Okay, so the Z-95 will come. And we know what the cheapest pilot (I assume) will be.
The generic Bandit squadron will have a 2/2/2/2 stat lineup with 2 PS and a missile icon, with Focus and TL as available actions. All for 12 points.
I know we don't know everything about add-on cards and we know nothing about its maneuvers yet, as well as named pilots.
But I am already a little concerned. The comparison for the cheap Z-95 to the Tie/Ln is evident. I know we can't always compare stuff ship to ship as different factions have different support for their ships. But nonetheless, a lot of players will take the Tie Fighter Academy pilot as the reference point to compare the Z-95, no way around that.
So let's compare:
You gain:
Target lock action.
2 Shields (1 overall hit point).
Missile symbol.
1 Pilot skill over the Academy Pilot
You lose:
1 Agility.
Evade Action.
Barrel roll Action.
Defense:
As far as I am concerned, I consider that a very bad trade for the Z-95.
Why? You gain 1 hitpoint and switch one for a shield. Not too shabby, but the Z-95 still loses a ton of survivability compared to the Tie. 3 agility with evade, or even with focus is really hard to touch even with 3 attack dice. While 2 agility is rather easy to overcome especially if only paired with focus. A lot of hitpoints mean nothing if you can not defend them properly with other stats. Without barrel roll, you also lack a very important tool to dodge fire arcs.
So if you ask me what ship is more durable. No question, it's the Tie.
Offense;
Now pretty much any other rebel ship trades defense for offense. But not the Z-95. TL with 2 attack dice does not make a ton of sense. The damage potential with Focus is about the same. Of course the Z-95 needs the TL to fire its missiles. To me, the missile symbol costing anything in a ships bar is a joke anyway. It offers an option, but no real benefit as it is. But if you wanna go swarmy, you won't take the missile anyway since a lot of them are overcosted as some people would agree. And for Pilot skill 2 it makes even less sense since you won't get that much opportunities to even fire the missiles. So the missile symbol is pretty much worthless on this ship and pilot.
The most important thing that we might want to look at although is the environment. Tie Fighters have Howlrunner. That is a huge buff to their damage potential. And since I don't expect any of the rebel ships to come to have a howlrunneresque ability, Z-95 swarms lose flat out on damage potential against imperial swarms. Okay we get Ethan, but his ability is not half as good as howlrunners for a 2 attack dice ship. And he is way too expensive for a swarm.
So for better offense, at best it is a tie for the Z-95. But if we consider Howl... yeah the Tie is better.
Maneuvers:
As already stated we know nothing about the dial. But considering the fluff, the Z-95 will be a lot slower and less nimble than a Tie/Ln. I would say it gets a wide array of 1 and 2 maneuvers, but no 5 straight. I don't know if it will get a 1 turn. Possible but not necessarily. so it might be possible to outmaneuver Ties at slow speeds, but I would not bet on this happening. Otherwise no idea on the number of green maneuvers for the Z-95. Perhaps this will be one of its strong points, perhaps not.
A huge disadvantage is of course the lack of barrel roll if compared to the Tie.
So I can't predict how this will go but I expect the Tie to come out on top in this category as well.
Pilots:
Most of the Tie Pilots are very strong picks. Howlrunner, Backstabber, Mithel, Curse... All very good if you know how to use them. As we don't know yet what pilots the Z-95 will have and what they do, I will make no prediction on this. But if they want to balance this in any way, I think they should add at least one named pilot at a usefulness level of Howlrunner at least, with some area of effect buff.
The 2 Pilot skill over the 1 of the Academy pilot could be considered a good thing. But since such cheap ships will get used a lot of times to block enemy ships, it is kind of a 2 edged knife...
New cards:
Well of course this is where the saving grace for this ship could come from. the Wingman card springs to the eye, even if we don't know what it does. Of course if it is useful to swarms, Tie swarms could potentially also just take it, except they made it Z-95 only.
The Ion pulse missile is nice and cheap, but even that will not get you killed a tie a lot faster (and still costs 3 points you lack in the end), it's very difficult to hit a tie even after he is ionized if you have 2 attack dice only.
All in all, I think they stuck to the fluff of the Z-95 pretty well, and I can see why they made it the way it is. But I have my strong doubts that it will be any competition for the Tie/Ln if there is not any yet unknown element, like a super powerful pilot or option card, or an epic good maneuver dial, that the Z-95 can rely on to make it more efficient. If there is nothing like that, I doubt we will see a lot of competitive rebel swarms in all honesty.
The case of the B-Wing gives me hope though. Before it came out, a lot of players on the forum where already saying it was overpriced and had nothing to offer. But oh were they wrong! The B-Wing is now well established, and one of the reasons for it is the advanced sensors card. I honestly hope that something similar will happen with the Z-95. A combo or card that nobody expects and that makes it a staple of the rebel fleet!
Edited by ForceM