In general, these are the questions I have:

1) Do fleets more or less determine the winner (standard game, none of the expansions)?

2) Would adding ports change this?

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Having played the game a few times in the last month, several things appear true. Those of you who have played more often, do you agree with these?

1) Control of Ironman's Bay does much to prevent enemies from taking any of the land-territories around it.

2) Control of Ironman's Bay AND The Golden Sound AND Sunset Sea makes it virtually impossible for an opponent to take either the land territories around Ironman's Bay or to retake any of those three sea-territories.

Specifically, assuming supply is ok, a person with control of those three sea-territories can stop incursions with ships and an un-raid-able support order in Ironman's Bay. A defense order in Sunset Sea is nearly unstoppable (since it can't be raided away and it serves as a barrier from support orders in the two other sea-territories).

3) Offhand, it appears that in a 4-person game, the Lannisters have the best set-up. They are in the best position to take those three sea-territories -- Starks will have to wait for a first muster to put any ships in the west and by that time Lannisters will have mustered. The Tyrells CAN interfere with this by moving a ship into Sunset Sea before the first muster, but that puts their ship in a position where they'll likely need Stark support to keep it -- they don't have as many cities/fortresses near them which means they'll have trouble keeping pace with the Lannisters in a naval arms race without help.

4) The Baratheons have a similarly good set-up in a 4-person game (an early start on a navy), but the lack of immediate supplies are going to hurt their ability to put ships in the water.

5) In a five-person game, the Greyjoys have a distinct advantage in that western area because they already start in Ironman's Bay with 2 ships and the Iron Sword. They can likely hold Ironman's Bay AND move into the Sunset Sea on the first turn, use the first muster to solidify their hold on these sea-territories, and then wait for the opportunity to knock out the Lannister navy. Still, because the west IS so crowded, the Baratheons may well have a slight advantage, though the territories to be gained from their nearest three sea-territory blockade are not nearly as valuable as the one that the Greyjoys hope to get.

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Agree/disagree with the above? Do you see it as I do that the first to build up a top navy in a good position is very likely to win (since they'll support adjacent land territories and take away the elbow room other families will need to build up their own navies)? How do ports change the dynamics of the above? It seems to be very difficult in the standard game to dislodge a naval power; do ports change that?

On Ships:

Fleets are in my opinion indeed overpowered using only the base game.

Ports do much to fix this problem, as landlocked houses can muster fleets in ports and use them to raid support. (While building up forces to attack if need be.) They should support vulnerable territories from land of course.

I recommend always using ports. Always. Download the rules and use tokens if you don't own the expansion. Buy the expansion for the other stuff (the sixth player also gives a lot of extra balance).

Ships are still vital, however. Focus too much on building ships, however, and you might lose out on controling territory on land, allowing other mustering points, supply and power.

1 and 2) All house have one (or two) territories where they are strongest. As you have correctly surmised, Ironman's bay is Greyjoys. All houses have such strong areas, however.Put some units and a support there, and the surrounding terrain is yours. Howver, this strategy is not enough to conquer the required number of castles. When will you gamble on marching instead of supporting?

3) In a four player game, Lannisters have it great. Instead of having to weasle and backstab their way to victory, they can go for full scale conquest. After a few games, my gaming group realised this and dogpiled Lannister. It's what has to be done in order to keep Lannister from an early win. Poor Lannister, just a few easy games and then right back to weasling and backstabbing.

There is a 4-player map floating around on boardgamegeek I think, that fixes some of these issues. Pyke is gone, and Seagard and Riverrun have been reduces to cities (instead of strongholds). I haven't played it, but it solves the mustering speed of Lannister in a 4-player game a bit.

4+5) The Houses that start with two ships are indeed stronger at sea. This is balanced by the strong points of other Houses. Tyrell and Lannister have supply, Stark can gain power easily. In my games, victory usually goes to the player with the best diplomacy skills. But our games are very vocal....