My players are good, strategists and planners, comes from over 20 years of gaming experience in various genres. I am playing OL against the four of them. I chose the "Eternal Night" plot and am using the Beastman Lord Avatar. End of game one I did well eneogh (lucky draw on the last dungeon) and got six hero kills giving me 20 CT after the first dungeon, a little less than the players who got lucky in the CT dept. but unlucky in the Copper Chest Draws. Eight weeks have passed (the players just ended their 8th week with a visit in Dawnsmoor). Heroes are Grey Ker, Nanok, Runemaster Thorn & Silhouette. (note: even though I listed my turns second in the weeks below, they did go off when appropriate in the order set under the rules, upgrades and Lt moves first)
Week one: (no encounters) Heroes do all 3 levels of Starfall Forest (#4 The Bridge of Death, #8 The Warrens, #42 The Secret Garden) ending in Tamalir, I move a Lt to Vynelvale OL CT 20/Hero CT 23 (6 hero deaths, all but one in #42)
Week two: Heroes train in Skill and Dice Upgrades, I move Lt to Guardian Hills OL CT 21/Hero CT 23
Week three: (no encounters) Heroes move to and do all 3 levels of Thelsvan Highway (#7 The Graveyard, #32 Up & Down, #5 The Barracks) ending there, I move Lt to Mountains of Despair. OL CT 22/Hero CT 54
Week four: one encounter (cakewalk for heroes) ends with visit in Riverwatch, I move Lt to Smokblue Hills OL CT 23/Hero CT 54
At this point the Heroes payed attention to the Lt's moves and realized I was heading for Dawnsmoor to Raze it, realizing they needed the boat for water trails to stop me they bought it, their plan, go to Moonglow Marsh, complete it and then come back in Tamilir and catch my Lt before he could do much to siege. Realizing their tactic I decided to wait keeping him on Smokblue hills to support the Moonglow Marsh dungeon.
Week five: Heroes train in Skill upgrades and buy their first rumor ($2000 reward Belly of the Beast), Lt waits. OL CT 24/Hero CT 54
Week six: one encounter (cakewalked). Heroes using boat move to Moonglow Marsh and cakewalk it (#12 The Throne Room, #2 Alchemists Lab, #11 The Mine), all three levels ending their turn in Tamalir, even with a Lts rienforcement of "Doom" in play... "powerful bonus" my @$$ though it was nice to have the extra power card... I guess... OL CT 25, Hero CT 74
Week seven: Heroes train in Dice and Skill upgrades, I move Lt to Bitter Downs and upgrade Humanoid monster class to Silver (first upgrade) Heroes also decide at this point to buy the two trails upgrade so they can catch Lts.
Week eight: (no encounters) Heroes move to and do all three levels of Blackwing Swamp (which is their Rumor dungeon location) on the way to intercept the Lt at Dawnsmoor (#17 Bag of Bones, #33 Down the Drain, and Rumor #2 Belly of the Beast)... and almost cakewalk it. Even with the silver upgrade in Humanoid (which was the largest creature percentage in the last level of the dungeon). I managed to get one Hero death (Thorn for 2 and I didn't even know that I'd have killed him when I attacked, kinda ignore him since he's only 2 CT for the OL unless he's easily vulnerable, rarely...). Players end with a visit week in Dawnsmoor (Thorn complaining loudly about nothing here for his character). I move Lt to Misty Plains.
Week nine: I retreat Lt to Bitter Downs... not sure what to do at this point, the Heroes plan on trying to kill the Lt before going to Olmric's Hut (though I do have a strategy to just flee him back to Applewood Forest my OL Avatar Keep when the players attempt to attack him if things look like they'll go badly for him). The current final tally of CT stands at Heroes 99/ OL 29 with 4 left over to spend (two turns till I can add a second Lt unless I can squeeze in a lucky kill...) The heroes now have the boat and two trails upgrades, 8000 group gold left all have bumped either two skills or dice or a mix, some three. The lowest personal XP they have is 49 on Nanok, Grey has 64 and The other two stand even at 69.
Currently what's killing me is the Copper Item Cone of Fire. In three of the dungeons it has been used to wipe out large groups of forces pretty much ending at least two dungeon levels in under fifteen mins each, from setup to teardown... If I counter it by spreading my creatures out as much and as far as possible they either don't have the movement to attack a Hero or only one or two can each of my turns, if I group more than two together I get flamed. Am I at a point now where all I can hope is that the players pull Humanoid strong encounters or Humanoid heavy dungeons where all three levels are lucky eneogh to pull Humanoid heavy levels... Is this the only way I can pull out of this... I plan on fleeing with Sir Alric to my OL keep when he's attacked, then spawning the second Farrow brother and send them both to seige Vynelvale (that way if the players force one to flee at least he respawns one turn away from Vynelvale to keep the seige on the town till it falls. At this point I'm only interested in razing it for the skills I'll cost the Heroes, especially Precision...
So back to my question... how screwed am I?
But a few minor rules wrong, and a bit of bad luck and things can go bad very quickly.