THE answer to the Phantom and Falcon...

By Gather, in X-Wing

.. in a tournament setting at least.

Wave 4 and a few recent cards have exaggerated the Rock, Scissors, Paper effect on how some lists will dominate other lists and in turn have a bad match-up against others. So tournament games become less about strategy and tactics and more about choosing the right Rock, Scissor, or Paper.

So you have an extremely powerful specialty ship like the Phantom who gets hard-countered by a Falcon, which can be hard-countered by a swarm, etc. Wave 5 and future waves won't help this, but only provide (possibly) more of these specialty ships.

What's the answer?

The answer isn't to to ban or tone down these specialty ships, because then it really starts to dilute the game. The answer is to officially make Multi-lists and/or Partial Lists with Reserves part of the tournament rules. The last Vassal Galactic Cup did multi-lists with resounding success and added an extra layer of strategy into the mix.

Another case study is the game Warmachine, where a lot of lists have hard-counters. Their tournaments have moved to 2 and even 3 list formats quite some time ago.

I like the idea of Partial Lists with Reserves, where you plan say a 70 pt. list, and when you see what other Partial List are up against you secretly choose the remaining 30pts. of reserves.

What are your thoughts?

.. in a tournament setting at least.

Wave 4 and a few recent cards have exaggerated the Rock, Scissors, Paper effect on how some lists will dominate other lists and in turn have a bad match-up against others. So tournament games become less about strategy and tactics and more about choosing the right Rock, Scissor, or Paper.

So you have an extremely powerful specialty ship like the Phantom who gets hard-countered by a Falcon, which can be hard-countered by a swarm, etc. Wave 5 and future waves won't help this, but only provide (possibly) more of these specialty ships.

What's the answer?

The answer isn't to to ban or tone down these specialty ships, because then it really starts to dilute the game. The answer is to officially make Multi-lists and/or Partial Lists with Reserves part of the tournament rules. The last Vassal Galactic Cup did multi-lists with resounding success and added an extra layer of strategy into the mix.

Another case study is the game Warmachine, where a lot of lists have hard-counters. Their tournaments have moved to 2 and even 3 list formats quite some time ago.

I like the idea of Partial Lists with Reserves, where you plan say a 70 pt. list, and when you see what other Partial List are up against you secretly choose the remaining 30pts. of reserves.

What are your thoughts?

I think it's a great idea, but I'm not sure they'll ever do it at "official" tournaments.

Kind of related: I do something similar when I play with my friends, since I'm the one who provides the game. I let my friends pick whatever they want after seeing what I've picked, since I do a lot more theorycrafting and just plain thinking about this game than they do. In fact, I sometimes even mention things that work particularly well against me, such as placing asteroids a certain way or having a particularly high PS ship, etc. I love the challenge, and I learn a lot more from the games that way.

Different lists have different strengths for sure but a Falcon List will not always beat a Phantom list. A swarm will not always beat a Falcon list. When you use a list you need to understand it's weaknesses and strengths and play in a way that will give you the best chance against any list. Strategy is as important as list building and flying is more important than that. Tournaments are long processes as it is, and if you try to let people change things between rounds it will only make them longer. Rounds are already too short for some builds to be competitive right now, and if you change that it will make people either shorten rounds or have all day and all night tournaments. Unless your tournament scene is much smaller than mine I don't see it being workable.

Edited by Ryther

The game is fine and doesn't need that. While I'm not against the principle of it, the fact is that there's still quite a bit of list variety out there. Look at the W4 regional results...

Phantom + Mini Swarm = 20%

Phantom + else = 7%

TIE Swarm 6%

Large Base Imps = 7.5%

Dual YT = 4%

YT + stuff = 32%

Rebel "swarm" = 10%

4 Rebels = 11%

3 Elite Rebels = .5%

So obviously Phantom + Mini Swarm jumps out as a huge % of the pool, half of the imperials are running with some sort of Phantom... But lets look at W3 results to see if anything else jumps out as a major %...

Wave 3 results:

TIE SWARM 32%

Large Base Imps 15%

Dual YT 5.5%

YT + Stuff 11%

Rebel "swarm" 3%

4 Rebels 23.5%

3 Elite Rebels 3%

So... Wave 4, with the introduction of the Phantom and Z95 and stuff, has actually diversified the field!?!? Go figure, when people have more ships to choose from, there will be more types of lists being played. While some might have "hard counters," you can always build to shore up against those... Your Phantom dies easily to turrets? Add some TIEs as cannon fodder... your YT getting eaten by TIEs... add some Z95s to run interference... Or... you could go the other way... add some B wings to eat those TIEs and make them rue leaving them alone... Adding a side pot will minimize the build creativity. You will find lots of Assault missiles and cluster missiles sitting on the side, waiting to be used if they come across TIEs or YTs... And you'll find the gamble of pilot skill will be completely different. No need to fix what isn't broken.

PS. A 30 point pool wouldn't "fix" the rock paper sissor thing... you'll still have YT > Phantom > TIE > YT since the core of the list won't change.

No, THE answer is and always will be, 42.

The game is fine and doesn't need that. While I'm not against the principle of it, the fact is that there's still quite a bit of list variety out there. Look at the W4 regional results...

Phantom + Mini Swarm = 20%

Phantom + else = 7%

TIE Swarm 6%

Large Base Imps = 7.5%

Dual YT = 4%

YT + stuff = 32%

Rebel "swarm" = 10%

4 Rebels = 11%

3 Elite Rebels = .5%

So obviously Phantom + Mini Swarm jumps out as a huge % of the pool, half of the imperials are running with some sort of Phantom... But lets look at W3 results to see if anything else jumps out as a major %...

Wave 3 results:

TIE SWARM 32%

Large Base Imps 15%

Dual YT 5.5%

YT + Stuff 11%

Rebel "swarm" 3%

4 Rebels 23.5%

3 Elite Rebels 3%

So... Wave 4, with the introduction of the Phantom and Z95 and stuff, has actually diversified the field!?!? Go figure, when people have more ships to choose from, there will be more types of lists being played. While some might have "hard counters," you can always build to shore up against those... Your Phantom dies easily to turrets? Add some TIEs as cannon fodder... your YT getting eaten by TIEs... add some Z95s to run interference... Or... you could go the other way... add some B wings to eat those TIEs and make them rue leaving them alone... Adding a side pot will minimize the build creativity. You will find lots of Assault missiles and cluster missiles sitting on the side, waiting to be used if they come across TIEs or YTs... And you'll find the gamble of pilot skill will be completely different. No need to fix what isn't broken.

PS. A 30 point pool wouldn't "fix" the rock paper sissor thing... you'll still have YT > Phantom > TIE > YT since the core of the list won't change.

Those statistics only show what's popular, they don't have any say on what's happening in individual games. I don't see how that invalidates a Rock, Scissors, Paper effect.

In the last bit you seem to be disagreeing and agreeing that a reserve would help things. You say a flexible 30pts. wouldn't fix the Rock, Scissors, Paper effect, but making small adjustments to your list would (i.e. add in a few tie fighters or z-95s). Can you enlighten me here?

Different lists have different strengths for sure but a Falcon List will not always beat a Phantom list. A swarm will not always beat a Falcon list. When you use a list you need to understand it's weaknesses and strengths and play in a way that will give you the best chance against any list. Strategy is as important as list building and flying is more important than that. Tournaments are long processes as it is, and if you try to let people change things between rounds it will only make them longer. Rounds are already too short for some builds to be competitive right now, and if you change that it will make people either shorten rounds or have all day and all night tournaments. Unless your tournament scene is much smaller than mine I don't see it being workable.

I agree a reserves setup could take up more time. There could be ways of speeding it up though. A multi-list format however would add very little time and is less fiddly.

Not to speak that he is focusing on what reinforces his point.

Tie swarm were 32%, and now YT's are 32%, jumping a whole lot 21% for rebels (what you gain, you lose it in diversity ^^).

4 rebs were 23.5% and now are 11% (but 4 rebel lists are actually diverse between them, from X's, to B's etc... counting them together is ... tricky at best, oppossed to most YT builds).

Phantom lists are now 27%, but a 20% whole lot is only phantom plus swarm.

And those stats don't even have interceptor lists. ¿?

If i wasn't lazy right now, i would even check out the numbers, because they seem off.

Edited by DreadStar

Or just build a versatile squad rather than try to outwit everyone by hardcountering with a hardcounterable hardcounter. They do win.

The game is fine and doesn't need that. While I'm not against the principle of it, the fact is that there's still quite a bit of list variety out there. Look at the W4 regional results...

Phantom + Mini Swarm = 20%

Phantom + else = 7%

TIE Swarm 6%

Large Base Imps = 7.5%

Dual YT = 4%

YT + stuff = 32%

Rebel "swarm" = 10%

4 Rebels = 11%

3 Elite Rebels = .5%

So obviously Phantom + Mini Swarm jumps out as a huge % of the pool, half of the imperials are running with some sort of Phantom... But lets look at W3 results to see if anything else jumps out as a major %...

Wave 3 results:

TIE SWARM 32%

Large Base Imps 15%

Dual YT 5.5%

YT + Stuff 11%

Rebel "swarm" 3%

4 Rebels 23.5%

3 Elite Rebels 3%

So... Wave 4, with the introduction of the Phantom and Z95 and stuff, has actually diversified the field!?!? Go figure, when people have more ships to choose from, there will be more types of lists being played. While some might have "hard counters," you can always build to shore up against those... Your Phantom dies easily to turrets? Add some TIEs as cannon fodder... your YT getting eaten by TIEs... add some Z95s to run interference... Or... you could go the other way... add some B wings to eat those TIEs and make them rue leaving them alone... Adding a side pot will minimize the build creativity. You will find lots of Assault missiles and cluster missiles sitting on the side, waiting to be used if they come across TIEs or YTs... And you'll find the gamble of pilot skill will be completely different. No need to fix what isn't broken.

PS. A 30 point pool wouldn't "fix" the rock paper sissor thing... you'll still have YT > Phantom > TIE > YT since the core of the list won't change.

Those statistics only show what's popular, they don't have any say on what's happening in individual games. I don't see how that invalidates a Rock, Scissors, Paper effect.

In the last bit you seem to be disagreeing and agreeing that a reserve would help things. You say a flexible 30pts. wouldn't fix the Rock, Scissors, Paper effect, but making small adjustments to your list would (i.e. add in a few tie fighters or z-95s). Can you enlighten me here?

The core part of the list, YT-1300 (42+ pts), Echo/Whisper (34+ pts), TIE Swarm (lots of 12pt ties)... None of that will be changing with 30 points flexible. All you'll be able to do is decide "oh, Chewy is going to be going against a TIE swarm... I could make use of Assault Missiles, and since I get to choose 5 points to fill out my list, I'd rather put AM on 2 Z95 instead of running with 3 Z95"

So, the core YT-1300 build won't be changing. Really the only thing that can change with 30 points is the load out, or the type of support ship. You could switch out a Gold w/ R3A2 + ICT for Roark w/ ICT if you see you're going against an ACD phantom... but that's all you can do really.

And yes, those are statistics for what's popular... aka, what people are playing. If you want to go look at the top 8 results, then be my guest, they mimic that quite a bit, but they're not as easy to show.

The YT + Stuff has basically broken into two categories now... YT + 2 3attack escorts, and YT + 3-4 Z95s. The sum of 4+5 rebel lists used to be 26% and is now 21%, but with much more variety within the list. I believe the interceptors are grouped into other lists... Large base + stuff and TIEs primarily.

Though if you wanted to, we could slice the data another way and I'm sure we could come up and say that TIE fighters are everywhere - they're included in 80% of the imperial lists! But no one seems to complain about that.

And as been discussed before, there's always an element of shiny, that will fade, reducing the number of phantoms. And as the number of phantoms fade, so will the number of YTs, though I'm of the opinion that has more to do with C-3PO than it does phantoms. That crew card coupled with the MF title forces you to target the YT first, which leave the escorts free to kill you, meaning that you'll get multiple turns at full fire power since the YT can survive a beating.

So a standardized multi-list tournament format would be a good thing, correct?

It would help even out the Rocks, Scissors, Paper effect, right?

Would there be any negatives or reasons not to do it?

With each wave, there have always been a set of "list archetypes" that, in general, hold a winning share in that meta. Each list might vary based on player preference, but those archetypes have changed a little with each wave. The key to winning a tournament is building a list that is versatile, durable, and that you understand and can execute will. All of that comes with practice. If you discover that your Wave 3 XXBB list is losing to Phantoms, you have 2 options: change your list, or change your strategy against the list that is causing you trouble.

You should go to a tournament with a PREPARED AND PRACTICED strategy for EACH AND EVERY popular list archetype, because particularly at a large tournament, you have a chance to play against them. This strategy may will drastically change your approach to each round of the tournament with each list you play. And as new cards are released, your strategy against a proven archetype may have to change as its effective counter may become obsolete.

Another important thing to note is, we are still young in Wave 4. I would not say the meta has fully matured yet. For example, the fact that it dropped in the middle of a major tournament season meant that many were unprepared for Phantoms, and C3PO only comes with the Tantive IV. After Regionals and now having had several months to practice, we will likely see a more representative showing at GenCon.

And then Wave 5 will come, and then there will be drastically fewer hypermobile ships on the table, due to the presence of more turrets and stressing upgrades.

The way you avoid your Paper being Scissored is don't take paper. Take a combination of Rock, Paper and Scissors, or at least two of them. Make the different parts back each other up.

With each wave, there have always been a set of "list archetypes" that, in general, hold a winning share in that meta. Each list might vary based on player preference, but those archetypes have changed a little with each wave. The key to winning a tournament is building a list that is versatile, durable, and that you understand and can execute will. All of that comes with practice. If you discover that your Wave 3 XXBB list is losing to Phantoms, you have 2 options: change your list, or change your strategy against the list that is causing you trouble.

You should go to a tournament with a PREPARED AND PRACTICED strategy for EACH AND EVERY popular list archetype, because particularly at a large tournament, you have a chance to play against them. This strategy may will drastically change your approach to each round of the tournament with each list you play. And as new cards are released, your strategy against a proven archetype may have to change as its effective counter may become obsolete.

Another important thing to note is, we are still young in Wave 4. I would not say the meta has fully matured yet. For example, the fact that it dropped in the middle of a major tournament season meant that many were unprepared for Phantoms, and C3PO only comes with the Tantive IV. After Regionals and now having had several months to practice, we will likely see a more representative showing at GenCon.

And then Wave 5 will come, and then there will be drastically fewer hypermobile ships on the table, due to the presence of more turrets and stressing upgrades.

I guess my point is a way of reducing this whole Rock, Scissors, Paper aspect that you are detailing here.

The way you avoid your Paper being Scissored is don't take paper. Take a combination of Rock, Paper and Scissors, or at least two of them. Make the different parts back each other up.

So are we talking a 300pt list? Yeah that would probably win. Or a list with a Phantom and a YT in it? ;P

In seriousness though, what is this mythical golden all-comers list and why are the Rock, Scissors, Paper lists so prevalent in regional results instead of these all-comers lists? List popularity could be a big chunk of this I suppose.

Those statistics only show what's popular, they don't have any say on what's happening in individual games. I don't see how that invalidates a Rock, Scissors, Paper effect.

Those statistics only include squads that make Final Cut or Top Third, and are weighted according to: attendance * squad placement.

So the numbers do not reflect what is popular. It reflects what is winning at Regionals, or at least ranking very well. What is popular would require looking at 100% of the squads that were brought. I'm emailing with FFG to try and get everything at GenCon.

Not to speak that he is focusing on what reinforces his point.

Tie swarm were 32%, and now YT's are 32%, jumping a whole lot 21% for rebels (what you gain, you lose it in diversity ^^).

4 rebs were 23.5% and now are 11% (but 4 rebel lists are actually diverse between them, from X's, to B's etc... counting them together is ... tricky at best, oppossed to most YT builds).

Phantom lists are now 27%, but a 20% whole lot is only phantom plus swarm.

And those stats don't even have interceptor lists. ¿?

If i wasn't lazy right now, i would even check out the numbers, because they seem off.

The stats include 100% of all lists that were reported in Final Cut + Top Third, including Interceptor lists. Interceptor lists could qualify as either a TIE Swarm (2x alphas mixed into 6 TIES, for example), or 3 TIE archetype, 4-5 TIE archetype.

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/105107-2014-regionals-results/#entry1066846

Click on spoiler tabs:

Wave 4 Tournament Statistics / Weighting method #2

There you will see the exact breakdown for all of the different ship compositions that make up each archetype. You can do the same thing for wave 3 meta Regionals.

For a direct comparison between wave 3 and wave 4 Regionals, click the spoiler tab on the bottom:

Key statistics vs different meta

Edited by MajorJuggler

Those statistics only show what's popular, they don't have any say on what's happening in individual games. I don't see how that invalidates a Rock, Scissors, Paper effect.

Those statistics only include squads that make Final Cut or Top Third, and are weighted according to: attendance * squad placement.

So the numbers do not reflect what is popular. It reflects what is winning at Regionals, or at least ranking very well. What is popular would require looking at 100% of the squads that were brought. I'm emailing with FFG to try and get everything at GenCon.

Thanks for the clarity on those numbers. Regardless, they don't show how much of a Rock, Scissors, Paper effect there is. For instance, it would be interesting to see how often a Han Solo list wins against an elite Phantom list, or how often an elite Phantom list wins against non-turret lists, etc.

With each wave, there have always been a set of "list archetypes" that, in general, hold a winning share in that meta. Each list might vary based on player preference, but those archetypes have changed a little with each wave. The key to winning a tournament is building a list that is versatile, durable, and that you understand and can execute will. All of that comes with practice. If you discover that your Wave 3 XXBB list is losing to Phantoms, you have 2 options: change your list, or change your strategy against the list that is causing you trouble.

You should go to a tournament with a PREPARED AND PRACTICED strategy for EACH AND EVERY popular list archetype, because particularly at a large tournament, you have a chance to play against them. This strategy may will drastically change your approach to each round of the tournament with each list you play. And as new cards are released, your strategy against a proven archetype may have to change as its effective counter may become obsolete.

Another important thing to note is, we are still young in Wave 4. I would not say the meta has fully matured yet. For example, the fact that it dropped in the middle of a major tournament season meant that many were unprepared for Phantoms, and C3PO only comes with the Tantive IV. After Regionals and now having had several months to practice, we will likely see a more representative showing at GenCon.

And then Wave 5 will come, and then there will be drastically fewer hypermobile ships on the table, due to the presence of more turrets and stressing upgrades.

I guess my point is a way of reducing this whole Rock, Scissors, Paper aspect that you are detailing here.

That's the point, though. You reduce list asymmetry by developing a strategy for your list that can counter its weaknesses. Meaning that the solution already exists.

MajorJuggler, well that was my point and what i wanted to check out so thank you. Some type of lists that are actually quite variable (3 reb ships, large base ships, swarm, 4 reb ships, etc etc etc) are convoluted in small categories, which is fine but is the main reason why i saw the stats he posted as off with the line of reasoning he followed (diversity).

So yes, i am fine with the stats, If you don't take them out of context to try to build a point about how diversity has been increased, when in fact, Phantom + Miniswarm and Fat YT's are the less variable and most homogeneic builds in that list, and are the predominant ones there by far.

If we talk about getting more diversity because 4 reb ships (all of its kinds) lost a 20%, but another 20% was gained to Fat YT's (Chewbie or Han, and changes on EPTs most part of the time), or Tie swarm (taking a lot of builds into account, to compare it to Phantom + Miniswarm, which is basically a contest between echo, whisper, and crew slots).

And let me be clear, i am not discussing or pointing them as being broken, but that what is played right now, is not very diverse when almost a 60% of the builds, are YT's or Phantom builds.

Cheers, and continue with the awesome work, i just dislike statistics taken out of their context ^^

Edited by DreadStar

Thanks for the clarity on those numbers. Regardless, they don't show how much of a Rock, Scissors, Paper effect there is. For instance, it would be interesting to see how often a Han Solo list wins against an elite Phantom list, or how often an elite Phantom list wins against non-turret lists, etc.

Yeah, that's a lot harder to get because you would need the records of all games throughout the tournament. For the last few weeks of Regionals I started getting the elimination brackets though, so you can check individual tournament results and see how things played out.

Cheers, and continue with the awesome work, i just dislike statistics taken out of their context ^^

Absolutely! Also, correlation does not imply causation. But sometimes there is a legitimate story in the statistics.

Also, in regard to the OP's original question:

  • 8x TIE Fighters
  • 8x Z-95s

Both can do extremely well against any list. More ships = exponentially better. 8 of anything will wear down a Falcon pretty quick, and 8 anything will block Phantom decloak lanes very effectively as well. The Z'95s are actually even better against Falcon than the TIEs, assuming the Falcon has gunner/Luke.

SuperSwarm (8 ship) is a thing. It won at French Nationals. We'll see if anyone brings it and does well at GenCon this week!

I really really dislike the change to ROCK PAPER SCISSORS... we used to have LIZARD AND SPOCK around but they seem to be dropping quickly. I would love to see more variety and viable lists and seeing a certain 3 lists taking over 60% with little variety is not a good thing in my opinion.

Honestly I think the game is fine the way it is. That being said I love the 2 list variant as was mentioned by the OP regarding the recent Galactic Cup Vassal event. I think games like Warmachine have shown it to be a great addition to the tournament scene. I know that we are having a local event next month that features the 2 list format and a lot of our player base is very excited about it.

I don't particularly like the idea of a "sideboard" or reservers as I think it is difficult to implement given the points nature of the game.

Infinity uses the same system regarding lists. But truth be spoken, one of the reasons is also because of the missions. I don't know if warmachine does this for missions, or to have different match ups.