As soon as I saw the z95 (and c3p0) I called the yt1300 build w z95 mini swarm as completely broken and vorpal sword and major juggler argued with me saying statistically it was the same as Han shoots first.

Hm, I don't recall saying that they were statistically identical. Functionally they are similar, but I was on record very shortly after 3P0 was spoiled suggesting the "Fat Han" build (w/ PtL instead of Predator) that became very prevalent in the wave 4 Regionals:

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/102601-will-upcoming-releases-change-the-meta-philosophy/?p=1030640

I was certainly on record as Z's being very efficient, which is half of what is making the YT-1300 + 3P0 builds work so well now.

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/100360-using-lanchesters-square-law-to-predict-ships-jousting-values-and-fair-point-values-work-in-progress/?p=1111620

"Wait and see" - yeah, I usually take that approach pre-release unless something is a really strong outlier.

That said, on the immediate to-do list is:

• Update wave 3 statistics (FYI all the Spainish Regional results have been pulled in)
• Run the statistics with all squads weighted equally
• Run the statistics looking at only the winners
• ... and more.

Stunning analysis ultimately showing a 12% swing from Imperials to Rebels in Wave 4. Wave 6 will need to show Imperials some love IMO. Big base ships are not going away anytime soon.

Bigger jump is 4 rebel ships to Falcon+support seems like everyone using XXBB or 4 X decided to use the Falcon

Major Juggler was wave 3.5 the addition of the Huge ships(read as 3PO)?

1. As soon as I saw the z95 (and c3p0) I called the yt1300 build w z95 mini swarm as completely broken and

2. vorpal sword and major juggler argued with me saying statistically it was the same as Han shoots first. I ended that debate saying just to wait until it's release and the results are So far showing blatantly obvious how badly the swing for rebels has been.

3. Sadly rebels are going to be much more overpowered when rebel aces release because the a wing w refit is an even better mini swarm ship.

4. The decimator is worse then both YTs because the cost of it doesn't allow for proper support.

5.The yt1300 was always a great ship with its turret and a pretty much garaunteed ship kill each turn.

6.It's biggest weakness was and still is the swarm. However the swarm has been beaten to death by ffg with nearly ever new release having something to deliberately target a swarm build.

1. Oh, so this is all your fault then?

2. You beat the math of two major contributors to this forum with speculation? Impressive. Given that Rebels had the larger share (based on the above data) in Wave 3, followed by an Imperial Wave 4 meta, which has now swung back the other way, I'd say it might just be a natural progression from wave to wave. Is it a larger swing? Sure. But the more people feel one side or build is dominant, the more people who are going to try something else/to beat it the next chance they get. (In other words, now everyone is looking for "Super-Falcon" counters, so we might see more people playing Imperial with whatever tools they get in Wave 5 to that end.)

3. I hardly think the A-Wing, even with its upcoming upgrades, is going to be "overpowered". It's a minimum of 15 points to the Z's 12, which leaves quite a bit less room for important upgrades in the rest of the build.

4. We hardly know anything about the Decimator yet...

5. I'm not one of the math guys, but I'm pretty sure it's far from a "guaranteed" kill.

6. Like I said, everyone wants to counter whatever is currently dominant. Let me put it this way: if there's a 20-30% chance of running into a certain build, especially the higher you climb at your tournament, why wouldn't you be looking for some way to beat that build? I can understand disliking so much (some perceived, some very real) swarm hate being released by FFG upsetting some people. On the other hand, they recognized that something in their game was unbalanced and they fixed it without completely removing it. See the data above: swarms are still the 3rd most played Imperial build. And they happen to be one of the best things to fly against "Super-Falcons" so...

So is there any way to consistently beat Falcon builds and Phantom builds without running either one of those builds yourself?

I especially want to know for the Empire side.

Here's my tl;dr post on the Chicago (and some Milwaukee) Regional...

http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/1213492/milwaukee-and-chicago-2014-regional-report

Here's my tl;dr post on the Chicago (and some Milwaukee) Regional...

http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/1213492/milwaukee-and-chicago-2014-regional-report

Really solid report! Congrats on the win!

Thank you on both counts!

The list distribution is pretty interesting from wave to wave.

Wave 3 statistics are updated on the first page!

The list distribution is pretty interesting from wave to wave.

Under Tournament Statistics (wave 3 and wave 4) / Squad Archetypes on the first page, I sorted all of the individual squads by usage within their category, so you can quickly see which ships mixes were used most successfully.

Enjoy. More to come later.

The list distribution is pretty interesting from wave to wave.

Agree. I love it when we can use data to prove what we were thinking.

1. As soon as I saw the z95 (and c3p0) I called the yt1300 build w z95 mini swarm as completely broken and

2. vorpal sword and major juggler argued with me saying statistically it was the same as Han shoots first. I ended that debate saying just to wait until it's release and the results are So far showing blatantly obvious how badly the swing for rebels has been.

3. Sadly rebels are going to be much more overpowered when rebel aces release because the a wing w refit is an even better mini swarm ship.

4. The decimator is worse then both YTs because the cost of it doesn't allow for proper support.

5.The yt1300 was always a great ship with its turret and a pretty much garaunteed ship kill each turn.

6.It's biggest weakness was and still is the swarm. However the swarm has been beaten to death by ffg with nearly ever new release having something to deliberately target a swarm build.

1. Oh, so this is all your fault then?

2. You beat the math of two major contributors to this forum with speculation? Impressive. Given that Rebels had the larger share (based on the above data) in Wave 3, followed by an Imperial Wave 4 meta, which has now swung back the other way, I'd say it might just be a natural progression from wave to wave. Is it a larger swing? Sure. But the more people feel one side or build is dominant, the more people who are going to try something else/to beat it the next chance they get. (In other words, now everyone is looking for "Super-Falcon" counters, so we might see more people playing Imperial with whatever tools they get in Wave 5 to that end.)

3. I hardly think the A-Wing, even with its upcoming upgrades, is going to be "overpowered". It's a minimum of 15 points to the Z's 12, which leaves quite a bit less room for important upgrades in the rest of the build.

4. We hardly know anything about the Decimator yet...

5. I'm not one of the math guys, but I'm pretty sure it's far from a "guaranteed" kill.

6. Like I said, everyone wants to counter whatever is currently dominant. Let me put it this way: if there's a 20-30% chance of running into a certain build, especially the higher you climb at your tournament, why wouldn't you be looking for some way to beat that build? I can understand disliking so much (some perceived, some very real) swarm hate being released by FFG upsetting some people. On the other hand, they recognized that something in their game was unbalanced and they fixed it without completely removing it. See the data above: swarms are still the 3rd most played Imperial build. And they happen to be one of the best things to fly against "Super-Falcons" so...

1. As soon as I saw the z95 (and c3p0) I called the yt1300 build w z95 mini swarm as completely broken and

2. vorpal sword and major juggler argued with me saying statistically it was the same as Han shoots first. I ended that debate saying just to wait until it's release and the results are So far showing blatantly obvious how badly the swing for rebels has been.

3. Sadly rebels are going to be much more overpowered when rebel aces release because the a wing w refit is an even better mini swarm ship.

4. The decimator is worse then both YTs because the cost of it doesn't allow for proper support.

5.The yt1300 was always a great ship with its turret and a pretty much garaunteed ship kill each turn.

6.It's biggest weakness was and still is the swarm. However the swarm has been beaten to death by ffg with nearly ever new release having something to deliberately target a swarm build.

1. Oh, so this is all your fault then?

2. You beat the math of two major contributors to this forum with speculation? Impressive. Given that Rebels had the larger share (based on the above data) in Wave 3, followed by an Imperial Wave 4 meta, which has now swung back the other way, I'd say it might just be a natural progression from wave to wave. Is it a larger swing? Sure. But the more people feel one side or build is dominant, the more people who are going to try something else/to beat it the next chance they get. (In other words, now everyone is looking for "Super-Falcon" counters, so we might see more people playing Imperial with whatever tools they get in Wave 5 to that end.)

3. I hardly think the A-Wing, even with its upcoming upgrades, is going to be "overpowered". It's a minimum of 15 points to the Z's 12, which leaves quite a bit less room for important upgrades in the rest of the build.

4. We hardly know anything about the Decimator yet...

5. I'm not one of the math guys, but I'm pretty sure it's far from a "guaranteed" kill.

6. Like I said, everyone wants to counter whatever is currently dominant. Let me put it this way: if there's a 20-30% chance of running into a certain build, especially the higher you climb at your tournament, why wouldn't you be looking for some way to beat that build? I can understand disliking so much (some perceived, some very real) swarm hate being released by FFG upsetting some people. On the other hand, they recognized that something in their game was unbalanced and they fixed it without completely removing it. See the data above: swarms are still the 3rd most played Imperial build. And they happen to be one of the best things to fly against "Super-Falcons" so...

Just be honest and admit you missed the entire point on how it was stated the releases for rebels was going to make them much stronger and people like you argued it wasn't true. When in fact the exact same builds that were called out for being broken are actually the builds winning he majority of tournaments. Instead of admitting your mistakes you continue to argue even after I dropped the subject and used the wait and see approach to show people like you that in fact what was actually said was true. And even the stats on this page show this. Once again I'll leave you to argue with yourself and simply say that the rebel swing will only get worse when rebel aces releases. I already listed what build using the falcon and awings I believe will evolve in this meta further unbalancing the game. There really is no point arguing about it since it's going to release regardless however the only people on denial about the impact these back to back rebel releases have on game balance are people like you and vorpal who refuse to believe in these facts even after it's blatantly in your face.

You keep saying "you" like I was around for some previous argument on this topic. Hint: I wasn't and I have no idea who you are. You may have dropped the subject before, but here you come to say "I told you so." Who cares? Whether as you claim C3PO Falcons are broken (they're not, or they'd win everything; a lot of people need to learn what broken really means) or as I hypothesized the Rebels are the hotness because people are both tired of Swarms and afraid of Phantoms, doesn't really matter. If you don't like it, don't play. But there is always going to be a "top build" that wins more because more people play it, and more people play because it wins more. Such is the nature of almost any game. Will even more Rebels be played when Aces come out? That seems likely. However, you like to jump to the conclusion that something is going to be broken, while a more logical guess is that they are both added versatility to peoples' favorite ships and shiny new toys.

An interesting factor to weigh in on the dispute is the players themselves. I confess I'm new on the X-Wing scene, but I can see some players who I feel would show strong with any well designed list. If the current flavor bubbles up into their list designs, I suspect the list will triumph. I am not suggesting that this notion alone explains the full weight of a paradigm shift away - but it must factor in on some level. Well, that my 2 credits...my time is up.

1. As soon as I saw the z95 (and c3p0) I called the yt1300 build w z95 mini swarm as completely broken and

2. vorpal sword and major juggler argued with me saying statistically it was the same as Han shoots first. I ended that debate saying just to wait until it's release and the results are So far showing blatantly obvious how badly the swing for rebels has been.

3. Sadly rebels are going to be much more overpowered when rebel aces release because the a wing w refit is an even better mini swarm ship.

4. The decimator is worse then both YTs because the cost of it doesn't allow for proper support.

5.The yt1300 was always a great ship with its turret and a pretty much garaunteed ship kill each turn.

6.It's biggest weakness was and still is the swarm. However the swarm has been beaten to death by ffg with nearly ever new release having something to deliberately target a swarm build.

1. Oh, so this is all your fault then?

2. You beat the math of two major contributors to this forum with speculation? Impressive. Given that Rebels had the larger share (based on the above data) in Wave 3, followed by an Imperial Wave 4 meta, which has now swung back the other way, I'd say it might just be a natural progression from wave to wave. Is it a larger swing? Sure. But the more people feel one side or build is dominant, the more people who are going to try something else/to beat it the next chance they get. (In other words, now everyone is looking for "Super-Falcon" counters, so we might see more people playing Imperial with whatever tools they get in Wave 5 to that end.)

3. I hardly think the A-Wing, even with its upcoming upgrades, is going to be "overpowered". It's a minimum of 15 points to the Z's 12, which leaves quite a bit less room for important upgrades in the rest of the build.

4. We hardly know anything about the Decimator yet...

5. I'm not one of the math guys, but I'm pretty sure it's far from a "guaranteed" kill.

6. Like I said, everyone wants to counter whatever is currently dominant. Let me put it this way: if there's a 20-30% chance of running into a certain build, especially the higher you climb at your tournament, why wouldn't you be looking for some way to beat that build? I can understand disliking so much (some perceived, some very real) swarm hate being released by FFG upsetting some people. On the other hand, they recognized that something in their game was unbalanced and they fixed it without completely removing it. See the data above: swarms are still the 3rd most played Imperial build. And they happen to be one of the best things to fly against "Super-Falcons" so...

Just be honest and admit you missed the entire point on how it was stated the releases for rebels was going to make them much stronger and people like you argued it wasn't true. When in fact the exact same builds that were called out for being broken are actually the builds winning he majority of tournaments. Instead of admitting your mistakes you continue to argue even after I dropped the subject and used the wait and see approach to show people like you that in fact what was actually said was true. And even the stats on this page show this. Once again I'll leave you to argue with yourself and simply say that the rebel swing will only get worse when rebel aces releases. I already listed what build using the falcon and awings I believe will evolve in this meta further unbalancing the game. There really is no point arguing about it since it's going to release regardless however the only people on denial about the impact these back to back rebel releases have on game balance are people like you and vorpal who refuse to believe in these facts even after it's blatantly in your face.

You keep saying "you" like I was around for some previous argument on this topic. Hint: I wasn't and I have no idea who you are. You may have dropped the subject before, but here you come to say "I told you so." Who cares? Whether as you claim C3PO Falcons are broken (they're not, or they'd win everything; a lot of people need to learn what broken really means) or as I hypothesized the Rebels are the hotness because people are both tired of Swarms and afraid of Phantoms, doesn't really matter. If you don't like it, don't play. But there is always going to be a "top build" that wins more because more people play it, and more people play because it wins more. Such is the nature of almost any game. Will even more Rebels be played when Aces come out? That seems likely. However, you like to jump to the conclusion that something is going to be broken, while a more logical guess is that they are both added versatility to peoples' favorite ships and shiny new toys.

In addition to these factors, I think it's well worth thinking about how much the information itself then pushes the meta quickly and maybe even to extremes it might not otherwise see.

I'm not saying I don't like or appreciate the efforts of Major Juggler as I regularly follow them, but anyone that pretends that the numbers themselves are pure observation (even though I realize that is the intent) or that his prediction/analysis thread aren't influencing what some people bring (and then influencing the results to fit those predictions) is kidding themselves.

Nature of the beast. He would have kept them to himself or something along these lines. I'm glad for the information. It's interesting.

Nature of the beast. He would have kept them to himself or something along these lines. I'm glad for the information. It's interesting.

Absolutely, but I think it's important to note and I've seen only Vorpal Sword hint at the idea. Most people take the numbers and results at pretty much face value as the "strength" of each ship, which it is to some degree, but it also obscures that as it pushes large numbers of people to a smaller variety of builds.

All of the above is true!

On the other hand, the player base, especially the highly skilled ones that consistently place well, are ultimately significantly smarter than I am. Even if the Regional stats tracking or Math Wing would suggest a certain strategy / ship / etc is optimal, someone is going to figure out a better way eventually. Right now the meta is in an upheaval and is still digesting all the new stuff. It does look like Super Falcon and Super Phantoms are very powerful, but things should settle down a little after some more time.

That said, I have a minor update for the Philippines Regional. After the Final Cut to Top 4, they only had one round of elimination, to determine #1 and #2. The players then decided to not play the final match since it was late, and determined first place based on Strength of Schedule.

So SuperHan (or "Fat Han", whatever the name is) did not play against Whisper in a final match.

Quezon City, Philippines
July 27, 2014
Neutral Grounds Eton Centris

wave 4 legal

Attendance: 29

Format: 4 rounds of Swiss, Cut to Top 4. One elimination match to get #1 and #2, then winner declared by Strength of Schedule.

• Winner ( beat #2 by SoS ): Han Solo + Veteran Instincts + C-3P0 + Luke Skywalker + Engine Upgrade + Millennium Falcon; 2x Tala Sq. Pilot; Bandit Sq. Pilot
• 2nd place: Whisper + Veteran Instincts + Advanced Cloaking Device + Fire Control System; Howlrunner + Swarm Tactics + Hull Upgrade; 3x Academy Pilot
• Top 4 (lost to winner): Wedge + Swarm Tactics; Biggs; Gold Sq. Pilot + Ion Cannon Turret; Rookie Pilot
• Top 4 (lost to 2nd place): Krassis Trelix + Heavy Laser Cannon; Howlrunner + Stealth Device; 3x Academy Pilot
• #5: Han Solo + Veteran Instincts + Gunner; 4x Bandit Sq. Pilot
• #6: Corran Horn + Veteran Instincts + R2-D2 + Engine Upgrade + Fire Control System; Chewbacca + Predator + C-3P0 + Gunner + Millennnium Falcon
• #7: Krassis Trelix + Heavy Laser Cannon + Recon Specialist; 2x Royal Guard Pilot + Push the Limit + Targeting Computer
• #8: Echo + Advanced Cloaking Device + Veteran Instincts + Fire Control System; Darth Vader + Engine Upgrade; Soontir Fel + Push the Limit
• #9: Biggs; Tarn + R7; 2x Blue Sq. Pilot + Advanced Sensors

As soon as I saw the z95 (and c3p0) I called the yt1300 build w z95 mini swarm as completely broken and vorpal sword and major juggler argued with me saying statistically it was the same as Han shoots first.

Hm, I don't recall saying that they were statistically identical. Functionally they are similar, but I was on record very shortly after 3P0 was spoiled suggesting the "Fat Han" build (w/ PtL instead of Predator) that became very prevalent in the wave 4 Regionals:

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/102601-will-upcoming-releases-change-the-meta-philosophy/?p=1030640

I was certainly on record as Z's being very efficient, which is half of what is making the YT-1300 + 3P0 builds work so well now.

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/100360-using-lanchesters-square-law-to-predict-ships-jousting-values-and-fair-point-values-work-in-progress/?p=1111620

"Wait and see" - yeah, I usually take that approach pre-release unless something is a really strong outlier.

That said, on the immediate to-do list is:

• Update wave 3 statistics (FYI all the Spainish Regional results have been pulled in)
• Run the statistics with all squads weighted equally
• Run the statistics looking at only the winners
• ... and more.

Thanks for all the time and effort put into this.

No one is asking you to do this and yet you have. I appreciate it for one.

Statistics updates! I added a new weighting type to wave 4 statistics: tournament winners only. To-do:

1. Calculate and post stats for equal weighting
2. Calculate and post stats for conditional success: (weighted average) / (equal weighting).

Commentary on winners only statistics:

1. There are only 18 squads here, so the results are going to have a higher standard deviation than using a weighted average of all Final Cut + Top Third.
2. The only generic ships that are present are TIE Fighters, B-wings, and Z-95s. If you brought a generic pilot of any of the other 13 ships, then you did not win a wave 4 2014 Regionals that has been reported.
3. TIE Phantom + mini-swarm is the new dominant Imperial build.
4. YT-1300 + support is the new dominant Rebel build.

Here's the data. It's copied from the first page, which I will be updating and filling in with more information.

Wave 4 tournament statistics (last updated August 8th)

Only includes results for tournaments where wave 4 is legal.

Points 3 & 4 were pretty obvious already. Point 2 is disappointing, but makes sense because of Points 3 & 4.

As deadly as the ACD Phantom and Super Falcon builds are, I still probably would have been more likely to go to my regional if it had been after Wave 4 just so I could use the Predator card.

For details on the multi-column stats approach, see the post on the first page here:

http://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/105107-2014-regionals-results/?p=1066846

Wave 4 tournament statistics (last updated August 15th)

Only includes results for tournaments where wave 4 is legal.

Key statistics vs. different meta (last updated August 5)
Much more coming soon:

• More comprehensive statistics comparison
• 2013 Worlds Top 16 data
• 2014 Store Championships data
• Graphical form

Wave 3 statistics have been updated like the wave 4 statistics. They wouldn't all fit on one page so wave 4 stats got moved to the above post.

Now tracking 5 columns of statistics:

1. How often squads make it to Final Cut + Top Third
2. Weighted average of how well squads do (same method I have been using all along)
3. Winners-only statistics, weighted by attendance
4. Overall "efficiency": #2 divided by #1
5. Winning "efficiency": #3 divided by #1

I'm glad I got this started but MJ, you've taken it to the next next level! Thank you thank you thank you again.

Is there an consolidated spreadsheet of full, specific lists used as items, as opposed to macro usage stats? Keep opening excel files with percentages only that I can see....