When do people think the next Deluxe Expansion will be coming out? My guess is not until early 2013. It looks like the last adventure pack for the Darrowdelf cycle will be out in July. The Hobbit part 1 is coming in Q3 so that likely means August or September and then Hobbit part 2 in Q4 so likely November or December to conincide with the movie release. Then next deluxe expansion in late January or early February.

As much as I'd like to see the next Deluxe Expansion come out in parallel to the Hobbit I think it might be stretching their design team thin and also might detract from Hobbit sales. FFG is also doing a major redesign of the Star Wars LCG and trying to get that out in Q4 so I expect that is taking up a lot of their LCG design team's focus.

It does seem like a stretch to have the Saga Expansion and a Deluxe Expansion. My guess is that they won't. However, I have always thought that Deluxe Expansions are more important to this game than to other lcg's. They set the tone for the upcoming cycle and in practical terms their encounter decks are put to use in the APs. Every AP brings 32 encounter deck cards. There probably isn't room for much more. Can all APs be viable with just 32 cards in the encounter without the help of the Deluxe sets? Maybe, maybe not. I wonder what plans they have to pull that one off.

I don't see how they could sustain the model without releasing monthly AP during the second half of the year.

Deluxe expansions are nice, but the regular AP are what keeps us buzzing around, waiting for previews and upcoming stuff.

I agree they probably won't release any other deluxe expansion (like KD) this year with the scheduled 2 Saga expansion, but we should still see a 3rd cycle coming up. Maybe one that will make use of only the Core Set encounter cards (to keep promoting sales of the Core Set and renewing the fan-base of the game) or others that would use encounters from both Core and KD (until now, Dwarrowdelf has only used cards from the AP and KD... since we're now going underground after beating the Watcher, it could be that core encounters won't see play at all in the Dwarrowdelf cycle).

I think it will interesting to see what they preview or have available at GenCon in August. My guess is that the Saga expansion will be previewed or released there. The second Saga expansion will probably not be available in December. I also wonder if some of the orginal core set cards may be reprinted in the Saga expansion to some degree. I certainly do not expect a Deluxe expansion this year in light of the Saga expansions.

As far as adventure packs, I would not be surprised to see them slow down or stretch out the release of the remainder of the current cycle. I hope that is not the case but again, I would not be surprised.

SiCK_Boy said:

I'd still be surprised if they release a new AP cycle this year, I think they will have their hands full with just the 2 Hobbit saga expansions in the second half of the year. But if they do release one (which I hope they do) then I think it would use the encounter decks from the Hobbit saga expansions assuming that not all of the encounter sets in it have effects tied to the specifics of the Hobbit mechanics (e.g. treasures and Baggins sphere). All of the AP cycles seem centered around a specific theme and I don't think they would reuse the Core set or KD. Also, with the movie buzz it makes sense they would continue to focus on Hobbits for a theme.

AP Cycles and Deluxe expansions are in development and released simultaneously all the time based on what I've seen from FFG popular titles. What I do not foresee is a deluxe expansion in addition to these Saga Expansions. I suspect the AP cycles to continue at the normal pace of release with possibly an additional week or 2 between them.

I find it very difficult to see exactly what will happen with this. Past logic would dictate that Dwarrowdelf needs to be "finished off" with a deluxe expansion that springboards us into Cycle 3, but instead we've been shown these Saga Expansions, which seem to be completely stand-alone, or at least that's the impression I get from them. This whole Hobbit thing seems to be quite the event for the game, and I feel the encounter decks released with it are going to be solely for the quests contained within. Possibly re-using some of the core set encounter sets. But definitely "special".

Anyway. As a springboard for Cycle 3, then, the Saga Expansions don't, for me, cut the mustard. Which would lead me to believe there will be that deluxe expansion at the end of the Dwarrowdelf. But releasing two deluxe expansions for the same game in the same quarter seems a little too money-grabbing for me to believe it'd be true. Which means we're going to get:
1) a cycle of adventure packs that utilize the Hobbit expanions' encounter sets; or
2) a cycle of adventure packs that continue to utilize the core set and Khazad dum encounter sets; or
3) 2012 will be finished off by two Saga Expansions, one in each of the final two quarters, and that will be all.

While it's true what Bomb says about deluxe expansions and the smaller counterparts are released simultaneously for other LCGs (I've cited Lions of the Rock coming between packs 4 and 5 of A Time of Trials cycle for AGoT many times), the relationship between deluxe expansions and the adventure packs in LotR is a lot more formulated than in those other games. We need the deluxe pack to come before the adventure pack cycle in this game, whereas in the others you pretty much feel like a deluxe pack is just three smaller packs in one box.

The encounter cards we've seen so far seem to show, as RGun says, they are tightly bound into this Hobbit game and its Baggins sphere, which we've now been told will only be used in these two expansions, which at first glance might preclude (1) from happening. But these cards may belong to specific encounter sets that will remain peculiar to the expansion only, with more sets in the box that are less specific. The Escape from Dol Guldur set from the core set, for example, has only been used in that one scenario, and I strongly suspect Flight from Moria will remain the same for Khazad dum (along with some others).

For my part, then, I favour idea (3), with a more regular, deluxe expansion kicking off both 2013 and Cycle 3.

My supplier say Hobbit come in July.