The Poe Principle & Soontir Should be 69 Points

By Boom Owl, in X-Wing

3 hours ago, Kleeg005 said:

So here's a thought exercise: what happens if there is a listbuilding restriction that says, "You may only ever have one i6 in a list, and no more than two of i5/i6 in any combination in a list."? Suddenly, and Ace feels like an Ace, a solitary repository of amazeballs surrounded by lesser beings. That sounds good to me. Thematic. Appropriate. And maybe even balanced?

20 minutes ago, Gilarius said:

This, I like. But I still don't want to see Obi-wan and Anakin in the same list. Plo or Mace aren't so oppressive, having less force or lower Init.

Conversely, Redline is priced high enough that he can't have all the toys he'd like so I don't mind seeing him in the same list as an Ace. Unlike the first set of points!

So slightly more nuanced restrictions, not simply Init based would work better.

Fair points, eh? And points to some of the difficulties inherent in the discussion. While Redline has some "Ace-like" attributes - namely "free" double mods, he doesn't behave or survive like an Ace. He's scary, to be sure, but not as scary as ANY Force user. And of course, rather a few a double Ace lists consisting of an i5 and an i6 has consistently been proven as viable in every meta: Boba/Fenn, Boba/Guri, Ani/Obi, Han/+1, etc. As Boom Owl has said, though, virtually all Aces need a points bump. Maybe that bump takes care of those still-broken double Ace lists when implemented in conjunction with a listbuilding restriction? And frankly, this model would unduly punish TIE Aces, for example, who while strong are not exactly overpowered due to the limitations of their chassis. But again, most of that kind of chassis and pilot aren't really Aces, are they? It's not a perfect system, and to an extent has already been implemented in the current Hyperspace curation with modestly positive effect. I will continue to hold out hope for a simple, elegant solution. We're so close.

1 hour ago, Boom Owl said:

I also dont agree that buffing the rest of the cards via pt reductions can solve this well. The gap in mechanics and power level is just big.

@Boom Owl I agree with you, I stated the ships are undercosted. I just think ffg is going to leave those ships alone and decrease others, that doesn't mean I like it or agree with it.

1 hour ago, Boom Owl said:

Every i4 ship you mentioned loses out right to current Ace list options. Simply bringing an i4 ship, even just one is a massive handicap.

Agreed which is why I wrote that they were the most playable, that's hardly a ringing endorsement. Barring ffg raising the cost of aces these ships will need help if they are going to compete.

Poe should definitely go up in price.

Thanks for raising the topic.

3 hours ago, Boom Owl said:

Some rambling responses to the masses

  • This point cycle was defined by basically zero changes to the costs of the prior meta staples.
    • Aces basically did not change at all.
    • Already have all the data we need from pre-pt change Extended.
    • There is no "secret" swarm or generic list made possible by the previous point reductions that can compete consistently with the Undercosted Aces.
    • Closest thing is CIS Swarm, the rest of the card pool is largely irrelevant.

    • Minor Fixes is all we have had for Aces since 2.0 Started
    • Its time for a real change and for them to actually shake things up.
    • We have almost 2 years of evidence that Passive Mod Stacked i5/i6 Aces are dramatically more powerful than the rest of the card pool. Including every good Swarm list that has shown up.
    • Nothing compares besides a few blips with Quad Phantoms, Leia Beef, and occasionally CIS Swarms supported by Ensanre hanging around in various forms.

Everything that didn't change last point cycle was essentially "nerfed"in the sence that everything around it got buffed. Seeing your enemies buffed and able to field an extra body against your same list, does not equel unchanged in the meta. As many other option became much more viable it should downgrade the last season's meta staples.

It might still mean they remain good viable option that can win tournaments and can even mean they remain top tier playable, but with more other archtypes to be able to also achieve that. And if not enough start by upping them a bit next to the buffs to other stuffs, but not by so much you risk pricing them out completly.

Even though you say minor changes is all we got and was not enough fo you. Adding on minor changes on minor changes already becomes a big one. Plus we haven't fully seen the effect of the major buffs to generics that broke through bunch of tresholds yet due to lack of tournament data with the lockdowns. So I still say take minor changes this round. If for instance Soontir needs to go up still. Start by a few points now and not 10+ in one go around.

Reading these types of threads always make me happy that we as the players and posters on the forums don't make the points changes ourselves. As a lot of what is often being said basicly translates into: "Please nerf triple aces out of the meta." After which the next thing will be to offensive and gets cries for nerfs. Have fun watching CIS swarm mirrors at the top for an entire season for example.

10 minutes ago, Revanur said:

As a lot of what is often being said basicly translates into: "Please nerf triple aces out of the meta."

True.

That doesnt mean for one moment that aces would be nerfed out of the meta. Its possible to play them without 2 other cheap aces as wingmates. Even if you added 10 pts to some of them thats still possible.

Im so confused by people who think CIS Swarm inherits the meta if you nerf Trip Aces. And even then increasing the cost of the things I listed wouldnt price Trip Ace out entirely, and it certainly wouldnt make the CIS Swarm matchup unplayable.

There so many ways to dunk on CIS Swarm. Issue is many of those ways get thanos snapped in the Ace matchups.

Edited by Boom Owl

whisper and soontir have been near the top of literally every meta in 2.0 to date that they weren't explicitly banned from so i'm really not sure what additional evidence it is that people keep saying to wait for

13 minutes ago, Boom Owl said:

True.

That doesnt mean for one moment that aces would be nerfed out of the meta. Its possible to play them without 2 other cheap aces as wingmates. Even if you added 10 pts to some of them thats still possible.

Im so confused by people who think CIS Swarm inherits the meta if you nerf Trip Aces. And even then increasing the cost of the things I listed wouldnt price Trip Ace out entirely, and it certainly wouldnt make the CIS Swarm matchup unplayable.

There so many ways to dunk on CIS Swarm. Issue is many of those ways get thanos snapped in the Ace matchups.

Maybe some of the Aces would then still be played in lists with other ships, but I already don't want to see the triple aces archtype being taken away out of the meta. A lot of players also enjoy playing with and/or against it. Rained in a bit to fall in line with other archtypes. Yes sure, let that happen. But as I said before I vastly prefer a cautious approach over a zealous one.

Also I just pointed CIS Swarm out as an example. I know they can be beaten, just like triple aces already can be. Be free to insert any other list(type) to replace. As something else will come out on top after taking something completly out of the meta for sure.

15 minutes ago, svelok said:

whisper and soontir have been near the top of literally every meta in 2.0 to date that they weren't explicitly banned from so i'm really not sure what additional evidence it is that people keep saying to wait for

The current points changes should be shown to effect before drastic measures should be taken. I wouldn't mind seeing them up Soontir and Whisper next update, but not so drastic to make them possible bottom tier in one strike. Likewise I expect Zizi to go up as that A-wing looks to be very cheap for it's strength and now shows up in almost all Resistance lists I see accross the table, but also wouldn't want Zizi getting the axe to hard.

@Boom Owl I think this is a much more appealing discussion than the limited upgrades count thread. It's realistic, and I think this type of change has interesting and worth-discussing implications for the meta. I'm enjoying reading it and I feel your arguments are frequently very reasonable. I don't enjoy the aces dominance of the meta, personally, and I like the idea of using Poe as a baseline for discussion.

That said, as pointed out already, if you remove a top predator you can always expect other monsters to rise to dominance. (edit: and by that I mean, some lists aren't even brought to the table anymore because they cannot compete with the lists they're likely to face; they can return from out of the ether when their top predator weakens). I don't particularly enjoy fighting beef lists and swarms either, for example, and the aces' ability to pick these lists apart may be the main thing keeping them from dominating the meta. With ace presence reduced (e.g. rarer or no more triple aces) I'm curious who would rise to the top and whether they'd be an improvement. Meta adjustments are so easily reduced to a "change in management"; new boss, same old crap. ;) That said, the triple aces sure aren't fun to fight with lists not designed for them, and they keep a lot of lists from becoming viable. I can see it being an improvement, as long as aces themselves remain genuinely viable in the meta (just not the gold standard and easy to field 3 monsters at a time).

I should react to something specific you said... IMO nobody would fly Soontir at Poe's price. 3 hull behind 3 agility is far, far too variance-vulnerable to ever be worth the cost. Even flying him cagey like a player should, all he needs is one mildly bad round to wipe out a third of your list, and a lot of lists have the arcs to push him into that position. Devoting that many points to such a delicate flower is likely never going to be viable unless the rest of the meta changes a lot. Currently Soontir can only be flown viable either extremely light (around 55 pts), or sometimes heavy with full defense boosts (70 points with predator + hull upgrade + shield upgrade). I haven't fought a heavy Soontir in a while though; everyone seems to keep him light in my area to grant points to his Vader + 1 other ace allies. He's a cheap pocket ace they can afford to lose, when they fly him at all (Republic aces much are more popular here than Soontir lists, for obvious reasons).

As for why this may or may not happen... an important point to note, FFG may be a knife's edge in terms of their x-wing community, and they have to think about the continued health of the game's community as the corona virus' effect hopefully starts to dissipate. They may be moving conservatively to keep from rocking the boat during these trying times for the game. A shock to the system like making triple aces far less viable wouldn't necessarily hurt a large percentage of their players, but in my experience, some of those hurt by it would be incredibly vitriolic. Ultra-vocal minorities can be trouble for a game when it's trying to pull new people in; just ask Darkest Dungeon's devs about the "corpse update"! Ace players are very dedicated to their craft, and to be fair to them, a major overhaul of ace prices would nearly kick their favorite archetype out of the game. You can expect a response for that, though IMO with all the ways there are to play x-wing, it should be more muted than what I expect we'd see.

That said, if FFG determined the overall effect on the game's enjoyment was positive enough, and importantly the change drew more people in who were on the fence because of stories about NPE experiences with aces, then I can see them taking such a radical step. It kinda feels like they're experimenting with hit a bit in Hyperspace, and they may take more steps in that direction for a bit before pulling the trigger.

But personally I'm expecting somewhat more conservative tweaks in the next update -- deal with Boba in Hyperspace, for example, but leave things as they are so they can see more playtesting and tournaments before making a call. And though likely, the likely Boba nerf makes me a bit sad since it's been nice seeing Scum participate in the meta again. ;)

Edited by Wazat
57 minutes ago, Wazat said:

I should react to something specific you said... IMO nobody would fly Soontir at Poe's price. 3 hull behind 3 agility is far, far too variance-vulnerable to ever be worth the cost. Even flying him cagey like a player should, all he needs is one mildly bad round to wipe out a third of your list, and a lot of lists have the arcs to push him into that position. Devoting that many points to such a delicate flower is likely never going to be viable unless the rest of the meta changes a lot. Currently Soontir can only be flown viable either extremely light (around 55 pts), or sometimes heavy with full defense boosts (70 points with predator + hull upgrade + shield upgrade). I haven't fought a heavy Soontir in a while though; everyone seems to keep him light in my area to grant points to his Vader + 1 other ace allies. He's a cheap pocket ace they can afford to lose, when they fly him at all (Republic aces much are more popular here than Soontir lists, for obvious reasons).

I dont really even know where to begin in responding to this...

I think I am just going to go with "I disagree".

1 hour ago, Wazat said:

I think this is a much more appealing discussion than the limited upgrades count thread.

For whatever its worth denying Aces Upgrades was a middle ground that doesnt involve massive point increases to their base costs.

Edited by Boom Owl

Put a pip on initiative 5 and 6.

And, while they're working out how to digitise all these reprints, put stress back on Slave 1.

44 minutes ago, Boom Owl said:

I dont really even know where to begin in responding to this...

I think I am just going to go with "I disagree".

That's really not a very helpful response, honestly it comes off as passive-aggressive. :( Not sure if that was the intent but whatever. I'll quote one of the posts I'm reacting to, in case that's a concern:

6 hours ago, Boom Owl said:

Poe is like the Anti-Soontir. Imagine if Soontir was priced properly? He would be 69-70 pts. At least 1 pt more than Poe.

The existing 70-point Soontir (shield + hull upgrade) isn't flown as much because he's competing with Vader and other in-faction prices, but let's imagine all ace prices do in fact go up. However you price Soontir and others, they still need to be viable for how they actually work out on the table. I can't see a 70ish-point 3-hull Soontir being a great ace choice; that's about Vader's price right now , but Vader has passive/double mods, extra crit functionality, a sensor slot option, a natural lock without Targeting Computer (instead of natural boost), and great stress-free reposition options; all that on top of two extra shields to absorb the types of mishaps that end Soontir's career too early too often. Soontir is extremely vulnerable to typical dice variance... As currently designed, an expensive + delicate Soontir is a hard sell.

How does a 70-point Soontir compete within his own faction? What's Vader's base cost in this scenario, 90 or 100? I'm curious where all the chips fall so we can talk about viability and what kind of lists would be built around these pieces. I'm okay with discussing 3-ace lists being rare or impossible to field, let's explore that design space. And it's fine to explore a meta where 1 or 2 aces escort some scrubs, instead of 3-ace lists being a gold standard. But I'm curious about what those actual costs should be. It's really hard to talk in a vacuum, and I think considering Soontir's price and how to price other aces with him raises interesting implementation questions.

So we've broached the subject of a 70-point Soontir; given that, how pricey is Vader?

30 minutes ago, Wazat said:

Not sure if that was the intent but whatever.

Wasnt meant to be aggressive. Just easier to say I disagree.

Said more diplomatically, I believe Soontir would still see play and be very effective at 69 pts. Keep in mind I also believe Vader is undercosted by a considerable amount as well.

Edited by Boom Owl
Just now, Boom Owl said:

Wasnt meant to be aggressive. Just easier to say I disagree.

Said more diplomatically, I believe Soontir would still see play and be very effective at 69 pts.

Hmm... what's an example list, e.g. to go against swarms or beef?

Soontir struggles to get onto the table in ace lists at 53pts, currently. Are you crazy?

28 minutes ago, Wazat said:

Hmm... what's an example list, e.g. to go against swarms or beef?

Picking on a semi random recent one...Vader Soontir Fifth Bro has way more than 31 pts of room. Soontir + 16 and Vader + 7 between a 3 pt burners nerf and 4 pt base cost increase would land at 200.

Still has two i6s for every ace matchup and still could deal with any beef or swarm list. Remove Upgrades from Fifth Bro and Soontir gets some quality of life upgrades like Lone Wolf or Crack TC.

Huge number of options could even still bring GI which has 28 pts of room. Would be a legit choice as well but should probably require Vader to lose burners out right and leave only 5 pts of room if its even allowed to fit within 200 with no upgrades.

Could also go with Soontir + 3 Imdaars which has 18 pts of room and could fit crackshot and work wonders against any swarm or beef. Lots of options from my perspective, and huge amounts of point space.

Soontir Fel — TIE Interceptor 53
Ship Total: 53
Half Points: 27 Threshold: 2
Darth Vader — TIE Advanced x1 67
Afterburners 6
Ship Total: 73
Half Points: 37 Threshold: 3
Seventh Sister — TIE Advanced v1 43
Passive Sensors 3
Homing Missiles 5
Ship Total: 51
Half Points: 26 Threshold: 2
Edited by Boom Owl
9 minutes ago, Stay OT Leader said:

Soontir struggles to get onto the table in ace lists at 53pts, currently. Are you crazy?

List Fortress and metawing would like to disagree.

No u.

Edited by Boom Owl
5 minutes ago, Kleeg005 said:

List Fortress and metawing would like to disagree.

Go-to Imp aces is Vader/Whisper/Inq and has been since Worlds. Soontir is a tier 2 ace at the moment.

10 minutes ago, Kleeg005 said:

List Fortress and metawing would like to disagree.

So wait, I just ran Metawing for every Extended event since the points change and Soontir is ranked 21st best pilot with a terrible 20.4% percentile performance.

I think Metawing agrees with me?

21 minutes ago, Stay OT Leader said:

So wait, I just ran Metawing for every Extended event since the points change and Soontir is ranked 21st best pilot with a terrible 20.4% percentile performance.

I think Metawing agrees with me?

I don't remember exactly when the points change was. When I set the filter from 2020-01-12 to 2020-05-12, Extended Only, Pilots only, Fel rolls up at #6. 84 squads in 39 tournaments in that period. Dunno. Maybe I'm using it wrong.

edit: found the filter for since the points change. Which pushes Fel to #8, with 70 squad appearances in 31 tournaments.

edit again: it looks like you are filtering for since Wave 6 dropped, with Fel seeing 44 squad appearances in 24 tournaments, and then the drop to #21. But is that not then an artifact of folks simply trying out all the new hotness?

Edited by Kleeg005
20 minutes ago, Kleeg005 said:

I don't remember exactly when the points change was. When I set the filter from 2020-01-12 to 2020-05-12, Extended Only, Pilots only, Fel rolls up at #6. 84 squads in 39 tournaments in that period. Dunno. Maybe I'm using it wrong.

edit: found the filter for since the points change. Which pushes Fel to #8, with 70 squad appearances in 31 tournaments.

Looks like people in that first week were still playing old lists and Fel did ok. I set my date from the 30th Jan, so by just 10 days later Fel dropped off the map as people started to adapt to the new points.

Worth putting a big asterisk by Metawing in this case as there was virtually no big competitive Extended tournaments during this period, so any ranking for any Extended ships is pretty spurious as it wasn't really being tested.

Edited by Stay OT Leader

I am at the point 2 years into this specific debate that if anyone believes Soontir is not undercosted its easier for me to just say that they are wrong.

Edited by Boom Owl
6 minutes ago, Boom Owl said:

I am at the point 2 years into this specific debate that if anyone believes Soontir is not undercosted its easier for me to just say that they are wrong.

And you've not convinced anyone in 2 years?

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Edited by Boom Owl