Okay, so that thread got locked.

I'm pretty sure that we can continue in a more civilized fashion here.

The point where I, at least, left off (other than speculating about the affect that Dash Rendar is going to have), is that we currently do have a Rock<Paper<Scissors meta, I don't think we're lacking Lizards and Spocks because of a lack of collective imagination.

I think that we've probably already hashed out the question of this meta being a function of the material base or intersubjectively constructed by the players. If I understand them correct, our heavyweights, MajorJuggler and Vorpal Sword come down on the opposite and respective sides of this question, but their dispute seems to go off on a methodological tangent. That's fine; I think they both have dissertations to write.

Also the point about 'just fly better' is quite beside the point.

So, what remains for us:

Rank speculation of how the meta is going to be affected by Wave 5. I do think that Nera from Rebel Aces + Roark might have some affect as a Phantom hunting duo, but I still have to test this theory.

Your thoughts?

IMO a-wings are going to be the big benefit from rebel aces. The b-wings are interesting, but they're still slow and easy to out-maneuver. And once you equip them properly they get extremely expensive. A-wings, on the other hand, can now get PS 9-10 without sacrificing PTL, gain a ridiculously maneuverable option in Jake, and get proton rockets to kill or cripple a target in a single shot. I haven't been able to playtest it that much yet, but so far Jake and Tycho seem to be able to beat the phantom in the PS war, out-maneuver and kill it, and still leave enough points in your list for anti-Falcon ships.

Wave 5 is IMO going to reinforce the current metagame. It will bring a little more diversity in turret ships and give the imperials a Falcon equivalent, but it's really just going to be a case of "which of your 3 turret ships do you want to spend 50+ points on". The only way I can see it making much of an impact is if adding even more turrets finally kills off the ACD phantom and indirectly opens up the metagame again.

What are the "Rocks", the "Papers", and the "Scissors"?

In our last tournament our winner was an Etahn build using Wes and a bunch of Z-95s. Second place was a hyper-defensive single phantom with a mini-swarm escort. Are either of these archetypes really one of the three top contending builds? or is list 2 there simply because it uses a phantom?

I am a little curious to see if local tournaments are going to be like what I hear Attack Wing venues turning into, dominated by the one powerful ship (in our case, it's going to be Dash and anti-Dash lists), but I'm willing to wait to see if it comes to pass before jumping to the conclusion that it's going to happen. I think the possibility is there.

Any rock, paper, scissors game is anything but a balanced game. At most, it could be defined as 'consensual imbalance'. People accept one option having almost certain victory over them, just because they have practically a guaranteed victory over another option. So, by definition, all options are imbalanced.

I don't believe that's the route FFG wishes to take for their product, honestly.

I wish that FFG would think in a less hard-counter-y style. This promotes meta-gaming and list counters. If you want flying counter, lists shouldn't have a super uphill battle versus certain lists from turn 0.

I think the DECIMATOR will help a lot. Imperials will have a big turret ship they can make Rebels cry with. That's fine. I want to see more options for older ships though. Interceptor fix, Bomber fix. Etc.

I am really against 4 dice 360 Dash. That doesn't sound fun. Sorry. Just not fun. Not casual. Not flying.

Nera's Deadeye Flechettes FCS doesn't seem to be all that great imo. A Phantom simply has to do a green move aided by its decloak and its pretty fine.

Roark + Nera might be tougher, but you're spending a crap ton of points for that combo and highly reduced firepower.

I think A-wings might see a renaissance in the 42 point region: 2 As and 1Z. So, for Dash and Fat Han.

Again, could someone provide an example of these hard lists that are direct counters to one another?

HLC Dash is a powerful list. So are loaded Falcons. Are they both powerful lists or is one a "rock" and one a "scissor"?

I mean if nobody can specify some of these threat and counter lists to illustrate the point then I don't think the meta can be defined by this rock-paper-scissors theory that is being mentioned here. Instead the meta has some very powerful lists that just happen to be strong against some and not so strong against others.

Take high-skill interceptors for instance. This list can kill Dash and is one of the stronger list-types to employ generally. Or, is this a "rock" to a Dash "Scissor". If so, what's Paper?

I am really against 4 dice 360 Dash. That doesn't sound fun. Sorry. Just not fun. Not casual. Not flying.

Have you actually played against HLC Dash, or are you just assuming that the sky is falling? Remember that there isn't all that much difference between HLC and Falcon + gunner + predator/marksmanship, and getting the HLC turret means giving up gunner. The HLC hits you hard with one attack and punishes low-agility ships like b-wings and decimators, the Falcon gets the same end result by making you spend all of your defensive tokens and then hitting you again against unmodified dice.

Nera's Deadeye Flechettes FCS doesn't seem to be all that great imo. A Phantom simply has to do a green move aided by its decloak and its pretty fine.

But having to do a green maneuver (IOW, bank or straight) is a pretty significant limit and makes the phantom a lot more predictable. You can't do hard turns or fast maneuvers, and the phantom very often depends on that 1-turn after decloaking to make up for its lack of a k-turn. And of course it's still a 3-dice attack with focus and/or target lock, which contributes to killing the phantom.

Roark + Nera might be tougher, but you're spending a crap ton of points for that combo and highly reduced firepower.

This isn't true. Remember that Roark is also a cheap turret ship in addition to handing out PS 12. A gold y-wing with an ion turret costs 23 points, Roark with an ion turret gives you PS 4 and a PS 12 buff for only 24 points. So really you're paying 3 points over a basic ion HWK to add PS 12 to a ship, or 1 point over a hypothetical PS 4 generic HWK. That's really not that much to pay, assuming you want a turret ship at all. In fact unless you're desperate to cut points Roark makes generic turret y-wings and HWKs obsolete.

I think A-wings might see a renaissance in the 42 point region: 2 As and 1Z.Han.

Try playing with Tycho and Jake and the new upgrade cards then, if you think a-wings are limited to prototype pilots supporting Falcons. Elite a-wings are amazing now, and a lot of fun to fly.

I have a feelng you're trolling or trying to make a point but....

the three archetypes/variants are:

Phantom + mini-swarm (most typical Whisper VI ACD RC + 5 AP)

Fat Han + 3Z (Han Luke-crew MF-tltle C3PO EU + 3 Tala) (Other variants include adding Biggs + 1Z)

8 Tie Swarm 4 Obs, 4 AP

Phantom tends to be 20% of the field of a tourney

Fat Han about 32%

Tie Swarm something like 5 to 8%

Numbers are off the top of my head, see Regionals and Nationals thread for better stats.

Then there should be approximately 40% of the field that is non Rock Paper Scissors. However, I believe the stats also show that these lists do not place well.

The Regionals and Nationals numbers have a modestly large sample size. Arguments of sample size will be directed toward the Tie Advanced fix thread with relevant angry, yet logical refutations of this inane comment or the Starcraft forums, where you will learn the meaning of forum hell.

The tendency of list counter tends to be:

Phantom beats Tie Swarm beats Fat Han beats Phantom.

They aren't impossible matchups, just hard for the average player.

I am really against 4 dice 360 Dash. That doesn't sound fun. Sorry. Just not fun. Not casual. Not flying.

Have you actually played against HLC Dash, or are you just assuming that the sky is falling? Remember that there isn't all that much difference between HLC and Falcon + gunner + predator/marksmanship, and getting the HLC turret means giving up gunner. The HLC hits you hard with one attack and punishes low-agility ships like b-wings and decimators, the Falcon gets the same end result by making you spend all of your defensive tokens and then hitting you again against unmodified dice.

Nera's Deadeye Flechettes FCS doesn't seem to be all that great imo. A Phantom simply has to do a green move aided by its decloak and its pretty fine.

But having to do a green maneuver (IOW, bank or straight) is a pretty significant limit and makes the phantom a lot more predictable. You can't do hard turns or fast maneuvers, and the phantom very often depends on that 1-turn after decloaking to make up for its lack of a k-turn. And of course it's still a 3-dice attack with focus and/or target lock, which contributes to killing the phantom.

Roark + Nera might be tougher, but you're spending a crap ton of points for that combo and highly reduced firepower.

This isn't true. Remember that Roark is also a cheap turret ship in addition to handing out PS 12. A gold y-wing with an ion turret costs 23 points, Roark with an ion turret gives you PS 4 and a PS 12 buff for only 24 points. So really you're paying 3 points over a basic ion HWK to add PS 12 to a ship, or 1 point over a hypothetical PS 4 generic HWK. That's really not that much to pay, assuming you want a turret ship at all. In fact unless you're desperate to cut points Roark makes generic turret y-wings and HWKs obsolete.

I think A-wings might see a renaissance in the 42 point region: 2 As and 1Z.Han.

Try playing with Tycho and Jake and the new upgrade cards then, if you think a-wings are limited to prototype pilots supporting Falcons. Elite a-wings are amazing now, and a lot of fun to fly.

Tried some elite As. Not my style. The results also aren't good for the two dice, even helped by PTL and Outmaneuver and good flying.

Good point on Roark. I'm going to think about that more.

I'm not in agreement with your Nera assessment... Yes a 3 dice shot has a chance of getting a hit through the 4 dice, but its still pretty dismal. I don't think the damage will be useful. Especially when the rest of your list likely won't have a shot on the Phantom or will be shooting with 2red vs 4 green.

However, shooting at PS12 with a ion turret nearby to avoid... I could see that start to get hard to fly against.

I never said the sky is falling. I said I don't think its fun. I can see its probably "balanced", but its not going to be fun for me nor my playgroup. My friends are more casual and have a lower experience/skill than I do. To them, it'll be hard to utilize the effect. For me, its just wayyyyy too much visual planning and stress from being one-shot. No thanks. It won't be casual flying either.

I've never liked the R3 turret ships from the start and I don't intend to.

I think a big part of the meta shift was specifically the ACD. See, the cloak mechanic is really good as is. Decloak gives you repositioning advantages much like barrel roll and boost, only you can also barrel roll/boost. While cloaked you have extra defense die, plus you can still take normal actions to increase your defense. It's like a better Soontir, and it's not like he wasn't used before the phantom came out.

Stygium Particle Accelerator gave you increased defense while cloaking and decloaking, but it did mean that you could only decloak and get the positional advantage every other turn.

ACD on the other hand, gave you action economy of free cloaking, allowing you to always get the positional advantage, while also giving you the extra defense die from cloak. Movement tricks are already so much better on high PS ships, that giving it extra defense based on PS as well is in my view the mistake. I would have preferred the ACD to give you a free recloak in the end phase (and be 2 points), to give lower PS a chance because they will rarely, if ever, be able to draw a bead on the Phantom. It also kills the exponential relationship ACD has with PS. If I was to pick a 'problem' with the current meta, it'd be that.

Rock = Fat Falcon

Paper= Swarm

Scissor= Phantom

I was looking at building a list to combat the more prevalent rock and scissor build and I came up with this theorycraft:

Nera + Deadeye + Flechette x2

Roark + Ion turret

Bandit + Ion pulse missile x3

-Nera and Roark work against phantoms

-Bandits work to ion falcons off the board

-5 ship swarm working on control to beat up on another swarm

C3-P0 AND DASH ARE OP!!!!!!! DOOM I FORESEE!!! DOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm just being the voice for all the trolls out there so the thread doesn't get hijacked. You're welcome.

we currently do have a Rock<Paper<Scissors meta,

In that case you'll be able to tell me what Rock, Paper and Scissors are, yes? Because the supposed Paper (TIE fighter swarm) doesn't get Scissored by the TIE phantom unless there's a sizable skill gap or the TIE swarmer has his head so throughly buried in Wave 3 backwards that he can't fathom breaking formation, and it doesn't have a guaranteed chance of Rocking the Falcon.

A sufficiently mobile Falcon can avoid the TIE swarm and slowly pick them off: who wins here comes almost completely down to one player's skill at Falcon evasion and one player's skill at TIE swarming. If the Falcon manages to dodge enough TIE shots then the numbers are in his favour, if the TIEs keep the Falcon in arc for long enough then they get the statistical upper hand.

Alright guys, lets invent Spock!!! ST FTW!!!!

Honestly, I think people are exaggerating the advantages one squad had over another. There is no auto-win. And while certain squads will have a tougher time beating others, that does not mean there is an imbalance. I mean, Interceptors have beaten Falcons before.

The point where I, at least, left off (other than speculating about the affect that Dash Rendar is going to have), is that we currently do have a Rock<Paper<Scissors meta, I don't think we're lacking Lizards and Spocks because of a lack of collective imagination.

No, we don't. Continuing to develop an argument I've made elsewhere, rock-paper-scissors is defined by a fairly short list of properties:

(1) The choices are exclusive (e.g., there's no half-rock, half-paper option).

(2) The choices are exhaustive (e.g., there's no option that isn't rock, paper, or scissors).

(3) The choices have absolute advantages and disadvantages (e.g., there's no chance that rock will ever beat paper).

(I've previously said the choices are limited, but really that falls under "exhaustive". "Absolute

is new, but expresses something I've been trying to describe for a while.)

None of those things are true about X-wing. There are lots of possible hybrids between rock, paper, and scissors, as well as lists that are half-rock, half-lizard or all Spock. And even if you do take a "rock" list against a "paper" list, realistically you're looking at a 40/60 or 30/70 match, not the 100/0 or 0/100 of a true RPS.

And then there's the definitional problem: if you do accept that X-wing's metagame is dominated by a small number of exclusive and well-defined lists, what are those lists? Norsehound and Lagomorphia have wondered the same thing, and it's a critical question for advocates of an RPS model to answer. If you can't answer it in what people are calling the most restricted, most RPS-like metagame we've seen yet in X-wing, then RPS just isn't a very good description.

the three archetypes/variants are:

Phantom + mini-swarm (most typical Whisper VI ACD RC + 5 AP)

Fat Han + 3Z (Han Luke-crew MF-tltle C3PO EU + 3 Tala) (Other variants include adding Biggs + 1Z)

8 Tie Swarm 4 Obs, 4 AP

...The tendency of list counter tends to be:

Phantom beats Tie Swarm beats Fat Han beats Phantom.

This is not a workable definition. The US Nationals Top 8 looked like this:

#1: Whisper/Soontir Fel/Captain Yorr

#2: Chewbacca/Lando Calrissian

#4: Han Solo/Biggs Darklighter/Tala Squadron Pilot

#4: Howlrunner/6x Obsidian Squadron Pilot

#8: Han Solo/Corran Horn

#8: Han Solo/4x Bandit Squadron Pilot

#8: Han Solo/4x Bandit Squadron Pilot

#8: Bounty Hunter/3x Omicron Group Pilot

Going strictly by Blail Blerg's definition, then, exactly one of those lists (Paul Heaver's Han/Biggs/Tala) is in the RPS mechanic. Expanding it a little bit gives us three Han/Headhunters lists and one swarm list, which still means only half fit into his rubric.

(I won't go over other Nationals events in detail, but they all show approximately the same picture: there's too much variation from the narrow definition, and even a slightly broader definition fails to encompass more than half the field.)

Now you can expand that definition substantially to be more like this:

Phantom > TIE swarm > Falcon > Phantom

But that doesn't really work as a definition either, because the Phantom and Falcon are ships, not lists, and you can't fly either with or against a Whisper/Soontir/Yorr the way you'd fly against a Whisper/5x Academy list. Likewise, Chewie/Lando isn't remotely like Han/4x Bandit, and if you try to treat them the same way you're going to get burned.

And while "TIE swarm" is at least a list archetype, there's still a lot of available diversity: how much overlap is there in how you deal with a Soontir/Howlrunner/4x Academy Pilot list and a 4x Obsidian/4x Academy list?

And just as an example for those who think Wave 5 is just going to reinforce the existing metagame, where do you put a Whisper/Kenkirk squad: is it more like a Phantom list, or more like a Fat Falcon list?

***

What I'm suggesting, if it's not clear, is that in order to make X-wing look like rock-paper-scissors, you have to either make your categories broad but overly vague, or specific but overly narrow (missing most of the lists that placed in major events). And that in turn means that it actually isn't clear at all that X-wing currently reflects an RPS.

As for the staleness of the meta, I really, really, really like this post on Team Covenant.

http://teamcovenant.com/maskedbean/2014/10/03/f-han-fighting-the-meta-rebel-options/

Granted, it is a lot of squad talk, but it is creative thinking about how to fight something, rather than despairing over a ruined game.

And a lot of why this RPS talk is because there is a large focus on singular ships. There is no differentiation of the squads that have a Falcon in the top 8. I blame Major Juggler's tracking of ship usage, which is frankly a terrible way to analyze the meta.

We discussed this briefly when recording the show last night...

Here is what it boils down to... Rebels added some interesting toys but nothing that will shift the Rock -> Paper -> Scissors we currently reside in. Sure, 15 point A-Wing might replace Z-95s in some builds, but we won't see a Lizard or Spock out of them.

That leaves Wave 5... which is more of the same. So if Rock is the Fat Falcon lists, then the big D and the PTL Dash are more of the same. Sure, they wear different cloths, but when you boil it down to basics, they both are Fat Turreted ships. Swarms still burn them down like there is no tomorrow and they still melt Phantom builds.

We will not see a big shift in the meta until Wave 6 and Scum hits. Then, all bets are off!

As for the idea of a RPSLS

Lizard: Missile spam (Z or A or Bomber missile swarm)

Spock: Something that beats both a Fat Han and Phantom list. Maybe a Nera + HLC B's or Wave 6 ship combo.

Nothing is absolute, as Vorpal suggests, but the idea is everything has a counter (or the very least a mechanism/build that can nerf it). This elusive Spock build is what is missing from the meta.

Maybe a breakdown of all the mechanisms that are in play, like High PS, stress, ion, turrets, swarm, blocking, payload, boosting and such could yeild some insight.

we currently do have a Rock<Paper<Scissors meta,

In that case you'll be able to tell me what Rock, Paper and Scissors are, yes? Because the supposed Paper (TIE fighter swarm) doesn't get Scissored by the TIE phantom unless there's a sizable skill gap or the TIE swarmer has his head so throughly buried in Wave 3 backwards that he can't fathom breaking formation, and it doesn't have a guaranteed chance of Rocking the Falcon.

A sufficiently mobile Falcon can avoid the TIE swarm and slowly pick them off: who wins here comes almost completely down to one player's skill at Falcon evasion and one player's skill at TIE swarming. If the Falcon manages to dodge enough TIE shots then the numbers are in his favour, if the TIEs keep the Falcon in arc for long enough then they get the statistical upper hand.

All well and good, but you seem to equate having an advantage with being guaranteed a win. I don't think most people are suggesting that TIE Swarm beats Falcon every single time, but that doesn't change the fact that it undeniably has a huge advantage over it no matter what the variance in skill levels. RPS is the closest analogy to describe the meta; don't take everything so literally. I'm certain everyone understands that in a game of dice nothing beats anything every single time.

Alright guys, lets invent Spock!!! ST FTW!!!!

This is my spock:

- Purposely lose initiative

- Proper placement of asteroids in a *grid like* pattern with a range of 1.5 to 2 (made easier by losing initiative).

Boba Fett

- Engine upgrade

- Outmanoeuver

- *Other upgrades depend on squad*

(The rest of the squad varies; I'm still ironing it. I usually end with a 3 ship squad)

So far, I've had 5 out of 5 victories with different variants of this template, with some close calls and others where I obliterated the opposition. It has faced falcons, swarms and specialized pilots. Like I said in the other thread before it was locked, however, finding an experienced fat-han or phantom fliers is problematic in my area, but I have developped tactics to really mess with those builds.

Is anyone else finding these constant Falcon/Phantom threads rather tedious?

Yes, they are good ships that are popular now, but so what? Sure I'm aware of the meta, but at the end of the day I fly the list I want to fly, meta be damned! I honestly don't care what my opponent brings, I'm just gonna fly my list the best way I can. If they play a meta-ish list, I at least know how it flies pretty well and I know how my squadron flies VERY well.

I have a strong feeling that the VAST majority of players don't even play at a level where the meta even really matters. I don't even know what I'm trying to say really other than, "Can we just stop talking about the same two ships all the time and make the forums fun again?"

why do phantom lists have to mean PS bid? I think the thing that bugs me the most is on these forums people tend to just follow to tourney scene and let them dictate the meta. A phantom list isn't just echo or whisper with acd and vi, sigmas with rec spec and spa gave imperials they're x wing at 30 pts, with multiple token enhancements. fat Han isn't the end all of turrets, a chewie and lando topped the Hans at nationals. The descriptions of the rock paper scissors cuts out an awful lot of successful and strong builds. Biggs walks whatever still can work, vessory and brath have builds. Ethan swarms, howlrunner and friends, how is patrol leader and miniswarm going to be listed? The meta a varied if the players want it to be, not because the game forces it. #endrant

"I'm certain everyone understands that in a game of dice nothing beats anything every single time."

I think several posters in this thread believe exactly that. When you use the inaccurate RPS language to describe the meta it discourages a lot of people.

Wave 5 is IMO going to reinforce the current metagame. It will bring a little more diversity in turret ships and give the imperials a Falcon equivalent, but it's really just going to be a case of "which of your 3 turret ships do you want to spend 50+ points on". The only way I can see it making much of an impact is if adding even more turrets finally kills off the ACD phantom and indirectly opens up the metagame again.

This is guaranteed to happen to an extent. The uncertainty will be in how big of an impact it will be. The counter to HLC Dash will be even more specific than existing Phantom counters: you will want PS10+ (or 9+ with initiative) post-dial reveal movement. PS10+ Engine Upgrade, in particular, is going to be a very good counter to Dash.

I am really against 4 dice 360 Dash. That doesn't sound fun. Sorry. Just not fun. Not casual. Not flying.

Have you actually played against HLC Dash, or are you just assuming that the sky is falling? Remember that there isn't all that much difference between HLC and Falcon + gunner + predator/marksmanship, and getting the HLC turret means giving up gunner. The HLC hits you hard with one attack and punishes low-agility ships like b-wings and decimators, the Falcon gets the same end result by making you spend all of your defensive tokens and then hitting you again against unmodified dice.

3 dice with Gunner is more reliable, especially against high agility targets. But 4 dice HLC, especially with TL+F, is going to do more overall average damage, especially against lower agility targets.