After a bit of googling, I have not found an answer, so thought I'd post here (just got the game last weekend).
The basics of my question: The rules are not as clear as I'd like: Can the Federalist win if threat hits 25 by failing to meet demand in the 3rd demand round?
My readings and sources of confusion -
1) Rules, Section 69 (Winning and Losing), intro paragraph: If the game ends during the 3rd Demand Round, the Federalist loses.
2) Rules, Section 69.3: If the game ends because threat reaches 25, all players .... except the Federalist loses the game (who then needs to have at least 25 capital to win).
3) Rules, Section 18 (Demand Round): ... the game ends immediately after the 3rd Demand Round.
4) Rules, Section 63 (Threat): If the threat token is moved to space “25” of the threat track, the game ends immediately.
5) Rules, Section 63.1: ... reads the same as Section 69.3.
These rules are mostly consistent - Rule 69 applies for the 3rd Demand round, Rule 69.3 applies only to all points in the game prior to the 3rd Demand round.
If threat reaches 25 during the 3rd Demand Round (when Demand is not met, for example), the Federalist still loses, since that's during the 3rd demand round. This also implies it's possible for all players to lose even if one is the Federalist.
But then there's this other rule:
Rule 28.2 (Federalist) The Federalist should remember that he will not get a chance to score his third investment unless threat reaches 25 as a result of the city failing to meet demand.
The only way to get to the 3rd investment is.. by starting the 3rd Demand round, during which, the Federalist cannot win if they haven't already.
... why would the Federalist even care? They've already lost. The only game impact of the Federalist score on that final investment is to potentially cause their rival to lose.