Probability breakdown, using the probability tool, for the pool of:

1x purple, 2x blue, 1x yellow, and either 2x green or 2x red.

(Note: this is for a 5-stat person)

Chance of 3 or more successes: (G)0.5701 vs 0.5499®
Chance of 2 or more successes: (G)0.7935 vs 0.7562®
Chance of 1 or more successes: (G) 0.9298 vs 0.9006®
Chance of no successes: (G) 0.0702 vs 0.0994®

Chance of 3 or more boons: (G)0.2039 vs 0.1801®
Chance of 2 or more boons: (G)0.4788 vs 0.3708®
Chance of 1 or more boons: (G)0.7659 vs 0.6183®
Chance of no boons: (G)0.1668 vs 0.2125®
Chance of 1 or more banes: (G)0.0674 vs 0.1692®
Chance of 2 or more banes: (G)0.0108 vs 0.0521®
Chance of 3 or more banes: (G)0.0000 vs 0.0100®

Conservative (Green) dice beat out the Reckless (Red) dice in every single category. Granted, sometimes it is by only a percent or two. And, I am not saying that the Conservative dice are better overall. To balance out, sometimes the Reckless sides of cards (especially melee actions) have slightly better effect lines.

Crits are hit or miss. Yes, sometimes you will get a to Fel on that beastman.

Then again, in my recent Journey to Black Fire Pass demo, the two criticals inflicted on the Orc Warboss (from a TFS) were:

Gain a fatigue when performing a movement maneuver

AND

When you gain a fatigue, gain an additional fatigue.

Pretty crippling, especially since the damage from the TFS already put him down to 3 wounds left.

gruntl said:

Yes, I'm certain. There's an easy test for it.

I went to the probability tool and entered 1 yellow die, nothing else in the pool.

A yellow die has 6 sides, being 2 w/ boons, 1 w/ success, 1 w/ righteous success, 1 w/ comet and 1 blank.

So, if the probability tool is counting comets as a success, then the chance of getting 1 or more successes should be exactly 50% (because 3 sides are giving 1 or more success). If it's not counting comets as successes, then the chance should to about 33%.

Likewise, if it is counting comets as boons, the numbers would be a little more than 50% (since three sides would be a boon, and there's also the possibility of getting 1 or more righteous successes followed by a boon). It's not counting comets as boons, then we should expect to see a little more than 33% chance of boon odds

Put in 1 yellow die, and it says:
"Chance of 1 or more successes: 0.5000"
"Chance of 1 or more boons: 0.5833"

Clearly, every time you get a comet, it counts them as both a success AND a boon. So my 5% estimate is indeed about as accurate as I imagined it to be.

This suggests that the probability generator will frequently over-estimate the power of a yellow die, and over-estimate the success and boon rate of any roll that uses a yellow die.

I also noticed another weird mathematical anomaly to the probability tool and yellow dice: It over-estimates the ability of a single yellow die to score 3 or more successes. To do so, the expertise die would need to roll a righteous success (1 in 6) followed by a righteous success (1 in 6) followed by either a success, a comet, or another righteous success (3 in 6). 1/6 * 1/6 * 3/6 = 3/216, about a 1.38% chance. The probability tool instead lists it at 2.78%, about double what it should be. All the other numbers for a single die of any type appear to be correct, not sure why it's got this one wrong.

From these two errors with the yellow die, we can conclude that the odds of scoring the really high damage results on troll-feller strike are actually much lower than what my initial analysis (or your reply) suggested.

Ok, good to know the probability generator works that way. I think that's a quite bad decision, it would have been preferable to just leave out the comet results (or perhaps to have a switch letting you control how you want to use it).

Anyway, I don't think we'll get much further discussing the reckless contra conservative, thanks for presenting some approximate numbers at least

Bottom line is that characters are more effective then the 60% (average) wiff factor previous editions had, this is across the board, combat, skills general tests. This new version is a game about characters that are far more capable of doing things from the get go and it does skip over that blundering about in the dark period. The characters are Heroes from the beginning which means they can tackle greater odds from the start. It doesn't in anyway make the game less grim. Actually it can help tell even more grim tales from the onset because the characters aren't going to be fumbled at the first handful of goblins they run afoul of.

Perhaps more importantly is that while the characters are hitting more often, the monsters usually are too since they are build around a similar set of capabilities. WFRP 3 has left the world of Whack-a-mole behind and it's a much better game because of it.

Kryyst said:

I agree 100%

Kryyst said:

I agree and would like to add that this is now very similar to WFB 8.0, which I also play.