No, I get that, but every time I hear some statistic or another, they just never seem to hold water.. I guess the standard deviation is the only thing I have ever seen..

Oh, and it's not that I don't believe in gravity, it's that I just know it works... and it works all the time... stats.. I'll need more convincing.. lol

It happens. Most of the events that we remember are the unlikely ones. In the 2013 Worlds Championship, there were several attack combinations (3 if I remember offhand) that had less than 2% or so chance of working out like they did (each). Yes, I did the math.

Another advantage the Interceptor has over the Fighter against a YT is that extra attack die gives one more chance for a crit, and against big ships, crits mean a lot. That's one more chance every turn to cause a Direct Hit, or Blinded Pilot, or something else to drop his combat effectiveness. Statistics can't account for everything .

I can run those numbers too.

Interesting!

On range 1 a greater quantity of TIE/ln of course beat a smaller number of Interceptors.

But on range 2? in range 3 the sqints may have an small advantage.

i think your math is wrong.

I wrote scripts to brute force the calculation. You are free to do the math yourself and check my results. If you think the math is wrong, then please provide your numbers and how you arrived at them. If you can't do that, then no offense intended, but you clearly don't know what you're talking about.

I don't mean to be rude, but you've shown none of your work either. Perhaps you've given it elsewhere, but we don't know if your script has an error or you've simply not accounted for something.

edit - also, more ships have greater combat effectiveness in every situation, so I'm not sure it's a very valuable conclusion.

edit - also, more ships have greater combat effectiveness in every situation, so I'm not sure it's a very valuable conclusion.

Why you don't just go with 6 Rebel Operatives then?

i think your math is wrong.

I wrote scripts to brute force the calculation. You are free to do the math yourself and check my results. If you think the math is wrong, then please provide your numbers and how you arrived at them. If you can't do that, then no offense intended, but you clearly don't know what you're talking about.

I don't mean to be rude, but you've shown none of your work either. Perhaps you've given it elsewhere, but we don't know if your script has an error or you've simply not accounted for something.

He's told you his formula and given the answers. If you doubt him run your own and show those numbers. If there is a discrepancy, then you can pull out the spreadsheets and compare.

Yep though I don't always agree with his conclusions, MajorJugglers statistical analysis seem correct. They don't always cover how easy it is to get in position to get the shot.. But in this case that is not necessary. And it's more or less telling us what everyone here knows either from just thinking about it, or from actually playing it. Without maneuvers the Interceptor has the exact same survivability as a standard TIE.. the only things that make it more survivable is it's hard to get a shot on it due to it's maneuverability and that is can do a lot of damage so can take out a target sometimes before it gets a shot back.. NEITHER of these are a factor with the YT-1300 as it a) has so many shields you won't take it out before it gets a shot back, b) you can't get in it's blind side as it has none.

Back on topic here:

The new Aces for the Imperials are all very cool... but for the 181st pilots both just got crazy cool maneuverability abilities that don't actually help the interceptor compete. You just made the most maneuverable ship (yes, more than an awing, and rightly so for more points) even more maneuverable. Lorrir gets a shot where before most interceptors wouldn't with his angled barrelrolls. Cowall gets to Kturn closer to the action after seeing where people end up and an extra point of PS to make it more worthwhile but these are really niche benefits. Lorrir's is more useful often but without PTL not really. Of course new ships could make some of these abilities more useful.

The royal guards are pretty heavy hitters as long as they stay alive... great... but interceptors are already tricky to keep alive, especially in a world with more and more turrets. I think Jax is just going to have too big a target on him to make a splash unless you can also keep target locks off him; Kagi might work but that's an expensive combo. I think Kir is the winner of the bunch. The imperials will soon be able to both pack a strong alpha strike and follow it up with 2 ships that do "auto-damage"; Vader shuttle + Kir after an alpha strike will be a thing.

Love the interceptors, love love love em. Will keep flying them and enjoy the grief they cause in causal games... until the meta shifts they won't impact competitive play... at least not in any great numbers.

Honestly, the potential of Lorrir didn't really hit me until I realized I could reverse the template. Lorrir's strength will be his approach. I expect him to be a bit of a lone wolf, approaching from the sides.

Yep though I don't always agree with his conclusions, MajorJugglers statistical analysis seem correct. They don't always cover how easy it is to get in position to get the shot.. But in this case that is not necessary.

Thanks. Yeah, the statistical side of analysis is only that - just the stats.

Love the interceptors, love love love em. Will keep flying them and enjoy the grief they cause in causal games... until the meta shifts they won't impact competitive play... at least not in any great numbers.

I can't agree more!

I don't mean to be rude, but you've shown none of your work either. Perhaps you've given it elsewhere, but we don't know if your script has an error or you've simply not accounted for something.

I haven't given it elsewhere. I don't mind posting the code as a community service, so here are the pertinent subroutines as they stand now. There is more that I want to add to them later, but they should be correct as is. It's written in MATLAB, so unless you have a license ($3000 professional, $100 student) you would have to convert it to a different language to run it.

Overall summary: I use brute force rather than binomial distribution and convolution, since I am considering the effects of more than 2 kinds of result rolls, particularly if I care about critical hits (which aren't fully stitched in yet), or multiple attacks landing on 1 defender who has a focus token at the start.

For single attacks I call everything from the DamageProbability subroutine. For multiple attacks on the same target in the same turn, I call FocusFire. Stealth Device isn't implemented yet. Both return a PDF in the form of a matrix. From there you can get the CDF, expected value, standard deviation, etc.

I think I grabbed all the needed subroutines. Enjoy.

function TotalDamageMatrix = FocusFire(HitProbability, DefenseDice, DefenseFocus, FreeEyeToEvade)

if iscell(HitProbability)

NumAttacks = size(HitProbability,2);

TotalDice = 0;

for i = 1:NumAttacks

TotalDice = TotalDice + size(HitProbability{i},2)-1;

end

else

NumAttacks = 1;

TotalDice = size(HitProbability,2)-1;

end

TotalDamageMatrix = zeros(2,TotalDice+1);

TotalDamageMatrix(1+DefenseFocus,1) = 1;

TotalDiceRolled = 0;

for i = 1:NumAttacks

if iscell(HitProbability)

DiceRolled = size(HitProbability{i},2)-1;

SingleAttackProb = HitProbability{i};

else

DiceRolled = size(HitProbability,2)-1;

SingleAttackProb = HitProbability;

end

% This code supports some attacks to give range 3 bonus, must be

% coded into Defense as cell data per each attack

if iscell(DefenseDice)

Defense = DefenseDice{i};

else

Defense = DefenseDice;

end

% calculate one-shot damage matrix with no defensive focus available

AttackDamageMatrix{1} = DamageProbability(SingleAttackProb, Defense, 0, FreeEyeToEvade); %#ok<AGROW>

% calculate one-shot damage matrix with defensive focus available

AttackDamageMatrix{2} = DamageProbability(SingleAttackProb, Defense, 1, FreeEyeToEvade); %#ok<AGROW>

% reinitialize damage counter for this round

NewDamageMatrix = zeros(2,TotalDice+1);

for f = 1:2

for j = 1:TotalDiceRolled+1

NewDamageMatrix(:,j:j+DiceRolled) = NewDamageMatrix(:,j:j+DiceRolled) + AttackDamageMatrix{f}*TotalDamageMatrix(f,j);

end

end

TotalDiceRolled = TotalDiceRolled + DiceRolled;

TotalDamageMatrix = NewDamageMatrix;

end

end

function DamageMatrix = DamageProbability(HitProbability, DefenseDice, DefenseFocus, FreeEyeToEvade)

if DefenseFocus > 0

DefenseFocus = 1;

else

DefenseFocus = 0;

end

% indexing: DamageMatrix(DefenseFocusLeft, Damage)

% get the defense probability matrix for rolling all the dice once

% indexing: DefenseRollMatrix(Evade, Focus, Blank)

DefenseRollMatrix = DefenseRoller(DefenseDice);

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

% compare attack vs. defense

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

DamageMatrix = zeros(2,size(HitProbability,2));

% first go through all possible hit probabilities

for NumHits = 0:size(HitProbability,2)-1

% now go through all possible defensive rolls

for NumEvades = 0:DefenseDice

for NumEyes = 0:(DefenseDice - NumEvades)

NumBlanks = DefenseDice - (NumEvades + NumEyes);

Probability = HitProbability(NumHits+1)*DefenseRollMatrix(NumEvades+1, NumEyes+1, NumBlanks+1);

% first use free ability to automatically change eyeballs to evades if possible

NetEvades = NumEvades + min(FreeEyeToEvade,NumEyes);

NetEyes = NumEyes - min(FreeEyeToEvade,NumEyes);

if (NumHits > NetEvades) && (DefenseFocus > 0) && (NetEyes > 0)

% defender spends focus

Damage = max(NumHits - (NetEvades + NetEyes), 0);

DamageMatrix(1, Damage+1) = DamageMatrix(1, Damage+1) + Probability;

else

% defender does not spend focus

Damage = max(NumHits - NetEvades, 0);

DamageMatrix(DefenseFocus+1, Damage+1) = DamageMatrix(DefenseFocus+1, Damage+1) + Probability;

end

end

end

end

end

function RollMatrix = DefenseRoller(DefenseDice)

RollMatrix = zeros(DefenseDice+1, DefenseDice+1, DefenseDice+1);

RollMatrix(1,1,1) = 1;

EvadeSides = 3;

FocusSides = 2;

BlankSides = 3;

% indexing: RollMatrix(Evade, Focus, Blank)

% RollMatrix = zeros(DefenseDice+1, DefenseDice+1, DefenseDice+1);

% RollMatrix(1,1,1) = 1;

DiceRolled = 0;

while (DiceRolled < DefenseDice)

for NumEvades = 0:DefenseDice

for NumEyes = 0:(DiceRolled - NumEvades)

for NumBlanks = 0:(DiceRolled - (NumEvades + NumEyes))

CellProbability = RollMatrix(NumEvades + 1, NumEyes + 1, NumBlanks + 1);

if CellProbability > 0

RollMatrix(NumEvades + 2, NumEyes + 1, NumBlanks + 1) = RollMatrix(NumEvades + 2, NumEyes + 1, NumBlanks + 1) + CellProbability*EvadeSides/8;

RollMatrix(NumEvades + 1, NumEyes + 2, NumBlanks + 1) = RollMatrix(NumEvades + 1, NumEyes + 2, NumBlanks + 1) + CellProbability*FocusSides/8;

RollMatrix(NumEvades + 1, NumEyes + 1, NumBlanks + 2) = RollMatrix(NumEvades + 1, NumEyes + 1, NumBlanks + 2) + CellProbability*BlankSides/8;

RollMatrix(NumEvades + 1, NumEyes + 1, NumBlanks + 1) = 0;

end

end

end

end

DiceRolled = DiceRolled + 1;

end

end

function [HitProbability HitMatrix] = HitCalculator(AttackDice, TargetLock, FocusTokens, FreeBlankToHit, FreeBlankToEye, FreeEyeToHit, FreeRerolls, FreeHits)

if iscell(FreeEyeToHit)

Temp = FreeEyeToHit;

FreeEyeToHit = Temp{1};

FreeEyeToCrit = Temp{2};

else

FreeEyeToCrit = 0;

end

% calculate how many die may be rerolled

if iscell(FreeRerolls)

MaxRerolls = FreeRerolls{1};

FreeBlankRerolls = FreeRerolls{2};

else

MaxRerolls = FreeRerolls;

FreeBlankRerolls = 0;

end

if TargetLock > 0

MaxRerolls = AttackDice;

end

% how many eyes can be turned to crits

MaxEyeToCrit = min(FreeEyeToCrit, AttackDice);

% how many Eyes can be turned into hits

if FocusTokens > 0

MaxEyeToHit = AttackDice;

else

MaxEyeToHit = FreeEyeToHit;

end

% initiate Roll Matrix

% indexing: RollMatrix(Crit, Hit, Focus, Blank)

RollMatrix = zeros(AttackDice+1, AttackDice+1, AttackDice+1, AttackDice+1);

RollMatrix(1,1,1,1) = 1;

% get the probability matrix for rolling all the dice once

RollMatrix = AttackRoller(RollMatrix);

% Initialize the reroll probability matrix as the first rolled matrix

RerollMatrix = RollMatrix;

% make a decision about rerolling each die.

% Need to evaluate every possible outcome individually

if MaxRerolls > 0 || FreeBlankRerolls > 0

for NumCrits = 0:AttackDice

for NumHits = 0:(AttackDice - NumCrits)

for NumEyes = 0:(AttackDice - (NumCrits + NumHits))

NumBlanks = AttackDice - (NumCrits + NumHits + NumEyes);

if MaxEyeToHit > 0

% leave as few "dead" eyes as possible

DeadEyes = max(NumEyes - MaxEyeToHit, 0);

UsedEyeToHit = NumEyes - DeadEyes;

% blanks unable to turn directly into hits, OR Eyes that can be turned into hits are dead

BlanksIntoEyeballs = min(NumBlanks, min(FreeBlankToEye, MaxEyeToHit - UsedEyeToHit));

BlanksIntoHits = min(NumBlanks, FreeBlankToHit);

DeadBlanks = max(NumBlanks - BlanksIntoHits - BlanksIntoEyeballs, 0);

else

% no focus tokens etc

DeadEyes = NumEyes; % all eyes are dead

DeadBlanks = max(NumBlanks - FreeBlankToHit, 0); % blanks unable to turn directly into hits are dead

end

% reroll as many dead blanks as possible

MaxBlankRerolls = min(MaxRerolls + FreeBlankRerolls, AttackDice);

RerollBlanks = min(DeadBlanks, MaxBlankRerolls); % note: MaxRerolls >= RerollBlanks

% now reroll as many dead eyes as possible

RerollEyes = min(DeadEyes, max(MaxRerolls - RerollBlanks, 0));

% if rerolling any dice, remove all possible dice and update reroll probability matrix

if RerollBlanks + RerollEyes > 0

CellProbability = RollMatrix(NumCrits + 1, NumHits + 1, NumEyes + 1, NumBlanks + 1);

RerollMatrix(NumCrits + 1, NumHits + 1, NumEyes + 1 - RerollEyes, NumBlanks + 1 - RerollBlanks) = RerollMatrix(NumCrits + 1, NumHits + 1, NumEyes + 1 - RerollEyes, NumBlanks + 1 - RerollBlanks) + CellProbability;

RerollMatrix(NumCrits + 1, NumHits + 1, NumEyes + 1, NumBlanks + 1) = 0;

end

end

end

end

% Reroll the dice

RerollMatrix = AttackRoller(RerollMatrix);

end

% Now apply dice changes to each result

% tabulate the results in the HitMatrix; indexing: HitMatrix(Crit, Hit)

HitMatrix = zeros(AttackDice+1, AttackDice+1);

HitProbability = zeros(1,AttackDice+1);

for NumCrits = 0:AttackDice

for NumHits = 0:(AttackDice - NumCrits)

for NumEyes = 0:(AttackDice - (NumCrits + NumHits))

NumBlanks = AttackDice - (NumCrits + NumHits + NumEyes);

% turn blanks directly into hits

Blanks = max(NumBlanks - FreeBlankToHit, 0); % reduce the number of blanks

Hits = NumHits + (NumBlanks - Blanks); % increase the number of hits

% turn blanks into eyes

Eyes = NumEyes + min(Blanks, FreeBlankToEye); % increase the number of eyes

% turn focus into hits

Hits = Hits + min(MaxEyeToHit, Eyes); % add to the number of hits

% now record the number of hits and critical hits

CellProbability = RerollMatrix(NumCrits + 1, NumHits + 1, NumEyes + 1, NumBlanks + 1);

% 2D matrix of crits and hits

HitMatrix(NumCrits + 1, Hits + 1) = HitMatrix(NumCrits + 1, Hits + 1)+ CellProbability;

% 1D matrix of total hits

HitProbability(NumCrits + Hits + 1) = HitProbability(NumCrits + Hits + 1) + CellProbability;

end

end

end

while(FreeHits>0)

HitProbability = [0 HitProbability]; %#ok<AGROW>

FreeHits = FreeHits - 1;

end

end

The extra damage makes very little difference to survivability due to the huge amount of Hull and Shields the YT has. It doesn't matter how much damage a ship does until that magic number is reached as the YTs combat effectiveness does not go down as it takes damage

The YT doesn't fit in with the dog fighting gamplay format. It just plows through the table destroying everything in its path. It takes minimal skill and strategy to play. Broken.

Its a f r eighter and an iconic, one to boot! It has twice the firepower of an X-wing (not in-game but in-universe), is one of the fastest ships out there and is a magnitude more massive than a snubfighter and has upgraded shields compared to any fighters (more powerful reactor/power plant + more powerful shield generators) AND it is a hero ship. There is no way the MF should be any weaker in game (the stock YT = ORS and is weaker). My only gripe about the YT-1300 is its maneuver dial, which I think is pretty amazing for a freighter. However, the source material does show it demonstrating some pretty amazing feats of maneuverability. All together, I think FFG did a pretty good job translating into the game. If the MF wasn't that fast, maneuverable, powerful, resilient then why would Lando Calrissian have chosen it as a command ship for the strike on DSII? Any ship that can maneuver inside a space station is pretty **** maneuverable!

Chris

The Falcon could even take a direct turbolaser hit and shields are still stable.

Notice how the sheer mass of a turbolaser bolt shakes the falcon.

I really want to know how turbolasers are transferred into the game.

Notice how the sheer mass of a turbolaser bolt shakes the falcon.

I really want to know how turbolasers are transferred into the game.

If it didn't outright destroy you I would say it would cause 1 stress or Change 1 Hit to a Critical and the attacker gets to Barrel Roll or Boost their target 1Straight away from the firing ship.

Someone would have been in big trouble had that blast destroyed the Falcon. Awesome gif by the way, strangely hypnotic.

True. They should have used their ion cannons instead of the turbo lasers ...

I dunno guys, the more i look at Lorrir the more i feel he is very underwhelming, he gets no EPU and his ability is just a standard Tie ability with an added option but that comes with a cost of a stress, imo they should have not tacked on that stress, and at PS 5 i think a Sabre with PTL is a better buy.

Lorrir's ability is much, much stronger than Barrel Roll, even a Boost/Barrel Roll combo with PTL. He is going to sneak out of and into so many firing arcs. He is favorite pilot of the set.

I can't wait for these to come out, aside from the shuttles, squints are my other love. The slowest and the fastest, can't wait for more variety for joint operations.

Yes, all four pilots will be fun to fly. Imperial Aces is turning into a must have for any imperial player. And, with the Push The Limit cards, these players won't need near as many Rebel expansions to get where they want.

Are we getting two Push The Limit cards in this expansion? I know the pictures we've got one card that is turned face down so I'm hoping it's a second PTL.

Yes. All the upgrades come with 2.

Yes. All the upgrades come with 2.

Well well well... this might just be another "I need to get me two of these puppies" after all.

The extra damage makes very little difference to survivability due to the huge amount of Hull and Shields the YT has. It doesn't matter how much damage a ship does until that magic number is reached as the YTs combat effectiveness does not go down as it takes damage

The YT doesn't fit in with the dog fighting gamplay format. It just plows through the table destroying everything in its path. It takes minimal skill and strategy to play. Broken.

Good point, as the YT-1300 has 360-degree fire even without adding crew members. In A New Hope , Chewie flew the Falcon while Han and Luke manned the guns. In Return of the Jedi , it seemed to be using its guns in a fixed forward arc, which struck me as odd since it was clearly carrying extra crew.

The extra damage makes very little difference to survivability due to the huge amount of Hull and Shields the YT has. It doesn't matter how much damage a ship does until that magic number is reached as the YTs combat effectiveness does not go down as it takes damage

The YT doesn't fit in with the dog fighting gamplay format. It just plows through the table destroying everything in its path. It takes minimal skill and strategy to play. Broken.

In Return of the Jedi , it seemed to be using its guns in a fixed forward arc, which struck me as odd since it was clearly carrying extra crew.

The Lando-Nien Nunb-Elusiveness configuration

Well... I am very glad this thread came along. I am interested in all of the strategies being discussed, but more importantly... I HAVE BEEN USING BARREL ROLL WRONG ALL THIS TIME!

I was only using the image in the rules as a guide. I would not position the 1 range guide anywhere along the side of the base. I would go only from the front of the base to the back of the base.

This should help my gameplay a bit!