In general, these are the questions I have:
1) Do fleets more or less determine the winner (standard game, none of the expansions)?
2) Would adding ports change this?
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Having played the game a few times in the last month, several things appear true. Those of you who have played more often, do you agree with these?
1) Control of Ironman's Bay does much to prevent enemies from taking any of the land-territories around it.
2) Control of Ironman's Bay AND The Golden Sound AND Sunset Sea makes it virtually impossible for an opponent to take either the land territories around Ironman's Bay or to retake any of those three sea-territories.
Specifically, assuming supply is ok, a person with control of those three sea-territories can stop incursions with ships and an un-raid-able support order in Ironman's Bay. A defense order in Sunset Sea is nearly unstoppable (since it can't be raided away and it serves as a barrier from support orders in the two other sea-territories).
3) Offhand, it appears that in a 4-person game, the Lannisters have the best set-up. They are in the best position to take those three sea-territories -- Starks will have to wait for a first muster to put any ships in the west and by that time Lannisters will have mustered. The Tyrells CAN interfere with this by moving a ship into Sunset Sea before the first muster, but that puts their ship in a position where they'll likely need Stark support to keep it -- they don't have as many cities/fortresses near them which means they'll have trouble keeping pace with the Lannisters in a naval arms race without help.
4) The Baratheons have a similarly good set-up in a 4-person game (an early start on a navy), but the lack of immediate supplies are going to hurt their ability to put ships in the water.
5) In a five-person game, the Greyjoys have a distinct advantage in that western area because they already start in Ironman's Bay with 2 ships and the Iron Sword. They can likely hold Ironman's Bay AND move into the Sunset Sea on the first turn, use the first muster to solidify their hold on these sea-territories, and then wait for the opportunity to knock out the Lannister navy. Still, because the west IS so crowded, the Baratheons may well have a slight advantage, though the territories to be gained from their nearest three sea-territory blockade are not nearly as valuable as the one that the Greyjoys hope to get.
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Agree/disagree with the above? Do you see it as I do that the first to build up a top navy in a good position is very likely to win (since they'll support adjacent land territories and take away the elbow room other families will need to build up their own navies)? How do ports change the dynamics of the above? It seems to be very difficult in the standard game to dislodge a naval power; do ports change that?