It's not that I don't think there are effective reasons for taking the BSP over the alpha, I just don't like some of the reasoning that has been posted. PS 1->4 is a good pro for the BSP. Possibly cheaper cost or some utility or synergy from an EPT is also a good deal. It is when people try to make the BSP have more/better attack, even going so far as to make it 18 points, that I feel like the Alpha is just the better choice.

The guys who are pro PS 1 Interceptors are also taking into account that it is indeed, PS 1 - meaning, it won't have a focus token to spend to modify its attacks most of the time, whereas the BSP will (vs most other generics).

There are two problems with this:

1) Unless your opponent sucks they're going to be focusing fire on one ship at a time whenever possible, so only one ship should be alive with a spent focus token. Everyone else gets to keep their focus for offense.

2) If the alphas are spending their focus on defense and the BSPs aren't then the BSPs are dead. Both ships have the exact same defensive stats, so if both of them take the same incoming fire every hit that an alpha negated by spending focus is a hit that damages a BSP. So, if anything, this comparison favors the alpha because at PS 1 you have already rolled all of your defense dice are free to spend your focus on offense if you still have it. The BSP, on the other hand, often has to decide whether or not to spend focus on offense before knowing how many eyes they're going to see on defense.

In short, you have to assume equal focus availability for both ships. And when you do the firepower comparison indisputably favors the alpha. The ONLY advantage the predator BSP gets is PS 4 vs. PS 1.

It was okay as filler, but it wasn't as amazing as some people are making it out to be. So yeah, just underwhelming. Part of the issue is that it's completely useless when you roll well, and it's far easier to roll two natural hits on a TIE than a ship with a higher primary weapon value.

Which gets back to my point about Alpha Squadron...

I think it'd be easier to understand phrased differently.

Looking at BSP + Predator...you get to roll 3 dice (sometimes 4), and keep your best 2 rolls.

With Alpha Squadron...you get to roll 3 dice, and keep your best 3 rolls.

The ONLY advantage the predator BSP gets is PS 4 vs. PS 1.

And the Predator reroll, because, dice.

The ONLY advantage the predator BSP gets is PS 4 vs. PS 1.

And the Predator reroll, because, dice.

The point I've been trying to make for pages now is that 3 dice is at worst equal to 2 dice with 1 reroll, and sometimes it's better. (25% of the time without focus, and 42% with focus).

The ONLY advantage the predator BSP gets is PS 4 vs. PS 1.

And the Predator reroll, because, dice.

The point I've been trying to make for pages now is that 3 dice is at worst equal to 2 dice with 1 reroll, and sometimes it's better. (25% of the time without focus, and 42% with focus).

mathematically, yes. However, is there any way to judge the consistency of hits from 2 dice with 1 reroll versus 3 without?

The ONLY advantage the predator BSP gets is PS 4 vs. PS 1.

And the Predator reroll, because, dice.

The point I've been trying to make for pages now is that 3 dice is at worst equal to 2 dice with 1 reroll, and sometimes it's better. (25% of the time without focus, and 42% with focus).

mathematically, yes. However, is there any way to judge the consistency of hits from 2 dice with 1 reroll versus 3 without?

Yes, and 3 dice wins. Think about it this way: you throw two dice, and Predator allows you to throw a third die--but only if you had fewer than two successes on the first two dice. If you have three dice instead, you have precisely the same results, except that you always get the third die.

The two situations have exactly the same chance of producing 0 or 1 successes. The only difference is that having three dice takes some results out of Predator's chance to roll 2 successes and turns them into 3 successes.

The ONLY advantage the predator BSP gets is PS 4 vs. PS 1.

And the Predator reroll, because, dice.

The point I've been trying to make for pages now is that 3 dice is at worst equal to 2 dice with 1 reroll, and sometimes it's better. (25% of the time without focus, and 42% with focus).

mathematically, yes. However, is there any way to judge the consistency of hits from 2 dice with 1 reroll versus 3 without?

There have been a few in this thread alone. . .

The ONLY advantage the predator BSP gets is PS 4 vs. PS 1.

And the Predator reroll, because, dice.

The point I've been trying to make for pages now is that 3 dice is at worst equal to 2 dice with 1 reroll, and sometimes it's better. (25% of the time without focus, and 42% with focus).

mathematically, yes. However, is there any way to judge the consistency of hits from 2 dice with 1 reroll versus 3 without?

Yes, and 3 dice wins. Think about it this way: you throw two dice, and Predator allows you to throw a third die--but only if you had fewer than two successes on the first two dice. If you have three dice instead, you have precisely the same results, except that you always get the third die.

The two situations have exactly the same chance of producing 0 or 1 successes. The only difference is that having three dice takes some results out of Predator's chance to roll 2 successes and turns them into 3 successes.

I admit that stats has never been my strong point, but this makes sense. Thanks for explaining it in a clear way.

It seems that this whole debate is based on the feeling that a reroll is better than no reroll, regardless of how many dice are involved. If we think of a reroll as additional "optional" dice, it helps the non-mathematical part of the brain.

Consider this, an Alpha and a Black with Predator joust, back and forth, until one dies.

Who wins more times out of ten?

The answer should be pretty clear, and that's why I use that ship over the competition.

I never realized I was dividing the X-wing community on such a polar issue, that being said, I can either max out my list points and hope there aren't any 9's to pop whisper, or I can run black squads with predator for a 2 point initiative bid OOORRRRR run Soontir with PTL and TC to make this thread pointless.

Another reason is that it is also far cheaper to acquire lots of black squadron pilots than alot of alpha's. Since Imp aces doesn't come with them.

$40(30) for 2 BSP in core

$15(10) for 1 BSP xpac

Not seeing the cheapness?

Why would having alphas in Aces be cheaper anyways? Its twice the cost of a single ship xpac.

because there are two ships in Aces, and they are usually sold cheaper. Heck I just picked up an Imp Aces yesterday on sale for $15.

And as far as the cheapness goes, you are right IF you only use predator. When I typically run Black Squadrons with Predator, I ALSO include Black Squadrons with Outmaneuver.

And for a build, people typically already own lots of TIEs. I don't know too many people who have more than 2 regular interceptor expansions. Especially nowadays... if people want lots of interceptors they just buy Imp Aces because it's more cost effective.

Another reason is that it is also far cheaper to acquire lots of black squadron pilots than alot of alpha's. Since Imp aces doesn't come with them.

$40(30) for 2 BSP in core

$15(10) for 1 BSP xpac

Not seeing the cheapness?

Why would having alphas in Aces be cheaper anyways? Its twice the cost of a single ship xpac.

because there are two ships in Aces, and they are usually sold cheaper. Heck I just picked up an Imp Aces yesterday on sale for $15.

And as far as the cheapness goes, you are right IF you only use predator. When I typically run Black Squadrons with Predator, I ALSO include Black Squadrons with Outmaneuver.

And for a build, people typically already own lots of TIEs. I don't know too many people who have more than 2 regular interceptor expansions. Especially nowadays... if people want lots of interceptors they just buy Imp Aces because it's more cost effective.

unless you want Alphas

Consider this, an Alpha and a Black with Predator joust, back and forth, until one dies.

Who wins more times out of ten?

The answer should be pretty clear, and that's why I use that ship over the competition.

The Alpha as its extra die lets it take down the BSP faster unless the BSP gets a really lucky kill in first.

I don't actually think the jousting example is very clear. Their average damage will be roughly the same (unfocused), with a slight edge toward the Alpha, but the Black will fire first. Throw in the fact that between two ships with Barrel Roll, a higher PS becomes much more useful, and I'd probably lean on the Black in that case, but it's really probably up to the dice.

I never realized I was dividing the X-wing community on such a polar issue, that being said, I can either max out my list points and hope there aren't any 9's to pop whisper, or I can run black squads with predator for a 2 point initiative bid OOORRRRR run Soontir with PTL and TC to make this thread pointless.

Oh, you can polarize the board here on virtually any issue. It's actually kind of amazing to me that we only have a couple of real trolls, since it's fertile ground for resentment and petty bickering--which isn't to say that I'm not drawn into it more often than not.

The reason I brought up the Interceptor counterpoint here is because I've seen a few posts lately saying that Interceptors are (or should be) falling out of the metagame again due to Falcons' market share climbing sharply--and at least one post saying that Alpha Squadron sucks. I'm not sure the former is justified, since Alpha Squadron has the best offensive efficiency of any ship in the game and therefore matches up well against the Falcon's worst offensive efficiency in the game. And I'm certain the latter isn't justified.

Then people started saying demonstrably untrue things like "but BSP + Predator is more consistent", and, well...

I never realized I was dividing the X-wing community on such a polar issue, that being said, I can either max out my list points and hope there aren't any 9's to pop whisper, or I can run black squads with predator for a 2 point initiative bid OOORRRRR run Soontir with PTL and TC to make this thread pointless.

Oh, you can polarize the board here on virtually any issue. It's actually kind of amazing to me that we only have a couple of real trolls, since it's fertile ground for resentment and petty bickering--which isn't to say that I'm not drawn into it more often than not.

The reason I brought up the Interceptor counterpoint here is because I've seen a few posts lately saying that Interceptors are (or should be) falling out of the metagame again due to Falcons' market share climbing sharply--and at least one post saying that Alpha Squadron sucks. I'm not sure the former is justified, since Alpha Squadron has the best offensive efficiency of any ship in the game and therefore matches up well against the Falcon's worst offensive efficiency in the game. And I'm certain the latter isn't justified.

Then people started saying demonstrably untrue things like "but BSP + Predator is more consistent", and, well...

Well, I always appreciate your input on my posts The dice breakdown helped me look at it differently.

I have a serious question: why do people prefer Black Squadron + Predator to Alpha Squadron?

Black Squadron Predator costs the same as Mithel and one more than Backstabber and Dark Curse. Personally I think I'd prefer the named guys.

I have a serious question: why do people prefer Black Squadron + Predator to Alpha Squadron?

Black Squadron Predator costs the same as Mithel and one more than Backstabber and Dark Curse. Personally I think I'd prefer the named guys.

.... I could run Backstabber and Dark Curse then put FCS on Whisper.... hmmm....

I don't actually think the jousting example is very clear. Their average damage will be roughly the same (unfocused), with a slight edge toward the Alpha, but the Black will fire first. Throw in the fact that between two ships with Barrel Roll, a higher PS becomes much more useful, and I'd probably lean on the Black in that case, but it's really probably up to the dice.

Shooting first definitely helps the BSP argument but it still can only hit with two dice while the Alpha can hit with three. The only way for the TIE to one shot the Alpha is to get both of its rolls past defense and have at least one of those be a face up card that provides additional damage. The Alpha has that same option plus the chance that it can actually slip all 3 dice past defense dealing lethal damage without turning up a single crit.

Black Squadron Predator costs the same as Mithel and one more than Backstabber and Dark Curse. Personally I think I'd prefer the named guys.

This is pretty much what I've been advocating all along.

Another reason is that it is also far cheaper to acquire lots of black squadron pilots than alot of alpha's. Since Imp aces doesn't come with them.

$40(30) for 2 BSP in core

$15(10) for 1 BSP xpac

Not seeing the cheapness?

Why would having alphas in Aces be cheaper anyways? Its twice the cost of a single ship xpac.

because there are two ships in Aces, and they are usually sold cheaper. Heck I just picked up an Imp Aces yesterday on sale for $15.

And as far as the cheapness goes, you are right IF you only use predator. When I typically run Black Squadrons with Predator, I ALSO include Black Squadrons with Outmaneuver.

And for a build, people typically already own lots of TIEs. I don't know too many people who have more than 2 regular interceptor expansions. Especially nowadays... if people want lots of interceptors they just buy Imp Aces because it's more cost effective.

I didn't mention predator that was someone else. I was talking BSP vs Alpha for cheapness. Lucky flash sales aside, your main argument then is that BSP are cheaper because you already have them? I don't

Predator is a great card don't get me wrong, but I do think it works more effectively on ships shooting at least 3 attack dice or more. The more dice you roll, the more likely for blanks to show up.