https://nichurz.wixsite.com/mysite/post/damage-floor-ceiling-and-average-why-i-feel-leading-shots-is-bad

I like your examination of ceilings, averages, and floors, but I disagree with your assessment. For me, Leading Shots is a fail-safe for your swingy red dice. It gives you a chance to swing big, with a solid back-up plan if you come up with too many blanks or accuracies.

1) In your example with the four Red dice (double hit, hit, and 2 x blanks), the ceiling actually increases before the Leading Shots roll. If I don't reroll anything, the ceiling does not change because that’s the result; if I reroll the two blank red dice, depending what face is on the blue die I'm spending, the ceiling goes up at least 0.75.

2) In the paragraph following that example, you are calculating the Leading Shots roll against the initial roll's ceiling, average, and floor, which are now irrelevant (unless you are rerolling hits other than the spend die). Let’s just say you roll 4 x blanks (Reds), 3 x hits (Blues), and 1 x Accuracy (the Blues being “average”). If I keep the roll, the ceiling, average, and floor are all 3 because the roll is over; if I choose to spend the Blue Accuracy to reroll the 4 x blank Reds, the ceiling increases to 11 (which is only one less than the initial roll), the average increases to 6 (the same average as the initial roll), and the floor increases to 3 (3 more than the initial roll).

Leading shots also helps boost flak, at least on two die flak shots.

I would challenge two parts of your writeup.

First, crits do provide damage, but that damage is contingent on getting the critical symbol. Just applying the damage to the average isn't fair if you aren't accounting for the chance the crit won't appear. You can mitigate this various ways (Screed being the most famous) but then you really want to include that in your calculations (points efficiency for example) somewhere.

Second, your Leading Shots discussion assumes you are rerolling the entire pool like Veteran Gunners. I don't think I've ever Leading Shots rerolled an entire pool, even fishing for accuracies to kill flotillas. Yes the possible average damage and ceiling fall, but that comes back to points about using your upgrades well. If you only reroll the two red hits, .75x2 is 1.5 expected damage versus one spent, which is generally my benchmark for losing a blue hit (a wasted accuracy I'll toss for only one die of reroll). Incorporating this into your discussion will show why LS has the following it does.

After rolling 5 dmg including 2 red blanks, I offer you the following choice;

Reroll both red with leading shots to increase damage to 8,

Or

Replace the two blanks with an accuracy?

What do you do? In the former you have higher damage output, so that must be the wise choice. Alas, we are forgetting defence tokens. Studying damage outputs without considering defence tokens is somewhat questionable. 5dmg plus accuracy does more damage to a single brace or scatter ship that 8dmg without the accuracy.

Sensor teams 4 lyf.

2 hours ago, GiledPallaeon said:

Second, your Leading Shots discussion assumes you are rerolling the entire pool like Veteran Gunners.

Although I think the article's discussion of damage is misguided, I disagree with this part of your critique.

" We reroll our 2 blanks by spending a blue die and by so doing reducing our damage ceiling for this attack pool."

This sentence is an oversimplification of how damage works, but it is how many players would use Leading Shots--rerolling just the blanks, not the whole pool.

33 minutes ago, Ginkapo said:

Sensor teams 4 lyf.

Darn... CGYSO and Steel Command told me to rip up, burn, then stomp on the ashes of my Sensor Team cards a few waves ago... Thanks, Guys!

7 hours ago, Ginkapo said:

5dmg plus accuracy does more damage to a single brace or scatter ship that 8dmg without the accuracy.

Assuming one is in an environment where that single brace is susceptible to an accuracy in the first place. The problem is in the payoff for the investment being unreliable.

Besides, Leading Shots offers good odds of generating an accuracy on most of the ships that take it (even the ISD-1 or Kuat, not ships known for natural accuracy generation, get an extra 50% chance if they reroll aggressively.)

While still having the ability to just increase average damage instead.

I see what I did wrong with the leading shots average math I kept the assumed 3 damage as .75 not sure why I did that , I apologize.

However I have still have a preference for sw-7 with LTT or another turbolaser with Intensify firepower over leading shots as to me it seams to more consistently spike and get more consistent damage.

I mean, mathematically it does do more damage (~7.6 on an ISD-2 battery vs ~6.91 for conservative rerolls, as I understand it.) Which it ought to, because it’s 3 times the cost and takes the turbolaser slot.

22 hours ago, Formynder4 said:

Leading shots also helps boost flak, at least on two die flak shots.

This. For me the main reason to keep Leading shots (as well as a tilt towards Gunnery Team) was flak. Otherwise on ISD2 things like SW7/LTT/TRC/IF would be preferable, especially once damage floor from the side arc is considered.