Crab / Mantis Alliance - Anti-Crane (Mantis Piracy, Yasuki drama) and Pro-Scorpion (Jade from Toshi Ranbo)

Hotaru Crane - Anti-Lion (War for Toshi Ranbo) and Pro-Scorpion (Hotaru and Kachiko relationship) - Currently in Toshi Ranbo

Kuwannan Crane - Anti-Scorpion (Because of Hotaru & Kachiko's relationship) and Pro-Unicorn (Yoshi's coalition)

Dragon - Pro-Crane (Hitomi backing Yoshi as legitimate interim Regent) and Anti-Scorpion (due to Sumiko's accusations)

Lion - Anti-Crane (War for Toshi Ranbo) and Anti-Unicorn (Expansion war for tax farming villages) and Pro-Scorpion (deal with Shoju)

Phoenix - Pro-Crane (Attempting to encourage peace) and Pro-Crab (Tadaka's efforts with the Kuni) and Anti-Unicorn (due to meishodo)

Scorpion - Yes

Unicorn - Anti-Lion (Due to Ikoma shenanigans) and Pro-Crane (Yoshi & Tadaji's treaty negotiations) and Pro-Dragon (adoption deal) and Anti-Phoenix (meishodo argument)

We're in for a good ol' fashioned scrum I think.

What I imagine when I try to connect all this together.

I laughed while reading the Scorpion clan position.

2 hours ago, DSalazar said:

What I imagine when I try to connect all this together.

Well, this last fic lets us condense it down like this:

Yoshi

Kuwannan Crane (Backing him against Hotaru/Kachiko)

Dragon (Hitomi backs Yoshi over Shoju)

Phoenix (The Tsume marriage paid out politically over Toturi/Kaede)

Unicorn (Negotiated alliance via Shizue)

Ujiaki

Lion (As long as he can keep playing Tsuko)

Scorpion? (He seems to think so)

Shoju

Scorpion (minus the Yogo, and as long as Aramoro doesn't slip the leash)

Crab (Gift of jade, and willing to prioritize Shadowlands problems)

Hotaru Crane? (Kachiko confessing to Hotaru)

So the Clan War can be broadly writ as the Yoshi coalition vs the Lion, with the Scorpion and Hotaru's Crane army playing spoiler. Notably, Shoju's team is the only one that knows the truth of events outside of the Miya Satoshi's Kolat. And this only takes into account the movement of armies.

7 minutes ago, Doji Hyōkin said:

Scorpion (minus the Yogo, and as long as Aramoro doesn't slip the leash)

I would say that ship has sailed a long time ago. Correct me if I am wrong but when Shoju sent Kachiko away he couldn’t find Aramoro, right?

7 minutes ago, DSalazar said:

I would say that ship has sailed a long time ago. Correct me if I am wrong but when Shoju sent Kachiko away he couldn’t find Aramoro, right?

Tough to say. Aramoro's in Toshi Ranbo before the death of the Emperor in the Whispers novel. In Behind the Empty Throne Shoju thinks about Aramoro's history with Kachiko & Asami, but there's no indication that he's missing. In Courtly Nets Yoshi remarks to Asami that Aramoro hasn't been seen in several days, but this is after Kachiko is exiled. In Caged Birds Kachiko thinks to herself that without Aramoro, she has to watch her own back.

So his last appearances on-camera is being with Kachiko when they find the Emperor in The Last Stone Played and then his attempted assassination of Toturi in Falling Stars . After he goes out the window with what's left of the strike team, he drops off the radar.

Also:

The Black Lion and Black Dragon - we don't know what Sumiko and Toturi have done after one of the most epic 'I Quit' moments in Rokugani history, but I'm pretty sure they're not just getting wasted in a sake house somewhere.

The Perfect Land Sect - now moving openly on the Dragon Clan borders, with, for a variety of reasons, the current rightful Emperor his 'twu wuv', and the Togashi heir in tow.

I think things break down more or less to Crab (w/ Mantis), Lion, Phoenix and Scorpion vs. Crane, Dragon, Imperials(?) and Unicorn.

But its not like many are particularly committed to those current alliances nor necessarily openly hostile to everyone who is on the other side of the conflict. Particularly when you get down to the individual level.

Though given that the Dragon have a tendency to just go run away and shut themselves away in the mountains until things blow over and the Unicorn isn't even particularly committed to being in Rokugan and already ditched it for most of its history, I can't say that the later group would realistically have much of a chance.

Just gonne repeat what I placed elsewhere...

12 hours ago, Shiba Gunichi said:

Going faction by faction-

The Crab - Currently feeling on the outs with much of the Empire. The Shadowlands are seriously revved up. Screwed up a contact with the Naga.
The Kuni daimyo is Tainted, but that's less of a shock in the new timeline, apparently. He's also traveling with the Entirely Trustworthy Phoenix Master of Earth in the Shadowlands, so...
Have not been shown having meaningful political dealings with any of the other Great Clans that went terribly well.
Providing some legitimacy to the Mantis- while those worthies raid the Crane for jade on their behalf- and also, of course, take some pickings for themselves.
Not so much a wild card as a ticking time bomb.

The Crane (boooo! Kyuden Doji delenda est!)- Currently riding high in the Imperial Court, but not aware of how little that might come to mean in a hurry.
Essentially allied with the Unicorn
About to have a civil war (FFG's words, not mine)
Essentially at war with the Lion, and Yoshi can say whatever he likes, but I seriously doubt that's going away.
Basically good relations with the Phoenix (although if they ever find out the Phoenix caused- or think they caused- the tsunami, that could go up in smoke)
Basically sour relations with the Crab.
Suffering raids at the hands of the Mantis on behalf of the Crab.
Still punked by the tsunami, no matter what that jagaloon Yoshi tries to say.

The Dragon - Doing their cryptic jerkwad routine, albeit with some direction this time.
Serious Pure Land Sect presence in their lands which one Prince has just wandered into.
A population-bolstering alliance with the Unicorn, apparently (although there's not much textual support for it) on decent enough terms with the Phoenix.
Currently have the main Clan armed force in the Capital, and are playing nice with Kakita Yoshi- just as they played nice with Shoju.
Wait and See.

The Lion - Absolute warmongering slimebuckets as far as literally everyone else is concerned.
Just offered an alliance of sorts to the Scorpion.
At war with the Crane, and messily so. At war with the Unicorn, and messily so.
Marriage alliance to the Phoenix (which the Phoenix saw as a way to stave off Lion aggression) is presumably off, since Toturi, the Lion contribution to that match, is a disgraced ronin.
Leadership of the clan is incredibly unstable- Arasou is dead, Toturi is a ronin, Tsuko is presumed dead, meaning they're currently operating without a de jure or de facto Champion. Just had their highest-ranking courtier ejected from the Imperial Court, not that he was exactly in a position to do anything but listen to Yoshi blather.
Large armies placed in positions where they have to raid their neighbors, now shorn of meaningful command oversight in many respects.

The Phoenix - "Not the face!"
Master of Void M.I.A.. Master of Earth wandering around the Shadowlands with a Tainted Kuni.
Elemental imbalance which weakens them more than anyone else spreading. Council not even letting their own Clan known the full extent of the problem.
Marriage truce with the Lion apparently off.
Relations with the Unicorn strained, at best.
Basically cordial with the Crane, unless the word gets out. Hm.
No meaningful interactions with the Scorpion spring to mind.
Word of god basically cordial with the Dragon. Little direct evidence of this.
Currently not much good to anyone, least of all themselves

The Scorpion - "All according to... uh... plan?"
Kachiko/Shoju ideological split already in place, probably not helped by current circumstances.
Clan in disgrace for their "coup"
Kachiko's with Hotaru, her cover blown.
Shoju just had a charming meeting the unstable warmongers du jour.
The Yogo just got overrun by Shaowlands nasties, their daimyo and presumably a lot of their other heavy hitter shugenja killed, with their bodies accessible to the forces of the Shadowlands.
The Nothing corruption is also very much in evidence in places.
Embrace the suck.

The Unicorn - Headquarters where their hindquarters should be.
Politically played by the Ikoma, who.... haven't seemed to be terribly smooth operators thus far.
Basically at war with the Lion, and basically allied with the Crane.
Population-bolstering alliance with the Dragon.
Sour relations with the Phoenix over meishodo, stopped short of open hostility for... honestly, it seemed to be, "whoops, we're not ready for that plot yet."
Iuchi Shahai implicated in disappearance of Prince Daisetsu.
Firmed up some relationships with their kin and allies outside of the Empire.
Surely this will end well!

The Imperial Families - Failing upward since the Kami fell on Seppun Hill!
Seem to be governed by inertia.
Riven by various forms of slimebaggery.
Currently, neither prince is anywhere safe, the Miya daimyo is a traitor, and the Seppun are basically neck-deep in perceived failure. The Otomo have been distinguished mostly for corruption, incompetence, or both.
They Are Not Helping

The Minor Clans - Mostly keeping their heads down. Mostly.
The Fox have buddied with the Crane somewhat.
The Mantis are raiding the Crane on behalf of the Crab, and also doing various scuzzy things on their own recognizance. The Mantis might also have had something to do with the tsunami that hit the Crane, although the main source for that claim is pretty unreliable.
The Centipede are apparently about to plunge into the elemental imbalance mess.
These guys tend to operate under the radar, which means their actions will feel like sucker punches when they go down.