Simple question: does the number on the bid dial change the result of the duel? If my dishonored 4 base guy duels an honored 3 base guy and bids go 1-5 respectively, does the guy with 4 always win?

As of today (I believe it was part of today's RRG update), the bid is no longer a modifier on the skill, so it will count. However, you can take a look under section D.7 of the RRG page 25.

D.6. Calculate dueling statistic ¶ ↑

The process of initiating the duel (in step D.1) will have established which statistic ( Mil skill, Pol skill, or glory) is being used to determine the results of the duel. Each player calculates the current value of that statistic for their character involved in the duel. Any skill modifiers that were active at the time the duel was initiated are still applicable during the duel.

• If multiple characters are involved in the duel on the same side, add their dueling statistics together. The value calculated in this step is treated as the skill value of a single character for the purposes of determining duel results. Those characters win or lose the duel together

D.7. Add honor bid, compare values, and determine result ¶ ↑

Each player adds their duel honor bid to the statistic value they calculated in step D.6. Compare the new totals on each side of the duel to determine the results.