One of the basic measurements of the offensive potential of an X-wing list is the raw attack dice output. If you're on this forum, chances are you're used to seeing lists evaluated by simply counting up the total number of attack dice. For example, a TIE swarm with eight TIE fighters puts out sixteen attack dice. And sixteen is better than the twelve attack dice a typical four-ship rebel list puts out... or is it?

Counting the attack dice a list puts out is only part of that list's attack value. It's a bad habit, that I suspect comes from the other games with different mechanics, such as Warhammer 40k. There is another, easily quantifiable value that matters a great deal when measuring the offensive strength of a list: number of attacks, (usually also the number of ships).

Here's a dramatic comparison to illustrate my point:

Let's say we have a group of ten HWK-290s with no upgrades. That's ten attack dice, one per HWK. Line them up against a cloaked TIE Phantom at range 2. How much damage do you think these HWKs are going to do? Not much is my guess.

Now put that same Phantom in the firing arcs of two other Phantoms at range 1. They're going to roll 5 dice each for a total of 10, just like the HWKs... but I'm liking their chances a lot better.

They're both rolling the same number of attack dice, but the Phantoms are going to do much better, because the target only throws two sets of defense dice against them. In the Phantom-vs-Phantom scenario, it's 10 attack dice vs 8 defense dice. In the HWK vs Phantom scenario, it's 10 attack vs 40 defense.

The differences are not as dramatic once you start comparing lists that people actually fly, but there is an important difference here. The 12 attack dice from a typical rebel build would go up against 4 sets of defense dice. The 16 from that 8-TIE swarm go up against 8 sets of defense dice. Against a 3-evade target, the difference is 12 attack vs 12 defense / 16 attack vs 24 defense. Attack dice are better than defense, but the difference made by concentrating your attack dice in fewer attacks should not be overlooked.

I always take the number of attacks my dice are spread over into account when making my lists. My shorthand is: #attack dice/#attacks. So a 4-ship rebel list would probably be: 12/4.

What do you guys think? Is this way of looking at attack dice justified?

I agree. I see way too many counting all their dice together when they are spread out over a lot of ships.

I have used the "ratio" method before, and I agree with you/it. It also works for mixed ship squads, but it doesn't take into account turrets, or the hull/shields, or the dials, but it gives you a better # than counting all of the dice spread out over more ships.

I've always thought this as well. Smaller amounts of ships with higher individual attack ratings have the edge in probability for sure. But at the end of the day, it is still a dice game. One day 12/4 will roll better, and another day 16/7 will roll better. Fly what you like flying.

Oh and sacrifice a kidney to the fickle dice gods...

One of the basic measurements of the offensive potential of an X-wing list is the raw attack dice output…

I always take the number of attacks my dice are spread over into account when making my lists. My shorthand is: #attack dice/#attacks. So a 4-ship rebel list would probably be: 12/4.

What do you guys think? Is this way of looking at attack dice justified?

I've harped on this point before, but counting attack dice is irrelevant and misleading. Any system that tells you three Academy Pilots have the same offensive output as a pair of Falcons is broken. (Not to mention that an Alpha Squadron Pilot supposedly has the same stopping power as Corran + Marksmanship + FCS, or that a Green Squadron Pilot with Predator + Outmaneuver + Proton Rockets isn't meaningfully similar to a naked Scimitar Squadron Pilot with an APT… I could go on, because there are just so many examples.)

As for your alternative, lists can't have any more than 8 ships, so I'd really prefer to just say "I have two ships with 3 Attack, plus Backstabber" rather than saying "I have 8 dice" or even "I have 8 dice across 3 attacks".

Counting dice is fine when its 4, MAYBE 5 ships or less. But yes, when I read a swarm list and someone being proud about 16 dice without howlrunner, I roll my eyes.

Math is not my strong suite, but maybe it would be more telling to take the attack dice and divide by number of ships?

A 3-die attack does 75-100% more damage than a 2-die attack, depending on your assumptions about the action economy.

A third factor is the "quality" of the attacks.

Two squads might have the same number of attack dice, and have the same number of ships using said attack dice as well. But if one list can only target lock/focus, and other other can do both via ptl, predator, etc, then their damage potential is much higher.

Yeah total red is definitely a limited view of damage output. It gives you only the total POTENTIAL damage per turn. It's still a number worth looking at, but certainly not the be all/end all of a list.

I do count total red dice, and I also count how much it COULD produce in a turn if at range 1. For instance, 4 Xs have 12 attack dice, 16 at range 1. 2 Xs and 3 Zs also have 12 attack dice, but 17 at range 1. So the second list could produce more damage, but it is also allowing more green dice which more or less negates the difference in potential output.

Anyway, I wouldn't go so far as to say the number of total ted dice is irrelevant, but quality as well as quantity is important.

a ship with 2 attack dice CAN be great if outfitted properly. Black Squadron pilots with Predator for example, can potentially be more threatening that a rookie pilot (X-Wing) naked, even though the X-Wing has more attack dice.

Still in general, the less evade rolls you need to worry about the better in most cases. However there are a few times you DO want alot of attacks. Falcon's with C-3PO and Falcon Title, for example, or Tarn Mison with R7.

The attack AND defense needs to be considered together! There is a point of diminishing returns on both and the combination needs to be considered.

For instance, Two 5 attack ships look great, until one is destroyed! Then 5 2 attack ships look better, but really there is a sweet spot somewhere in between for the reasons mentioned above. So Maybe it becomes 1 5 attack ship and 2 2 attack ships because the defense balances the loss of 1 attack!

Hence, if the defense is the same, such as Ties and Squints, looking at offense and upgrades is easier to compare.

It's rather complicated and all we are really doing is trying to simplify the combinations in our own mind, esp. since most of us don't have access to a supercomputer to actually run all the possibilities! LOL!

I find the dice counting to only be useful in the "pivotal round" or the Alpha Strike. Knowing how much you can lay down vs. whatever ship you want dead first is important...I just posted a Developing List thread that has 17dice range 1 out of 4 ships...including 1 academy tie...

There are a lot of considerations past dice counts that really matter...knowing you're only in for less than 10 dice for a tournament list means you're expecting your flying to be better than all of your opponents... same with HP...

Dice count is only step one.

I've never looked at the number of dice but rather the EDO (Expected Damage Output). When you are building a squad you should look at the EDO of the ships to figure out its offensive power. There is a Website a fan put together a while back http://www.xwingdice.com use this to get a better understanding of what the EDO should be. The only issue is the site has not been updated in some time to reflect the current game with the newer abilities.

12 vs 16 dice it really depends on you opponents agility dice. Against a decimators 0 agility, 16 is way better, a against cloaked Phantoms, the 12 is better hands down.

Well all else being equal, 10 dice is going to on avg do the same amount of damage, regardless of what ship you're using.

I mean lets say in theory you had 5 Tie Fighters lined up facing 5 Tie Fighters at range 2, no one moved any ship, they just rolled damage and evades. The side with that shoots first should win that fight most times.

That's where the whole thing breaks down though, all things are never equal. You're pretty much never going to have that situation, so the total number of dice just isn't that big of a deal.

Well all else being equal, 10 dice is going to on avg do the same amount of damage, regardless of what ship you're using.

I know you know this, but making it explicit: the critical point is that how those 10 dice are distributed among your attacking ships can make a great deal of difference depending on your target's Agility. Five naked Bandit Squadron Pilots shooting at three naked Knave Squadron Pilots will typically do 3 damage per round*; returning fire, the E-wings will typically do 5 damage per round despite having fewer red dice overall.

(*Assuming the attacker has focus and the defender doesn't.)

I know you know this, but making it explicit:

Sure, I should of been a bit more explicit myself.

10 HWK's, 5 Tie's or 2 Phantoms at range 1 all roll 10 dice, and if in theory you were just rolling dice to count <hits> and <crits> and there was no defense roll at all, what ship those dice came from wouldn't matter.

Those 16 can be 24 at range 1, while the another only 16.

Statistics, you can bend them to look like you have some kind of absolute truth if you don't try to explain the rest.

Being spread is not a bad thing, because it will keep your firepower going longer in the game. The drawback, your attacks will be less successful, and you will be taking small bites. But then, since you have 8 ships instead of 4, you can block your opponent put him where you want, and concentrate fire at range 1.

Play at your strengths.

Edit - Vorpal, those are 60 points vs 81 points. Add a few bandits and you will get about the same results, and the bandits shoot before the E-wings. I know it was an example, but i think it is missleading.

Those 16 can be 24 at range 1, while the another only 16.

Statistics, you can bend them to look like you have some kind of absolute truth if you don't try to explain the rest.

Being spread is not a bad thing, because it will keep your firepower going longer in the game. The drawback, your attacks will be less successful, and you will be taking small bites. But then, since you have 8 ships instead of 4, you can block your opponent put him where you want, and concentrate fire at range 1.

Play at your strengths.

The point isn't that swarms are bad lists (obviously they aren't), but that counting attack dice in a vacuum isn't particularly relevant to the actual damage you can inflict on a particular target. The fact that the number of attack dice in a list varies depending on the engagement range is just one of the many reasons that counting attack dice isn't useful.

Yeah that is the point you are trying to make (and me both), but either i read the OP wrong, or that is not what he really means (and the title...).

MathWing perspective: using a weighted average across the entire meta:

Attack dice damage (normalized to 2 attack dice):

2 attack dice = 1.0

3 attack dice ~= 1.76

4 attack dice ~= 2.62

Conversely defense dice (normalized to 3 agility):

0 agility ~= 0.43

1 agility ~= 0.55

2 agility ~= 0.73

3 agility = 1.0

4 agility ~= 1.39

Consider shields to be worth ~15-20% more than Hull.

The brute-force value of a squad is then:

( total attack value ) * ( total durability )

In a particular match-up these numbers will be slightly different from the above, since it depends on what you are shooting, what is shooting at you, what the range bins are, and what the action economy is. But it's an extremely good starting point.

or that is not what he really means (and the title...).

I think it was poorly worded. He's saying the same thing that VS, you and myself are all saying. That just adding up the total attack dice for your list isn't very useful information.

There is no magic number of attack dice you need to have a good list. Same goes for HP's really, which I've seen claimed before but that was proven false.

So does that make a 7 tie swarm have a score of 49? 7 x 7?

So does that make a 7 tie swarm have a score of 49? 7 x 7?

Normalizing durability to 3 hull behind 3 agility, yes. With Howlrunner the damage output is more like 1.35x with 3 dice, so it would be:

7 * (6*1.35 + 1) = 63.7

vs an 8-TIE Swarm being 64.

Difference being, the 8-TIE swarm costs 96 points, and the Howlrunner swarm only costs 90. So 7 TIEs is more cost efficient, as long as Howlrunner is still alive.

2X2B is:

(2*1.29 + 2*1.58)*(4*1.76) = 40.4

Cost: 86.

That's still less value than 7 TIEs (without Howlrunner), but named X-wing pilots are fantastic (Biggs).

Would dual falcons be an anomaly then? They only have two 3-dice attacks, and both are 1 agility, yet it is a pretty strong squad (after upgrades).