Basic Jousting Stats

By Quirky, in X-Wing

So finally, all the basic ship features are in.

Cloaking, barrel rolls, boost, maneuver dials, k-turn, 360/180-arcs. Most of it simulated with a few guestimates.

Now I will try out some of those values and try to fine tune the defaults a little.

The whole movement part of the sim is done like this:

Each shiptype has stress risk that is tested every turn. If you get stress you can't take actions of course but it also halves your chances of acquire a target to shoot at.

Next step is for each ship to acquire a target, 100% focus fire or completely random are two options for each ship type, but the default is a value between 1-99%. At 50% a ship has a straight up 50/50 to acquire the priority target (the ship at the top of the enemy list), if that fails it will try with half that chance on all the remaining ships one at a time. With a low setting or few ships it happens quite often that a ship doesn't acquire a target. With all the outmaneuvering that now goes on I will probably raise the default to 66% or so. This chance is heavily increased for ships with 180 or 360 arcs.

After this each ship gets a chance to outmaneuver their attackers. It is a straight up, fairly low % chance, for each ship that has a ship targeted to loose that target. The evasive ship does not loose its target in turn. This chance is modified by a value for each ship type that can be set, the default values are loosely based on MJ's weights for maneuver dial quality. Five categories from 0-20%. On top of that we have the k-turn and lack of k-turn abilities that also affect the base maneuver chance. So a normal tie fighter usually shakes 15% of his attackers every round.

If a ship loose their target this way they are not allowed to try to target a secondary target. If they could it wouldn't really be a clear outmaenuvering. I rather have fewer outmaneuvers happening but make them stronger when they do happen.

After that comes Barrel Roll, Boost and Decloaking. They each have a chance to succeed versus all ships that targets them, but if BR or B are used it costs them their action that turn. If the ship is lucky it can BR out of more than one arc, but the chance is very low. It takes two actions to do both BR and Boost and double actions are not implemented yet. Decloaking is handled at this time as well, since decloaking is also a escape method and it means that they can cloak again if they didn't have a shot at the enemy anyways.

The 360 arc ship cannot be outmaneuvered. This is a really big advantage. They also stress out less since they don't rely on k-turns as much to stay on target.

Most of these values and modifiers can be adjusted as one sees fit, but I am hoping to find some defaults that give accurate results.

Then the shooting takes over and that is mostly done according to the rules. Decloaking happens right before it is their turn to shoot and if there are too many ship still left that can shoot and that targets the cloaker it stays hidden.

Focus for attack is only used if you have two or more eyes, or you can't be shot at yourself.

Overkill, that is your target got killed before you had a chance to shoot, gives you half your FocusFire chance to acquire a new target (this is pretty strong since these new targets can't outmaneuver or get away from you). It had to be done otherwise two swarms would overkill ship number 1 in each list many times over and the rest of the ships were relatively unharmed every round.)

In the clean up phase the destroyed ships are removed and tokens are reset, except Target Locks and Cloak of course.

Just wanted to give you guys an update. I seem to postpone the new ship ranking again and again, but there are always one more bug to kill or one little feature that should be there before I make a new list hehe.

Next step is the tweaking of the dafault values, and then I will pull up the excel sheet and fill in some result numbers. :-)

Edited by Quirky

So a quick test against a basic squad that looked like this:

X-Wing+hull, B-Wing, Interceptorx3

RANKING (How often the test squad won)

TIE Fighter 12 x7 12+shield x1 30.27

Firespray 33x3 37.56

Z-95 12 x7 12+Shieldx1 47.58

TIE Interceptor 18x2 18+hullx2 18+shieldx1 50.67
TIE Phantom 25x4 51.91

Lambda 21+shieldx4. 54.66

B-Wing 22+Hull x4 57.45
TIE Defender 30+hull x3 57.48

A-Wing 17+Hull x5 61.92
TIE Bomber 16x 5 16+shield x1 61.94

E-Wing 27+Shield x1 27+Shield+Hull x2 69.43
X-Wing 21+Shield x4 71.86

Y-Wing 18x2 18+Hullx2 18+Shieldx1 90.94
YT-1300 27+Shield x1 27+Shield+Hull x2 93.82
TIE Advanced 21+shield x4 94.94

HWK 16 x5 16+Shield x1 99.97

Special cases:

YT Heavy +shield+hull x2 (no pilot ability) 82.81

YT Heavy x3 (no pilot ability) 23.72

Update:

I updated the prio target list and sorted it based on attack / (remaining hull +shields) / agility. That means that dangerous and easy to kill targets get the top spot while a attack 1 tough to kill target gets the lowest priority. The list is updated every turn.

I also added a statistics block so I can track average rolls, damage, number of priority shots compared to shots on secondary targets compared to misses, number of barrel rolls and other actions, etc, etc. I can now do this per ship, per ship type, per squad or total values after each batch of jousts. Should make it easier to identify problems, bugs and fine tune the guestimates for all the values that goes into the simulation. I am not done with this, but I have a few stats done and will add the rest (it is alot maybe 25ish different values per ship). On the preference page you can chose what type of stats you want to see, none, total, per squad, per type or per ship.

I squashed some minor bugs. Still have a few minor ones that I know of, but I am looking for them. :-)

Next step is to start on the actual abilities and maybe add a point calculator to make it easier to balance squads pointswise when they are entered. Probably need a generic formula if one uses non standard ship types or I will only help with the build cost if the ships are standard types. Not a high priority but nice to have.

--------------------

I also had time to actually play the game, yay!

Two more games with my friend, did 1-1.

Played in a pre reginonals casual tournament with borrowd ships (actually had to buy two starter boxes to get the "stuff" needed for tournament play. It went fairly well, 3-1 and lost on point spread, ended up number 3 out of, 15 players I think. I do think the opponents were fairly good, they had traveled here for the regionals tournament tomorrow. I will probably meet most of them tomorrow again at the real tournament.

So I have a total of 8 games under my belt. I still have spent way more time on the forums and coding the sim than actually playing, hehe. If I do ok tomorrow I will report back. If you hear nothing, you know I had to leave in disgrace, hehe. I played two defenders with HLC and Jonus w/ predator. Not the best squad obviously, but the defenders have done fairly well in my simulations and they are simple to fly (white k-turns). And since I can't fly, I better not play something complicated. I could just park two falcons in a corner, but there is a limit even for me. :-) Some of my opponents really knew the game and I kind of surprised them with some deep insights just to follow up with noob questions and punching markers from the starting kit. But that's how I (Barrel) Roll. I actually played three matches without even doing one barrel roll. Then I met an opponent that probably used half of his actions rolling all over the field with a mini tie swarm and a defender. After seeing him go at it I got at least two barrel rolls in before he gave me the game. Let's just say he was rightly disappointed in his green dice, hehe.

Oh well it is getting late and the regionals will be a whole day event so time for bed.

Which tournament is it? Must be a Nationals tournament, no? Regionals should be over.

Hmm, yeah it is Nationals today, my bad. First prize is a plain ticket to US and the big tournament there.

I should get going, they are about to start. Yesterday's tournament was just a warm up. :-)

Well, you can tell them that we would like to get the squad details like I have been doing for the Regionals! :-)

I will tell them so send the lists to you MJ, it was our shop, Fantasia and our club Uppsala Starfighters, that hosted the event.

And I didn't have to go home in disgrace today, yay!

I was the under dog (only 8 played games in total before the event) and I actually qualified for the top eight! I got some comments about playing with borrowed ships, two starter boxes bought the day before to get the markers, and I didn't even have the asteroids punched out yet. I think it was a total of 40 or so players from all over Scandinavia, It is called Nordic Championship and we had qualifiers from alot of regionals flying in to compete. They got some kind of bye (bypassing one match and getting a free win as their prizes from the different regionals). :-)

I know have fifteen games under my belt and most of them in a tournament setting so I am beginning to feel like a pro, lol.

My opponent in the single elimination top eight match (quarter finals) was the favorite. Everyone knew him from Stockholm, he had a collection of rulers and things with different tournament names on them and had won or placed top three all over the place since the game was published. He played a notorius BBBB-Wing list, (Advanced Sensor shenanighans), and was very confident that he would win. And when he heard I was a beginner even more so. Then he made a mistake and actually jousted with my Jonus Bonus list (2 HLC Defenders and Jonus for poor mans target lock on the HLC). My simulator gave me confidence that I could beat them head to head, so I accepted the challenge once I got into position.

A lesson learned from yesterday was that asteroid placement is really important and after having been outmaneuvered in every game in the warmup tournament, I spent the night planning flying lanes, possible asteroid placements, alternatives if I got asteroid blocked, etc. It really paid off today. They did not get the drop on me, with an exception of my first encounter with a Falcon+Engine Upgrade. That bird can fly fast! My plans held and I got to meet most squads more or less head on, on my terms. Thank you X-Wing Miniatures Maneuvers test bench program! Just implement Defenders flying dial and I will be completely happy! I should look into who wrote that program and give proper credit.

According to my simulation findings B-Wings are overvalued in jousting and Defenders generally undervalued. So when he chose to joust me I accepted. And my white k-turns won the day in the end. We ended up in a pretty tricky diagonal lane, with asteroids all over (mostly my pre game planned asteroids), but I grinded him down. He was very surprised how fast I could take out his undefeated B-Wings. HLC+focus+two rerolled dice hit hard if the B-WIngs spend their focus on shooting and only have 1 agility. It doesn't really matter if you roll badly, you will go down. We ran out of time if I remember correctly, but everyone knew that I was ahead on points so he immediately congratulated me when it was over. He was a little shell shocked I think.

Semi final, yay! Tired but more confident I faced off against the Third fricking Han Solo shoots again and again and again... They basically starts rolling the dice until they are satisifide with the result, it's like a three year old playing Yatzy, they just keep rolling until all the dice are the same. :-( In the end I started to accept one hit, not using focus, just to make them stop rolling the dice. I did the same thing this time as the two previous times and went for Han's escorts, three Z95. I got them good in my sights, but they took longer to kill than the previous two matches against other players with the same list. I wasn't too concerned since I knew it would end up with me chasing Han all over the place anyways.

I was ahead on points and I mentioned slow playing and the onlookers started to talk about it, and I had second thoughts. A semi final should not be decided by slow play or me fleeing with damaged Jonus. I said "**** it!" The onlookers cheered and I charged into the fray. My opponent smiled ofcourse, hehe. Either he would get Jonus or I would get Han. Last turn after forcing him onto first an asteroid, then bumping him and so on, I didn't manage to stop him from firing on Jonus and he got shot down jsut barely. I had gotten Han down to 1 HP the round before, and was one white k-turn away from finishing him with my last defender. Alas, time was out and he won on points. Everyone agreed though that Han would have gone down next turn or maaaaybe the turn after that if he was really lucky. He had very little room to maneuver and I had two shields and three Hull left and would have had a clear HLC shot with focus two turns in a row. As close as it could be, but I very much enjoyed the match. This time the margins where not on my side, but I got into the top eight as the eight player with a 1 point minor win, a 12 point and a 14 point real win, a loss and win. So the points were generally on my side.

I got some new fancy rulers with the Nordic Championship stamp and a shared third place [edit: actually a fourth place due to point spread or something]. But not a paid trip to the US world cup. The other finalist didn't like my list, since I beat him with it the day before (I think), so he was very happy to meet Han Shoots First instead, or as I would like to call it Han rolls again, and again, and again.

Most people were very impressed when I packed my borrowed ships into my two new starterboxes and said good bye. Some mentioned that they would like to take another look at the simulator, hehe. :-D

I will check tomorrow and see how they did in the finals. I was way too tired to stay and look. 7 games and my brain felt like mush and it was very hot and sweaty. I never would have imagine that X-Wing was an endurance sport?

All in all a great experience and now I'm really hooked on the game.

Edited by Quirky

I saw your post, very up to date reporting! :-)

Always nice to be close to beating the winner, hehe.

Maybe now I can get some other opponents than my friend at our club playing nights. :-)

My squad was correct in your list and my semi finals and quarter finals opponent's squads as well.

The job you are doing, keeping track of it all, is really appreciated!