19 hours ago, MerryVulture said:

How would it pair with an Imperial admiral, versus a rebel admiral? Or are you going to make us wait for the Aug 8 article?

Well, Imperial stouts are characterised by how dark and complex they are, so I'm guessing it's idea for an Imperial admiral. The Galway/Teelings one - called Two Hundred Fathoms, if you want to look it up - is probably akin to Tarkin in that it's expensive, very strong yet tremendously smooth. It's a complex, interesting drink that impresses and surprises the more time you give it. It very much rewards the investment. Compare that to the one I'm drinking right now, which is by a Meath brewery called Boyne Brewhouse and aged in both sherry and whiskey casks; it's still an Imperial stout, but it's much more like Jerjerrod. It's considerably cheaper, and not quite as strong, but it's surprisingly refined, with an interesting start that tails out into a pleasing finish. It can be a little harsh compared to other Imperials, but it's worth it.

19 hours ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

@MerryVultureand @NakedDex you are my people. BTW where is this Galway brewery?

Galway Bay Brewing is based in, I believe, Salthill in Galway. Certainly their flagship bar which serves their beer and many other Irish craft beers is there. Myself and the better half make regular pilgrimages there to taste the dozen or so rotating tap offerings, and inhale entire buckets of their ridiculously good wings whose hot sauce is made in house using their DIPA.

18 hours ago, The Rebel Fleet said:

Side note, the more Bourbon involved the more I end up quoting The Hunt For Red October and Top Gun!

I never need a reason to quote Top Gun at length. I own about 6 copies on DVD at any one time. I actively leave them in the houses of friends I visit if I realise they don't have a copy. It's like a public service. I'm nice like that.

@NakedDex I have added Galway to my bucket list. As well as Boyne Brewhouse. Tarkin huh? Yes, I can easily see that. Thanks for the pairings!

On 6/14/2017 at 1:15 PM, Drasnighta said:

Well, the first is always a possibility - it depends if they feel like tapping the community for information - and that's just in if.

The second would be completely unprecedented. There is the possibility we'll get a Launch article when they hit "in stores now" or "shipping now" which holds it, but there's basically been at least one unspoiled card in each release since Wave 2, I believe... At least, there always seemed to be one or two that were unspoiled until the end - its just a rarity that at this point, its the same card for each.

Not even close

Based on historical Armada wave release trends, of which we really don't have enough consistent data points to truly call a trend, these were never going to hit stores before the 29th. I started to be concerned about that when the preview articles didn't mention anything about q2. But I still believed in the 29th. Now that that is in all likely hood out we get to watch just how bad they fumbled on this one.

But it was never going to be before the 29th....... per our inadequate data. Haha

48 minutes ago, Tirion said:

Not even close

What's not even Close?

This is when a little communication from FFG would be nice. Not that that will ever happen....but it would be nice.

8 hours ago, Drasnighta said:

What's not even Close?

We were given all of the info for whatever wave(s) we had the competition for.

4 minutes ago, Tirion said:

We were given all of the info for whatever wave(s) we had the competition for.

I don't believe that's true either.

We were shown all of the new cards, but we were withheld information on cards that were additionally included.

(Not that many people cared that there were additional copies of Engineering Captain at that point )

And even then... 2 out of 7 pseudo-waves hardly warrants an assholistic "Not Even Close"... That's a pretty good record, honestly. ANd it looks even better when its broken down into releases rather than waves.

1 minute ago, Drasnighta said:

I don't believe that's true either.

We were shown all of the new cards, but we were withheld information on cards that were additionally included.

(Not that many people cared that there were additional copies of Engineering Captain at that point )

And even then... 2 out of 7 hardly warrants an assholistic "Not Even Close"... That's a pretty good record, honestly.

Actually we knew we'd get the engineer caps cuz they were in the spread I believe.

But you are right imo, and those were clearly a special circumstance.

Just under 30% of the time we have been shown everything.... So it's not even close to every time is all. Just facts not trying to be an ******* sorry.

9 hours ago, Tirion said:

Based on historical Armada wave release trends, of which we really don't have enough consistent data points to truly call a trend, these were never going to hit stores before the 29th. I started to be concerned about that when the preview articles didn't mention anything about q2. But I still believed in the 29th. Now that that is in all likely hood out we get to watch just how bad they fumbled on this one.

But it was never going to be before the 29th....... per our inadequate data. Haha

Exactly, we can't take a Trend. So without a Trend, what do we take? We take FFG (and Asmodee's) own statement of how long it takes... We also marry that "mission statement" with the comments that were put out in March in regards to the work they've done with their Supply Chain to improve it, and specifically, how they're not announcing something is doing something until its guaranteed to be doing that something...

Which gives us this:

They went on the Boat on the 11th of April.

FFG's target is 4-6 Weeks.

Given the benefit of the doubt (and some trending, in the fact that we had one massively delayed wave that breaks all trends or averages), I worked my original prediction on this:

8 weeks turned up to the 6th of June. Adding 2 Weeks (standard) for Shipping Now, would be the 22nd of June for the Release.

This was the original FFG target I was given (back in April) when things turned.... For all of the matters that FFG could effect, that was the Padded Goal.

Further things have clearly happened outside of FFG's Control (and most likely, outside complete of FFG's knowledge - the delay is most likely in Packing, Shipping, Unloading, or Customs Clearance) - there hasn't been any specific Stevedore-related issues, but just because they don't hit the International News, doesn't mean they don't happen.

...

I also challenge the "Less than 30%"

Core set was not completely spoiled.

Wave 1 (AF, Gladiator, Fighter Packs) were not completely spoiled, as they didn't do full spoils back then. (The News articles are really rudimentary back then)

Wave 2 was not spoiled in Article, it was spoiled by Sullust

Wave 3 and 4 - even if I grant that these were completely spoiled for the competition - they were spoiled in minimum value only.

Wave 5 was not completely spoiled.

Wave 6 is not delivered yet.

And we've always seemed to be saying "And they don't spoil every card for their games, including X-Wing, as it gives a reason for people to be excited to still purchase quickly and post it..."...

Soooooo we are expecting a July release?

4 minutes ago, Undeadguy said:

Soooooo we are expecting a July release?

Judging from previous statements in other threads - (including ones I weight very heavily due to circumstance of who and what they come from) - the answer is maybe.

As of late last week, the internal call was essentially "About one month out, if all goes to plan.".

Its also the part of the system where things don't often go to plan.

Which means its probably in unloading and customs clearance. Then shipping to HQ. Then consolidating and outshipping International. Then local Distributors. The Consolidating and outshipping generally becomes "Shipping Now".

So in essence:

If you're Overly-Optomistic and Happy. Early-July.

If you're running on Averages and generally believe the people in charge when they give a target: Mid/Late July.

If you're a generally pessimistic b-stard... Then August.

15 minutes ago, Drasnighta said:

Judging from previous statements in other threads - (including ones I weight very heavily due to circumstance of who and what they come from) - the answer is maybe.

As of late last week, the internal call was essentially "About one month out, if all goes to plan.".

Its also the part of the system where things don't often go to plan.

Which means its probably in unloading and customs clearance. Then shipping to HQ. Then consolidating and outshipping International. Then local Distributors. The Consolidating and outshipping generally becomes "Shipping Now".

So in essence:

If you're Overly-Optomistic and Happy. Early-July.

If you're running on Averages and generally believe the people in charge when they give a target: Mid/Late July.

If you're a generally pessimistic b-stard... Then August.

The way I see it, the longer it takes, the more money I save not buying new things. I'll have to start proxying upgrade cards to test new fleets.

43 minutes ago, Drasnighta said:

Exactly, we can't take a Trend. So without a Trend, what do we take? We take FFG (and Asmodee's) own statement of how long it takes... We also marry that "mission statement" with the comments that were put out in March in regards to the work they've done with their Supply Chain to improve it, and specifically, how they're not announcing something is doing something until its guaranteed to be doing that something...

Which gives us this:

They went on the Boat on the 11th of April.

FFG's target is 4-6 Weeks.

Given the benefit of the doubt (and some trending, in the fact that we had one massively delayed wave that breaks all trends or averages), I worked my original prediction on this:

8 weeks turned up to the 6th of June. Adding 2 Weeks (standard) for Shipping Now, would be the 22nd of June for the Release.

This was the original FFG target I was given (back in April) when things turned.... For all of the matters that FFG could effect, that was the Padded Goal.

Further things have clearly happened outside of FFG's Control (and most likely, outside complete of FFG's knowledge - the delay is most likely in Packing, Shipping, Unloading, or Customs Clearance) - there hasn't been any specific Stevedore-related issues, but just because they don't hit the International News, doesn't mean they don't happen.

...

I also challenge the "Less than 30%"

Core set was not completely spoiled.

Wave 1 (AF, Gladiator, Fighter Packs) were not completely spoiled, as they didn't do full spoils back then. (The News articles are really rudimentary back then)

Wave 2 was not spoiled in Article, it was spoiled by Sullust

Wave 3 and 4 - even if I grant that these were completely spoiled for the competition - they were spoiled in minimum value only.

Wave 5 was not completely spoiled.

Wave 6 is not delivered yet.

And we've always seemed to be saying "And they don't spoil every card for their games, including X-Wing, as it gives a reason for people to be excited to still purchase quickly and post it..."...

I was only counting the contest waves as spoiled.... So just under 30%........ I was using your 2 of 7

Just now, Tirion said:

I was only counting the contest waves as spoiled.... So just under 30%........ I was using your 2 of 7

Mate, mate...

My distinct apologies.

I completely misread what you said... I thought you were arguing the opposite, that we'd been "unspoiled", less than 30% of the Time

So no worrie s- you're totally right. Your data and my data backs up

I just misread it...

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN I'M FORCED TO DRINK BLACK, UNSWEETENED, DECAF COFFEE....

I mean, its not like I need a Working Heart, Right?

@CaribbeanNinja. . . was it you who reserved the right to post this?

Java Download Link

12 minutes ago, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

@CaribbeanNinja. . . was it you who reserved the right to post this?

Java Download Link

Man I wish I knew what you were talking about.

Do you mean that whenever Dras mentions coffee we should link Java?

That's pretty cruel, since he mentions coffee in his posts like 25% of the time. (That is an exaggerated estimate based on true data.)

1 minute ago, CaribbeanNinja said:

Man I wish I knew what you were talking about.

Do you mean that whenever Dras mentions coffee we should link Java?

That's pretty cruel, since he mentions coffee in his posts like 25% of the time. (That is an exaggerated estimate based on true data.)

I forget who it was. . . but somebody had in their signature a bit of text that said they reserved the right to post the above link whenever Drasnighta complained about coffee. . . I am not sure why or how it got started, but I have seen somebody post it, and Dras did it once as well. I get the connection anyway. I asked you 'cause my brain told me you may have had something to do with it. . . oh well, it's been wrong before.

I am not sure if it was originally intended to be rude, I hope it wasn't. If it offends/annoys you @Drasnighta, let me know.

It was @ianediger.

And yes. It started as a Joke because I was.

I try to keep it joke-some, because its honestly very heartbreaking... Now having a medical condition that means, coupled with my allergies, the very few things I enjoyed in my eating life as excesses are now barred from me.

I can't have artificial colours or flavours, and even some natural ones (throwing bad reactions to Raspberries, for example), which meant my 'treat' things were more along the lines of Cheese and Jerky... But I now have to cut Sodium to virtually Zero.

I also have to cut Caffiene to Zero, after being a coffee addict ever since before the Air Force.

And I don't get to drink Alcohol.

So yeah.

I try to keep it joking.

2 minutes ago, Drasnighta said:

It was @ianediger.

And yes. It started as a Joke because I was.

I try to keep it joke-some, because its honestly very heartbreaking... Now having a medical condition that means, coupled with my allergies, the very few things I enjoyed in my eating life as excesses are now barred from me.

I can't have artificial colours or flavours, and even some natural ones (throwing bad reactions to Raspberries, for example), which meant my 'treat' things were more along the lines of Cheese and Jerky... But I now have to cut Sodium to virtually Zero.

I also have to cut Caffiene to Zero, after being a coffee addict ever since before the Air Force.

And I don't get to drink Alcohol.

So yeah.

I try to keep it joking.

I feel bad for you now... there is always a sad truth behind a rules guru...

2 minutes ago, Drasnighta said:

It was @ianediger.

And yes. It started as a Joke because I was.

I try to keep it joke-some, because its honestly very heartbreaking... Now having a medical condition that means, coupled with my allergies, the very few things I enjoyed in my eating life as excesses are now barred from me.

I can't have artificial colours or flavours, and even some natural ones (throwing bad reactions to Raspberries, for example), which meant my 'treat' things were more along the lines of Cheese and Jerky... But I now have to cut Sodium to virtually Zero.

I also have to cut Caffiene to Zero, after being a coffee addict ever since before the Air Force.

And I don't get to drink Alcohol.

So yeah.

I try to keep it joking.

Ouch. Sorry, I didn't know. In the interest of being helpful - yet, sadly, potentially disappointing - I feel compelled to warn you that rumors say decaf coffee isn't decaf. . .

Cheese and Jerky sounds great! Wish I had jerky. . .

Anyways, if you want me to not post it, please let me know.

Just now, GhostofNobodyInParticular said:

Ouch. Sorry, I didn't know. In the interest of being helpful - yet, sadly, potentially disappointing - I feel compelled to warn you that rumors say decaf coffee isn't decaf. . .

Cheese and Jerky sounds great! Wish I had jerky. . .

Anyways, if you want me to not post it, please let me know.

Oh, I'm well aware. Its a compromise for what remains of my sanity, as it is heavily reduced.

I was a 10-cup a day drinker. Now I have 1 cup of Decaf coffee in the morning, one cup of black tea in the afternoon, and the rest of the day, I rely on herbal teas and infusions, which, let's face it... Are dirty water.

So no dirty water. No treats.

(And yes, for the record, I'm one of the ultra-rare people who are allergic to Chocolate - which is often billed as to be "rare enough to be non-existent.".. yeah.)

4 minutes ago, Visovics said:

I feel bad for you now... there is always a sad truth behind a rules guru...

I'm Trying

But now you know the reason behind why I seem to go very Hot-and-Cold, and very Anti-Negativating, Pro-Positivity at times... When I have a bad day, I'm literally feling like I'm dying in my chair, as my Blood pressure Rollercoasters...

That, and I'm generally a bit of an arsehole already Just my nature.

I get down, I tryto not let it get through, but it has in the past - and then I've overcompensated with Snark.

But hey, that's enough of the Whine-Fest today


---

Rest assured, I've got an Update Macro going on the Updates Page, checking it for text Changes... It has a 100% Detection Rate thus far... Unfortunately, it has a 45% notification rate of Detection, so its still a Crapshoot wther I see it first , or 20 minutes after it Updates.... Either way, when I see a change, I'll let people know here...

But as I stated earlier, I trust the source which said "About a Month out" last week. That Source in the past has been hyper-reliable.

Yep, it was me. Since we no longer have signatures, and since the mobile forum is really bad on my phone for some reason, I've stopped with the Java links.