[Blog] X-Wing Analytica: the Definition of an Ace

By GreenDragoon, in X-Wing

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We all know there are two hobbies in X-wing. One is playing, the other is talking about it. I have two more, and they are to look at the massive data troves, and to write battle reports. So far I've done that in individual threads, but I got annoyed by having to look them up myself.

So I present to you X-Wing Analytica , a new blog where I take a look at 1) the meta and 2) where I will write and store my battle reports from now on.
One out of interest for the data, and the other because I've found that battle reports help me rethink my games. I do that mainly for myself, to be frank. But the X-wing community shares so much, and maybe it is interesting or even useful for some of you. The third reason use is my own link collection. That, too, is something I like to have independent of platforms or devices. Finally, I will also write some other articles from time to time. One on fundamentals is already up. Others in the future will include random topics like my take on list tiers, the occasional take on BoomOwl's tactic central list, or other ramblings.

I hope you'll enjoy it!

Edited by GreenDragoon
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@GreenDragoon Where do I ask you about how Anakin+anotherjedi+2xV19s are doing?

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In here or per direct message.

I'll have a look. I know I've seen it not doing well, but that is likely the reason that you haven't seen it.

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8 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:

In here or per direct message.

I'll have a look. I know I've seen it not doing well, but that is likely the reason that you haven't seen it.

it won 2 HSTs but also seems to have drifted to the bottom tables a lot, which is why I'm asking.

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2 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

And an example of a rambling type post:

https://greendragoon.home.blog/2019/04/18/npe-the-logic-of-strategy-and-x-wing/

I liked this post and the observations about NPE and can immediately apply some of that logic to see where some people are coming from in the recent discussion about some of the more powerful lists.

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5 hours ago, Micanthropyre said:

@GreenDragoon Where do I ask you about how Anakin+anotherjedi+2xV19s are doing?

I have that squad just seven times, and only one of them made cut. However, that is because Jaren Foss dropped, otherwise it would be 2/7 and that's 28% and above the threshold.

The 7 lists went: 6-0, 5-1, 2-4, 1-5, 2-3, 3-3, and 2-4. They were 5x with ahsoka, 2x with luminara (the 2-3 and the 3-3). Which one is better (edit: for people other than Morgan or Fosses)? No clue.
That still has me doubting it. It looks at least like the dynamic range is very large - most people do bad with it, but some can do very well.

Pinging @arctic_rogue as you had asked about that list.

Edited by GreenDragoon
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I have played against that Jedi list 3 times each with a different player. Twice I crushed it and once I was beaten 200~120ish Anakin was left.

I believe that list needs a good player to be flown well, in the right hands it's very difficult to beat if Anakin moves after you, if the player is not as skilful or if you move last with something that can reposition well, you have a good chance to beat it.

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I just added another short article on how I write my battle reports.

https://greendragoon.home.blog/2019/04/20/battle-report-how-to/

Those who have been reading them over the last few months will be very familiar with it. But I thought I should explain it a bit, now that I will share them more widely.

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Great stuff!

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Even as someone who believes dice are too fickle to make traveling to events worthwhile, it's good to see what the wider world is up to

Keep up the good stuff!

And just to throw my two cents, the gap between competitively viable and not is NOTHING like the abyssal vacuum of 1st Ed xwing. I can guarantee vultures will ruin your day locally, it's just they pop like soap bubbles so over a long, mov driven tournament...

Edited by ficklegreendice
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Just saw that on the Gold Squadron Podcast Stream during the Atlanta System Open. A player with a TIE swarm of 6 TIEs. He had the wrong formation as he was moving with a 3×2 but had to turn by 90°. He did something with banks, and it arguably cost him the game due to a bad opening engagement. But how do you change formation?

https://greendragoon.home.blog/2019/05/25/fundamentals-swarms-and-how-to-change-formation/

Edited by GreenDragoon
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10 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

Just saw that on the Gold Squadron Podcast Stream during the Atlanta System Open. A player with a TIE swarm of 6 TIEs. He had the wrong formation as he was moving with a 3×2 but had to turn by 90°. He did something with banks, and it arguably cost him the game due to a bad opening engagement. But how do you change formation?

https://greendragoon.home.blog/2019/05/25/fundamentals-swarms-and-how-to-change-formation/

thanks! i love this kind of post

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1 hour ago, GreenDragoon said:

Road to Euros 2019

Some thoughts on the Extended Meta, points changes, and how I choose my list

https://greendragoon.home.blog/2019/05/27/road-to-euros-2019/

Interesting read as always. Lately I've been asking myself similar questions. It's possible that we'll see currently overpriced/underused card rise to the top like Leia did with the last changes, but we can't really predict that. Also there's been a lot of talk about RZ-2 price increases, so watch out for that.

I believe lists currently placed in the lower half of the top 10 will benefit the most from pts changes as they are strong but often have bad matchups against the top lists. Things like Kylo/2xUps or Inferno Squadron will probably stay the same. Imp aces will fare better with less Phantoms and Leias on the board. Sleeper hit might be double Infiltrator list, turns out Hate+Palpatine and double modded ProTorps are solid and I would like to see someone really good take up this list. Republic already does well and N-1 will only strengthen their position as one of the best blockers in the game (3 bank -> Evade -> Roll is nasty). Anakin/Padmé/2xHandmaiden might be one of the most annoying lists if it fits, although low on firepower.

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6 minutes ago, Pink_Viking said:

Interesting read as always. Lately I've been asking myself similar questions. It's possible that we'll see currently overpriced/underused card rise to the top like Leia did with the last changes, but we can't really predict that. Also there's been a lot of talk about RZ-2 price increases, so watch out for that.

I believe lists currently placed in the lower half of the top 10 will benefit the most from pts changes as they are strong but often have bad matchups against the top lists. Things like Kylo/2xUps or Inferno Squadron will probably stay the same. Imp aces will fare better with less Phantoms and Leias on the board. Sleeper hit might be double Infiltrator list, turns out Hate+Palpatine and double modded ProTorps are solid and I would like to see someone really good take up this list. Republic already does well and N-1 will only strengthen their position as one of the best blockers in the game (3 bank -> Evade -> Roll is nasty). Anakin/Padmé/2xHandmaiden might be one of the most annoying lists if it fits, although low on firepower.

Thanks. I was mostly surprised by how much point flexibility these lists have, and I doubt that FFG will nerf as drastically as they did last time. Some scum list changed by 20-30 points, as did the RedlineWhisperSoontir list. And yet, I can't see that happening here because the individual parts seem to be mostly fine. Does XBBU really suffer from a lack of crackshot or swarm tactics? Not really, in my opinion.

But you raise a very important point that I do not really mention: we don't know what gets cheaper and thus is not currently an option.

Also, the lists that are at the moment close to the top10 but won't get hit: That's another reason to stick to the Arc-77. Metawing has it on place 11 if filtering for wave 3 system opens. I doubt it will get hit.

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On 5/27/2019 at 4:50 PM, GreenDragoon said:

Thanks. I was mostly surprised by how much point flexibility these lists have, and I doubt that FFG will nerf as drastically as they did last time. Some scum list changed by 20-30 points, as did the RedlineWhisperSoontir list. And yet, I can't see that happening here because the individual parts seem to be mostly fine. Does XBBU really suffer from a lack of crackshot or swarm tactics? Not really, in my opinion.

Exactly, upping Leia a few points doesn't change the currently popular Beef list at all, I'd paste what I said in another thread:

Let's  suppose Leia goes up to 6. Wedge, Braylen, Cassian  all get +3 pts. You could then fit:

Wedge/Braylen/  Jake/Cassian(Leia) - 197

Wedge/Biggs/Thane/I2 U-wing(Leia) - 200

Biggs/Thane/Braylen/  Cassian(Leia) - 199

These lists are still very  strong on both offense and defense, but there's some actual choice to be made during list building. 

On the other hand I believe that we need strong all-rounder lists to keep multiple repositioning aces and extreme bidding wars in check. IIRC before pts changes SNR lists' and ImpAces' bids grew, sometimes to pretty obscene levels.

On 5/27/2019 at 4:50 PM, GreenDragoon said:

Beef

Which of the Beef variants you see as the strongest? Obviously Ten is the most played fourth ship, but it seems to me that other options like Biggs+Selfless or even Thane/Horton can give Beef the edge in mirror or some bad matchups like swarms and ordnance carriers.

On 5/27/2019 at 4:50 PM, GreenDragoon said:

ARC-77

I realised that I answered that in a different place.

Edited by Pink_Viking