Hello, We have invested a few months into this campaign (this is our first run) so far and I would like to share some statistics and see what people think about starting a new campaign vs continuing this one.
First of all, the conquest totals are 74 heroes and 128 overlord. We are roughly in game week 10. EDIT: Actually heroes have somewhere around 90, I foolishly messed up the totals this session and had to retrace to count them.
The heroes have 17, 3, 7, and 35 exp, they have upgraded mainly dice as well as wounds/fatigue 1 time. I believe they have also purchased 1 tamalir upgrade as well as the staff of the wild and the raft.
The overlord (Spider Queen) has 7 xp of the 128 total, and has purchased the three merricks, all of which have never been encountered, which is apparantly a big mistake for the heroes, I will get to that shortly. She has 'into my parlour', all three mob classes are at silver level, 2 trap treachery and that is about it, save the 3 upgrades I originally bought, one for avatar, one for extra dice for encounters, and one to ditch 4 cards from my deck.
Now it seems to me (overlord) and the heroes that they are very likely to lose this campaign, possibly in just a few turns if I decide to siege Tamalir. I believe the main reasons the heroes lost are these:
1. They have not encountered a lieutenant yet and have not attempted to.
2. Now that I have 2 lieutenants sieging and one on the way to siege and the campaign JUST recently turned to silver, the heroes (having only 1 silver treasure so far) can barely do enough damage to my lieutenants, especially Alrick with his 7 armor and ironskin. I have already razed one city, this will be a second and third if they don't kill them very soon, and then about 2 game weeks later I will begin a siege on Tamalir if I want to show no mercy.
3. In the beginning their strategy was unclear as it is our first playthrough. So they moved southwest immediately to a dungeon, but then they moved back to Tamalir and they continued to move without a destination for quite a few game weeks, which to me seems highly unwise as you should be picking a secret area or boss dungeon or city to head to. Or even hunting down a lieutenant so they can't cause so much damage and leave you in such a dire situation as they are in now with 3 active lieutenants silver class while they have no silver treasures.
4. They have only visited the tavern 1 time and got 1 rumor, though they completed it, it was not the best reward. The one to discard and put a hero to 4 wounds instead of dying, probably one of the worst really. If they had tried to do rumors more often it seems they would have had a chance for at least one of the better rumor rewards and improved their odds.
Here are a few reasons I could think of why the overlord is ahead:
1. My first upgrade was Eldritch, followed by I believe Merrick and trap treachery.
2. The heroes have drawn many of the higher numbered dungeons, including 2 or 3 of the tomb of ice expansion ones. From what I've seen the higher the dungeon the more difficult it is, though this may not always hold true, it certainly does in many cases. Now on top of the dungeon levels being higher they have involved, more then not, eldritch monsters. Meaning the heroes have been pitted against silver mobs for a large portion of the copper campaign, and in some cases (at least 2 or 3) nothing but eldritch.
3. I certainly do not use poor strategies in most situations. But at the same time the heroes make few mistakes as well.
In summation I believe that reason 1 and 2 for the overlord have been huge factors as well as the fact that the heroes never engaged or even chased down a lieutenant in the first 10 weeks or so.
I would greatly appreciate any input on this situation as both the heroes and I are beginning to agree this campaign looks hopeless for them. Even if I weren't to siege Tamalir (which I wouldn't cuz I'm nice) they feel they cannot kill Alrick even with a proper supply of silver treasures. I don't know what to tell them, because I almost agree, it seems you would need perfect rolls and plenty of power potions to stand a chance against alrick at silver campaign level. Please tell me how these fights go as you have surely been through them and similar situations. The final thing that kicked the heroes down making them want to give up, was them hearing the silver stats of Alrick because when they finally wanted to encounter him it was 1 game week after the campaign upgraded to silver.