A Cruel Mistress:
Soontir Fel boosts and barrel rolls into range 1 of Howlrunner for the first round of shooting. Four attack dice hit the table. The opponent cries out in relief at four blanks. Arcs are measured and one Academy Pilot just barely has a Range 1 shot at Soontir. A feeling of dread pervades the room as 3 natural crits are rolled. Still Soontir is unhurt and still has a stealth device and he still has a focus. Not that it helps as four blanks signal the end of the TIE Interceptor. Insult is added to injury as 3 Direct Hits are pulled from the deck.
The rest of the game passes in a haze. It seems that every turn after, the enemy can't guess wrong with maneuvers. Every roll of the dice go badly. Sure, a couple enemy TIEs perish, but it hardly matters. The game was lost to bad luck. After the game, when the odds are run, it's determined that luck was slightly below average for both sides. How can that be?
We've all been there, looking at the ashes of a list that should have been powerful in the match-up, cursing fate. But it is often not luck that loses a game. It is morale.
Morale:
"In the dreadful presence of suffering and danger, emotion can easily overwhelm intellectual conviction, and in this psychological fog it is so hard to form clear and complete insights that changes of view become more understandable and excusable. Action can never be based on anything firmer than instinct, a sensing of truth." -Carl von Clausewitz in 'On War'
Morale is a military concept, but once explained, it can be found to pervade much of our life. Morale is a nebulous concept primarily referencing the capacity of a group to pull together and pursue a common purpose in spite of obstacles. When applied to the individual, it relates to the ability to overcome setbacks and think critically and aggressively under stress.
Morale can be shattered by sudden shocks or seemingly insurmountable losses. In the above example, the game was not lost because Soontir was lost. The loss of Soontir was the shock to the player, causing them to be less critical and more predictable. They stopped flying their best with the remaining ships. Target selection, maneuver prediction, destination visualization, and movement selection all suffered. Average dice on both sides were perceived to be terrible as each success makes less impact on the mind as the failures do. In a tournament, this can snowball. A bad showing in one round can lead to one playing sub-optimally which can lead to further bad rounds.
We are all subject to this psychological peril. It is part of what makes us human/droid/twi'lek/hutt. In essence, the moment we believe we have lost, we start to lose. It is true that luck determines games as sometimes chance really does doom a game. But it happens far less than we perceive it to happen.
What To Look For:
“Knowing yourself is the beginning of all wisdom.” -Aristotle
The first step in countering flagging morale is to be able to detect it. When playing a game, keep a conscious, watchful eye out for truly unlucky rolls. Any time a roll is all blanks for instance. Also keep an eye out for losses of key ships, clipping asteroids, or any other rare and negative event. It is at these points that we suffer the greatest blows to our morale.
Internally, be watchful of any tendency to believe a game is lost, particularly if both sides still have half their forces remaining. Be wary of starting to set dials quickly, particularly when coupled with a fatalistic outlook on the result. Pay attention to whether you are starting to expect the worst when throwing dice. Any thought of punishing dice should be considered.
The key is to determine if these are passing thoughts or part of a trend of negative perception. The latter is the state for which to watch. The goal is not to form an internal thought police but to bring to conscious attention any downward spiral of negative outlook that will adversely impact performance.
These are all perfectly natural thoughts and feelings. They are not aberrant and there's no shame in these feelings. They are just indicators that can be used to reevaluate one's mental state. Only when one detects a problem can that problem be addressed.
What To Do:
When one realizes they have started to suffer from defeatism, it it time to do something about it.
First, pause for a minute and take a deep breath. Take a step back, physically if necessary. The initial goal is to break out of the current negative spiral of thoughts.
Next, take a moment to examine the situation from an objective point of view. Pretend that you are walking up on a game played by two strangers. Evaluate the board. is there any particular side that is winning outright? Then take a closer look at the enemy ships. If controlling those, is victory assured? What is the greatest danger to that side?
The goal is to stop reacting to the foe, but to start acting. This is the crux of every military movie motivational speech you can think of. Fight not on the terms offered but on favorable terms.
Finally, remind yourself that this is a game. The goal is to have fun. There are few consequences to losing a game. Even at Worlds, a loss will not result in existential peril. Family is not threatened. Standard of living is not hazarded. And that is where you find something interesting.
Prevention:
There are a number of things we can do prior to a game to help alleviate the problems of low morale. We are more susceptible to emotional shock when we aren't prepared physically. Food is a big one. Make absolutely sure to have a good meal, and during a tournament meals throughout the day. Stay hydrated, even if that means forking over ridiculous amounts of money for a bottle of water. Be sure to get enough sleep. The advice to not be sick is useless, but be aware that illness can severely impact ones resistance to morale shocks.
Try to eliminate other physical issues as well. In a tournament, make sure to wear good shoes and comfortable clothing. Sit down when possible and relax when convenient. Wear light clothing if anticipating the area to be warm, but have warmer clothing available. In short, be as comfortable and focused as possible.
Paradoxical Strength:
The stakes are low. The outcome bleak. This means that the result of playing it safe will be a loss but possibly one with points on the board. The outcome of big risks is a small chance of victory in the face of likely doom.
The downside of taking big gambles and risks is eliminated. Rarely is it preferable for a predictable moderate loss over a chance at victory. We have all heard some variation on the phrase warning us that a cornered animal is the most dangerous. The time for a daring plan against all odds is when one is against all odds. The outcome is an amazing last minute victory or, more likely, a quick and painful last stand with an opponent admiring the risk taken.
K-Turning across a rock with one health left, for instance, could gain one the range 1 unanswered shot needed to win. Blocking Oicunn's movement with a 1 health ship to prevent him from boosting out of arc of the remaining ship? Usually foolish, but potentially an end to a game spoken of for years to come. When the future is dark, it is important to remember that few games of X-Wing are decided until the last ship is off the board.
It is through unpredictability that victory against skilled opponents is found. The trap is that, when one starts to lose ships and seemingly bereft of luck, that individual often becomes more predictable. By noticing this and actively working against it, one instead becomes more unpredictable and dangerous.
Opponents Morale:
We have built a good, strong community. Many of us know those who are good players with lots of potential, but the moment the game turns against them, they fold under the pressure. Many of them are suffering from much of what has been discussed here.
Were this real war, with lives at stake, one would be foolish not to attempt to strike, to break the opponent psychologically. But this is a game, among friends. Even in our most strenuous tournament, we are a community formed around a game we love. As such, it is shortsighted and foolish to attempt to inflict this on someone willingly.
Further, our greatest stories, the games we recall with crystal clarity and share with good friends over cold beer, are not founded on crushing a player who gave up half way through the game. Our brightest moments can be found only at those times when competition was fierce.
When detecting an opponent who seems to be spiraling towards shattered morale, try to lighten the mood. Remind them that it's a game and compliment good moves and lucky rolls. The burden may be on them, but any good player should try to make the game a bit better with encouragement, commiseration, and good humor. Make the world a slightly better place, even if it means a loss. After all, is it preferable to be playing a game with more bright, good, and friendly players or to have a few more bits of plastic for a game with a smaller, less friendly population? Remember to Fly Casual.
Conclusion:
It is important to keep an eye on the big picture when playing the game, especially in a tournament. Chance sometimes goes against us. But rarely is the game lost by luck, but rather how we react to that event. This state of fugue can cause a spiral of defeatism and loss, with each perceived bit of bad luck seeming to outweigh every bit of good fortune. Take time to ensure that the game is being evaluated objectively. Weigh options and risks to avoid getting caught in the trap of being predictable. This can be difficult and can often require significant conscious effort. Becoming discouraged will lessen the chances of victory while at the same time decreasing the enjoyment derived from the game.
Remember to breathe and focus on the game as it stands. Not the previous turn where the dice went astray. Have fun and do your part to make sure your opponent is having fun too.
