I've written a little browser based app that calculates how likely you are to get a given number of successes and let's you select various conditions like blessed, re-rolls etc.
You can use at http://thesmalluniverse.net/ or see the source code at https://github.com/JonathanDHarris/eldritch-dice
Hope someone finds it useful!
Awesome! Thanks for the work!
Neat app, although I tried to calculate the odds of one particular outcome I had and, er, it's not broad enough to calculate the result. In other words, it just gave me 0% (which to be fair, sounds about right).
These were the rolls in question: I had seven dice with a blessed investigator for a test and failed on every die. Next round, same dice, same blessing, same test, same result. So 14 dice with a blessing and not one success.
If anyone can tell me the exact probability of that happening, I'd be grateful. I'm pretty sure it'll never happen again. That said, if there's one sure thing in Eldritch Horror, it's that if I have six or more dice for a test, I'll be lucky to roll one success.
P( no success | 14 blessed dice) = (0.5) ^ 14 = 0.006103515% (roughly 6 times out of 100,000).
[Edit to add %]
Edited by ricedwlitP( no success | 14 blessed dice) = (0.5) ^ 14 = 0.006103515% (roughly 6 times out of 100,000).
Wow, thanks! The investigator may have been blessed, but I was clearly cursed that day.
It happens to the best of us. Next time, pick Rex. Then you'll know you're asking for it
It happens to the best of us. Next time, pick Rex. Then you'll know you're asking for it
Bizarrely, Rex has been pretty consistent for me! It's those cocky investigators who expect to pass that are sure to fail. Except Ursula. She's by far my most successful and reliable investigator. Love her.
Bizarrely, Rex has been pretty consistent for me! It's those cocky investigators who expect to pass that are sure to fail. Except Ursula. She's by far my most successful and reliable investigator. Love her.
We call her Ursula Wins