[Blog] X-Wing Analytica: the Definition of an Ace

By GreenDragoon, in X-Wing

Posted at
On 7/30/2019 at 8:25 AM, Dragon_King said:

I told you before

nobody dares to click that link with such a titel.... this sounds like the latest release of adult movies 😅

Or one more over the top Bond parody starring Vin Diesel...

not sure if people want to click that either ;)

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@RStan and @Mistborn_Jedi are running this now at GenCon. Not sure 100% on their list make-up.

Edited by gennataos
Posted at

@GreenDragoon - Do you feel knowing the probabilities impacts your decisions in a negative manner? Like, you know you have high probability to kill something, it doesn't happen and the game goes south for you. Next game, you're faced with that same situation, and you know math is on your side, but you hedge your bets and bail out?

Posted at
1 minute ago, gennataos said:

@GreenDragoon - Do you feel knowing the probabilities impacts your decisions in a negative manner? Like, you know you have high probability to kill something, it doesn't happen and the game goes south for you. Next game, you're faced with that same situation, and you know math is on your side, but you hedge your bets and bail out?

Interesting question. In a way, yes. But I have to say that I feel the probabilities out (in part based on my reports of course), I don't calculate anything during a game.
Yes because I started to dismiss probabilities below 80% when taking shots, and I started to assume the worst when defending. Both are wrong.

In this game specifically I made enough mistakes that are independent of dice. And maybe I should have emphasized more how lucky I was in the beginning! Bastian not losing a single shield was extremely unlikely, in the range of 2% chance! Early swings are important. Now, in this case he also had the luck on his defense dice and I only did a single shield damage (around 8%). Both occurring at the same time is fair - and extremely unlikely!

There are different factors that are important. A tournament game at a large event would have ended before I lost it. A bit more luck might have bailed me out. That's why I try to focus on the decisions and not the end result. The list feels great despite lack of A-wings and losses, and it looks like it is relatively forgiving of mistakes. The other games that went to vassal-time at 15 rounds were close enough that I might have won after 75min, as did this one, despite all my mistakes! And I am experimenting a lot with my approaches so I don't have to once the games really count, like jousting a TIE swarm.

Posted at
48 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:

Interesting question. In a way, yes. But I have to say that I feel the probabilities out (in part based on my reports of course), I don't calculate anything during a game.
Yes because I started to dismiss probabilities below 80% when taking shots, and I started to assume the worst when defending. Both are wrong.

In this game specifically I made enough mistakes that are independent of dice. And maybe I should have emphasized more how lucky I was in the beginning! Bastian not losing a single shield was extremely unlikely, in the range of 2% chance! Early swings are important. Now, in this case he also had the luck on his defense dice and I only did a single shield damage (around 8%). Both occurring at the same time is fair - and extremely unlikely!

There are different factors that are important. A tournament game at a large event would have ended before I lost it. A bit more luck might have bailed me out. That's why I try to focus on the decisions and not the end result. The list feels great despite lack of A-wings and losses, and it looks like it is relatively forgiving of mistakes. The other games that went to vassal-time at 15 rounds were close enough that I might have won after 75min, as did this one, despite all my mistakes! And I am experimenting a lot with my approaches so I don't have to once the games really count, like jousting a TIE swarm.

Thanks! I ask because, during GenCon, I would grow increasingly frustrated if the 13% chance to roll blank/focus with Heroic/Optics A-Wings kept happening in a game. And it happens a shocking amount of times, it feels . It didn't change how I approached things, but I would find myself irritated, which is never a good state of mind.

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I've had a really tough time lately not getting salty as I've been specifically checking probabilities. I had a QD in one game get killed on a ~2% chance or something like that by two concussion missile TAPs with heightened perception before she ever shot her normal engagement attack. Bigger is the issue of probabilities like 53%, 46%, etc because they make you believe what is more likely and less likely but don't illustrate the decision making impact. Depends on the decision and situation. If Soontir had a 40% chance of getting popped, maybe I don't commit him, where I don't mind committing my V-19 into that same chance to die as a blocker. So its sort of linking the probability with the corresponding impact on the game and my win condition if it doesn't go my way.

Posted at
8 minutes ago, dsul413 said:

Bigger is the issue of probabilities like 53%, 46%, etc because they make you believe what is more likely and less likely but don't illustrate the decision making impact. Depends on the decision and situation.

Yes, so much this! My mistake is when I don't take the impact into consideration. I know I did more for the Awings. The same applies for maneuver choices: if a bump or obstacle overlap would lose you the game with Soontir, don't risk it. If it's Jess... eh, she'll be fine anyway.

In a way, aces are easier for me in that regard because the impact of a certain choice is clearer to me. I can't instinctively tell you how important 1 out of 7 HP is for a T70. But it's much, much clearer to me for my other usual ships (A-wings, Interceptors, Strikers, v1, x1, even Delta7 Jedi).

Posted at
3 hours ago, dsul413 said:

I've had a really tough time lately not getting salty as I've been specifically checking probabilities. I had a QD in one game get killed on a ~2% chance or something like that by two concussion missile TAPs with heightened perception before she ever shot her normal engagement attack. Bigger is the issue of probabilities like 53%, 46%, etc because they make you believe what is more likely and less likely but don't illustrate the decision making impact. Depends on the decision and situation. If Soontir had a 40% chance of getting popped, maybe I don't commit him, where I don't mind committing my V-19 into that same chance to die as a blocker. So its sort of linking the probability with the corresponding impact on the game and my win condition if it doesn't go my way.

Xwing math is super easy...

First, do all the correct math, then add an additional 50% probability for any scenario that makes you lose.

.....

6200ca0eec3f0a9745c66b4379a5098f.jpg

Posted at
12 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

And finally I wrote another report. It feels like I start to get the hang of it, despite the loss.

https://greendragoon.home.blog/2019/08/14/battle-report-thebigdeal-vs-his-predecessor/

I just wanted to say that I found your thread about the list, along with the blog posts utterly inspiring (along with @RStan 's musings too), so much so that I decided to give the list a go at our club night last week. I lost the first game against a Fenn, Teroch, Kavil list - in which I got diced hard, but there was only a half health Fenn left at the end - and a significant win versus a Rebel BBYYA list.

There was a casual tournament up the road in Aldershot (UK) on the Saturday so brought the list to see how it would fare. There were 16 players, but the standard was exceptionally high - I ended up playing 4 players who all had Worlds invites and I went 3-1 on the day. I played against:

RND 1 - Simon Tournay (186th Squadron) - Imperials - Vader with Afterburners and Passive Sensors, Vynder with Diamond Boron Missiles, Advanced Proton Torpedoes, Title and Jendon carrying Palpatine. Won 200-124.

RND 2 - Alex Birt (186th Squadron) - Republic - Obi Wan with 7B and R2, Mace with Sense, 7B and R2 along with two Gold Squadron Torrents. Won 160-152.

RND 3 - Julian Hood (186th / Blue Squadron) - Republic - Anakin with 7B and R2, Obi Wan with Sense and CLT along with two Gold Squadron Torrents. Won 200-76.

RND 4 - Dom Flannegan (Firestorm Squadron) - Imperials - Vader with FCS and Afterburners, Fel with Predator, Scarif Base Pilot with Palp and a Shield Upgrade - Lost 200-56 (this was streamed here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLQ8PnpBEEo&t=677s ) This was my first time on stream and felt pretty nervous and I made a few mistakes that really cost me.

Overall it was a really fun list to play with and I'll be playing with it a whole lot more in the coming months I think.

67819412_2312544895531355_7237593417922904064_n.jpg

Posted at
2 minutes ago, Elbastido said:

I ended   up playing 4 players who all  had Worlds invites and I went 3-1 on the da  y

Wow, congratulations, it looks like those were pretty tough matchups!

If you don't mind to sketch it quickly: what were your thoughts and initial targets in those lists? How did you deal with all those slippery aces?

Posted at
38 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:

Wow, congratulations, it looks like those were pretty tough matchups!

If you don't mind to sketch it quickly: what were your thoughts and initial targets in those lists? How did you deal with all those slippery aces?

Yeah, none of the games were easy. I was particularly wary from reading your thoughts on how tough it is to face High Initiative, double reposition aces!

RND1 - Initially I wanted Vynder off the table first. Diamond Boron missiles are not something I wanted shot at me multiple times. However, Simon moved him in a way I wasn't expecting so I missed him in the initial engagement. I guess I got a little too enthusiastic and over shot where the fight was going to be. This meant I ended up chasing down Vader into a corner and blocked him. This allowed Jess, Snap and Finn to kill him in a round. I then got the shuttle and finally Vynder, with Vynder accounting for Snap and Jess.

RND2 - I hate Republic lists, my RND3 opponent Julian is a good friend of mine and we had traveled up together and I've had plenty of practice against his list (never beaten it though...). Generally in this matchup the Torrents set up to joust, so getting rid of them was my first priority whilst hopefully keeping the Jedi quiet until later. This worked really well and I deleted both torrents while still keeping my four ships on the table.

The Jedi then went after Finn who had to disengage due to asteroids. While Finn died to their concentrated fire over two turns, it allowed the T-70s to kill Mace. I then tried to block Obi Wan as best I could while keeping up pressure. Sometimes this worked (I managed to block a 5K and a number of 1 turns) and I finally managed to bring him down, despite him regenning two shields.

RND3 - I'd never beaten Julian's Republic list before Saturday ( I don't feel too bad about this, he's won a number of Hyperspace trials in the UK, along with making cuts everywhere. He's part of the UK XTC team and is at German Nationals this week), so it wasn't a game I particularly wanted, but I tried to do the same as the game against Alex. Again, I killed both Torrents in the joust for no loss which got me ahead.

After that I got some blocks on Anakin which were key in bringing him down, then Obi Wan.

RND 4 - I really messed up my target priority on this. On the initial joust I should have gone for Vader, but went for Fel as I was convinced that Vader would run and Fel would engage. But it was the opposite and I went behing in the damage race. After that my dice went a little cold, but I did get the Reaper, even if it hung around a turn longer than it should have. I did still land a couple of blocks on Vader, but couldn't push any damage through before I died.

Edited by Elbastido
Posted at

So, reading your post there, what occurs to me is that each is more or less a step along a path - at least in the X-Wing world. You sort of start out with a trick - a neat combo or effect like Rebel Leia crew for example - and once it's identified and proven to more effective than a single instance "Gotcha!", it can develop into a tactic. The trick becomes something around which you build a list, a process or method which you can consistently pursue or utilize on your way to victory; it's no longer a trick, but rather a tool to be used at the right moment. And then eventually, or even suddenly , it becomes so codified and common that is is in fact a strategy - a commonly known and practiced effect that moves one inevitably closer to victory. Leia is again a solid example, although any TIE Phantom qualifies as well in my mind. Cloaking is a neat trick, which has been demonstrated to be consistently useful, and around which lists and X-Wing "careers" have been built. Most Scum "tricks" never have the opportunity to evolve; they are true tricks that seen once lose their teeth. Whereas your Homiebro, or Leia's consistent free k-turn, is something that, even when we know the trick, is still consistently good and effective - it is virtually uncounterable. These tactical tricks become a strategy once the player starts building lists and environments that enhance their effect. How does that sound?

Posted at
3 hours ago, Kleeg005 said:

Most Scum "tricks" never have the opportunity to evolve; they are true tricks that seen once lose their teeth. Whereas your Homiebro, or Leia's consistent free k-turn, is something that, even when we know the trick, is still consistently good and effective - it is virtually uncounterable. These tactical tricks become a strategy once the player starts building lists and environments that enhance their effect. How does that sound?

Yes!

That's pretty much what I meant with the "That does not mean that the combination is bad as a tactic [...]. Some tricks are less-known tactics and well worth repeating."

e: was playing starcraft, so I forgot the more relevant part. Your point about scum not having an opportunity to evolve is such a nice observation!

Edited by GreenDragoon
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Nice post! I certainly appreciate the distinctions you make through the post. Strategy and tactics in modern military applications are also intertwined like what you wrote in your post. When you look at Clausewitz's definitions, you can see how the two words could diverge in meaning. "Tactics is the art of using troops in battle; strategy is the art of using battles to win the war." I personally see a great deal of overlap in modern conflict because things like collateral damage influence the strategic fight maybe moreso than the tactical win. An analogous X-Wing scenario would be how you engage in a tournament with MoV cuts; you may not press a clear advantage with a damaged ship for fear of losing MoV that will effect your chances to make cut.

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I think the "opening" stuff is interesting, something more players should consider, if as an academic pursuit for the game, if nothing else. I've used them before, but found I didn't put enough thought into them and could end up in a "crap, what do I do now that they put their forces there?" situation. More often, I have a loose setup/deployment strategy which allows for an equally loose approach.

Pinging @RStan , because I know he works on openings and it was him that introduced me to the notion of a "pivot obstacle", which I think can be key for planned openings.

Posted at
17 minutes ago, gennataos said:

Pinging @RStan , because I know he works on openings and it was him that introduced me to the notion of a "pivot obstacle", which I think can be key for planned openings.

Yes he made this

pn9d2Cd.png

And I have the 2-1-2 from Bartosz.

Of course the most comprehensive one I've ever seen is by Jonathan Scott on the Finger Four. 8 openings with several different transitions! I still haven't tried it with 5 rebel Awings in 2.0

http://www.backtodials.com/a-wing-ace-the-finger-four-formation-by-jonathan-scott/

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Personally I find practicing a few openings a critical part of prepping for a tourney.