Sleeves, Clumping and Percentages

By darthweasel2, in Marvel Champions: The Card Game

Curious what you have found as far as sleeves and shuffle ability. I will use as an example a popular you tube guy, Dale the Casual Gamer (fun guy to watch and this is in no way a criticism of him, Team Covenant, or anyone else who shuffles this way: It is so prevalent it was used as a visual joke in the movie "Tournament", he is just someone I have seen shuffle this way a lot that I suspect a lot of people will be familiar with. I am willing to bet most people reading this shuffle the same way and it is a completely legitimate way to shuffle for this game. Try it in a deal your own poker game and we may have a different answer....) and his manner of shuffling where he holds them horizontal in one hand, pulls a packet loose and mixes them by sliding a few at a time into the main deck in a rapid up and down motion, hitch the main packet to open a new space, rinse and repeat. I only use Dale in case someone is not sure the manner I a talking about and want to look it up.

Anyone who has played in virtually any card game tournament has seen this method dozens, hundreds, maybe thousands of times. Sleeved cards are very difficult to bridge and/or shuffle in the traditional manner. And that is even more true in a casual game like this one where people might use anything from the penny sleeves on to the sleeves specifically designed for the game on up to Dragon Sleeves. Penny Sleeves in particular tend to stick together and get clumps of 4, 5, maybe more cards that move together.

Now, anyone who has done even a cursory study of card magic knows this is a well-loved version to use in shuffling. For the person who knows what they are doing (spoiler alert if you don't want to know anything about how some card effects are accomplished, stop reading this paragraph), this style of shuffle is great because it looks legit and people don't question it but it is incredibly easy to manipulate specific cards to specific location. It is also fantastic, and this is the far more relevant point, for moving packets of cards you need to be together to stay together. Easy way to produce those 4 aces everyone thought were shuffled in to the top to produce. Oh, the magic! That of course is intentional to produce an effect. It will never mix cards as well as a riffle shuffle. Nor will it mix them as well as the time consuming but common in card game circles dealing cards individually to 4,5,6,7 different piles.

I have heard a lot of people talking about getting slapped with Double Advances. I have had it happen myself more than is statistically probable. Fortunately I keep threat so low that is has only cost me a couple times but it is still an issue. I actually started tracking across a couple games, this one and Lord of the Rings LCG to see how much clumping I was getting. I also anecdotally watched when playing someone else's version of Legendary. He uses Penny Sleeves, I use Ultra Pro for LotR and Dragon Shields for Champions. And what I have found is that all of them do not allow riffle shuffle or the hand shuffle method above to give true random distribution in my experience. The same clumps of cards stick together.

One fun way to see how the cards are mixing is to flip them face up as you shuffle for a while. When you see the same 2,3,4,5 cards side by each time and again you visually see this phenomenon.

Now, with Champions the stakes are low. It is a...what is the term tournament players so elegantly criticize Warhammer as...a beer and pretzels game so to speak. By the designers own admission, it is intended for the average player to pick up the unadjusted out of the box hero deck and beat most scenarios most of the time. I can make a pretty strong argument this issue is not really relevant, it is more observation. When you shuffle using this method you are going to find much more frequent instances of multiple expert cards hitting you back to back, more examples of those two "didn't need to see that" villain specific cards in close proximity. You are not getting anywhere near a true random shuffle.

That means you are going to see certain combinations of cards far more often than is reasonable and others far less than make sense. Thor is going to see Hammer Throws back to back and Iron Man will find his armor either all at first or all on the bottom instead of mixed throughout the deck.

Does it matter? That of course is up to individual taste. I actually resleeved all my Champions cards in Dragon Sleeve Matte for better shuffling (lets me riffle shuffle but even there I don't get true distribution as there still tend to be 2-3 card clumps that stick together). I tend to shuffle 15-20 times every time I shuffle trying to get a better randomness knowing the sub-standard shuffleability of sleeved cards when playing solo. When playing in a group I don't bother as it is not real important to that setting which is far more about brothers, nephews, and friends killing pizza, soda, chips and playing a game together for a few hours. But I want to...because I am me. Again, the stakes in this game are low enough that I don't bother.

So what about you? Do you take any extra steps to get a more random distribution or do you just jiggle them together a few times and call it good? Do you care?

When shuffling for tournaments for other card games, I do a pile shuffle before getting started, but just "normal" shuffling otherwise (and let my opponent cut if they want). I tend not to get that serious with Champions, though.

I do a combination rifle/mash five times at the beginning of the game, and twice whenever I've looked at the deck or need to reshuffle the discard. I've had a few back-to-back Expert situations, but other than that I'm happy with it.

I’m very bad at shuffling, so I normally deal into 4 piles and then shuffle to try and split up ‘sets’ of cards as much as possible...

I don't use card sleeves, so I just do the riffle shuffle. Though I can't bridge, so I have to shuffle them upside down occasionally so as to keep the cards straight. I always end shuffling normally and cutting the deck. That's how I was taught. 🤷🏻

Although my friend has a machine that shuffles cards for you, in case you can't shuffle, plus it doesn't hurt the cards and is honestly a lot faster if you can get the rhythm to it. Does anyone know how sleeved cards would effect the results of that kind of a contraption? Or would it be completely fine?

My brother does the first shuffle mentioned that Dale does, but he always does the riffle shuffle first.

I sleeve everything and was never very good at riffle shuffling, anyway, so I usually cut the deck in half and push one half into the other. I'll also pull a small section of cards from the bottom, push them into the top, then take another small section, push them into the top, and so on. I'll also pull half of the cards from the middle section, bring the sets of cards at the end together, and push the middle section in. Sometimes I'll do the opposite. Seems to work pretty well for me.

8 hours ago, darthweasel2 said:

Sleeved cards are very difficult to bridge and/or shuffle in the traditional manner.

You lost me here. It may take some practice but riffle-shuffling cards in a properly-sized sleeve is barely any different from shuffling the same way without. Dirty or brand-new sleeves might cause a bit more clumping than non-sleeved cards but clean, broken-in sleeves are perfectly fine for randomization - source: me using card sleeves with competitive card games for over 20 years.

Mash shuffle all the way. To get a proper shuffle you need to make sure the cards overlap correctly, otherwise you can end up with cards at the top or bottom of the deck that have not moved.

This post of reddit explains how to do it properly (note there are three images and you have to click through them):

Do it this way 5-6 times and you're done. If on average each pair of cards gets 1 other card mashed in between, after 5 mash shuffles cards will be separated by 31 other cards on average, and after 6 mash shuffles it will be 63.

In a 40-card deck that is plenty.

I mash shuffle a few times with an overhand shuffle or two thrown in to make sure the top and bottom of the deck are getting shuffled during the mash. I've not noticed a problem with clumping but I've not been actively looking for it.

I alternate which type of shuffle I do (sometimes piles as well)

On 12/8/2020 at 4:52 PM, BCumming said:

You lost me here. It may take some practice but riffle-shuffling cards in a properly-sized sleeve is barely any different from shuffling the same way without. Dirty or brand-new sleeves might cause a bit more clumping than non-sleeved cards but clean, broken-in sleeves are perfectly fine for randomization - source: me using card sleeves with competitive card games for over 20 years.

There is a pretty significant difference. Clump multiple cards repeatedly in a bridge game and you will hear some uncomplimentary words. Do it at a money game and there will be cheating accusations (yep, I have seen that. One of them hilariously/sadly was at a charity tournament that really went sideways.)

I have found that all sorts of sleeves, from Star Wars art sleeves to Ultra Pro to Dragon Sleeve Matte clump in 2-3 card allotments. And They are okay for casual game randomization but not for true randomization if this were a serious game...source, me shuffling for bridge games, as a professional dealer at poker tournaments, playing tournament card games and doing some sleight of hand for 42 years. I am a pretty accomplished shuffler in a variety of forms from the overhand to the riffle to the faro to the table shuffle (far and away my least favorite. I know the logic of it).

So the part you might not have picked up on I guess I should have been a bit more explicit. Lets say I am running a 40 card deck. There is a key side scheme with 4 threat I need to clear. My partner has an Avengers Mansion they will give me if I can clear the scheme and will use themself if not. I have a Power of Justice in hand. 17 cards are in the discard, 5 in my hand so I know 22 cards, don't know 18. I pack 3 For Justice's. In a truly randomized deck there is a 17% (1 in 6 more accurately) chance I am going to pull one if he gives it to me. However, the way cards tend to be in 2-3 card packets as getting a true one card/one card perfect shuffle (technical term is a farrow or weave if it matters) , knowing that cuts don't alter the order of cards and when cards are in packets they are closer to a cut, then the chance might actually be more like 1 in 3. If I see one of the cards that was close to it last time through the deck I am more likely to call for that mansion.

Naturally, most people are not (and definitely should not unless it is intrinsic to their card playing) playing Champions at those levels of tracking so for the most part it doesn't matter but for those who know and consider the percentages, it matters. More to the point and more broadly, having seen the ways several people are shuffling and if they play a couple games back to back, it might help them realize why all of Iron Mans' suit is in the top third of the deck one game and then the next game they start seeing it well into the second half or Black Panthers suit being buried yet again.

That is where it can actually help is if people are aware that the shuffling method you see from people like Team Covenant (was watching their kang 2 broadcast yesterday and was internally laughing when the Advances kept showing up back to back when they were flipping through the encounter deck. Live action example!!!) doesn't give true random. At the same time, it doesn't matter because the game is ton of fun and I did not notice them having any less fun nor did I have less fun watching them.

I guess if somehow you know what's clumping together then you can take advantage of that. How would you determine what's clumping together to leverage that knowledge? How would you even prove that sleeved cards clump more than unsleeved?

Because I usually play a lot of games in a row (typically 5), I try to make sure I've given the decks a good shuffle. Usually overhand shuffle followed by a pile shuffle (not really a proper shuffle, I know), then some more overhand. Definitely helps avoid clumping.

21 hours ago, BCumming said:

I guess if somehow you know what's clumping together then you can take advantage of that. How would you determine what's clumping together to leverage that knowledge? How would you even prove that sleeved cards clump more than unsleeved?

I actually prior to a game often spin through and make sure that say...3 standard cards are not clumped, I don't really pay a lot of attention to the titles. Kind of similar to in LoTR where I just make sure maybe the skulls are not all together, things like that. Makes it much more exciting (for me, and I cannot emphasize that enough...the variety of ways people enjoy this game is one of my favorite parts) when that unexpected back to back nasty card hits as a surprise instead of an expected.

On the other side, when I play say...Black Panther it is almost inevitable regardless of distribution that I will have 2, 3, 4 Wakanda Forevers in close proximity because I think my deck so much...40 card deck, I routinely have 10-14 cards on the table and with Golden City and an Avengers Mansion I am seeing 7 of maybe 26 cards...and being able to recycle Wakanda Forever with Ancestral, I am very likely to have several in deck. It does lead to having to shuffle extra to ensure I space them as much as possible.

Conversely, with Ms Marvel I try to NOT shuffle. I use Amir to stack my deck so I know what is coming. Learned that little maneuver years ago playing a deceased game called Raw Deal that reversals were a huge key and if you stacked your deck right you could set up unstoppable combos. I heard of one guy who knew his deck so well he could tell you where every card in his deck was by mid-game...on a completely unrelated note, he was one of the best players in the world.

If you get a chance, go watch the second Team Covenant attempt on Kang. Watch the I believe it was second attempt in their second recording session when clumping of Advance occurs and they make an ill-fated decision. Spoiler Alert 🙂 (but maybe not in the way you expect)

At the same time, Marvel Champions being a co-op game, it likely only matters for the people who are playing Heroic and above for the challenge. For a legit challenge you need legit distribution. And full disclosure...every so often I throw out a topic almost out of nostalgia. Forums for Raw Deal were red hot and we would talk about deck builds, how to use specific cards (or the inevitable "that card is a coaster" complaints. These forums are pretty quiet. I miss the deep dive discussions. I tried a few different games prior to the lockdown looking for that. Keyfore, Str Wars Destiny, X Wing...there just aren't active forums any more.

Then again, I am old and worn out so maybe they are better off gone. It is a nice break from some of my more serious work though

I agree that there are all kinds of advantages to knowing what's in your deck and even better if you have a good idea where. Layering cards returned to the deck with The Rock or Booker T could pay off big if you did it correctly. As for me, I often had my recurred Strike reversals overturned by Grapples and vice versa. ;)

I haven't seen this Team Covenant stream so I can only guess that two Advances came up early in the game and then again later. If that's the case then how do you prove that A) clumping is a common occurrence across all sleeve-users; and B) that their double Advance wasn't just very good shuffling (sufficient randomization leading to an unexpected result) or poor shuffling (insufficient randomization)? I'll admit, I first thought your definition of clumping was consistently seeing the same cards next to each other often throughout many shuffles and uses, which in my experience is usually mismatched sleeves or a bit of gunk causing stickiness. If you're talking about occasionally having some cards not randomize as well as expected despite proper shuffling, that makes a bit more sense. However I don't see any empirical evidence for the claim that sleeved cards don't randomize as well as unsleeved. The point about shuffling the deck face-up to see if randomization is happening as well as expected is worth examining so I'll try that next time I'm sitting down for some solo.

To your final point about deep dive discussions, I don't know how much you're going to get with a cooperative game instead of a competitive one. This is my first co-op LCG and second LCG overall so I can only guess that there's less reason to analyze cases for use of Emergency and Warning when compared to competitive metas where you can collectively speculate about how applicable adding a niche Reversal to your deck is. Is Clutch/Apply out of favor or will I need my Clean Breaks for this tournament?

On 12/11/2020 at 5:10 PM, BCumming said:

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To your final point about deep dive discussions, I don't know how much you're going to get with a cooperative game instead of a competitive one. This is my first co-op LCG and second LCG overall so I can only guess that there's less reason to analyze cases for use of Emergency and Warning when compared to competitive metas where you can collectively speculate about how applicable adding a niche Reversal to your deck is. Is Clutch/Apply out of favor or will I need my Clean Breaks for this tournament?

Rock was the best. Brahma Bull could lock everything down almost at will. I think my most-played decks were Rock/Peoples Champ, Hurricane, Buh Buh Ray and Batista. But I kept decks for every hero

not long after the clutch apply train started, I took a Brothers of Destruction deck to a tournament, got out an action card, don't remember the title, but after taking damage you popped it to end their turn. It was not a popular card. Three consecutive turns he played his clutch, I popped it, he had the 2 fortitude from Dirty Low Blow and 3 from that and spent the rest of the game whining about how broken my card was. I think his deck was mono submission, it did not go well for him...but he did get all his clutches out! And it started my laughter every times someone declares a card "broken".

Ah, another fond BoD memory...running into a Right To Censor deck that censored Fortitude Surge and plunging them to death with Throw into corner turnbuckles. Lol oh I miss that game.

Hilariously, my all time favorite game of it...I lost. Playing Hurricane had an incredible first turn that saw me get the shining wizard kick, Hurrislam, Eye of the Hurricane off leaving him with I think 1 card in deck. He immediately Turn the Tide, Olympic Slam, Ankle Lock, game. Ah, the good old days. I miss that game pre-Revolution suck-fest.

Side note I just two weeks ago sold all my Raw Deal cards. I had 96 assembled decks...and have given 20+ away to my nephew a few years ago. Someone had a problem... I note the Comic Images website is gone now...I still had articles on there including my prize winning one. Ah, the nostalgia...and the aging process. You young punks get off my lawn!!!