Due to the 3 successes per dice for attacker vs 2 successes for defender (w/o cards).

For example in a siege with 5 attacking armies vs. 4 defending on a 3-power province with a fort, a chance to win as a defender is just 16% (averaged from 100k combat simulations).

5 attackers vs 5 defenders on a 4 province (maximum possible defence), gives a 30% chance for the defender, and 26% if there is no fort.

What do you think?

Strategy Cards, Kingdom Cards etc.

You need to really plan ahead and anticipate if you're gonna be attacked, and stack up on these kinds of cards.

Though, I'll only say one thing: Turanian Immortals , nothing like 'em.

Also, ties go to the defender. I don't know how that adds statistically. Also, defender keeps rolling at least the province's strength while defender can go down to two or even one die.

What ends up happening in my games is that the attrition files away a big chunk of the attacker's army. Even if he/she wins the conflict and takes the province from me, he/she'll be very weak and prone to attack from adjacent provinces.

The thing is if you want to capture territory, you have to engage in pvp combat and win an intrigue contest! Barf! Can you imagine the disincentive if the attacker didn't have an edge?

Disclaimer - I have only played this once. It was a 2 player unfinished learning game, and this was years ago when the game was new. We haven't played since. Not because we disliked the game - I just have so many games on my shelf, and so few opponents who are into empire building games. Hopefully as hype builds for the movie I can drum up some interest and get some sessions happening.

But the one thing I really disliked was this strenuous process of pvp conquest. It seemed like the design was intentionally discouraging pvp aggression. It felt like the game was awkwardly pushing to be a friendlier, "Euro" style game. We didn't finish the 2nd era, plus there were only 2 of us. Maybe in a full game by the 3rd turn the board is so crowded that play becomes very aggressive regardless?