Decent coverage, Ravncat, but I'd contradict one and add a few:
- You can't know what the past maneuver was. That would be memory, which is explicitly disallowed by KO's position.
- Even if you did know the maneuver, you couldn't guarantee that ships with a stress got it from a maneuver rather than from shooting the Captive, because of Adrenaline Rush (discarded after use, so no longer part of the game).
- Yorr, who I include mainly because shoehorning him into this discussion is the best use I've found for him yet
I agree you could make a pretty good guess, and it makes a decently fun brain teaser, but a pretty good guess isn't good enough for the rules engine. It deals in absolutes. And if it can't make that absolute determination based on the current game state, it MUST be capable of looking to historical elements.