52 minutes ago, catachanninja said:To whoever is looking at the events, how many hera attack shuttles and or ghosts?
GSP Worlds #3
Edited by Boom Owl
The no trip empire just blows my mind, it seems like such a good matchup
2 minutes ago, catachanninja said:The no trip empire just blows my mind, it seems like such a good matchup
The meta is being pushed towards big orange big purple though
16 minutes ago, catachanninja said:The no trip empire just blows my mind, it seems like such a good matchup
People play weird stuff at kit tournaments, man.
14 minutes ago, jagsba said:The meta is being pushed towards big orange big purple though
🤔
19 minutes ago, jagsba said:The meta is being pushed towards big orange big purple though
Top 16: 6 Spamtex. 1 AggressorSloane. 1 Wookiespam. 1 5Y (?). The other 7 went i5-6.
Top 32: 11 Spamtex. 1 AggressorSloane. 2 Wookiespam. 1 5Y. 1 FOcho. 1 weird Scum mix (43220). 1 Trip Ewing. The other 13 relied on i5-6.
Same is true if you look at all 4-2 results.
You might enjoy trying to taunt me. I'm enjoying how accurately you present yourself.
If you compare the initiatives of the 6 nantex from Concord dawn
15 of the 17 have an average initiative of 4 while the other two have an average of 3.66
This conclusively proves that the init for 6 nantexans are going up.
12 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:I just hope you all realize how insane 17% of field is. It wasn't reached in 1.0, and it is especially crazy now that we have 4 more factions.
First of all, we have absolutely seen numbers this large before, and we saw them sustained over entire seasons in 1.0 (not merely single tournaments.
Statements like this detract from your overall point, which is that 17% is large - it'd just be better to focus on that.
12 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:Funny how more nantex pushed the field towards more large orange. (and towards more large base while we're at it)
7 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:Are you also fine with the consequence of more large orange and purple?
So, has anyone actually performed that time-series? I haven't seen the data shown anywhere?
That would be: the last three tournaments *compared to* the orange/purple of the *last season*.
Because, anecdotally from memory... the orange and purple felt awfully high last season too.. Other than droid swarm, I don't exactly recall a plethora of generics swarming tables.
So if the hypothesis is: "nantexans are forcing the average initiative up," my argument would be the appropriate measurement would be to contrast it to the last season.
1 hour ago, catachanninja said:The no trip empire just blows my mind, it seems like such a good matchup
I agree. At the exact time it would be a good time to pull it out, people are literally jumping ship because whisper costs a little more, and (I think) people can't just box joust with aces anymore?
1 hour ago, Chumbalaya said:People play weird stuff at kit tournaments, man.
🤔
What @Chumbalaya said.
3 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:So, has anyone actually performed that time-series? I haven't seen the data shown anywhere?
That would be: the last three tournaments *compared to* the orange/purple of the *last season*.
Because, anecdotally from memory... the orange and purple felt awfully high last season too.. Other than droid swarm, I don't exactly recall a plethora of generics swarming tables.So if the hypothesis is: "nantexans are forcing the average initiative up," my argument would be the appropriate measurement would be to contrast it to the last season.
Sure but what if I just looked if there were more big orange than little orange in one event. That's basically the same thing
1 hour ago, catachanninja said:The no trip empire just blows my mind, it seems like such a good matchup
It's less good than it seems. It's akin to 1.0 before autothrusters; the only way to avoid getting shot is to stay out of range. The goal then is to take as few 2 die shots as possible, but that puts a greater reliance on variance, which we all know will eventually fail us.
1 hour ago, Chumbalaya said:People play weird stuff at kit tournaments, man.
Dismiss all you want, but I have never seen a kit tournament come anywhere close to 110 players
7 minutes ago, hargleblarg said:It's less good than it seems. It's akin to 1.0 before autothrusters; the only way to avoid getting shot is to stay out of range. The goal then is to take as few 2 die shots as possible, but that puts a greater reliance on variance, which we all know will eventually fail us.
The goal of triple aces isn't to avoid getting shot - it's to force the opponent to "pick one" and punish with 2.
2 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:The goal of triple aces isn't to avoid getting shot - it's to force the opponent to "pick one" and punish with 2.
I understand that. Usually the punish happens because you have an advantageous position and your opponent cannot effectively re-engage against the ships they didn't choose. So you get 2-3 turns of largely uncontested shooting before you have to disengage. With the Nantex, you get 1 turn. Empire Aces don't have a ton of front-loaded damage, so you're only really likely to kill one Nantex in a single round of fire, and even that isn't a guarantee. Next turn, the Nantex are back on target, and you have to either disengage hard or lose a war of attrition with a severe numerical disadvantage.
All that said, I think a lot of empire ace players have pivoted towards FO aces. Kylo in particular is chunkier and more forgiving than Soontir, while Holo/Vonreg provide a similar damage output to Vader for fewer points should they explode.
Also, the only Empire ace list in the cut is Supernatural-Adv.Sensors-Concussion Grand Inquisotor and Adv.Sensors-Outmaneuver Rexler. Banking hard on I5 maneuverability to never get shot.
Edited by hargleblarg7 minutes ago, hargleblarg said:I understand that. Usually the punish happens because you have an advantageous position and your opponent cannot effectively re-engage against the ships they didn't choose. So you get 2-3 turns of largely uncontested shooting before you have to disengage. With the Nantex, you get 1 turn. Empire Aces don't have a ton of front-loaded damage, so you're only really likely to kill one Nantex in a single round of fire, and even that isn't a guarantee. Next turn, the Nantex are back on target, and you have to either disengage hard or lose a war of attrition with a severe numerical disadvantage.
I disagree your headsim is as consistently catastrophic as you believe.
3 minutes ago, hargleblarg said:All that said, I think a lot of empire ace players have pivoted towards FO aces. Kylo in particular is chunkier and more forgiving than Soontir, while Holo/Vonreg provide a similar damage output to Vader for fewer points should they explode.
Also, the only Empire ace list in the cut is Supernatural-Adv.Sensors-Concussion Grand Inquisotor and Adv.Sensors-Outmaneuver Rexler. Banking hard on I5 maneuverability to never get shot.
early photos of that transition indicate more box jousting through obstacles (a poor decision in a worse faction).
7 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:First of all, we have absolutely seen numbers this large before, and we saw them sustained over entire seasons in 1.0 (not merely single tournaments.
please show me. The highest i've seen from 2016 to 2018 was TripJump at 16% for Worlds 2017, lower if we look at the entire wave. Similarly GhostFenn went up to 15% over the entire wave.
I'll review this period between August and December 2020 once all the large events are in. You're aware of course that we have also a historic low of events and games played.
14 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:So, has anyone actually performed that time-series? I haven't seen the data shown anywhere?
That would be: the last three tournaments *compared to* the orange/purple of the *last season*.
Because, anecdotally from memory... the orange and purple felt awfully high last season too.. Other than droid swarm, I don't exactly recall a plethora of generics swarming tables.
So if the hypothesis is: "nantexans are forcing the average initiative up," my argument would be the appropriate measurement would be to contrast it to the last season.
Of course that is the comparison - unless you buy into the incredibly bad faith bs from Jagsba - and I have. And of course it's also a bit more complicated. Does a i651 list contribute as much as a i65 list? Does it count if it is FennGang with 6111? It's wrong to simply average ps. A better idea is to look at number of lists with at least 1 pilot at i5-6, but I would not want to count Fenn 6111.
And also, have fun arguing about which tournaments are valid choices druing Covid lockdowns. I am super out of that bs, espacially at a place like here.
2 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:I disagree your headsim is as consistently catastrophic as you believe.
Not headsim: games on the (virtual) table. These things have better time on target than RZ-2s, and while they are slightly squishier, you get one more of them. I'm not saying it's an impossible matchup, because obviously Aces can beat 5A, but it was never easy, and the Nantex are harder.
5 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:early photos of that transition indicate more box jousting through obstacles (a poor decision in a worse faction).
I don't typically fly silencers, and I haven't seen any games of FO aces vs. Nantex specifically, so I can't comment here.
Some quick hits.
-do not have these together.
-bring the 3 smallest gas clouds
-Do not go through obstacles where you cut off obvious exists (have a ‘quantum’ dial)
-Engage the same turn.
-nothing here guarantees you win - nothing is 100%, and believing you being the ‘right’ list means you’re entitled to win will just make you angry
******
Darth Vader (67)
Afterburners (6)
Ship total: 73 Half Points: 37 Threshold: 3
"Whisper" (60)
Fifth Brother (12)
Ship total: 72 Half Points: 36 Threshold: 3
Soontir Fel (54)
Ship total: 54 Half Points: 27 Threshold: 2
Total: 199
******
Fifth Brother (42)
Homing Missiles (5)
Ship total: 47 Half Points: 24 Threshold: 2
Darth Vader (67)
Afterburners (6)
Ship total: 73 Half Points: 37 Threshold: 3
Soontir Fel (54)
Crack Shot (2)
Shield Upgrade (8)
Hull Upgrade (7)
Ship total: 71 Half Points: 36 Threshold: 3
Total: 191
******
these are just two quick grabs, as basically there’s so many permutations of triple imperial aces it’s genuinely ‘DWYWM’
Do we actually have any pictures of an ace vs nantex game that isn't just long-form jousting?
Just now, Chumbalaya said:Do we actually have any pictures of an ace vs nantex game that isn't just long-form jousting?
I had a great game against Corey Milstein yesterday that came down to being decided by literally a single dice roll (one more damage on a nantex would have won him the game). Wish we’d been on stream or recorded it, maybe we could do a rematch at some point
7 minutes ago, Chumbalaya said:Do we actually have any pictures of an ace vs nantex game that isn't just long-form jousting?
My understanding is that gold squadron has been trying to stream non-nantex games during Swiss so that viewers don't get burnt out by the cut. Nantex are 38% of the top 16, so hopefully today there will be some relevant matches.
[Edit: only 5 "ace" lists made the cut (and I'm including Boba Fenn, Boba Guri, and Rey Zizi Tallie in there so *shrug*) so we may not see any ace v. Nantex on stream today.]
Edited by hargleblarg6 hours ago, Chumbalaya said:Just Extended, actually.
I mean, fires don't usually stay put. Wouldn't surprise me if 6x Marksmanship Nantex becomes a Hyperspace thing. If nothing in Extended can easily beat it, why not bring it in Hyperspace?
Lots of spare points, to be sure, but these bugs like bid.
Marksmanship isn't as good as Crack Shot, but MMS is a sneaky-good upgrade. Forcing crits can really add up. It's easy to headsim MMS being pretty weak, but in actual games, it's often felt better than I expected.
6 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:please show me. The highest i've seen from 2016 to 2018 was TripJump at 16% for Worlds 2017, lower if we look at the entire wave. Similarly GhostFenn went up to 15% over the entire wave.
Here is the link to the data we made back in 2018 for Dee when he made similar statements for ghost Fenn:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kNos2DhJfYOwKfFBVZS3GbnADB4WL6NvByuCeNmLdtc/edit
TLDR:
2016
palp aces - 24%
double scouts -8.2%
triple scouts - 7.6%
2017
Mindlink variants - 22.6%
palp aces - 9.8%
triple imperial - 8.9%
2018
Ghost fenn - 13.6%
’100 point ace’ lists - 13.0%
NymRanda - 9.1%
11 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:Of course that is the comparison - unless you buy into the incredibly bad faith bs from Jagsba - and I have. And of course it's also a bit more complicated. Does a i651 list contribute as much as a i65 list? Does it count if it is FennGang with 6111? It's wrong to simply average ps. A better idea is to look at number of lists with at least 1 pilot at i5-6, but I would not want to count Fenn 6111.
And also, have fun arguing about which tournaments are valid choices druing Covid lockdowns. I am super out of that bs, espacially at a place like here.
I am not he.
I am not saying it doesn’t require some sort of assumption, but I find the statement ‘nantexans are shifting the meta to higher initiative’ suspect, as the last season felt dominated by high initiative except for swarms, and without the data, it’s just a statement.
I was merely noting you made a time series statement without any time series data, and presented it very matter of factly.
whereas I’m saying the ‘high orange’ has basically just been there outside of some swarms. It’s been droids, and a little torkil last season.
5 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:Here is the link to the data we made back in 2018 for Dee when he made similar statements for ghost Fenn:
Thanks. I need to see under the hood to believe you. I note that TripleJumps are missing in 2017, which suggests to me that they went into Mindlink, which would make that wrong.
8 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:I am not saying it doesn’t require some sort of assumption, but I find the statement ‘nantexans are shifting the meta to higher initiative’ suspect, as the last season felt dominated by high initiative except for swarms, and without the data, it’s just a statement.
I was merely noting you made a time series statement without any time series data, and presented it very matter of factly.
whereas I’m saying the ‘high orange’ has basically just been there outside of some swarms. It’s been droids, and a little torkil last season.
Ok. Feel free to define what exactly should be counted and I might give it a look. But until then... *shrug*
1 hour ago, GreenDragoon said:Top 16: 6 Spamtex. 1 AggressorSloane. 1 Wookiespam. 1 5Y (?). The other 7 went i5-6.
Top 32: 11 Spamtex. 1 AggressorSloane. 2 Wookiespam. 1 5Y. 1 FOcho. 1 weird Scum mix (43220). 1 Trip Ewing. The other 13 relied on i5-6.Same is true if you look at all 4-2 results.
You might enjoy trying to taunt me. I'm enjoying how accurately you present yourself.
My initial thought was wow, I expected significantly worse than this. Since nantexes were ~20% of the field, those are pretty reasonable results, right? We'd expect in a perfectly fair game that the top 16 would have ~3 or 4, and the top 32 ~6 or 7. Obviously overperforming, but by less than I'd have personally expected. It's probably overstating to say that the lists that made the cut did so by relying on <X> to beat nantexes. At 20% of the field, assuming an equal distribution of opponents (we already saw it isn't), you have these odds to encounter nantex lists:
0 Nantex Lists: 26%
1 Nantex List: 39%
2 Nantex+ Lists: 35%
That's the lower bound, while the upper bound looks something like 35% of lists being nantex (based on the top 32)
0 Nantex Lists: 7.5%
1 Nantex List: 24%
2+ Nantex Lists: 68.5%
Realistically the truth is more complicated and somewhere in the middle, but my attempt here is to demonstrate that it's very hard to draw conclusions and say that the stuff that isn't nantexes that's in the cut is good against nantexes. They might be, but given a top 32, it's likely that:
8 never played against nantexes at all
13 played against nantexes exactly once (and half of them lost that game)
11 played against nantexes two or more times, the vast majority with very mixed records.
The fact that nantexes themselves are sprinkled in among these numbers as well makes this even more complicated. Once we have a listfortress entry we can calculate some interesting stuff like overall winrate, winrate vs. certain initiatives, etc, but before we have the concrete data it's very hard to draw conclusions like this.
8 minutes ago, GreenDragoon said:please show me. The highest i've seen from 2016 to 2018 was TripJump at 16% for Worlds 2017, lower if we look at the entire wave. Similarly GhostFenn went up to 15% over the entire wave.
I'll review this period between August and December 2020 once all the large events are in. You're aware of course that we have also a historic low of events and games played.
Sadly we don't really have useful data for a comparison for first edition xwing, out of a couple of NOVAs, and one worlds where we were able to collect all the lists. That's not to say the current situation is OK or anything, just that there's no real historical data to compare to.
Quoteedit: I just went through the 24 rebel players, those are the initiatives
- 556
- 55
- 1556
- 566
- 3x 555
- 56
- 3x 45
- 3x 456
- 156
- 455
- 25 (Chopper Dash)
- 1345
- 446
- 444
- 1356
- 34455
- 2x Wookies
That's an average of 4.13
QuoteOf course that is the comparison - unless you buy into the incredibly bad faith bs from Jagsba - and I have. And of course it's also a bit more complicated. Does a i651 list contribute as much as a i65 list? Does it count if it is FennGang with 6111? It's wrong to simply average ps. A better idea is to look at number of lists with at least 1 pilot at i5-6, but I would not want to count Fenn 6111.
Chutzpah