XXAA vs. 5Y w/ Analysis

By MasterShake2, in X-Wing Battle Reports

Some practice vs. 5x Y-Wings
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So, still currently running my Zari, Lulo, Ello, Nien list (but more on that later) and, of course, current meta boogey man is 5x Y-Wings with Ion turrets and 4 veteran turret gunners. When an experienced local player said he was looking for games against squadrons that surrounded the Y-Wings, it seemed like a good opportunity to learn some lessons all around. I'm going to run through this as briefly as possible, but this game was pretty long. Not long in terms of time because both of use knew what we were doing and the individual turns went by fast (part of that was a few turns where I was just trying to not get shot at resulting in few attacks by either side), but long in terms of it taking a ton of turns.
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The initial opening joust kind of didn't happen. 3 of his Y-wings proceeded towards the X-Wings that were pretty well spaced, but 2 hung back a little in formation to try and catch Zari. Zari was able to get past them and push minor damage through, but ended up on 1 hp. The first real joust attempt was burned when I was able to call an engagement distance on Nien correctly and do a 3 bank with a boost out of all of the arcs of the 3 Y's headed his way. Ello was able to duck under them a well. I was able to get a pretty good Tallon roll off with Nein onto Debris in a position to push some good damage through on Y-Wing with limited return fire...unfortunately that limited return fire (a single Y-Wing that had K-turned after Zari and was shooting him through debris with no mods) scored 2 hits that I spent my focus to dodge, then 2 more with an ion that I failed to dodge either of. In retrospect, Nien was at full health and would still be a challenge for the Y's to close with, so it was probably better to take the 2 just in case the Y got a good string with the ion. Anyways, that basically the end of Nien, but he was able to go out swinging. For several turns the Y's try to effectively engage, the most damaged one get's picked off, then the Y's start cornering L'ulo. They get 3 range 3 shots at a focused L'ulo, never roll more than 1 hit and L'ulo takes 2 damage because rolling nat evades is apparently for chumps.
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This, however, is where the game get's decided. My opponent seems to tunnel vision on trying to get the double tap on L'ulo to finish him off and starts chasing the A-Wing, but L'ulo is pretty happy to just brave Sir Robin it up. I get a good play when both Ello and Zari are able to line up on an only slightly damaged Y-Wing and Zari crack shots for the Initiative kill. Meanwhile L'ulo makes a few weird gambles skirting the board edge while threatening a 5 straight and flee which forces my opponent to keep his arcs a little too wide and allowing L'ulo to hover int he range 3 band. Finally, I get enough damage on the remaining 3 Y's that L'ulo dives back in and my start initiative killing his off 1 by 1. Final result was a 200-100 win.
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Discussing the game with my opponent, he was pretty certain that leaving his arcs forward while he was chasing L'ulo was a mistake. I do agree, but I wonder if having them pointed to the left or right from the beginning was the right call. To contextualize that thought (at least against a list like mine) I have 22hp to his 40hp. I have to trade hp at about a 2-1 ratio to win this game (and even then, that leaves me with basically 2hp left on the table). Even if he's about 50% behind me in terms of damage, he still wins with almost a full hp ship left especially because I lose ships faster. In that context, it might be the right call to accept that you'll never get the super joust and just settle for any damage trading at all. I'm not sure if detaching 2 Y-Wings for Zari was the right call because, while she ended up getting away and surviving the game, just having those Y's behind the main formation made dodging it a more difficult affair (and was ultimately fatal to Nien). It's definitely an acquired skill to judge when your best served by detaching elements or breaking formation entirely.
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On my end, there were parts of this game I could've done better, but really, my big take away was that flying a list like mine against a list like this is very mentally taxing and something that will be difficult if I'm at a large event and have been playing for the last 8-10hrs. Conversely, the health and damage of the Y-Wings means they're more forgiving of mistakes than my ships are. I'm not sure, even with more practice, that I can repeat this result over the course of a large event. If I play it once maybe, twice is dodgy, but if I run into quint Y-wings 3 times I definitely lose 1 of those games and probably with a garbage MoV. There was also another theme and something that kind of needs it's own thoughts section to clarify exactly what I mean, that is, L'ulo was a liability this game (and this isn't the first time).
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I'm definitely guilty of the heresy of swapping Tali out for Zari because I' m fine trading initiative for a pilot ability that not only matters, but is actually pretty amazing and I needed a blocker for aces anyways. She's also fantastic joust-bait, one of the best in the game. Now, I'm actually looking at another piece of pure heresy, swapping L'ulo for Greer Sonnel. L'ulo and Tallie are both making the rounds of pilots people think are super undercosted and the community as a whole definitely seems to love them, but Zari and Greer seem to barely register on player's mental radar. For an example of L'ulo being a liability, he was actually worse than Greer would've been for the majority of the game. The big reason being, whenever confronted with shots, he basically had to just chill in place because I couldn't afford the defense dice lost from a focus + boost. He also couldn't really turn his pilot ability on when there was a risk of being shot at even if he probably wasn't the target. He spent very little of this game throwing more than 2 dice. this has happened before, mostly when L'ulo is confronted with I6's or so many arcs that he can't get out of enough. Greer, on the other hand, just getting a free rotate every time she moves would've been far better throughout almost this entire game. Another part of this is just a read of the terrain i.e. do I actually need the I5 for those A-Wings to be relevant based on likely opponents and the answer is just a firm "no". The extra points would also facilitate a swap of crackshot for Predator and while I generally don't like bullseye EPTs, Zari gets ignored a lot mostly because chasing her is almost impossible and Greer wouldn't be that far behind.
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The other obvious question is if I feel like trading out the X-Wings, and I think the answer is still a firm "no" on that. Ello is not that well liked, but he does exactly what I need at a good price point and Nien usually gets to use his super power 2-3 times a game and it's pretty decisive. Plus, I like having a backup I5 in case the first 1 drops because the necessity of I5 is lower, but not gone by any means. So this leaves us basically with this list for the next round of trials:
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Greer Sonnel — RZ-2 A-Wing 36
Predator 2
Heroic 1
Ship Total: 39
Half Points: 20 Threshold: 2
Zari Bangel — RZ-2 A-Wing 35
Heroic 1
Predator 2
Ship Total: 38
Half Points: 19 Threshold: 2
Ello Asty — T-70 X-Wing 56
Heroic 1
Integrated S-Foils 0
Ship Total: 57
Half Points: 29 Threshold: 4
Nien Nunb — T-70 X-Wing 55
Heroic 1
Integrated S-Foils 0
Pattern Analyzer 5
Ship Total: 61
Half Points: 31 Threshold: 4

Edited by MasterShake2

Thanks for running this test. My super-local meta is generally anti-meta so I've not yet faced the 5Y bogeyman, but your analysis tallies with my expectations. I hope I never have to face it, ha ha.