Some maths: Average damage and RF chance for tearing attacks.

By FateDenied, in Deathwatch

What follows is a whole pile of calculated values for the expected damage of tearing attacks, your chances of getting a Righteous Fury trigger, etc. I've taken into account up to two tearing dice, up to three base damage dice, and the possibility of RF triggering on 8, 9 or 10.

The full data is below, followed by the perl script used to generate it, in case anyone wishes to dispute methodology. I'll pull some interesting and useful numbers out of the data shortly.

== Rolling 1 dice, keeping the top 1. Reroll if below 5.5. ==
Single roll average: (55 / 10) = 5.500
Average total if reroll below threshold: 6.750
Without reroll, chance of RF: RF10: %10.000. RF9: %20.000. RF8: %30.000.
With reroll, fishing for RF: RF10: %19.000. RF9: %36.000. RF8: %51.000.

== Rolling 2 dice, keeping the top 1. Reroll if below 7.15. ==
Single roll average: (715 / 100) = 7.150
Average total if reroll below threshold: 8.133
Without reroll, chance of RF: RF10: %19.000. RF9: %36.000. RF8: %51.000.
With reroll, fishing for RF: RF10: %34.390. RF9: %59.040. RF8: %75.990.

== Rolling 3 dice, keeping the top 1. Reroll if below 7.975. ==
Single roll average: (7975 / 1000) = 7.975
Average total if reroll below threshold: 8.750
Without reroll, chance of RF: RF10: %27.100. RF9: %48.800. RF8: %65.700.
With reroll, fishing for RF: RF10: %46.856. RF9: %73.786. RF8: %88.235.

== Rolling 2 dice, keeping the top 2. Reroll if below 11.0. ==
Single roll average: (1100 / 100) = 11.000
Average total if reroll below threshold: 12.650
Without reroll, chance of RF: RF10: %19.000. RF9: %36.000. RF8: %51.000.
With reroll, fishing for RF: RF10: %34.390. RF9: %59.040. RF8: %75.990.

== Rolling 3 dice, keeping the top 2. Reroll if below 13.475. ==
Single roll average: (13475 / 1000) = 13.475
Average total if reroll below threshold: 14.993
Without reroll, chance of RF: RF10: %27.100. RF9: %48.800. RF8: %65.700.
With reroll, fishing for RF: RF10: %46.856. RF9: %73.786. RF8: %88.235.

== Rolling 4 dice, keeping the top 2. Reroll if below 14.9675. ==
Single roll average: (149666 / 10000) = 14.967
Average total if reroll below threshold: 16.279
Without reroll, chance of RF: RF10: %34.390. RF9: %59.040. RF8: %75.990.
With reroll, fishing for RF: RF10: %56.953. RF9: %83.223. RF8: %94.235.

== Rolling 3 dice, keeping the top 3. Reroll if below 16.5. ==
Single roll average: (16500 / 1000) = 16.500
Average total if reroll below threshold: 18.525
Without reroll, chance of RF: RF10: %27.100. RF9: %48.800. RF8: %65.700.
With reroll, fishing for RF: RF10: %46.856. RF9: %73.786. RF8: %88.235.

== Rolling 4 dice, keeping the top 3. Reroll if below 19.467. ==
Single roll average: (194667 / 10000) = 19.467
Average total if reroll below threshold: 21.404
Without reroll, chance of RF: RF10: %34.390. RF9: %59.040. RF8: %75.990.
With reroll, fishing for RF: RF10: %56.953. RF9: %83.223. RF8: %94.235.

== Rolling 5 dice, keeping the top 3. Reroll if below 21.458. ==
Single roll average: (2145825 / 100000) = 21.458
Average total if reroll below threshold: 23.225
Without reroll, chance of RF: RF10: %40.951. RF9: %67.232. RF8: %83.193.
With reroll, fishing for RF: RF10: %65.132. RF9: %89.263. RF8: %97.175.

Perl script that generated above:

#! /usr/bin/perl

my $roll = shift @ARGV;
my $keep = shift @ARGV;
my $threshold = shift @ARGV;

my $total;
my $count;
my $totalth;
my $countth;
my $rfcount;
my $rfcount9;
my $rfcount8;

for (my $ii = 0; $ii < 10 ** $roll; $ii++) {
my @scores;
for (my $jj = 0; $jj < $roll; $jj++) {
$scores[$jj] = ($ii / (10 ** $jj)) % 10;
if (!$scores[$jj]) {
$scores[$jj] = 10;
}
}
@scores = sort {$b <=> $a} @scores;
if ($scores[0] == 10) {
$rfcount++;
}
if ($scores[0] >= 9) {
$rfcount9++;
}
if ($scores[0] >= 8) {
$rfcount8++;
}

my $thisscore = 0;
for (my $jj = 0; $jj < $keep; $jj++) {
$thisscore += $scores[$jj];
}

$total += $thisscore;
$count++;
if (!$threshold || ($thisscore >= $threshold)) {
$totalth += $thisscore;
$countth++;
}
}

print "== Rolling $roll dice, keeping the top $keep. Reroll if below $threshold. ==";
print "Single roll average: ($total / $count) = ".sprintf("%.3f",$total/$count);
my $thavg = ($totalth / $countth);
if ($threshold) {
# print "First roll with threshold: ($totalth / $countth) = ".sprintf("%.3f",$thavg);
print "Average total if reroll below threshold: ".sprintf("%.3f",($totalth + $total*($count - $countth)/$count)/$count);
}
printf("Without reroll, chance of RF: RF10: %%%.3f. RF9: %%%.3f. RF8: %%%.3f.",(100*$rfcount/$count), (100*$rfcount9/$count), (100*$rfcount8/$count));
printf("With reroll, fishing for RF: RF10: %%%.3f. RF9: %%%.3f. RF8: %%%.3f.", 100*(1-(1-$rfcount/$count)**2), 100*(1-(1-$rfcount9/$count)**2), 100*(1-(1-$rfcount8/$count)**2));

Some useful numbers:

Average roll of 1d10 tearing: 7.15

Average roll of 2d10 tearing: 13.475

A reroll is always worth less than a single dice of tearing.

Chance of triggering RF on three dice: 27% (bolter attack)

Chance of triggering RF on three dice, with reroll, and RF on 9+: 73% (blood angel assault marine on nova turn)

Hope people find those numbers useful. I didn't need all of them myself, but once I was working out a few, I thought I might as well do a proper job for future reference.

Something I was never quite sure about. Does a rerolled roll count as "natural" result? The rules for RF say, "on a roll of a natural 10".

Since I didn´t find anything that modifies a die roll in the rules (xcept the 10 on a d5), I am a bit curious what that "natural" is supposed to be.

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that that means 'when you get +2 to damage from Mighty Shot, you don't get RF on 8+'. I reckon a 10 on a reroll is still a natural 10.

Not sure. But either way, tearing includes no rerolls anyways I just noticed.

Yup, the weapons are totally out of hand. I only ran the free adventure 1-shot but I've read through the Deathwatch. There wasn't a single encounter that the players didn't just breeze through. Each marine killed one enemy a round. The horde rules helped a bit but the Heavy Bolter basically burned that down too. The toughest fight was when they had to kill some genestealers, they took a few wounds but baring really bad roles they would have been just fine.

The more I read Deathwatch the more I'm confused by the choices made in the game. It just makes the whole 40k roleplay a mess of rules and stats. It is impossible to play the games together. I had hopes of an Inquisitor and a few marines solving mysteries and tackling alien threats. I was very excited about some great 40k games. I just can't do that with Deathwatch because a Space Marine is so powerful in combat (from the start) and so useless at everything else (ignoring the books and background) that it just... I can't make this make sense. Most of it's the raw damage output, the guns are just to good but without them the Space Marines suck, so basically they are defined by their bolter... not being Space Marines! A group of space marines would die against even Ascension threats if forced to use Ascension gear. I'm sorry but a Space Marine should be pretty awesome even when you disarm him. Instead they die without bolters and one shot everything with them.

Basically they LOOK compatible but Deathwatch isn't actually compatible with the other two games because the weapons and character rules are so imbalanced that a Space Marine either wipes out anything in one hit or it has so many wounds/armor/toughness that no other character actually contributes. A genestealer in the tabletop game could be defeated by an Inquisitor or even a Deathcult assassin. Instead the Deathwatch Genestealer has so much wounds and so much damage that it would one-shot any Ascension character. We have to use the weaker Dark Heresy Genestealer which would get one shot by the damage of an Astartes Bolter. The only option is to turn the game into a grindfest of dozens of enemies NOT in a horde so that everyone gets to kill them instead of just the Marine.

They may want Marines to feel bad ass, but they do so at the expense of the game line. If you want to play 40k role play you better never hope that any character from one game could ever cross over to another. They may share rules but they don't work together. On it's own Deathwatch doesn't actually function either. Almost all of the enemies in the core book get torn up in a couple rounds of combat. I get the feeling that the designer just wanted to feel awesome during testing and didn't really balance the game. It's like running a game for 5 Min-Max'd Mary-Sues instead of Space Marines. It doesn't feel like the tabletop game or the novels.

Well, it might if the GM just basically lies behind the GM screen. Having to do that is a sign of a terribly designed game and ...well why play a game if you have to secretly cheat to make it fun?

I cannot understand how you can possibly be playing the same game that I am playing.

I've only run one game so far, and I've had marines taking wounds from Hormagants (admittedly, 1 & 2 point wounds), but wounds from single hormagaunts. Most of the marines don't have Swift attack, and they are in melee with the Hormagants, so they can kill a maximum of one per turn. If they had been facing a horde, that would have been an extra 1d10 or 2d10 on those hormagant attacks, and no possibility of dodging or parrying either.

I've had them shoot a heavy bolter at a Tyranid Warrior too, and the Devastator definitely didn't "one shot" it, not did his first Full Auto burst of 10 kill it either.

I can't understand how the bolter is chewing up foes so swiftly for you, given that enemies should definitely be seeking some cover when taking fire from Space Marines, as well as Dodging. Even if the foe only has a 30% dodge, and 50% cover for 8 points, that should be doing something.

I also don't understand how the Marines are totally avoiding taking any wounds. Those small wounding attacks should be adding up, as there's not a lot of ways to get them back (other than Medicae) and it takes hours or even days to get them back when they are gone.

What are your marines doing when a Tyranid Warrior produces 3 or 4 attacks from a Lightning Attack and Extra arms? They can only parry one, and statistically, about 2 should hit, and do non-insignificant amounts of damage. How are they avoiding the hordes?

I just don't see any of the issues you are having in my games. Weird.

Well, I can see where ShatterCake is coming from.

He basically says that a lot of a Space Marines strengh comes from his items. Which is quite true. Take a newly created Marine, now take away all his gear (weapons, armour, everything), and see what´s left. Now compare what´s left to an unequipped Ascesion character. Sure the Marine still has his Unnatural Strength and Toughness, but that´s it then.

Correct me if I´m wrong (@ShatterCake), but I think the essence of this rant is that there´s too much power bound to items and not enough to the character himself.

The character himself is still horrifying. He may not be able to stand up to an Ascension character, but why should he? Yes, when a marine has all of his equipment he's a monster - as he should be.

Crossover play between DH(A), RT and DW are a secondary consideration at best. The games are designed to be good when played individually, if there are any crossover difficulties then it is up to the GM to solve them. DW is designed to let you play Death Watch Marines as they should be played. They can be played alongside characters from other games (and I think the difficulties people claim exist in this regard are exaggerated - for example the FS genestealers aren't really more powerful than the CA ones, just simplified to make them easier to run with a demo adventure), but nerfing their equipment or boosting their corestats to make crossover play easier would have been a poor design decision.

Space marines are defined by their equipment. That is why you never see them out of their armor if there is any chance, however remote of conflict.

Without their armor and equipment space marines are little more than competent Ogryns.

ItsUncertainWho said:

Space marines are defined by their equipment. That is why you never see them out of their armor if there is any chance, however remote of conflict.

Without their armor and equipment space marines are little more than competent Ogryns.

Hold the phone here. If you take away their equipment, Space Marines still have their solo and squad abilities from decades or centuries of training and studying the codex astartes. DH and RT characters do not ever have the option of gaining these abilities.

Never mind SMs having all-around superior statistics to "mortals". With their equipment, the combination is absolute murder. As it should be, given their role as the "angels of death".

I don't think there's as large a gap as Shattercake makes out outside of the boltgun. The powerfist in Rogue Trader is virtually identical to the one in Deathwatch, and the difference between an Astartes Chainsword and a Dark Heresy Chainsword is one point of damage and two points of penetration. It's a bit of an edge, but not so much that those stats would completely cripple a Marine. Then you get the Astartes Power Sword, which does a whole point of damage over the Dark Heresy power sword.