Is it better for an X-Wing to take a target lock (re-roll any attack dice) or a Focus (all eyes become hits) action?

When I was at range 1 with Luke I decided to take a Target Lock action instead of a Focus on a Tie. I figured I technically could get to roll 8 dice and take only the hits. Was I thinking correctly? A focus is only 2/8 per die. A hit is 4/8.

What is the best move statistically?

Both! Okay, that won't always happen, but if you can, try to get a target lock and use it with a focus the following turn.

I haven't worked out the statistics yet.

Budgernaut said:

If I can help it, which I usually can, I try not to use my Target Lock/Torpedoes/Missiles unless I have a focus token or Marksmanship. Much better chance to hit.

Roy

Your math isn't quite right, but I think target lock will end up better. Target lock doesn't give you 8 rolls, since you only will reroll non-hits (unless you're really desperate for a critical hit). Somebody has the math worked out somewhere… and I seem to remember target lock was a little better, but I don't remember where that was to go check my memory.

Okay, you ideally want 3 attack dice from your X-wing, right? If you take Focus, you have (6/8) * 3 = 18/24 = 75% chance of getting 3 hits.

If you go with Target Lock, I don't know if my math is right, but it seems that you have a 50% chance to hit and 50% chance not to hit. Okay, so let's focus on the rerolls. You want to know the chance of rolling a hit after rolling a blank or focus. So the chance of rolling focus/blank is 50% and the chance of rolling a hit is 50%, so multiplying those together, you get 25%. So I think -- and I could be mistaken -- that you add the 25% to the chance of getting hit in the first place, which is 50%, so that in the end, you have the same chances with Target Lock as you do with Focus.

I love probabilities, but I'm a little out of practice. Can anyone confirm it's 75% chance to hit with either?

Budgernaut said:

The odds of 3 hits from 3 dice with focus would actually be (6/8)^3 or 42%

The odds of 3 hits from 3 dice with target lock becomes much more complicated.

Probabilities aside, I'd rather take the lock in most cases. Assuming I know the Focus would be committed offensively that is. Two reasons: 1) Target lock lets me affect a wider net of dice, both focus and blank results. 2) of that broader pool of results to affect, I have a better potential output of damage because I can create crits as well as hits. So, unless maybe I'm just trying to make sure I get that one last hit in to finish something off (and probably even then). I'd rather take the lock. But that's just me. My simple view of things: Evade = best defensive option, Target Lock = Best offensive option, Focus = most flexible option.

Here is my theory. Focus when you are within range one. This gives you an extra dice and a better chance to shut them down if you get a mix of hits and eyes. However, if you are at range 3, target lock, and DO NOT SPEND IT THAT TURN. Also Target lock if you are not in firing range of them, and save it. Patience is a virtue. At range 2, depending on where your enemies are, focus or target lock, really your choice.

Target lock is usually my first choice, but I'll consider a focus token if I think I need extra defense that round.

dbmeboy said:

True. I suppose I was calculating per dice. If it's 75% per dice, you're right that it's about 42% chance of success for focus for three dice. I maintain that it would still be 75% per dice or 42% for three dice using Target Lock as well.

I've run the numbers. Statistically (excluding criticals) they are exactly the same.

Here's a quick sample. Let's say you are rolling two dice.

With focus, the chance they are both hits is 6/8 * 6/8 = 36/64 (that's an easy calculation - 4 sides are hits and 2 sides are focus - so 6 sides are good results)

Now, with target lock

First, the chance they are both hits to start = 4/8 * 4/8 = 16/64 = 1/4

But, what if the first roll doesn't hit. There are two options,

The first roll is all misses, then the reroll is all hits = 4/8 * 4/8 (misses) * 4/8 * 4/8 = 1/16

But, if the first roll is one hit and one miss, or one miss and one hit, then 4/8 (hit) * 4/8 (miss) * 4/8 (reroll hits) 1/8 x 2 = 1/4

Thus the total for target lock is 1/4 + 1/16 + 1/4 = 4/16 + 1/16 + 4/16 = 9/16 = 36/64

Exactly the same. Here are ALL the stats….

Hard to follow, I know. But it works. No matter how many dice you roll. And I calculated all the options. Listed here

http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/856660/all-the-stats-expected-damage

Enjoy

Thanks, TnT!

Now, back to the general discussion, the rule of thumb to remember with probabilities is that if you use the word OR, you add probabilities. If you use the word AND, you multiply probabilities. In the case of rerolls, you will roll a hit, OR you will roll a miss AND a hit. So you take the probability of rolling a hit (50%) and add that to the probability of rolling a miss then a hit (50% * 50%).

.5 + (.5 * .5) = .75

Now if you have multiple dice, you just take the probability to the same power as you have dice. So if you have 3 dice, you take .75 * .75 * .75.
So what if you have both Target Lock and Focus? You now have a 75% chance of hitting with each dice, but a 25% to miss. Using our formula,

.75 + (.25 * .75) = .9375.

A whopping 93% chance to hit when combining Focus with Target Lock!

TnT said:

Good idea, jumping down to two dice for the explanation. I started doing it with 3 and realized it would be more complicated than I wanted to type out so I never figured the numbers. Interesting result…

This is great! To sum up:

Target lock or Focus = 75% to hit

• Benefit of Target Lock, slightly better chance of critical, if you don't use it will stay on target.
• Benefit of Focus, can be used on defence as well as offence

Taget with Focus = 93% to hit