I'm trying to determine whether a focus result should be kept or re-rolled in circumstances where you have one force and a target lock. Say I roll hit, hit, focus, blank. Do I reroll the focus? As hits switch to blanks in the initial roll, does the math change? I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the math right now.

Hey mess with this! Its super useful.

http://xwing.gateofstorms.net/2/modify_attack/

1 hour ago, Boom Owl said:

Hey mess with this! Its super useful.

http://xwing.gateofstorms.net/2/modify_attack/

A good tool to maximize results but doesn't say how to manage the Force tokens.

2 minutes ago, S4ul0 said:

A good tool to maximize results but doesn't say how to manage the Force tokens.

It seems to do the reroll with the most expected damage. And it looks like it rerolls everything that’s not a hit unless you only have one focus and one blank; then it just rerolls the blank.

54 minutes ago, S4ul0 said:

A good tool to maximize results but doesn't say how to manage the Force tokens.

Are you just trying to maximize damage output, or are you taking into account board state? Can you afford to spend the lock/force, or is it better to save it?

1 hour ago, Clutterbuck said:

I'm trying to determine whether a focus result should be kept or re-rolled in circumstances where you have one force and a target lock. Say I roll hit, hit, focus, blank. Do I reroll the focus? As hits switch to blanks in the initial roll, does the math change? I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the math right now.

It all depends on game state and if you are willing to spend that force aka Choose Violence.

If you are willing to spend that force then just rolling the blank is better. Percentage of getting two hits whether you roll just the blank or both dice is the same, but there is the chance of double blanking.

Good ole, Xwing probability calculator. Here are some results:

Spending the force:

Rerolling just the blank, gives you 50% chance for two hits.

Rerolling both gives you...50% chance for two hits, but you have a 6% for double blanks, and 25% chance to save your force and get two natty hits.

Not Spending Force:

Rerolling both gives you 25 % for two hits.

From your 4 dice initial attack. Choosing to spend the force and lock gives you about 56% chance to end with 4 hits, and by saving the force and only spending the lock, drops that by about 25%. So you need to choose if you are gonna spend that force, and if you roll hit hit eyeball blank, force can only change 1 eyeball anyways, so go ahead and spend it and reroll that blank.

Force is actually easy decision, because it only changes a single die results. Focus tokens get a little trickier and it benefits knowing how and when to spend them.

For instance, with a lock and focus token, you roll blank blank blank eyeball. Do you spend the focus and reroll 3 dice? Or reroll them all? Focus can change multiple dice.

Spending the focus on the single eyeball result, and rerolling the 3 blanks gives you 2.5 expected hits. (50% to end with at least 3 hits)

Rerolling all 4 dice and using focus afterwards gives you a total of 3 expected hits. (74% to end with at least 3 hits)

Keeping the eyeball, and rerolling 3 blanks, then spending the focus gives you 3.25 expected. (84% to end with at least 3 hits)

Maths is good to know, but random is random. You can't know if you're about to roll average or not.

Like others have said, it's game state relative. On marginal probabilities like this, you sometimes have to decide based on a worst case scenario. Safe rather than sorry is often the default for aces. I will reroll the eye in most iffy early/mid game situations, unless I'm already trying to catch up, and force it if I'm pushing for something near the end.

Question is, do you feel lucky?

Who else are you expecting to be attacked by? And could your shot be a killer shot with the extra hits generated?

Two or more potential attackers:

You probably want to keep the focus and force tokens. Reroll both dice, use no tokens. Unless it could be a decisive killer blow, in which case reroll the blank and use the most efficient token afterwards.

No potential attackers:

Reroll the blank. Use the focus.

One potential attacker:

A mix of the two ship dilemma. How many greens will you roll when defending? Should you save the focus therefore? One green only needs a force token. If you need the focus for the evade, you're gambling by rerolling both reds (focus and blank). You'll get a better expected result, on average, but with the small potential for a double blank, not achievable by only rerolling one blank (which by itself has a higher probability of giving a redundant focus result).

So. Gamestate and the ship you're using will both be highly influencing factors. So the maths says "no solution, play on."

On 12/15/2020 at 5:00 AM, Clutterbuck said:

I'm trying to determine whether a focus result should be kept or re-rolled in circumstances where you have one force and a target lock. Say I roll hit, hit, focus, blank. Do I reroll the focus? As hits switch to blanks in the initial roll, does the math change? I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the math right now.

A big thing for me with spending force is -

1. Am I going to be shot at?

2. Am I at full force?

3. How likely is the opponent likely to evade, ie how many greens they rolling.
4. What is my likely position going to be next turn, ie blocked potential etc.

5. Can I initiative kill my target?

plus many more.

To me there are a lot of questions that go into force management than just can I hit my target harder.

Almost always reroll both dice. Consider rerolling just one (Choice A) or both (Choice B)

A: The chance of rolling a hit on 1 die is 50%. This means that your chance to get two hits with a force spend is 50%. Force spend is guaranteed (unless you choose 0 hits).

B: The chance of getting two hits with 2 dice and a force is 50%. This is the same as above. However, you have a 56% chance to retain your force overall, and only a 7% chance to blank out entirely.

Caveat: If you have 1 force max and are taking no shots in return or if the 7% chance to blank out is too high (aka 1 damage = half points and the lead), then it makes sense to not spend for both.