodge on a white die, or Block 3 on a black die).

This time, we'll return to the idea of dependable damage, and look at ways we might be able to pump our weapon's damage up to where it is guaranteed to deal at least 1D past any defense die (except that Dodge). Here's the skinny summary:

• To reliably score at least 1 damage past a Black or white defense die, our weapon's damage floor needs to be at least 4D or 3D + Pierce 1 ;
• We can make less-dependable dice more dependable by adding surge abilities that "flip" the value of a die's faces;
• "Hedging" the dice with surge abilities generally leads to more dependable damage results, but also makes our final damage output more vulnerable to Evades;
• Upgrades that "hedge" the dice are extremely rare, and thus in high demand;
• Improving our weapon's damage floor with surge abilities does not necessarily guarantee that our weapon will deal guaranteed damage;
• Dice hedging affects all weapons, but it does not affect all weapons equally;
• "Surge damage" (damage added to our damage total by cashing in surge abilities) are less reliable than "natural damage" (damage results either added directly by our dice or from other items, modifications, etc.), against both black and white defense dice;
• Weapon upgrades that supplement our attacks with additional "natural" damage can significantly improve our weapon's damage output, but the price of these options are steep, and not all of these options are equally sustainable.

THE "GOLDEN RULE" OF WEAPON DEPENDABILITY: "GUARANTEED" DAMAGE

The gold-standard in dependable damage is knowing that no matter what else happens (sans that Dodge, again), we will be able to deal at least 1 damage to any target of our choosing--no matter how hot he rolls, or how poorly we roll. Against both defense dice, the magic threshold seems to be a damage floor of either 4D or 3D + Pierce 1 . Against a single black die, either result is enough to get damage over even the best possible defense roll (3 blocks). The math against a white die is a little more complex, but it boils down to this:

• Because no melee weapon currently in the game can score 3D or 4D from just a single surge result, scoring 3D or 4D means one of the following must be true:
  • we must have scored either 3 or 4 damage results from our attack dice or other modifiers (what we'll be referring to later as "natural damage" results)
  • we must have scored at least 1 natural damage result and 1 surge that allows us to surge for at least +1D; or
  • we must have scored at least 2 surge results, both of which can be cashed out together to score at least 3D or 4D.
• If we scored at least 4D using any of these methods, the white die cannot account for all of that damage unless it rolls a Dodge.
• If we scored at least 3D using any of these methods, and have at least Pierce 1 , the white die will also be unable to account for all of this damage unless it rolls a Dodge (it needs to score 4 Blocks against method 1, two Blocks and an Evade against method 2, and two Evades against method 3, none of which are possible outcomes on an unmodified white die, unless it rolls Dodge).

We've already seen how our strain-enhanced Vibro Sword is tantalizingly close to this predictability threshold, with a damage floor of 2D + Pierce 1 off of its worst possible roll, a Blue-surge, Green-surge. So if we can find a way to push this damage ceiling even a single-point higher, this weapon will enter very rare air indeed.

As it happens, there are several ways we can acquire that level of predictable damage, using the modifications available in the Item Deck. The first option (which tends to be the most accessible and sustainable method) is to add modifications that turn what would otherwise be a bad die roll into a good or great one. I refer to this as "hedging" the dice pool of our weapon.

LEVERAGING DEPENDABLE OUTCOMES BY "HEDGING" THE DICE

Recall from our earlier discussion of dice (waaaaaaaaay back at the beginning) that for melee weapons at least, the most dependable dice we have for dealing damage are the Red and Green dice. The Red die has only one bad face (that single damage), giving us a 100% chance of scoring at least 1 damage, and a 5/6 (~83%) chance of scoring at least 2 damage. The Green die, similarly, has only one bad face (a single surge), a 2/6 (~33% chance of landing 1D and a surge), and a 3/5 (50%) chance of landing 2 damage. The Blue and Yellow dice have a 3/6 (50%) chance of contributing only one thing to our damage total (either a single damage or a single surge).

THEY'RE BACK!

(They never really go away...)

For weapons that can't surge for any damage, single-surge die faces basically handicap our damage output (though they may still ultimately help force our damage helpful through with abilities like Pierce , or trigger collateral damage effects with abilities like Bleed , Blast , or Cleave ). If a weapon can surge for +1D, these surge faces (or at least one of them, if the weapon only has one "surge for +1D" ability) basically become single-damage faces, which isn't great on its own, but does boost our weapon's dependability by ensuring every face contributes at least 1 damage to our attack total (basically a "Red-die light"--the same guarantee of minimum damage, though less favorable odds at 2D+--at least on Blue and Yellow dice). In other words, our weapon "hedges" against what would otherwise be a non-damage-dealing roll (a single surge) and allows it to contribute to our damage total.

In the same vein, adding an ability to surge for +2D, like the Vibro Sword does, alters the value of these faces yet again. For the Vibro Sword , the blue die actually becomes something semi-reliable: only two of its faces contribute 1D (the two single-damage faces), while three faces contribute 2D (the double-damage faces, plus the single surge face), and one face has the potential to contribute 3D to the combat total. This basically brings the Blue die's damage on-par with an unmodified Green die, which has a 1/6 (~17%) chance of scoring 0 damage (single-surge), a 2/6 (~33%) chance at scoring 1 damage (damage-surge), and a 3/6 (50%) chance of scoring 2D. The results are even more pronounced if we apply the surge for +2D to the Green die: four of that die's six faces (~67%) now contribute at least 2 damage to the damage total, while the remaining two can contribute 3D. In other words, the Green die's six faces are now slightly better than an unmodified red die when it comes to the ability to score damage (a 4/6 (~67%) chance of scoring 2D, and a 2/6 (~33%) chance of scoring 3D).

Of course, the catch with the Vibro Sword is that each surge ability can only be triggered once per attack (RRG 24), so in reality, we have to choose between boosting either our Blue or our Green die. For many dice rolls, the choice of which to boost will be easy (the die with the surge, since we're only "likely" (~67%) to roll a single surge). With this particular weapon, we'll also have rolls that don't land any surges, although with this particular weapon, anytime we do that we know we'll be hitting at least that 3D threshold anyway (ironically, it'd be a different story if we swapped out the Green die for any other die, including the Red one), and have the Pierce 1 available if we want it (so long as we're managing our strain). We are literally thisclose to crossing that all-but-guaranteed damage threshold: the only die result that still confounds us is rolling surge-surge. If only there was a way to add another ability to surge for 1D+...

You called? I came.

There are some cards in IA that need some explanation. This is not one of those cards. A Tier 2 mod that gives a melee weapon an ability to surge for +2D? And just for kicks, it can also be exhausted while defending to add +1 Block to defense rolls (giving our hero a modified, albeit non-sustainable, defense floor)? Yes, please. The only drawback is the high asking price (500 credits, or as much as some capable weapons, like the DL-44), but there's no doubt that there's tremendous damage potential here.

To use just one example, our previous "worst possible" roll on the Vibro Sword--double surges--now scores a very high 4D with the High-Impact Guard equipped (again, with that option to Pierce 1 for a Strain, if we like). What does that do to the Vibro Sword's damage dependability? Well, it now means that our worst possible roll on the Green die becomes not a double-surge, but rather a single-surge or double-damage face, both faces can now always be redeemed for 2D (the only two remaining faces on the Green die are damage-surge faces, which can now be cashed out for 3D). The Blue die's previous worst face--that dreaded single-surge--can similarly always be redeemed for +2D (unless we add other dice to our pool, through Focus or other card effects). Now, that previously bad single-surge result becomes one of the more valuable sides of the Blue die ( which now has a 3/6 (50%) chance at scoring 2D, and a 1/6 (~17%) chance at scoring 3D). Consequently, our newest worst-possible roll is 1D from the Blue die (2/6, ~33%) and either 1 surge or 2D on the Green die (4/6, ~67%), for a damage floor of 3D.

In other words, by modifying our weapon in this fashion, we've in effect modified our dice (or, more appropriately, stacked the deck against the dice) to improve the damage we can obtain from the weakest face of both dice. Add that Pierce 1 for a strain, and congratulations! We've now guaranteed that even our weapon's worst-possible roll will deal at least 1 damage against any single defense die roll, short of a Dodge! That's the essence of weapon dependability.

And by the way, the effect is not limited to the Vibro Sword. Every weapon that we've looked at so far experiences at least some increase to its damage output past black and white defense dice with the High-Impact Guard equipped:

Here's High-Impact Guard increasing the "at least" damage probabilities of all moddable weapons we've looked at so far... in most cases, substantially

The chart above looks at the average odds of forcing damage past a single Black and a single white defense die (what I refer to as "adjusted defense dice"). It's worth noting that when we're looking at these adjusted probabilities, the best possible odds a weapon can score is 91.5% (the average of 100%--the best possible odds of dealing at least 1D past a black die--and 83%--the best possible odds of dealing at least 1D past a white die, which can Dodge). Without High Impact Guard, none of the weapons we've looked at so far hit this guaranteed damage threshold (although the Vibro Sword with Pierce 1 comes awfully close, at 91.3%--the lone culprit is a surge-surge attack roll against a 3 Block black die, which results in no damage dealt... but the odds of that happening are extremely small (1/216 possible rolls, or ~0.46%). Once we add High-Impact Guard, however, three weapons hit that level (the Vibro Sword with Pierce 1 , the Gaffi Stick, and surprisingly, the previously lackluster Vibro Blade), and all the weapons get within 3% of that mark.

THE PROS (AND CONS) OF DICE-HEDGING

Now before we get too carried away with this, it's worth pausing a second to note that while there's tremendous upside in building a weapon that hedges dice in this fashion, there are some important limitations we have to bear in mind.

The first issue is that dice-hedging items--just like options to add automatic damage--are extremely limited. The only mod that can add a surge for damage ability to a melee weapon is the High-Impact Guard . For ranged weapons, only the Tier 2 Plasma Cell (450 credits) adds an ability to surge for +1D. And, of course, there is an alarmingly-high number of melee weapons (like the Tier 1 Vibro Knife and Armored Gauntlets , and the Tier 2 Vibro Knucklers ) that can't take any mods. As long as our team has more than a single melee or ranged hero, there won't be enough of these upgrades to go around the entire group.

Second, for most weapons, simply adding a dice hedging mod like the High-Impact Guard is still not a guarantee that a weapon will clear the 3D + Pierce 1 or 4D damage floor needed to guarantee that damage is dealt past defense dice. The Vibro Sword reaches this threshold, but the only reason it does so given its attack pool (Green-Blue), is because of the presence of two other important factors: (a) it has an innate ability to surge for +2D, and (b) it has the ability to apply Pierce 1 without spending one of its valuable surges.

Without any of these components, the Vibro Sword can't guarantee that it will cross the damage-dealt threshold:

• Without the innate ability to surge for at least1 additional damage (in this case, +2D), the Vibro Sword's worst roll--even with the High-Impact Guard--would net it only 2D (surge-surge for +2D). Even with the Pierce 1 from straining, that's not enough to get damage past a black die that rolls 3 Blocks.
• Without the Pierce 1 , the Vibro Sword's worst possible roll (Green-double-damage or surge for +2D; Blue-single damage) would once again fall short of the Black die's 3 Block face.

In fact, the Vibro Sword is the only moddable Starter or Tier 1 melee weapon with the right combination of dice and innate abilities to clear the 3D + Pierce 1 or 4D threshold on its worst possible roll. For all other weapons, the HIgh-Impact Guard is simply not enough to push the weapon into "guaranteed damage" territory:

Soooooooooo close...

These weapons, while still generating very good damage, fall juuuuuuuuuuust short of guaranteed damage for a variety of reasons. The Plasteel Staff and Vibro-Blade can score 3D off of surges, but have no ability to Pierce . The Vibro-Ax and Gaffi Stick can Pierce , but lack the Green die and its guarantee of at least 2D (thanks to the fact that its worst face is that single surge). Their yellow die can bottom-out at just a single damage. And while the heirloom dagger can innately surge for +1D or Pierce 1 , it can't score both abilities and the +2D from High-Impact Guard on its worst possible roll (in fact, the only way it can trigger all three is with the "best" possible roll on the yellow die).

Nor is this scarcity of essential conditions (innate surge for 1D+, a mod slot for High-Impact Guard, and an ability to reliably Pierce) limited to our starter or Tier 1 melee weapons. In fact, if we scan the spectrum of available weapons (both ranged and melee), there's a very small category of (two-dice) weapons and modifications that offer other weapons these cash-out opportunities:

• An innate ability to surge for +1D or more: This is the most populous category. For melee weapons, our choices are the Tier 1 Armored Gauntlets (300 credits), and Tier 2 Vibro Knucklers (400 credits), Stun Baton (500 credits), and BD-1 Vibro-Ax (600 credits). For ranged weapons, we have the Tier 1 DH-17 (200 credits), Tatooine Hunting Rifle (250 credits), E-11 (400 credits), DL-44 (500 credits), and DDC Defender (550 Credits), as well as the Tier 2 EE-3 Carbine (550 Credits), A280 (600 credits), 434 "Deathhammer" (600 credits).
• A mod slot to add an ability to surge for 1D+: Once we eliminate un-moddable weapons ( Armored Gauntlets , Vibro Knucklers ), the melee weapons pool shrinks to just the Stun Baton and the BD-1 , along with the Vibro Sword . All of the ranged weapons discussed above are moddable. The only mod that can add a surge for damage ability to a melee weapon is the High-Impact Guard . For ranged weapons, only the Tier 2 Plasma Cell (450 credits) adds an ability to surge for +1D.
• An ability to apply Pierce 1: On the melee side, the Tier 1 Gaffi Stick (200 credits) is the only weapon with a built-in Pierce. There are no melee weapon modifications that explicitly grant a weapon Pierce , although the Tier 1 Extended Haft (300 credits) gives a free Pierce 1 to any weapon that also has Reach (the BD-1 Vibro-Ax ). For ranged weapons, only the Plasma Cell can modify a weapon to apply a free Pierce 1 .

If we want a free Pierce 1 ... these are our only (melee) options.

In other words, while dice-hedging can be incredibly powerful, there are only so many options available to accomplish these results, and not enough to spread them out among our entire team (no matter the distribution between melee and ranged fighters).

Third, there's an undeniable cost-premium associated with dice hedging. Hedging the Vibro Sword's dice to convert a worst possible roll of 2D + Bleed into 3D + Pierce 1 means spending 500 credits (at least) on the High-Impact Guard (at least). Over time, that sort of dependability will pay dividends, especially if the hero who has the Vibro Sword uses it a lot (consistent activation-attacks, out-of-activation attacks, etc.). But added to the high-buy-in cost of the Vibro Sword itself (350 credits), and this weapon is nearly a 1000 credit investment. With any other mod (like the Balanced Hilt ), it will easily clear 1000 credits.

Fourth, even though all the moddable weapons we've looked at so far did receive a damage bump with High-Impact Guard, not all of them received the same degree of bump from taking this upgrade. If we take a closer look at that chart of how our moddable starter and Tier 1 melee weapons fared with High-Impact Guard, one of the things that jumps out almost immediately is that while most weapons received a significant damage boost from the addition of the Guard, the Vibro Sword actually experienced only minimal gains. Here's the chart again, this time highlighting the gains made by the Guard over the unmodified weapon's damage:




Adding the High-Impact Guard to the Vibro Sword (with or without spending a strain to Pierce 1 ) only resulted in marginal, single-digit gains in the Vibro Sword's damage probabilities, across the board (the single-largest gain is +7%). These are definite gains, don't get me wrong, but they're decidedly unimpressive when compared by the other relative gains registered by every other weapon. Every other weapon registered double-digit improvements in at least three damage bands (Diala's Plasteel Staff and the Tier 1 Gaffi Stick registered double-digit gains in four damage bands), and four of the five registered at least one probability improvement greater than +20%. The lone exception, Gaarkhan's Vibro-Ax , fell just short, at +19.5%. The biggest beneficiary, by far, was the Gaffi Stick , which paired High-Impact Guard with the high surge chance of its Yellow die and its already-potent Red die/free Pierce 1 combo. The result was three gains greater than 20%, culminating in a +33% probability of dealing 4D past defense dice (boosting those odds from an already-impressive 21% to a best-in-class 54%, or better than 1-out-of-2 tries).

The Vibro Sword's relatively poor showing here helps to illustrate a useful caveat about dice hedging. The point of dice hedging is to try to substantially improve our weapon's worst-possible roll, but not every move that substantially improves our weapon's worst-possible roll will substantially improve our weapon's overall damage output.

Because a Green-Blue dice pool can roll double-surges, adding a second surge option that allows us to convert both surges into 3-4 damage (instead of 2). This is undoubtedly a substantial improvement to this weapon's worst-possible roll. But in order for High-Impact Guard to result in an overall damage boost , we have to be able to reliably trigger it, without sacrificing any other source of damage (in this case, the Vibro Sword's other ability to surge for +2D). As we already know, a Green-Blue dice pool will only rarely roll 2 surges (~17%), meaning that most of the time one of our +2D abilities will lay dormant (unless we can find a way to manufacture surges outside of our attack pool roll).

None of the other moddable weapons we've looked at so far suffer from this sort of limitation. The Plasteel Staff, Heirloom Dagger, and even the Vibro Blade have decent odds at landing the 2+ surges necessary to reliably trigger High-Impact Guard and their innate surge for +1D abilities. The Vibro-Ax and Gaffi Stick , on the other hand, don't have great odds at landing double-surges, but they also do not have an competing abilities that convert surges into damage, which is why adding High-Impact Guard as a surge option makes such a difference to their damage total across the board.

"NATURAL" vs. "SURGE" DAMAGE

The final caveat is probably the most important: weapons that hedge dice in this fashion tend to rely more heavily on surges to deal damage. Accordingly, these weapons tend to be disproportionately affected by Evades, and in particular by the White die (which, as we know, has three faces with an Evade, not counting the Dodge). Conceptually, this makes sense. To defend against naturally-rolled damage, the defender must counter each point of damage rolled with a Block, in a 1-for-1 trade. Once we roll more than 1 natural damage result, the white die falls off the pace. Once we roll 3 or more natural damage results, the black die can no longer keep up. This is why Red-Green attack pools are so effective at dealing damage: 6/6 (100%) and 5/6 (~83%) of the die's faces contribute at least 1 natural damage result, and for each damage added, the defense die has to work that much harder.

Surges play with this natural order in two ways. First, they allow us as the attacker to artificially inflate sub-par dice pools (like the Vibro sword's Green-Blue pool) to damage levels that are similar to what we'd expect from a Red or Green die. The trade-off is that those damage results can now be eliminated by the defender, in a much more favorable trade. Instead of needing 2 Blocks to counter 2D from our Vibro Sword , the defender can now match that damage with just a single Evade. And if our weapon's attack pool is only likely to roll one surge anyway (like the Vibro Blade ), a much weaker defensive die roll can have a disproportionately significant effect on the total damage dealt to the target.

To get a visual sense of this principle in action, let's consider how three different Vibro Sword dice rolls interact with both the black and white defense dice. In the first group, the Vibro Sword rolls only natural damage results. In the second, the Vibro Sword rolls a mix of natural damage and surge damage. In the third, the Vibro Sword tries to force damage through using only surges. In each case, the Vibro Sword scores a raw total of exactly 4D (which, as we've already discussed, is one of our two magic numbers for guaranteeing at least 1 damage past any non-Dodge defense result). But how much of that 4D actually gets past the target's defense dice?

The White Die, which is generally susceptible to damage, becomes far more effective against surge-dependent weapons

Obviously this is a small sample size (just 3 of the Vibro Sword's 36 potential rolls), but the general principals are well-illustrated here. Generally, this distinction between natural damage and surge damage doesn't matter against a black die... until it does. There's only a 1/6 (~17%) chance that surge damage will push less damage through than natural damage, well within even a risk-adverse comfort level (~83% chance of no negative effect). But when that Evade does turn up, it functions as the equivalent of 2 Blocks against our Vibro Sword 's surge damage, whereas against a natural damage roll, it functions as a blank. The difference is a +100% damage swing.

The discrepancy becomes far more pronounced against white die targets. As long as the Vibro Sword applies Pierce 1 , it can still reliably get damage past the White die so long as it scores at least 3 damage in natural damage or surge results (Dodge excepted). But if the Vibro Sword relies primarily on surges to score that 3D+, the white die will have a far easier time mitigating the damage as it goes in. On the flip side, the same amount of natural damage is never outperformed by the same amount of surge damage, regardless of what die face we're speaking of (Black or White). Best case scenario, the surge damage scores the same amount of damage as the naturally-rolled damage results. Worst-case scenario, the naturally rolled damage is 200% more effective than the surge damage at punching through the target's white die defense.

This is not to say that surge damage is bad, by any means. In fact, for weaker damage dice like Yellows and Blues, it's often the most accessible and sustainable option for increasing our damage. But if we're concerned about our weapon's dependability (as we are at this juncture), it's worth remembering that as long as defense dice are on the table, the damage generated by surge will be inherently less dependable than damage that is naturally rolled . In other words, if we have the choice between adding surge damage or natural damage to our attack, adding the natural damage is never the less dependable option, and against a White die is by far the more dependable alternative.In other words, natural damage is inherently more difficult for defense dice to deal with than surge damage--even against the black defense die. In other words, it's always the more dependable damage source.

Finally, it's worth pointing out that while the impact of an Evade is more pronounced when we're dealing with surges for 2D+, the Evade still has the same effect on surge abilities that add as little as 1D. As long as the attacker is relying on that surge to contribute even a single damage, the Evade basically upgrades the white die to a black die (two double-blocks, two single-blocks) with a slightly weaker "worst" roll (Black Evade vs. White Blank), and an infinitely more powerful "best" roll (Black Block 3 vs. White Dodge). Against surge abilities that add +2D, the White die's two Block-Evade faces essentially function as Block 3 faces, and its single-Evade face as a Block 2, making it by far the best defensive die on the board (Blank, Block 1, Block 2, Block 3, Block 3, Dodge). Again, reliance on a surge to contribute damage makes it that much easier for the White die to keep up with damage totals. Natural damage, on the other hand, quickly overwhelms every result but the Dodge.

Speaking of natural damage, that seems like a good segue into our final topic for today: the three remaining mods that can either add or supplement the natural damage dealt by our melee weapons. Specifically, the Tier 1 Extended Haft , Tier 3 Shock Emitter , and Tier 3 Vibrogenerator .

"HEDGING" WEAK DICE WITH AUTOMATIC DAMAGE (OR ITS EQUIVALENT)

The end of the Tier 1 weapons is finally in sight...

We'll start with the Extended Haft (Tier 1, 300 credits) for two reasons. First, it's the earliest mod available to our heroes, as well as the cheapest. Second (and more importantly), there's only one weapon we've looked at so far that has Reach , and therefore gains any damage increase from adding the Extended Haft: Diala's Plasteel Staff . Adding the Haft gives the Staff an automatic Pierce 1 , which is nothing to sneeze at. Sure, it's not natural damage, but it's the next best thing--it protects our natural (and surge) damage by removing one of those all-to-rare block results from our target's defense die:

There's definite improvement, but the damage being dealt is still pretty low...

At the same time, this upgrade does very little to hedge against the Plasteel Staff 's "worst possible" roll--that dreaded double-surge--which becomes an uninspiring 1D + Pierce 1 . Once again, that's an improvement over its previous roll (1D + Stun , which will only trigger against a white die's blank face),but it's also far short of guaranteeing damage against a target (the High-Impact Guard, which scores 3D on double-surges, is closer). But on a different Reach weapon with better damage-dealing dice (Reds, Greens) and/or better surge abilities (+1D, +2D), this free Pierce 1 could become quite good. For now, though, we'll just file that away...

Before leaving the Haft, however, it would be a mistake to sell this modification short merely because it rarely contributes to our weapon's damage total. In a game where positioning is at premium, and mobility comes with a cost, the ability to use a melee weapon one space further than we otherwise could is a major convenience, and on a well-built weapon, can become incredibly powerful. Depending on the hero we've chosen, and the skill upgrades we plan to add, the Extended Haft may still end up being a very smart investment.

The Shock Emitter (Tier 3, 500 credits) is next. On its face, this is a relatively straight-forward ability: the card can be exhausted to add +1D (a natural damage result) to our attack total, and it also allows the wielder to spend a surge to inflict Stun on a target. Paired with our Vibro Sword, exhausting this upgrade is another way to clear that 4D / 3D + Pierce 1 threshold, as it converts our worst-possible double-surge roll from 2D to 3D. There are some limitations, though. First, our Vibro Sword 's dice pool hasn't changed, so we're still likely to suffer from the same surge shortage when it comes to the Shock Emitter 's Stun that prevented us from consistently triggering High-Impact Guard 's +2D. That's not a problem unique to the Vibro Sword , either:

These damage levels aren't sustainable because Shock Emitter has to be exhausted, but it's still a nice hedge against the chance we land that "worst possible roll." Those surges for Stun aren't sustainable either, but that's a different story...

The chart above combines basic damage probabilities of scoring "at least" damage using Shock Emitter's +1D exhaust (columns 1-6), with a Monte Carlo simulation that measured just how often each weapon was also able to trigger the Shock Emitter 's Stun ability (column 8). Some interesting observations:

• Davith's Heirloom Dagger actually fared the poorest when it came to triggering stun, thanks to the fact that the Shock Emitter gives it three good surge options (Surge for +1D, Pierce 1 and a Bleed , and now Stun ). In order to push the maximum amount of damage through, the Heirloom Dagger needs to spend at least 2 surges on +1D and Pierce 1 , and it only landed the third surge necessary to trigger Stun in 6% of our 2000 trials.
• The Vibro Sword variants, Gaarkhan's Vibro-Ax , and Vibro Blade triggered Stun in ~14% to 19% of our trials, since each had a preferred surge ability that contributed directly to damage output (+2D for the Vibro Swords , Pierce 1 for the Vibro-Ax , and +1D for the Vibro Blade ).
• Diala's Plasteel Staff also had a preferred surge ability (+1D), but rolled two or more surges enough times to trigger Stun in 32.5% of its 2000 trials.
• The Gaffi Stick , with the choice to surge for Stun or Weaken , opted for Stun whenever it rolled a surge, which was in a combined 57.6% of our trials. In the 2000 trials against a black die, Stun was triggered a whopping 71% of the time. Against the 2000 against white dice, Dodges and Evades cut that to just 44.2%.

This tells us some useful information when it comes to assessing the value of the Shock Emitter . For these particular weapons, most of them are rarely going to tap into the primary (and persistent) benefit conferred by the Shock Emitter --the ability to Stun the target--without cutting into their overall damage output. So the question becomes whether having that +1D boost available when we need it (plus a surge ability that is nice to have, but we may seldom use) is (a) a skill we want to have (remembering that it's an exhaust skill), and (b) worth the 500 credit asking price.

The last melee mod is the Tier 3 Vibrogenerator . Like the Shock Emitter , the Vibrogenerator 's effect is pretty straightforward: when we declare an attack, we may choose to add +2D (natural damage) to whatever we roll. In exchange, we agree to remove two surges from whatever we roll. The +2D is a no-brainer, as it results in a significant boost to weapon damage:

It turns out adding +2D to a weapon actually makes a difference...

Vibrogenerator also does not have to be exhausted to use, either, so if we want, we can use it to give our weapon a sustainable +2D boost, so long as we're willing to pay the cost of -2 surge. There's no doubt that's a very steep asking price. But is it worth it? And if so, when?

We'll pick up that question next time. Now that we've made it through all the mods we can add to our melee weapons in the early-, mid-, and late-game, we are tantalizingly close to having all the tools we need to start evaluating which of these weapons are "good deals" for our particular heroes. But before we can do that with confidence, we need to look at the last piece that some of these weapons bring: the value of both negative conditions ( Stun , Bleed , Weaken ) and combat effects ( Cleave ), both in their own right, and how applying those conditions (which almost always requires the use of one of our weapon's precious surges) is likely to affect our weapon's damage output.

Until then, let me know if I've missed anything, messed anything up, etc., and thanks as always for reading!


Inevitable Post-Posting Edits:

• Added the correct article description after the title. Whoops. That was embarrassing...
• Altered the discussion of our "Golden Rule" to reflect the fact that the heroes do have an option to surge for +3D, as pointed out by Stompburger . Thanks for the catch!

Because no weapon currently in the game can score 3D or 4D from just a single surge result, scoring 3D or 4D means one of the following must be true:

Not sure what expansion you're basing this off of, but...

Rythbryt is currently charting melee weapons; I'm sure blasters and rifles will come up later.