つ ◕◕ ༽つ SUMMON 5PM  ༼ つ ◕◕ ༽つ

39 minutes ago, Boom Owl said:

つ ◕◕ ༽つ SUMMON 5PM  ༼ つ ◕◕ ༽つ

What happens at 5 PM?

32 minutes ago, Kaptin Krunch said:

What happens at 5 PM?

Testing:

That’s a lot of Awings

-wings

13 hours ago, impspy said:

How do you make it so that the A-wing is actually a choice to take instead of a Z-95? I think that's part of the problem (same one the Syck suffers from in Scum imho).

Tycho Celchu at I-5. Nothing else matters then.

So, if you were estimating, how many total dice do your y think have been rolled for a game of xwing, ever?

32 minutes ago, Brunas said:

So, if you were estimating, how many total dice do your y think have been rolled for a game of xwing, ever?

Super rough estimate, at the average time there's 100,000 people worldwide playing X-Wing, the average of those in my experience seems to play about 2 games per week, there's 52 weeks in a year, X-Wing has existed for 5 years, the average game is like, 20 rounds, each round there's about 3 shots which might roll on average 3 dice per attack or defense...

So I'd put the ballpark at ten billion?

5 hours ago, Kieransi said:

So I'd put the ballpark at ten billion?

He said 'a game' not for the entirety of the game...

In response though I wouldn’t hazard a guess. I’m guessing fast play with Fel, constantly rolling four or five green dice vs three reds would add up quickly...

1 hour ago, LagJanson said:

He said 'a game' not for the entirety of the game...

In response though I wouldn’t hazard a guess. I’m guessing fast play with Fel, constantly rolling four or five green dice vs three reds would add up quickly...

He said 'Ever'

Chris just made the dice app roll 630k dice.

10 minutes ago, Kaptin Krunch said:

He said 'Ever'

Chris just made the dice app roll 630k dice.

I should stop reading the forum on my phone...

34 minutes ago, Kaptin Krunch said:

He said 'Ever'

Chris just made the dice app roll 630k dice.

That's probably on the very low side if we're going with a version of "ever" that includes all games played since X-wing launched. Especially if you include non-tournament casual games.

By taking a very valid sample of the single last game TSG put out (their overlay makes fast forwarding to dice easier), there were just a bit over 100 dice rolls per game. A tiny 8-10 people kit tournament could easily get to 2,000 dice rolled if this very detailed sample were to be representative

2 hours ago, Kaptin Krunch said:

He said 'Ever'

Chris just made the dice app roll 630k dice.

To be fair, when I play Han+R2D2+Lando against a swarm, I probably do like 1 billion rolls in that game.

9 hours ago, Kieransi said:

Super rough estimate, at the average time there's 100,000 people worldwide playing X-Wing, the average of those in my experience seems to play about 2 games per week, there's 52 weeks in a year, X-Wing has existed for 5 years, the average game is like, 20 rounds, each round there's about 3 shots which might roll on average 3 dice per attack or defense...

So I'd put the ballpark at ten billion?

Ten billion seems high, but even if it's only an order of magnitude off I'll need to pay amazon to roll that many dice on the dice app. SAD.

1 hour ago, drjkel said:

That's probably on the very low side if we're going with a version of "ever" that includes all games played since X-wing launched. Especially if you include non-tournament casual games.

By taking a very valid sample of the single last game TSG put out (their overlay makes fast forwarding to dice easier), there were just a bit over 100 dice rolls per game. A tiny 8-10 people kit tournament could easily get to 2,000 dice rolled if this very detailed sample were to be representative

Yeah, and something like worlds is about a hundred thousand rolls in general for the Swiss - which means that some players at those games are likely seeing the outrageous strings of dice rolls that appear whenever you have a sample that large - rolling 20 paint on 20 red dice is a pretty good strategy.

300 players -> 150 games * 6 rounds -> 900 games * 100 dice rolled per game -> 90,000 dice rolled in a 300 person 6 round event.

Probability don't iron out until you get to huge numbers anyways. It's very possible that someone is "unlucky" just because not enough dice have been rolled on his behalf to average them out.

My sons are known for ridiculously hot dice. One of them has played 200-300 games, the other 5-10. The samples are ridiculously too small for it to mean anything. If anything, when my oldest's dice returned to the mean, he was crushed and had to learn probabilities at the tender age of 7 to then learn to mod his dice instead of relying on rolling hot every single time. He then started making faces when people complained about hit-focus-blank. SO proud!

1 hour ago, drjkel said:

Probability don't iron out until you get to huge numbers anyways. It's very possible that someone is "unlucky" just because not enough dice have been rolled on his behalf to average them out.

My sons are known for ridiculously hot dice. One of them has played 200-300 games, the other 5-10. The samples are ridiculously too small for it to mean anything. If anything, when my oldest's dice returned to the mean, he was crushed and had to learn probabilities at the tender age of 7 to then learn to mod his dice instead of relying on rolling hot every single time. He then started making faces when people complained about hit-focus-blank. SO proud!

This.

For example, last night I got around 400k dice rolls parsed, and the result is... That it's not enough rolls to draw a real conclusion.

My college level probabilities classes are far enough away that I couldn't figure out how to math what a reasonable sample would be, but looking on Stack Exchange, one person brought up that to test whether one side of a six-sided dice is fair with a 98% interval requires 766 rolls. Given the distribution of results on our 8-sided dice and the fact that we really care about multi-dice scenarios, you get a really, really large number before probabilities have a significant bearing on your lived reality.

It's part of why I'm always leery of X-wing analysis that goes DEEP in probabilities to make a point. In any given game or tournament (or lifetime?), there are no guarantees you'll average out, far from it. Getting down to the furthest decimals to argue what is better or more optimal quickly devolves into "feels." This brand is just "I feel that dice will average out at some point" instead of "I feel I'll roll hot and I'll be fine."

I've taught my sons the "average" result for dice and how to figure them out for multi-dice scenarios, noting that there's no guarantees of anything that goes with "the average."

It does make for interesting thought experiments though. That's a good use of filthy Patreon dollars!

2 hours ago, drjkel said:

My sons are known for ridiculously hot dice.

From my experience, that is generally true of any kid. It’s funny how it seems they have better dice luck.

9 minutes ago, sirjorj said:

From my experience, that is generally true of any kid. It’s funny how it seems they have better dice luck.

Honestly, I think it's just that kids have little to no risk aversion and will straight yolo every turn.

Straight yoloing, even with average dice, leads to terrifying things happening every turn.

Also, looking at the first run of dice rolling, here were my results:

Crits: 28175

Hits: 85597

Focus: 57036

Blank: 56972

Total: 227760.

I'll save you a step and give the expected values too:

Crits: 28470

Hits: 85410

Focus: 56940

Blank: 56940

This is like yelling into the wind, but these are early results. There's no conclusions to draw yet. With how easy it is to generate effectively unlimited data, I intend on getting significantly more before bothering to use my brain.

So expected value is incredibly statistically accurate?

2 minutes ago, viedit said:

So expected value is incredibly statistically accurate?

Kind of. The crits are (way) off, the others less so. Somebody better at statistics could tell you if it's by a significant amount though, I was going to worry about all that once it finishes running for another 20 hours or so today.

9 minutes ago, Brunas said:

Honestly, I think it's just that kids have little to no risk aversion and will straight yolo every turn.

Straight yoloing, even with average dice, leads to terrifying things happening every turn.

As the father twin boys, change that to "kids will straight yolo everything they do."

1 minute ago, Scott Pilgrim2 said:

As the father twin boys, change that to "kids will straight yolo everything they do."

It's a legitimate strategy!

...it actually is, since there's so many unknowns in life, you don't even have enough info to know you're straight yoloing, haha

1 minute ago, Brunas said:

Kind of. The crits are (way) off, the others less so. Somebody better at statistics could tell you if it's by a significant amount though, I was going to worry about all that once it finishes running for another 20 hours or so today.

I know jack and crap about modeling and creating random and statistically accurate processes. What I do know is that those results are about 1083% more "randomly accurate" than the shuffle algorithm that Google uses for randomizing playlists. :p.