Normally I give this place a pass for just not understanding statistics but honestly y’all should know better by now.

taking three data points from exactly one tournament* and advertising that as some kind of numerical “cutrate/winrate” data is among the more disingenuous arguments I’ve seen here.

*not trying to be a jerk but I don’t think this tournament counts as top-tier X-Wing play either - not just the lists but also the play I saw on stream. I’m not trying to cast shade on anyone here but this felt a lot more like a giant store champs or wave kit event than a system open or Worlds.

4 minutes ago, Kyle Ren said:

Normally I give this place a pass for just not understanding statistics but honestly y’all should know better by now.

taking three data points from exactly one tournament* and advertising that as some kind of numerical “cutrate/winrate” data is among the more disingenuous arguments I’ve seen here.

*not trying to be a jerk but I don’t think this tournament counts as top-tier X-Wing play either - not just the lists but also the play I saw on stream. I’m not trying to cast shade on anyone here but this felt a lot more like a giant store champs or wave kit event than a system open or Worlds.

I’m pretty sure we have this discussion a bunch. I agree with you in principle (outside of thinking system opens and worlds are any better than store champs) but what else do we have to go on?

We probably over exaggerate things and read too deeply into everything, but is that worse than giving up and calling everything unknowable?

There just isn’t enough data to do a good job, so we do our half measures and try to point out where they aren’t good enough.

@pheaver wins a game against @Oli_186th with wookies and @Boom Owl creates a thread on wookies. People suggest nantex are too cheap, a bunch make cut at a 200+ person event, and it's met with a dismissive wave and and chuckles. Got it.

8 minutes ago, gennataos said:

@pheaver wins a game against @Oli_186th with wookies and @Boom Owl creates a thread on wookies. People suggest nantex are too cheap, a bunch make cut at a 200+ person event, and it's met with a dismissive wave and and chuckles. Got it.

That’s a fair point. Pastrami Arena Aces went 27-12 in a tournament with 1044 games played.

I /i feel /i like I keep hearing jousters do well after points changes, and I’m pretty convinced these are good maybe particularly against jousters.

I think the Wookiees are first edition hangover multiplied by current/former world champion hype, but it doesn’t hurt to pay attention to both.

did I make this post entirely to say Pastrami Arena Aces? The world may never know.

18 minutes ago, Kyle Ren said:

Normally I give this place a pass for just not understanding statistics but honestly y’all should know better by now.

taking three data points from exactly one tournament* and advertising that as some kind of numerical “cutrate/winrate” data is among the more disingenuous arguments I’ve seen here.

Ok. Just ignore the "watchlist" part. Just ignore that I emphasize again and again and again that data in current 2.0 is mostely unreliable. You could also know better. And yet here we are.

28 minutes ago, jagsba said:

I'll have you know this thread requires you to place arbitrary numbers on your feelings to pretend like there's some sort of quantitative analysis that can be done

K.

16 minutes ago, AEIllingworth said:

I’m pretty sure we have this discussion a bunch. I agree with you in principle (outside of thinking system opens and worlds are any better than store champs) but what else do we have to go on?

We probably over exaggerate things and read too deeply into everything, but is that worse than giving up and calling everything unknowable?

There just isn’t enough data to do a good job, so we do our half measures and try to point out where they aren’t good enough.

Yeah I totally get wanting something to talk about, I just think we should skip the data phase and get straight to the feelings if our “data” is just gonna be a couple anecdotes that support our feelings.

Like uh, idk I don’t have any data to prove that hyperspace is more fun than extended, I just strongly feel that way based on personal experience, and instead of trying to find some sort of data to fit that narrative I’d rather just tell people why I personally like hyperspace and hope they see my side of things and encourage more hyperspace events to happen.

similarly, I would say if anyone here is scared of nantexes, I’d rather they just say they’re scared of them and open it up to a discussion of how to play around them, rather than pointing at a couple anecdotes from a relatively memey event and immediately calling for nerfs to the list.

I for one rather like nantexes being reasonably good now without ensnare and it really warms my heart to see them doing well as they were actually designed, with the drawbacks of keeping tractor tokens and without the oppressive control element. The one time I played against them, I didn’t really see any glaring holes in my opponent’s strategies and the game was pretty skewed in my favor, granted this was in the confines of the FORT so I was forced to play a reasonable list instead of whatever architected jank I might have been tricked into playing in extended.

That is to say, I don’t think ensnareless nantex are trash anymore but I’m not very worried about them taking over the meta in any meaningful way. Of all the swarm lists I’ve seen, it seems to be one of the higher skill ones tbh, and that’s saying a lot because I generally think swarms take more thought than most other archetypes. That is to say even if they do win this tournament, I think it’s probably just a sign of a good player, and will be well-earned.

Mostly I just think it’s neat that the game is being so well balanced that even nantex are being forced to play hyperspace even when they have ensnare available to them now.

at least there aren't any 5x RZ2s in cut

1 hour ago, Kyle Ren said:

Normally I give this place a pass for just not understanding statistics but honestly y’all should know better by now.

taking three data points from exactly one tournament* and advertising that as some kind of numerical “cutrate/winrate” data is among the more disingenuous arguments I’ve seen here.

*not trying to be a jerk but I don’t think this tournament counts as top-tier X-Wing play either - not just the lists but also the play I saw on stream. I’m not trying to cast shade on anyone here but this felt a lot more like a giant store champs or wave kit event than a system open or Worlds.

What should we talk about then? I know this tournament measn very little, but we haven't got serious xwing since February and it's likely we won't get anytime soon. Obviously a couple of people making the cut in an unofficial TTS tournament is not the second coming of Jesus Christ but at least it's something we can discuss about.

I don't know if Nantexes spam is good, bad, healthy or NPE or whatever, but why should't we argue on it?

Can we also all agree that being able to move arc and reposition after bumping or after obstacles is terrible design regardless on how strong it is?

1 minute ago, Sunitsa said:

I don't know if Nantexes spam is good, bad, healthy or NPE or whatever, but why should't we argue on it?

Yeah I wasn't trying to shut down discussion at all, merely reacting to the use of Galaxies data anecdotes as justification for it. I posted my opinions on Nantex in a later post, but you're allowed to think differently.

One little thing I'd like to add here too, our decisions about Nantex shouldn't be based on how powerful/meta-dominant they are, but how fun they are for both players. I remain firmly opposed to ensnare Nantex and it has nothing to do with their balance and everything to do with their potential for NPEs.

6 minutes ago, Sunitsa said:

Can we also all agree that being able to move arc and reposition after bumping or after obstacles is terrible design regardless on how strong it is?

I don't personally mind this that much I guess, since they pay for it with a tractor token, but I think this is a much better argument against nantexes than just the balance argument.

5 minutes ago, Kyle Ren said:

Yeah I wasn't trying to shut down discussion at all, merely reacting to the use of Galaxies data anecdotes as justification for it.

Wait, you think it is more reasonable to entirely ignore the event? I don't know who said they are a problem because of this event - I didn't.

12 hours ago, GreenDragoon said:

A cutrate over 50% and a winrate of 69% say no. But it's just one event so far. Definitely on the watchlist though.

The point is and was that it is a first objective data point that tells us to watch that list a bit better. Dismissing the tournament entirely would be as ridiculous as saying the list definitely is a problem because of what we saw this weekend.

12 minutes ago, Kyle Ren said:

One little thing I'd like to add here too, our decisions about Nantex shouldn't be based on how powerful/meta-dominant they are, but how fun they are for both players.

Of course consistently high performance should be a factor, what are you talking about? If a list keeps winning way above average then it's likely undercosted. That should be corrected by points - that's why we have points adjustments.

3 hours ago, Kyle Ren said:

*not trying to be a jerk but I don’t think this tournament counts as top-tier X-Wing play either - not just the lists but also the play I saw on stream. I’m not trying to cast shade on anyone here but this felt a lot more like a giant store champs or wave kit event than a system open or Worlds.

I'm sorry you had to see me play on round 3. Stream nerves always get to me when I play on GSP (0-2 on stream in Crossroads Classic 3 and now 0-1 on Galaxies) and my brain leaves my skull. Sure, I should have strain rolled and boosted with Holo after coordinating him a focus from Tavson, but I worked out the math that even in the spot I put him, Holo had a 65% survival rate while Finn in his condition had a 53% survival rate (most game states from those interactions would be 1hp Holo in position to do things with Coordinate + Proud Trad and a 1hp Finn not in a position to do much before he dies). It was a greedy gamble I shouldn't have taken and I got what was coming to my impatient self. Because Tavson's 4 dice blankout with focus mod meant that I was in probably an insurmountable game state, I just wanted to be over with the round ASAP, to get that loss behind me, and to take as long a recollection break as I could temporally afford. I could run for the time remaining, but it would be a feelsbad if all those arcs still potshotted me to death. I was checked out and Yolo'd the 4k spam to score some more points, hoping for some undeserved average or good results with force to mitigate the loss. I will eat my humble pie and force myself to watch the game when it drops on Youtube, no timestamp jumps, no speed changes, and no breaks, full on Clockwork Orange style. No sugarcoating, that was some bad play and arguably my worse played game this whole year.

OK, you have the definitive proof that I suck on the stream. But now we must compare results if you play in the galaxies. I didn't do great (ended 4-2, 37th with 1499 MOV and 0.62ish SOS IIRC), but to be fair, that was better than I anticipated I'd get (3-3, with the ballpark of 1200 MOV).

On a more positive note, I'll probably pick up one of these so that I can partake in the London event:

https://www.amazon.com/Sonic-Alert-SBB500SS-Extra-Loud-Flashing/dp/B000OOWZUK#:~:text=The Sonic bomb has a,pillow to be shaken awake.

3 minutes ago, Hoarder of Garlic Bread said:

I'm sorry you had to see me play on round 3.

hey like I said I'm not trying to cast shade on anyone, based on other tournament results and streams I've seen you on, I decided to bet my GSP internet money on you that game. I could tell you were trying to get it over with with Kylo at the end, but that aggression isn't a bad strategy when down on points even, his force can make him surprisingly jousty. If I'm just looking at that game, I think there were stream nerves for both players to be honest, I noticed some kinda questionable plays from the resistance too there (not blocking the 4K from Kylo, not blocking Tavson the second turn of joust, etc.). It may very well be an artifact of online play but nerves seemed particularly high yesterday and I saw a lot more silly plays than is typical on stream.

IDK, just kinda getting a feeling these last couple months that, while fun, TTS is better suited for casual than competitive play

2 minutes ago, Boom Owl said:

thread: nantex fires

tournament: empire trip aces for the 7th consecutive meta

2 minutes ago, svelok said:

thread: nantex fires

tournament: empire trip aces for the 7th consecutive meta

Nantex still has a chance at it! And the two trip imp aces are six different pilots, five chassis. Is that a good thing? Who knows!

2 minutes ago, svelok said:

thread: nantex fires

tournament: empire trip aces for the 7th consecutive meta

And the funniest thing is the empire players crying ffg nerfed trip aces out of the meta for the 6th consecutive time.

But again I don't think we could rate this tournament much, altough is still way more than nothing

is this how nantex won all of their games?

really makes you think

38 minutes ago, svelok said:

really makes you think

That blocking aces into bullseyes is a key thing for this list? Was that in question?

Nantexes looks nasty but I'm more scared by Sloane RAC... And the one in final doesn't even have Darth Vader crew...

14 minutes ago, DoubleDown11 said:

That blocking aces into bullseyes is a key thing for this list? Was that in question?

Not getting your aces blocked is a key thing for the other list too, but I agree that's way too easy to judge when you have nothing at stake and no tournament fatigue on your back on top of stream anxiety

Nantex in general just makes me wonder why FFG seemed to forget to add the word "fully" before the word "execute" for basically an entire wave.

Some locals said that I was too intrigued by a janky list when I blogged the following about 2 weeks ago:

SpaceOwls and his runner up of 6 Nanteces, all with Crackshot and half with Predator, is terrifying when flown in his competent hands (his loss was on some unfortunate variance to Devon IIRC).

That was not a meta call or a prediction, but merely intrigue that a certain chassis is viable. Glad to be surprised and see it shake things up! I'm really stoked that we'll probably get some more SpaceOwls content. And Deathrain/Deathfire 2 weeks from now. Also, Ion Bombs can be antispam techo instead of merely anti ace tech. A tad disappointed that it will mean more generic SF usage because they tend to be boring, but at least that'll mean more Avenger usage.

1 hour ago, DoubleDown11 said:

Nantex in general just makes me wonder why FFG seemed to forget to add the word "fully" before the word "execute" for basically an entire wave.

That poor intern.

13 minutes ago, Npmartian said:

That poor intern.

Nah, Max Brooke did it intentionally.

Heck, they went back and fixed Oddball Y-Wing to include fully execute. It's intentional. Because "interesting design space."