Morale Probabilities

By hamooding, in Runewars Tactics

Hello everyone,

I recently bought my first core, but because of projects and finals I couldn't really play any games yet, so all I'm about to post is pure theory from my part.

I am planning on running 2 Oathsworn 2x2 with Bull Pennon, because I like the idea of flank routing and screaming "A SHAMFUR DISPRAY", but I was't sure if morale was reliable enough to build an army around.

So in order to escape working on projects and studying for finals, I worked on a table of probabilities for morale tests instead.

Some Info:

30 Cards in total

15 Severity 1 Cards

8 Severity 2 Cards

7 Severity 3 Cards

Of those, I think only Flee in Terror and Uncertainty are universally devastating, others are a lot more situational, and thats why I lumped those two below the table.

What do you guys think? Is it worth running those Bull Pennon Oathsworns? Is my math correct? Misjudged cards?

Morale Test Probabilities By Card.png

Morale Test Probabilities By Type.png

Edited by hamooding
Added probabilities by Type (fear, confusion, doubt)​​​​​​​

Morale can be very big in breaking huge stacks of units. But yes, you will need to draw as many cards as you can so that you can maximize your chances of pulling a decent 2 or 3 strength card. Yes, Fleet in Terror is one of the absolute best. Uncertainty is good, but is sometimes situational.

Discipline Breakdown: Scoring a dead figure can be nice, and most lists with a big stack depend upon a key upgrade. Definitely not as good as Flee in Terror, but you take what you can get.

Betrayal: When it comes to knocking down a big 3x3 stack of Infantry, hitting them for good damage and then causing them to damage themselves can whittle the stack down to nothing very quickly.

Loss of Faith: Extremely situational, but you are getting rid of at least one extra unit, and sometimes the tray makes a different on rerolls, which reduces overall damage against you.

I've really not focused heavily on morale yet, but I've seen many games so far where a 3-4 pull morale had absolutely devastating effects.

I'd encourage you to also break them down by type. If memory serves, none of the severity-1 cards are Doubt, while Flee in Terror and Rising Panic are Fear. This helps inform the relative strengths of Steadfast.

Updated with types, it seems that the Death Knights are resistant Flee in Terror, which is huge.

Reanimates are resistant to doubt which is only 6 out of 30 cards, but these are strength 2 and 3 cards.

There could be a fun debate on which Steadfast keyword is the most useful, Doubt, Fear, or Confusion.

Im thinking Steadfast Fear. Uncertainty, Flee in Terror, and Betrayal are the cards I fear most. Of those three, I typically run MSU, so punching myself in the face isn’t so bad. A small bonus is that you make yourself resistant to a lot of the morale tests caused by shooting into melee

Edited by Church14
3 hours ago, Church14 said:

There could be a fun debate on which Steadfast keyword is the most useful, Doubt, Fear, or Confusion.

Im thinking Steadfast Fear. Uncertainty, Flee in Terror, and Betrayal are the cards I fear most. Of those three, I typically run MSU, so punching myself in the face isn’t so bad. A small bonus is that you make yourself resistant to a lot of the morale tests caused by shooting into melee

Definitely agree. Honestly one of the most dangerous cards in my experience is Rising Panic - it's like a stepping stone to more severe tests.

I disagree on Rising Panic. More often, it feels like I spend two tokens, draw two cards, and resolve Rising Panic, putting me right back where I started. If Fear Incarnate were around, that would at least net some damage, but who runs that card? ;)

6 hours ago, Bhelliom said:

Definitely agree. Honestly one of the most dangerous cards in my experience is Rising Panic - it's like a stepping stone to more severe tests.

I agree. It's like a gateway morale card. Or something.

4 hours ago, Budgernaut said:

I disagree on Rising Panic. More often, it feels like I spend two tokens, draw two cards, and resolve Rising Panic, putting me right back where I started. If Fear Incarnate were around, that would at least net some damage, but who runs that card? ;)

When you fire into melee, and your opponent draws that severity-1 morale test against your unit that is engaged with the target, being immune to Rising Panic is a pretty big deal. That's why I like Steadfast (Fear) so much.

58 minutes ago, Parakitor said:

I agree. It's like a gateway morale card. Or something.

When you fire into melee, and your opponent draws that severity-1 morale test against your unit that is engaged with the target, being immune to Rising Panic is a pretty big deal. That's why I like Steadfast (Fear) so much.

Oh. I guess I don't have much experience with ranged attacks against units that allies are engaged with. Maybe it will be more relevant with Kethra.

Steadfast fear is definitely the one to go for, especially for firing in melee as you basically ignore over half of strength 1 cards especially rising panic, which is only really effective there.

Doubt seems particularly weak though, as betrayal adds a basic attack with no rerolls or modifiers, and loss of faith can net you as little as 1 figure as the enemy chooses which tray to remove and they will always choose the one with the least figures.

Also worth noting, once you hit strength 4 morale tests, none of the steadfasts do anything only Ravos the Everhungry's steadfast does anything.

Edited by hamooding
I stand corrected
12 minutes ago, hamooding said:

Also worth noting, once you hit strength 4 morale tests, none of the steadfasts do anything.

If I'm not mistaken, there is actually one unit in the game that has Steadfast 2. Not too hard to guess who ;)

On 5/3/2018 at 10:19 PM, Maktorius said:

If I'm not mistaken, there is actually one unit in the game that has Steadfast 2. Not too hard to guess who ;)

Is it the Rune golem? ?