Apophenia said:
Actually if you take a Mulligan and place 3 cards during setup your percentage of drawing at least one Bastard would be 65.4%
(There is a 31.5% chance of drawing one in your starting hand or in your Mulligan and a 26.2% chance of drawing one in your next 5 cards)
Yeah, youre right. I forgot that you only get another 7 cards to look at per mulligan, not 7+3+2.
31.5% chance of getting one in the first 7 cards
54% chance of getting one by your mulligan
65.5% chance of getting one if you flop 3 and draw 2.
71.5% chance of getting one if you play counting favors.