So, I'm awful at statistics, but I was curious what missions were most/least likely in Hote.

I've arranged what I've found out based off of mission availability at the end of each mission block. Not that I don't include stuff like the "Recorded" trigger in Dark Recon, because it seems to be relatively negligible. Again, if someone is better at stats (and I'm sure almost everyone is), feel free to expand on this!

Again, not that this isn't the likelihood that a mission is played, per se, but the number of chances that it has of being picked after any one of the missions in the last block would be played . I have a chart mapped out with the various mission outcomes, but this forums is being difficult with allowing me to upload it.

After Dark Recon 's Block, there are three possible missions with six possible choice situations (Empire or Rebellion choosing any of the three missions).

In Dark Clutches 33.3%

On the Trail 33.3%

Inside Man 33.3%

After Story Mission One

Three missions with twelve possible choice situations

Double Agent 41.6%

Into a Corner 41.6%

Distruption 16.6%

After Story Mission 2

Three missions with twelve possible choice situations

History Repeats 25%

Enemies Closer 33.3%

On the Run 41.6%

After Story Mission 3

Two missions with six possible choice situations

Capital Escape 50%

The Realm of the Dark Side 50%

Again, I get that the math is pretty wonky, and obviously this won't account for player bias in stuff like mission name or anything, but I thought it was interesting how stuff like Disruption had so little opportunity compared to some other missions.

I created this graphic a while ago when I was curious about structure myself. It's not quite as detailed as what @subtrendy2 has. But it gives you an idea of what missions are available to who and when.

When I realised how the HotE missions chart was, I started to imagine about a campaign where the group can split and 2 heroes can go for a mission and 2 can go for a different mission. Group can regroup if they choose to do it, but if things go south they may split until the finale. Or perhaps even play 2 different finale missions. Double work for the imperial who partially play 2 separate campaigns with overlaps. Rewards are balanced already as they are, but there must be one single purchase phase at the end of all the missions of the same tier. This is quite good when hero group has difficulties in joining together regularly.

So, looking at @thestag s breakdown, you could do stats based on a 50/50 split of a Imperial or Rebel victory.

so, if Dark Recon has a 50/50 chance for either to win, it means that On the Trail and Inside Man have a much lower chance of being selected than From dark clutches.

because half the time, those two won’t be an option.

@thestag That's great! That's pretty similar to what I made, but a little more robust than mine.

And yeah @Majushi , the probabilities definitely change based on campaign progression. For instance, whatever options you get after Disruption would definitely count for less than what you would get for Double Agent, given how unlikely it is to play the former anyway.

On 7/28/2018 at 4:05 AM, Golan Trevize said:

When I realised how the HotE missions chart was, I started to imagine about a campaign where the group can split and 2 heroes can go for a mission and 2 can go for a different mission. Group can regroup if they choose to do it, but if things go south they may split until the finale. Or perhaps even play 2 different finale missions. Double work for the imperial who partially play 2 separate campaigns with overlaps. Rewards are balanced already as they are, but there must be one single purchase phase at the end of all the missions of the same tier. This is quite good when hero group has difficulties in joining together regularly.

I love that idea! Or maybe even two full groups of 4, where you essentially have two campaigns affecting each other (playable either with the same group, or with two different groups).

1 hour ago, subtrendy2 said:

@thestag That's great! That's pretty similar to what I made, but a little more robust than mine.

And yeah @Majushi , the probabilities definitely change based on campaign progression. For instance, whatever options you get after Disruption would definitely count for less than what you would get for Double Agent, given how unlikely it is to play the former anyway.

I love that idea! Or maybe even two full groups of 4, where you essentially have two campaigns affecting each other (playable either with the same group, or with two different groups).

Thanks @subtrendy2 !

I would love to play 2 campaigns that have a sort of co-dependence, but I have trouble getting enough people together for one campaign... such is life.

2 hours ago, subtrendy2 said:

@thestag That's great! That's pretty similar to what I made, but a little more robust than mine.

And yeah @Majushi , the probabilities definitely change based on campaign progression. For instance, whatever options you get after Disruption would definitely count for less than what you would get for Double Agent, given how unlikely it is to play the former anyway.

I love that idea! Or maybe even two full groups of 4, where you essentially have two campaigns affecting each other (playable either with the same group, or with two different groups).

Yes I do like the idea too. The reason I think it would work better with 2 groups of 2 heroes (without having to house rule anything), like originally presented by Golan Trevis, is that they can join back to form a 4-hero party for the final mission, which thematically would be awesome! In fact, they could join back many times over the campaign

Let's say all 4 heroes start the campaign and win Dark Recon also enabling On the Trail and Inside Man. Then the heroes split in 2 groups of two, one group possibly going after the historian, while the other group going after the missing crew. If they both win their respective mission, they could both decide to regroup to form a 4-hero party for the next mission or again split in 2 groups of 2 (possibly mixing the group again!). If the imperial player wins he could decide the fate of the rebel teams (do they are forced to regroup or still split to go after two different objectives?

EDIT : Oh and imagine if the 2 groups of heroes where played by different rebel players on different night such that if they ever join back in a 4-hero mission the rebel players could share information they have learnt during their respective 2-hero mission!!

One possible drawback is that it is generally said that 4-hero missions are more balanced than legendary 2-hero missions. Not sure if this also apply to HotE.

Also, the diagram visually reveals that, aside for the side missions, HotE plot follows a 5-mission long campaign with many branching possibilities. Something that is expected of the JR app campaign (ok less branching since it has been revealed to have 8 missions, but still). Could this possibly be the new campaign model of FFG? Honestly, I think I would be fine with 5-mission campaign that allows for many branching. Replayability is much better this way in my opinion than an 8-10 mission campaign where most of the replayability lies in the side missions, which most of the time bring nothing story-wise.

Good thoughts, @IanSolo_FFG !

Regarding the 5 mission campaign structure- I actually really like it. An intro, an interlude, a finale, and a few other missions thrown in between is a pretty good pace for a campaign.

@IanSolo_FFG the good part of this 5 missions campaign is the XP distribution which is more balanced than other campaigns. Also 10-11 XP point means in most cases a 1-2-3-4 build instead of exotic builds with high XP cards. It goes more towards the app and honestly I would house rule the ability of respec-ing characters so that people can do experiments.

For the split hero group version, I also believe that 2 heroes is unbalanced. This should be true regardless the campaign. 2 heroes with 4 speed can each move 16 spaces in one round or alternatively perform 8 attacks in one round. 4 heroes instead can each move 8 spaces in one round or perform 8 attacks. If we do the math 2 heroes are twice as fast as 4 heroes, they are as dangerous as 4 and their health in comparable to 4 heroes. The only advantages of 4 heroes is that they can split to explore in parallel different areas (very situational and usually this is only for side objectives), or they can split to avoid that they'll all get wounded (this is quite important but if you move faster, you get to objectives faster and imperial has less time and threat to wound heroes).

On ‎7‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 10:22 AM, thestag said:

I created this graphic a while ago when I was curious about structure myself. It's not quite as detailed as what @subtrendy2 has. But it gives you an idea of what missions are available to who and when.



Based on the above graphic I have estimated the odds of a mission appearing as per the below. (I have assumed each mission is 50/50 to either side)

Dark Recon 100%

On the Trail 16.7% (a 1 in 3 chance if Rebels win DR)
Inside Man 16.7% (same as OtT)
From Dark Clutches 66.7% (only Imperial choice? Is that really right?)

Disruption 20.8% (slow odd boost by being a Rebel choice if they win FDC)
Double Agent 45.8% (boosted by both IM, FDC and 25% of OtR)
Into a Corner 33.3% (at even odds. 1 in 3)

History Repeats 25.0% (slow boost continues from FDC boosting DA & IaC)
Enemies Closer 36.5% (FDC boost evening out here)
On the Run 38.5% (FDC boost evening out here)

Capital Escape 50.0%
Realm of the DS 50.0%

Because the finale comes down to who won the last mission, it's always going to be 50/50.

Interesting to see the odds bloat of FDC has lasting impact on DA, D & HR.
By the time we reach EC or OtR they're evening out while HR is still playing catchup...

...

I hope that makes sense to someone other than me?

12 hours ago, Majushi said:

Based on the above graphic I have estimated the odds of a mission appearing as per the below. (I have assumed each mission is 50/50 to either side)

Dark Recon 100%

On the Trail 16.7% (a 1 in 3 chance if Rebels win DR)
Inside Man 16.7% (same as OtT)
From Dark Clutches 66.7% (only Imperial choice? Is that really right?)

Disruption 20.8% (slow odd boost by being a Rebel choice if they win FDC)
Double Agent 45.8% (boosted by both IM, FDC and 25% of OtR)
Into a Corner 33.3% (at even odds. 1 in 3)

History Repeats 25.0% (slow boost continues from FDC boosting DA & IaC)
Enemies Closer 36.5% (FDC boost evening out here)
On the Run 38.5% (FDC boost evening out here)

Capital Escape 50.0%
Realm of the DS 50.0%

Because the finale comes down to who won the last mission, it's always going to be 50/50.

Interesting to see the odds bloat of FDC has lasting impact on DA, D & HR.
By the time we reach EC or OtR they're evening out while HR is still playing catchup...

...

I hope that makes sense to someone other than me?

Nice work! Makes sense to me (Validated the first 2 steps and I got the same probabilities). My only criticism is that your assumption of a 50/50 win probability might be a little simplistic . Obviously joking here as this is a reasonable assumption. Sadly there is no which-missions-are-balanced poll for Heart of the Empire (or I just can't find it). If one exists, we could replace the 50/50 probs with the ones from such a poll and (maybe) get an even better picture (assuming reasonable sample size.)

Yeah, @Majushi , that's definitely the stats skills that I'm lacking. Well done!

Obviously missions aren't 50/50, but outside of a wide poll, this is probably as close as we'll get.

I'm pretty sure that From Dark Clutches is a choice for both sides. That's what the graph I made reads, at least.

12 hours ago, Majushi said:

On the Trail 16.7% (a 1 in 3 chance if Rebels win DR)
Inside Man 16.7% (same as OtT)
From Dark Clutches 66.7% (only Imperial choice? Is that really right?)

Upon re-reading the win conditions for "Dark Recon", I made a mistake. The 3 different missions are technically always available depending on meeting certain mission conditions. But based on what I see in the mission, it seems unlikely that you would complete that task and then fail the mission. I need to update the graphic, but I'm on vacation and don't have the proper tools on my laptop. I'll try to upload a fixed one tomorrow.

1 minute ago, thestag said:

But based on what I see in the mission, it seems unlikely that you would complete that task and then fail the mission.

Yeah, I really liked the idea of certain missions only being available if certain conditions were met, but this is the only case I remember it happening, and it's kind of a goofy situation. I totally agree that in all but one specific situation would a Rebel fulfilling that objective also result in a Rebel win.

It would've been cool to have stuff like:

Quote

If a Rebel opens a blue crate, they retrieve the holodisk. Put 'x' mission into play.