Hi all,

First off, I posted my tournament report from 3rd place over at http://www.agotcards.org/talkboard/v/858 . Probably it's a good idea to read that first. Sorry you haven't heard from me in quite some time, but I had quit the game for personal reasons and never thought I'd be coming back. But I just couldn't resist it. I love most people in the game way too much, and you're almost all my friends and important to me. On to the analysis!

On TLV:

At the moment, my expectation and hope is a ban. I know some people are discussing ways to "handle" it here on the boards, but, for example, restricting it doesn't help. Or, rather, it only helps really against Targ, who abuse Long Lances in the deck for the win. Targ did "okay" at the NYC regionals, but surprisingly, two out of the three Targ TLV decks (that I saw) didn't make it into the top 8…only one did, and admittedly it won the regional, but I beat it pretty badly in the regular tournament. I was running GJ TLV. So it seems like GJ TLV can be a pretty hard counter vs Targ TLV. But Targ TLV maybe rules all other decks right now, with Martell TLV being a toss up in the matchup. My GJ TLV deck did really well, going 5-2 with only a loss in the first round, and in the top 4 (to the Martell TLV deck), and I think GJ TLV is pretty gross, since one of GJ's issues in the past was not really being able to include enough things other than locations. In the game I beat the Targ TLV eventual winner, I drew all three Risen from the Sea within the first two turns, and I don't know that there's a Targ deck alive that can run that over (not when I can rush with renown/holy chars pretty consistently).

Anyway, the point is, for all the decks I saw other than the Targ one mentioned (which used Long Lances, as mentioned), it would almost not have hurt them at all to restrict TLV. My deck, for example, loses…a refugee. The Martell deck loses Viper's Bannermen, but I honestly don't think that was too big of a deal for it - it had enough other draw that it shouldn't have mattered, I think (I could be mistaken - perhaps the owner of that deck would prefer to chime in?). Bara TLV loses…Val, or a refugee? Or what? I'm honestly not sure. I know it's a good deck, but I don't think it needs Val to win, as long as it can find a few other ways to draw, Bay of Ice perhaps, Ravens + Sam maybe. I don't think TLV can just be restricted and expected to not do really well in future tournaments, also.

On Long Lances + Street Waif:

This combo is still massively overpowered. In the run up to the event, I faced a deck running it several times, and there's just nothing I could do about it. In the game against the Targ TLV deck in the final round of the tournament that I faced, I just got lucky and my opponent got kind of unlucky, and I used Godswood Attendant to throw a bunch of crappy cards into his discard pile (admittedly, he was using it early on to cause more issues, but I had to Bungled Orders into a Valar to kill the Street Waif finally, which meant simply that I was very lucky he didn't get a To Be a Dragon in his hand early on - though, granted, if he had, I would have Confessioned it away). I think Street Waif needs to be restricted. I thought it was, in fact, until Dave showed me it was clearly not. I'm not sure, but it might help to, instead, make To Be a Dragon deathbound.

On Stark:

I feel like Stark is a bit weak right now. My friend Ryan and I built a Stark murder knights deck for this tournament, and while Ryan is pretty new to the game, he didn't win a single game, even though he didn't face a single TLV deck (to my knowledge). Has Stark fallen so low? I believe it was also the least popular of the TLV decks this regionals season, though I could be badly misshapen on that - perhaps Lanni? (Certainly Neutral house card was, but I'm not counting that.)

On non-Targ-based control decks:

I feel these are lagging way behind right now, and aggro decks are the only thing that can really win tournaments these days. GJ has some tricky control cards, but unless they have a strong rush component to them, I don't see them winning. Has control gone the way of the dinosaur? I think it has. Lanni kneel is still quite weak, though I'm sure there's some TLV variant that isn't bad. As mentioned, I think Stark murder/control is not capable of competing right now, and while burn is a powerhouse with TLV, its major component is aggro and the burn is just there to make the aggro stronger (I feel).

I think I'll leave it at that. There's more I want to say, but it involves things too personal to go into (such as people laughing at me and making fun of me in front of and behind my back just because I shaved my head), and I'd rather have a positive day than a negative one. Let me know your thoughts on the above!

Kyle

Nice job Kyle!

As the Stark deck that you murdered in the third round, I have to agree with your assessment there. There are too many ways to get around their kill events right now (especially with GJ) and straight up murder decks hit a wall at a certain point if they can't keep the board relatively clear (especially against TLV decks). I may give Stark Wildlings a shot once the new Jon Snow comes out, but until then I think I need to jump ship and get on the TLV bandwagon until/if it gets nerfed. If you can't beat em, join em...

Glad you're back, Kyle.

Personally, I'm not too upset Stark Murder is having a hard time right now. Not having any characters on the board turn after turn is a NPE. I believe it was my misconception that all games get to this point that kept me from playing the CCG and I only gave the game a second chance well into the LCG reboot.

The problem is Stark murder is all they have. When two of your three restricted cards are murder, what the heck are the non-restricted cards? Haha.

I don't know this Ryan and his deck, but I've only seen one person ever pull off Stark well, and that was Ethan. I think its because people seem to treat murder like burn, but its not. Murder is an aggro technique to wipe the player's board on turn one and get a claim 2 intrigue challenge, and force them to dump their hand on turn 2 so on turn 3 you reset with them exhausted. Then follow with claim 2 plots. In order for murder to work, and I know this is irony but its true YOU NEED INTRIGUE!!!

Mr. Wolfgang---

I would just like to say you have made an excellent post in which I agree with you on most points. The only thing I am not sure about (and I agree with everything else you have written) is about street waif. Waif is probably restriction worthy, but I would almost rather have the targ problem solved in other ways. What other ways? Well I just don't know. But I don't like restricted 2 cost allys with powerful effects--maybe it is the only way though..

So, it seems you've changed your mind about Stark...

I'm a big fan of Control and think it's only consistent right now out of Targ. That royally sucks for Martell and Lannister. Simply banning TLV all but fixes this problem, though.

And in the current meta, Forgotten Plans really should be everywhere.

Mr. Wolfgang---

I would just like to say you have made an excellent post in which I agree with you on most points. The only thing I am not sure about (and I agree with everything else you have written) is about street waif. Waif is probably restriction worthy, but I would almost rather have the targ problem solved in other ways. What other ways? Well I just don't know. But I don't like restricted 2 cost allys with powerful effects--maybe it is the only way though..

I can understand that. I'm honestly not sure of her strength level. It's really the Long Lances in any deck that make her broken.

@PulseGlazer - Yes, I've changed my mind hence. It's a funny thing. All it takes is one idea to take off and it changes my worldview on a particular house. Now I just need to also reinvent Lannister and I'll feel good.

I dunno, i still think control is around, i just think its less about the big control combos and more about the smaller controlling cards. Cards that you don't normally base a deck around. Small controlling interactions seem to be enough to control a game now. For example, things like Sun Stroke, Nightmares, Parting Blow, Greenblood Merchant, Orphans. All of these cards are small controlling cards. They don't have a huge impact on the game unless you can consistently use them over and over again. If you can build a deck to do this, it tends to be pretty strong.

Sure, its not hard control but it is still a form of control. I'd say that hard control is probably not to strong out of Martell and Lannister anymore. However, they still have access to small control cards that when used together and repeatedly generates a rather interesting control platform.

So,

I dunno, i still think control is around, i just think its less about the big control combos and more about the smaller controlling cards. Cards that you don't normally base a deck around. Small controlling interactions seem to be enough to control a game now. For example, things like Sun Stroke, Nightmares, Parting Blow, Greenblood Merchant, Orphans. All of these cards are small controlling cards. They don't have a huge impact on the game unless you can consistently use them over and over again. If you can build a deck to do this, it tends to be pretty strong.

Sure, its not hard control but it is still a form of control. I'd say that hard control is probably not to strong out of Martell and Lannister anymore. However, they still have access to small control cards that when used together and repeatedly generates a rather interesting control platform.

Combo is an issue for Martell in particular for one reallllly obvious reason.

So,

I dunno, i still think control is around, i just think its less about the big control combos and more about the smaller controlling cards. Cards that you don't normally base a deck around. Small controlling interactions seem to be enough to control a game now. For example, things like Sun Stroke, Nightmares, Parting Blow, Greenblood Merchant, Orphans. All of these cards are small controlling cards. They don't have a huge impact on the game unless you can consistently use them over and over again. If you can build a deck to do this, it tends to be pretty strong.

Sure, its not hard control but it is still a form of control. I'd say that hard control is probably not to strong out of Martell and Lannister anymore. However, they still have access to small control cards that when used together and repeatedly generates a rather interesting control platform.

Combo is an issue for Martell in particular for one reallllly obvious reason.

Maybe its because i'm so tired and just woke up but i don't see your point here. Do you mean combos out of Martell are hard to do or do you mean that combo decks are hard for martell to deal with?

If it is the first one, i wouldn't say that martell really has a problem doing them. To be honest, i probably said it the wrong way. It would be more accurate to say that the big power plays of control aren't consistent enough to work right now out of Martell. The smaller ones when done repeatedly tend to generate a more steady stream of control that is far more consistent right now.