It is interesting that he brings up last year's final game. There were luck swings on both sides, so I think it balanced out. That said, the point where Paul won was pretty clear to me. And it wasn't a die roll. It was a barrel roll that should've been another action.

Well, obviously the closer two players are in skill the more important luck becomes to the outcome of a match. Because of that, skill becomes even more important, because since luck is going to have such a huge impact, it becomes all the more important to stack the rolls in your favor in any way you can. If the game comes down to who flips heads first on a coin toss, each decision allowing for an additional coin toss becomes monumental, because you never know which one is going to end the game.

I once blanked on defense dice with a cloaked Phantom at range three through an asteroid. Sometimes bad things happen, especially when you're flying against Falcons. Hilarity ensued though and dice were shamed.

Obviously the outcome of a game comes down to:

Strength of List 25%

Movement/Placement (what most people would call 'skill') 50%

Dice Rolls 25%

In one sense, it was my fault for getting shot at, but I willingly took the chance because I figured, statistically, I could withstand 6 dice thrown at Soontir.

What did I gain from putting Soontir in danger? I more than likely would have taken Echo out and been in a perfect position to take on his swarm.

It's give and take.

I can agree with that breakdown for the most part. As I've said a few times, I think (and I think most people agree) dice luck is obviously a fairly major point of the game. I also think the more closely matched the rest of the game is, the more important dice become. Though, as I mentioned, the corollary to that is the more important luck is in a given game, the more important skill becomes, since one mistake either way can suddenly end the game.

I'm surprised nobody's brought up sportsmanship yet. I frequently roll bad dice, and it gets pretty irritating. I'll huff and puff to myself, but you know what I don't say? "You got lucky. I deserved to win." This is still a game about skill, and blaming the dice is a poor way of trying to take away your opponent's victory.

If you can warn the player before the move and be right most of the time then I would sway back to the skill position but saying it after the fact really doesn't advance the argument.

Well first off, you can. It's not hard to look at the board and decide what the best possible move is. The fact that you don't know for sure what the other guy will do, doesn't change the fact that you can figure out with a fair amount of surety what his best move is, and then what your best move to counter it is.

That really is the difference between a good and great player, how well you can read the board, know the options the other person has, and what you should do with that info.

Perhaps the best move is to run away, perhaps the best move is to k-turn, perhaps you should slow walk and barrel roll...

If someone puts a Tie Interceptor in a spot where it can get shot at with 9 dice, they clearly did something wrong. Because the last thing you want to do with a glass cannon is let it get shot at... Unless doing so let you move other ships into even better positions and the whole thing was on the lines of a gambit.

The fact that so many of us say he did something wrong is not just hindsight, it's that we know he either did something wrong, or was quite simply out played. Although taking advantage of someone's mistake is a huge part of what we call skill.

Again going back to probabilities, it's quite simple to show that the probability of a Tie Interceptor getting killed goes up each attack made against it in a round...

Now lets assume he had an evade, because if he didn't that means he made yet another mistake in that situation.

The first 3 dice have a 39.1% chance of landing a hit. Most likely he'd have to use his evade there so you now have a 72.2% chance of landing 1 hit and a 39.1% chance of landing 2. So clearly odds are pretty good that a Tie Interceptor is not going to survive 3 X-Wing's all shooting at it. Again this isn't hindsight it's just knowing the odds and knowing that allowing 3 X's to shoot at a single Interceptor most likely means dead interceptor.

It's not even like it was unlucky that the Int died...

I'm surprised nobody's brought up sportsmanship yet. I frequently roll bad dice, and it gets pretty irritating. I'll huff and puff to myself, but you know what I don't say? "You got lucky. I deserved to win." This is still a game about skill, and blaming the dice is a poor way of trying to take away your opponent's victory.

I agree 100%, and I have found much like with MTG when mana screwed; good opponents always acknowledge things like that with a "hey man, no worries the dice just sucked for you today".

The match I won against my dad was an example of his poor sportsmanship. I eliminated everything on his board, he had bad rolls (And some god awful moves too) and he had Vader off in the distance, still fully armed and untouched.

And quit.

And there was an attack wing tournament. After losing, he quit. Except, that's not how the tourney worked.

*Shakes head*

I can't imagine taking losing so hard.

I'm surprised nobody's brought up sportsmanship yet. I frequently roll bad dice, and it gets pretty irritating. I'll huff and puff to myself, but you know what I don't say? "You got lucky. I deserved to win." This is still a game about skill, and blaming the dice is a poor way of trying to take away your opponent's victory.

This is pretty much all that needs to said in response to the OP. I wholeheartedly agree.

"There Is No Such Thing As Luck."

There is only the warrior and his or her reality in any given situation.

The true measure of a warrior is what they will do in these moments.

If you had flown better you wouldn't have had to make the defense rolls in the first place.

But you didn't and don't understand the issue from the previous thread that you are deciding to rehash.

If dice were the primary deciding factor in games of X-wing you'd have no real competitive play for this game. You certainly wouldn't have players being able to consistently perform in events. That just doesn't happen in games that heavily hinge on luck.

People that don't know poker think it's about how lucky you are in regards to the cards you are dealt. And yeah sometimes you can win a hand you shouldn't have or lose one you should have won to a bad beat. But in the end the guy that sits down to a poker table thinking it's all about what cards you are dealt is a guy that's going to lose alot of money at poker.

Sometimes you'll whiff a roll, and maybe it will be a critical one. But in the end, especially over the long term, you aren't going to win many games relying on the dice gods instead of making prudent shots, picking the right maneuvers, and having a solid game plan.

Let's add to this that if the list crumbles because something unfortunate happens to soontir, the list as a whole maybe could be better thought out (or at least recognized as "hey casual list, casual game, stuff happens").

The best example to me that skill matters is still that paul heaver managed to win a large vassal tournament and worlds on the same day. I'm a strong believer in consistency, and I was the only player in my region that managed to top 8 both regionals. Even in situations like this, I always try to think about what more I could've done to help reduce the amount of the game I was leaving to chance. Yes dice can occasionally screw you, but it is a very, very, VERY rare situation where it was completely beyond your control.

This is exactly the point I'm trying to make.

Is it?

Having to roll 9 defense dice in a single round against a ship that is designed to arc dodge certainly doesn't showcase piloting skill.

To play devils advocate and in no way reflect on Nataris, this is the slippery slope that keeps bringing me back to the "it's a dice game" belief. Taking this sentiment to its conclusion one can say that the player failed to anticipate the opponent's move, failed to read their mind. Then it can go as far as the player should have shook the dice three times before tossing the dice instead of two or four times (five is RIGHT OUT!!!)

Just saying that the player should have done something else seems to be a classic case of hindsight being 20/20. If you can warn the player before the move and be right most of the time then I would sway back to the skill position but saying it after the fact really doesn't advance the argument.

This is arguing Chess is luck based. Anticipating your opponent is skill. Sure, it's easy to see in hindsight where you lost, but the skill is seeing it the moment it happens and taking advantage of it.

You have something to say?

Of course not. Your posts do a fine job of speaking for themselves, so I think we all know exactly what your point is.

InvestFDC,

Thank you for making it clear you weren't personally attacking. I didn't take offense. Different opinions is what makes this world turn.

In response to your post, VanorDM already responded pretty much exactly how I would have answered.

It was only the 2nd round of combat. Which means it is much easier to predict an opponents movement. The skill in this game is in fact predicting where your opponent will be. And if you're in a position where you can't predict then you need to be aware that you're using a highly mobile ship and you should exit the fight and come back around. Squints are flankers. If they don't have a clear shot while being outside arcs then they should be playing highly defensively.

Which I THINK he wasn't because he said he was trying to finish off the phantom at all cost.

And again, using a ship that is built on mobility means he should have had an option that gets him a out of fire arcs. Boost and barrel rolling help tremendously. Also keep in mind he even said he had the positional advantage. Which he didn't take advantage of.

I by no means am calling him a bad player. But certain ships should not be rolling 9 green dice in a round. Ints and phantoms especially. They simply cannot afford to take shots like that. And in round 2? It doesn't make sense. It would be different say combat round 4 where all ships are all over the place. But round 2 against a swarm? No way.

..but I willingly took the chance because I figured, statistically, I could withstand 6 dice thrown at Soontir.

What did I gain from putting Soontir in danger? I more than likely would have taken Echo out and been in a perfect position to take on his swarm.

And this, my friend, is where your skill failed you. Not the dice gods. You chose to take a very high risk. You chose to take 6 red dice your way on a ship with 3 hull that is very fragile. You chose to take a flanking ship and throw him in harms way. You chose wrong. It is that simple.

You cannot use a high risk/reward situation as your evidence that its all about dice. You made a risky decision and it back fired. Except it. Eat it. Learn from it.

what i saw as i read this thread

Popcorn! I need more popcorn!

How has this become an eight page thread?

Edit: Oh wait I see. About page three Ribann said he would stop posting and then didn't.

Everyone slept on it then came back for more.

You ma'am, fail at understand the most basic concepts and I literally cannot help you.

You may want to consider hiring a proofreader before preaching about language. Insofar as books are concerned, might I recommend Trolling For Dummies? Unless you were purposefully trying to make yourself out to be the forum clown, you've done a terrible job at rustling our jimmies.

And this, my friend, is where your skill failed you. Not the dice gods. You chose to take a very high risk. You chose to take 6 red dice your way on a ship with 3 hull that is very fragile. You chose to take a flanking ship and throw him in harms way. You chose wrong. It is that simple.You cannot use a high risk/reward situation as your evidence that its all about dice. You made a risky decision and it back fired. Except it. Eat it. Learn from it.

First of all, I'm not your friend. Second of all, you are completely full of crap. Sometimes you actually don't know if you are outside of range 3 or not. I knew I was range 3 of Echo. His academy clipped me at range 3 through an asteroid.You ma'am, fail at understand the most basic concepts and I literally cannot help you.And it isn't "except it"; it is "accept it". Please, for the love of everything sane, read a book on how not to be a complete fool.

Considering I was trying to have a cordial discussion with you, I can see why everyone thinks you're a fkn dueche bag..

You need anger management help..

Don't get pissed off because you're a lousy player and an even worse communicator socially. Perhaps if you got off Skype once in awhile and met people face to face you wouldn't have this 12 year old internet tough guy persona..

Cause you would get dropped like a sack of potatoes if you acted like this in real life.

Congrats on winning the tool of the forums award. Mom must be proud.

You ma'am, fail at understand the most basic concepts and I literally cannot help you.

You may want to consider hiring a proof reader before preaching about language. Insofar as books are concerned, might I recommend Trolling For Dummies? Unless you were purposefully trying to make yourself out to be the forum clown, you've done a terrible job at rustling our jimmies.

Edit: Removed the previous unrustled jimmies picture because the creator had made a spelling mistake and it was annoying me.

InvestFDC,

Thank you for making it clear you weren't personally attacking. I didn't take offense. Different opinions is what makes this world turn.

In response to your post, VanorDM already responded pretty much exactly how I would have answered.

It was only the 2nd round of combat. Which means it is much easier to predict an opponents movement. The skill in this game is in fact predicting where your opponent will be. And if you're in a position where you can't predict then you need to be aware that you're using a highly mobile ship and you should exit the fight and come back around. Squints are flankers. If they don't have a clear shot while being outside arcs then they should be playing highly defensively.

Which I THINK he wasn't because he said he was trying to finish off the phantom at all cost.

If the skill is predicting where your opponent will be then how do you apply the skill against someone you do not know? So many different playing styles and opinions and such that wouldn't predicting where your opponent will be just be another case of luck? And suppose you guess correctly 5 out of 6 times and miss every time? And the 1 out of 6 times the opponent guesses correctly where you will go and gets all hits while you whiff the greens? This is a sticking point.

I get the probabilities part - I try to fly a squad that fields a lot of red dice to offset my lack of experience and lack of ability to practice. I think we've all been one-shot at range 3 through an asteroid enough to identify with the OP. As I have said, I go back and forth on the concept and after this exchange I am rethinking the skill camp but it is a long trek back

If you can warn the player before the move and be right most of the time then I would sway back to the skill position but saying it after the fact really doesn't advance the argument.

Well first off, you can. It's not hard to look at the board and decide what the best possible move is. The fact that you don't know for sure what the other guy will do, doesn't change the fact that you can figure out with a fair amount of surety what his best move is, and then what your best move to counter it is.

That really is the difference between a good and great player, how well you can read the board, know the options the other person has, and what you should do with that info.

Perhaps the best move is to run away, perhaps the best move is to k-turn, perhaps you should slow walk and barrel roll...

If someone puts a Tie Interceptor in a spot where it can get shot at with 9 dice, they clearly did something wrong. Because the last thing you want to do with a glass cannon is let it get shot at... Unless doing so let you move other ships into even better positions and the whole thing was on the lines of a gambit.

The fact that so many of us say he did something wrong is not just hindsight, it's that we know he either did something wrong, or was quite simply out played. Although taking advantage of someone's mistake is a huge part of what we call skill.

Again going back to probabilities, it's quite simple to show that the probability of a Tie Interceptor getting killed goes up each attack made against it in a round...

Kinda of on a side note but is it bad to take a risk if the reward is worth it. Had he have gotten the last two hits on Echo then what would the verdict be? I don't recall the particular Interceptor the OP lost but from a tactical standpoint would taking out Echo have been worth the risk had it succeeded? The other issue I have is that the same action need be viewed the same from a strategy standpoint such that if it was bad form to lose an Interceptor to Echo then actually killing Echo should still be bad form. If it is bad only because he lost the Interceptor then the dice are the only variable in the equation.

Considering I was trying to have a cordial discussion with you, I can see why everyone thinks you're a fkn dueche bag..You need anger management help..Don't get pissed off because you're a lousy player and an even worse communicator socially. Perhaps if you got off Skype once in awhile and met people face to face you wouldn't have this 12 year old internet tough guy persona..Cause you would get dropped like a sack of potatoes if you acted like this in real life.Congrats on winning the tool of the forums award. Mom must be proud.

The fact you woke up this morning and had the brain-power to turn on a computer and type random nonsense is amazing.Well done man, we'll keep praying for you.

Lmao.. Is that really the best you have?! Seriously? From someone so much smarter and better at everything then people on this forum, I expected a little more.

I mean, you are like the xwing version of moses or something right? The great, all knowing prophet that is so amazing at this game nobody can beat him? Unless of coarse you do lose, then it was the dice gods fault.

Please, Emperor Ribann.. Bestow upon us your teachings of life. Bless us with your graceful and cunning xwing play.

Smite the dice gods and protect us from their harm. Oh wise one, please take pity on us forgotten souls and lead us into the days of xwing salvation!