I do not think it's very feasible to think more than 1 turn ahead. Because of the amount of variables (both what your opponent does, as well as attack results), the rest is much less "thinking ahead" and more having a "loose strategy" of what you'd like to happen.

A very fuzzy decision tree.

5 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

I do not think it's very feasible to think more than 1 turn ahead. Because of the amount of variables (both what your opponent does, as well as attack results), the rest is much less "thinking ahead" and more having a "loose strategy" of what you'd like to happen.

A very fuzzy decision tree.

Oh good. I was worried I wasn’t thinking hard enough. I go back to that echolocation bloom and eliminate some trees based on obstacles and stuff, but after that it is generalized directions and paths.

So uh... question.... Considering the current state of things, how are we expecting lists to be 'checked' by the TO before a tournament? Just accept print outs and assume no tampering or price bugs?

6 minutes ago, LagJanson said:

So uh... question.... Considering the current state of things, how are we expecting lists to be 'checked' by the TO before a tournament? Just accept print outs and assume no tampering or price bugs?

since nearly all tournaments are kit tournaments and don't matter enough... I don't expect TOs to check lists at all.

1 hour ago, Tlfj200 said:

I do not think it's very feasible to think more than 1 turn ahead. Because of the amount of variables (both what your opponent does, as well as attack results), the rest is much less "thinking ahead" and more having a "loose strategy" of what you'd like to happen.

A very fuzzy decision tree.

I think initial turns can be planned more than one turn, but I agree that good plans are more about having defined decisions and limiting the worst options more than being some grandmaster that makes everything fall into their plan. You're trying to push the chaos toward situations that favor you, not engineering precision machinery.

1 hour ago, Tlfj200 said:

I do not think it's very feasible to think more than 1 turn ahead. Because of the amount of variables (both what your opponent does, as well as attack results), the rest is much less "thinking ahead" and more having a "loose strategy" of what you'd like to happen.

A very fuzzy decision tree.

This is exactly it. It's why the best strategies often involve leaving yourself as many choices as possible. You can't plan exactly what you will do, so at least keep your options open for when those variables fall into place (and leaving your options open make the variables harder for your opponent to predict).

1 hour ago, Tlfj200 said:

I do not think it's very feasible to think more than 1 turn ahead. Because of the amount of variables (both what your opponent does, as well as attack results), the rest is much less "thinking ahead" and more having a "loose strategy" of what you'd like to happen.

A very fuzzy decision tree.

I think it is possible, like a chess grandmaster sees 5-6 turns ahead, while a journeyman thinks 1-2 turns ahead ... the top top players who are truely consistent and 'see the matrix' are likely thinking 2 turns ahead in x-wing ... possibly more. I don't think it's coincidence that big tournament cuts have the same names over and over again.

15 hours ago, Transmogrifier said:

Theorist wrote an article a while back that is a good example of one element of what Biophysical is saying

https://teamcovenant.com/star-wars-x-wing/x-wing-301-turn-mapping

TLDR: What do your individual ships want to be doing each turn? How do you make sure that each of your ships are able to “hit their mark” and perform the optimal task each turn? Does your overall squad composition / deployment / maneuvering support each ship performing optimal roles turn to turn?

Great article... However it does give me a laugh that an article written in Feb of this year says Xwing is in a golden age. I guess that timing would make it just after the Traj Sym + Genius nerf and just before ghost fenn took over completely?

Just now, evcameron said:

Great article... However it does give me a laugh that an article written in Feb of this year says Xwing is in a golden age. I guess that timing would make it just after the Traj Sym + Genius nerf and just before ghost fenn took over completely?

Yep - author not playing competitive x-wing.

If not playing competitive x-wing, then x-wing was ALWAYS in a golden age.

10 hours ago, AEIllingworth said:

On the topic of hard-to-describe tactics, how do you all visualize a game?

I don’t often pick out more than one or two exact turns in advance, but I definitely see a bit of a flow between the rocks and around the edges, and I try to leave turbulence and eddies for my ships and pounce when their flow gets too strong or only heads through a single gap.

That isn’t a great way of describing it, but I can’t really come up with anything better. It’s something like a heat map made all out of vectors, or something?

I can't say that I always manage to do it, but I generally try to think one turn ahead with, a "I want THIS to happen" option first and a "But can do THIS if it doesn't" option second. Also, if it looks like only one option is viable, then I go all-in on that option...you're pot-committed at that point, so might as well toss it all in and hope for the best. The whole, "If you can't get out, get in" kinda thing.

19 minutes ago, Dreadai said:

I think it is possible, like a chess grandmaster sees 5-6 turns ahead, while a journeyman thinks 1-2 turns ahead ... the top top players who are truely consistent and 'see the matrix' are likely thinking 2 turns ahead in x-wing ... possibly more. I don't think it's coincidence that big tournament cuts have the same names over and over again.

Disagree strongly, because 5-6 turns in chess is a deterministic tree of things - xwing has decisions based on unknowns.

Actually what we're talking about this week.

Regarding the idea of how ships move together, I'd argue that it's relevant but not all consuming. When the rebel tie came out it was pretty obvious where it wanted to be, but it did make life harder when it wanted to fly entirley with ships that want to do 1 straights every turn. There have been a few second edition lists i let up on, like a jabba falcon with Fenn and another friend because all the debris I was dropping was getting in fenns way. But in x wing there's only what 11 different shapes for the templates, unless two ships both have insane dials compared to the paradigm we're used to, I don't think it'll ever be too much of an issue.

GSP dropped the clip from the World panel with Alex Davey talking about how the majority of events will be Extended. I now get the vibe that Second Edition will be more of a side event for larger events and for local events will be "if you have a lot of new players, do that format" kind of thing.

I'm sad.

1 minute ago, gennataos said:

GSP dropped the clip from the World panel with Alex Davey talking about how the majority of events will be Extended. I now get the vibe that Second Edition will be more of a side event for larger events and for local events will be "if you have a lot of new players, do that format" kind of thing.

I'm sad.

If that's true, what is the "avenue" for second edition format to qualify "to the top"?

4 minutes ago, gennataos said:

GSP dropped the clip from the World panel with Alex Davey talking about how the majority of events will be Extended. I now get the vibe that Second Edition will be more of a side event for larger events and for local events will be "if you have a lot of new players, do that format" kind of thing.

I'm sad.

I'm happy! ... but honestly I do so the pros and cons to both. The big question this raises for me is how do FO and Resistance (and CIS and Republic once they come out) fair in this format with far less ships and pilots, at least at the start.

1 minute ago, evcameron said:

I'm happy! ... but honestly I do so the pros and cons to both. The big question this raises for me is how do FO and Resistance (and CIS and Republic once they come out) fair in this format with far less ships and pilots, at least at the start.

Spoiler: poorly.

(there might be 1-2 lists that do okay)

3 minutes ago, Tlfj200 said:

If that's true, what is the "avenue" for second edition format to qualify "to the top"?

Who knows. Maybe the System Open, previously "Hyperspace Qualifier" event is Second Edition? So you are out of the main event, can now field a Second Edition list for that "second chance" event?

1 minute ago, evcameron said:

I'm happy! ... but honestly I do so the pros and cons to both. The big question this raises for me is how do FO and Resistance (and CIS and Republic once they come out) fair in this format with far less ships and pilots, at least at the start.

They'll either have ridiculously OP ships and/or obvious list combos...or lose a lot. I've joked about wanting to destroy the world with Rey/Poe, but I don't really want that. I don't want Rey/Poe to be the new NyMiranda or Ghost/Fenn.

22 minutes ago, Brunas said:

Actually what we're talking about this week.

You aren't going to get me to subscribe again that easily!

I enjoy watching players like Paul Heaver and Duncan Howard on stream and thinking that they are turns ahead - are you saying it's just luck?

4 minutes ago, gennataos said:

They'll either have ridiculously OP ships and/or obvious list combos...or lose a lot. I've joked about wanting to destroy the world with Rey/Poe, but I don't really want that. I don't want Rey/Poe to be the new NyMiranda or Ghost/Fenn.

?

3 hours ago, Dreadai said:

You aren't going to get me to subscribe again that easily!

I enjoy watching players like Paul Heaver and Duncan Howard on stream and thinking that they are turns ahead - are you saying it's just luck?

No, that's the point - they're winning because they're playing well, but playing well does not involve somehow divining the board state 2 turns from now.

1 minute ago, Brunas said:

No, that's the point - they're winning because they're playing well, but playing well does not involve somehow diving the board state 2 turns from now.

I don't think it's as complete and precise as chess (maybe a bad example) but I think good players think ahead a bit, and really good, consistent players have a strategy that they then play towards with tactics that they employ and change turn by tun ... but they are always thinking about what they need to do over the next 2-3 turns to get closer to delivering the end goal. Does that make sense?

30 minutes ago, Brunas said:

Disagree strongly, because 5-6 turns in chess is a deterministic tree of things - xwing has decisions based on unknowns.

Actually what we're talking about this week.

I agree with your disagreement. Also because 6 turns in chess is 6 movements of the opponent's pieces. The board changes in small ways each turn. 1 turn in X-wing is between 2 and 8 opponent's movements, plus all the unknowns you've discussed.

12 minutes ago, Biophysical said:

I agree with your disagreement.

The discourse in this thread is evolving.

Gotta say the past couple pages of discussion have been real interesting.

I think many many players try to think of the game in these ways but its hard and can be unclear when the thought even mattered or worked.

41 minutes ago, catachanninja said:

Regarding the idea of how ships move together, I'd argue that it's relevant but not all consuming. When the rebel tie came out it was pretty obvious where it wanted to be, but it did make life harder when it wanted to fly entirley with ships that want to do 1 straights every turn. There have been a few second edition lists i let up on, like a jabba falcon with Fenn and another friend because all the debris I was dropping was getting in fenns way. But in x wing there's only what 11 different shapes for the templates, unless two ships both have insane dials compared to the paradigm we're used to, I don't think it'll ever be too much of an issue.

Creator of fsr1 said the way you had to fly with so many different dials was part of the reason he started playing the list.

22 minutes ago, jagsba said:

Creator of fsr1 said the way you had to fly with so many different dials was part of the reason he started playing the list.

So many different dials just to stay with effectively a 1 straight...