What a great final!!

Definitely make me want to play more B-wings

The first round dice rolls were crazy for both players. I wrote a MATLAB script to do statistical analysis to get exact damage probability density functions, which also gives you the average expected damage. It allows for multiple ships focus firing on a single target, and allows the defender to carry the focus token through multiple attacks until it needs to be used. It is an exhaustive algorithm covering all possible outcomes, not a Monte Carlo simulation, so the results are exact, although I don't yet consider critical hit damage.

I ran the first round of the 2013 Finals through it to see exactly how unlikely these rolls were. Non-technical summary:

Round 1

---Expected Imperial results---

B-Wing: 3.12 damage

Biggs: 1.35 damage

Total: 4.47 damage

Actual: 0 B-Wing, 5 Biggs, difference = +0.53

So, the TIE Swarm got 5 hits, and the expected number of hits was 4.5. So while the overall number of hits was only slightly over average, he got lucky in that they all hit Biggs and killed him in one round.

---Expected Rebel results---

Dark Curse: 0.499 damage

Academy #15: 1.55 damage

Total: 2.05 damage

Actual: 3 Dark Curse, 1 Academy, difference = +1.95

On the rebel side, he got 2 more hits on the imperials than he was expected to, and it also focus fired down Dark Curse.

So, both players got lucky in that their shots focus fired down one ship (which is the optimal way to deal damage), but the rebel player got luckier by about one and a half damage.

Interesting factoids:

The imperials only had a 1.246% chance of killing Biggs (4 attacks w/ 2 dice + focus + 1 reroll @ range3 through a rock, one focus token on Biggs).

Biggs only had a 1.91% chance of one-shotting Dark Curse.

Of course, we all know there is "no such thing as luck"...

The Force was strong with this one.

(edited for factoids)