Some Dice/talent math/probablity questions

By Benny89, in Star Wars: Edge of the Empire RPG

4 minutes ago, P-47 Thunderbolt said:

It makes sense to cap Defense (see EotE Errata), but I'd just as soon not cap Boost/Setback, particularly because then some things just loose their weight. For Example: What's the point of getting any Boost onto your next slicing check when you've already got your opponent's full signature?

Exactly, besides as I said there is not mention for Boost/Setback cap in corebook so by rules there is none and I agree there should not be. Too many talents and narrative advantages would become inferior because by modding you could cheaply cap boosts very soon into playing leaving no room for either GM or your character development through talents.

Backing to the question about Double or Nothing being great for combat character:


I used this FFG Dice Roll Simulator: https://rpg-dice-roller.herokuapp.com/

TEST No. 1:

And did some simple testings. I was Assuming Gunslinger/Assassin with 5 Agility, 4 Ranged (Light), 3x Quick Strike and gun with Accurate 2 . Not that hard to achieve.

Our pool is YYYYG, BBBBB + B from Aim. I did roll for Medium Range with 2 Purples and 2 setback dices as a quite typical check on medium range.

The average results were the following (after system already cancelled positives from negatives so those are final):

1 2019-12-29 04:34:52 UTC 1 Ability, 4 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 6 Boost, 2 Setback 5 successes, 9 advantages, 1 triumph*
2 2019-12-29 04:34:47 UTC 1 Ability, 4 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 6 Boost, 2 Setback 7 successes, 4 advantages
3 2019-12-29 04:34:31 UTC 1 Ability, 4 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 6 Boost, 2 Setback 3 successes, 6 advantages
4 2019-12-29 04:34:27 UTC 1 Ability, 4 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 6 Boost, 2 Setback 5 successes, 7 advantages
5 2019-12-29 04:34:21 UTC 1 Ability, 4 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 6 Boost, 2 Setback 2 successes, 11 advantages
6 2019-12-29 04:34:18 UTC 1 Ability, 4 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 6 Boost, 2 Setback 5 successes, 5 advantages
7 2019-12-29 04:34:08 UTC 1 Ability, 4 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 6 Boost, 2 Setback 5 successes, 5 advantages
8 2019-12-29 04:33:23 UTC 1 Ability, 4 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 6 Boost, 2 Setback 3 successes, 8 advantages, 1 triumph

As you can see, Double or Nothing would net us absolutely TERRIFIC amount of advantages or triumhs. Enough to fully use Linked, second weapon and get all our strain back every time we do such check. On average it would net us around 13,75 advatages per check. It would also be enough to crit at least once or twice on top of strain recovery assuming we have crit 1-2 on our gun/guns.

TEST No. 2:

Now, looking at more reasonable number, lets say we would like to make Gambler our second spec. So we just finish with our Gunslinger. 5 Agility and 3 Ranged (Light). 2x Quick Strike, gun with Accurate 1 should be very possible at this point (maxed out first specialization). So we are looking at: YYYGG, BBB +B from Aim manouver.

Lets say we shoot again at Medium Range but we get litte tougher checks than above with weaker dice pool for us. So let's say 2x P, 1x R and 3x Setback .

Results (again after system already cancelled positives from negatives):

1 2019-12-29 04:45:23 UTC 2 Ability, 3 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 1 Challenge, 4 Boost, 2 Setback 3 successes, 2 advatages
2 2019-12-29 04:45:19 UTC 2 Ability, 3 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 1 Challenge, 4 Boost, 2 Setback 3 successes, 4 advantages
3 2019-12-29 04:45:07 UTC 2 Ability, 3 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 1 Challenge, 4 Boost, 2 Setback 4 successes, 2 advantages
4 2019-12-29 04:44:58 UTC 2 Ability, 3 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 1 Challenge, 4 Boost, 2 Setback 2 successes, 3 advantages
5 2019-12-29 04:44:54 UTC 2 Ability, 3 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 1 Challenge, 4 Boost, 2 Setback 4 successes, 5 advantages
6 2019-12-29 04:44:49 UTC 2 Ability, 3 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 1 Challenge, 4 Boost, 2 Setback 5 successes, 6 advantages, 1 triumph*, 1 despair**
7 2019-12-29 04:44:44 UTC 2 Ability, 3 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 1 Challenge, 4 Boost, 2 Setback 4 successes, 1 triumph*
8 2019-12-29 04:44:35 UTC 2 Ability, 3 Proficiency, 2 Difficulty, 1 Challenge, 4 Boost, 2 Setback 7 advantages, 1 despair**

As we can see we definitely got lower results. But please bear in mind that 4 Ranged (Light) would not be a big upgrade problem (even 5) and Accurate 2 also. But we took lower numbers with worse negatives added and still if we were to use Double or Nothing, we would be able to use 2x Linked + Second Weapon (assuming Bantha Sight or Paired Weapons mod) almost every time. And in 3 instances also recover fully our Strain. The Average here was 7,25 advantages with Double or Nothing. Still enough to make sure you can fire 4 shots per check easy on average and get some strain back or crit when needed assuming crit 1 on gun when making check.

Please also note, we did not use Second Chances here for rerolling 2-3 of positives dices per encounter. That would net us even more advantages which would be doubled.

So overall, I think I can say that if you are combat spec that puts points into your Agility, skill + Boost dices = Gambler is definitely a great spec to ensure you have enough adv + triumphs to maximize your chances to do maximum damage/dps/burst.

Edited by Benny89
4 hours ago, Benny89 said:

For example a Gunslinger/Assassin with Agility 5 and Range (Light) 4 + 3x Quick Strike ...

Quick Strike is effectively once per encounter, and there's a chance your initiative will be too low (or the other players want to go ahead of you) so that no targets qualify. If you want to see what gives you the most bang for the buck, it doesn't help to clutter up your examples with one-offs like Quick Strike and Second Chances. If you want a badass combat character, consistency of success and damage output is essential, otherwise your character will be waiting around for moments that may never come. I mean, eventually those things may be useful, but they are too mercurial to rely on.

So you want to maximize your dice pool (max characteristic, max skill), Aim frequently, have a weapon that has Accurate, Pierce and/or Vicious, and possibly Auto-fire. Then support all that with Lethal Blows, Sniper Shot, True Aim, Deadly Accuracy, and maybe Targeted Blow (requires a DP, but there's no encounter/session limit, so YMMV). You could even throw in Natural Marksman, which is kind of like Second Chances, and more likely to already be in a shooter's spec tree (so you don't have to go outside career). After that, the stuff you mentioned already is just fun flavour.

Of course, to do all that, let's hope your GM is throwing XP at you by the bucket-load... :)

6 minutes ago, whafrog said:

Quick Strike is effectively once per encounter, and there's a chance your initiative will be too low (or the other players want to go ahead of you) so that no targets qualify. If you want to see what gives you the most bang for the buck, it doesn't help to clutter up your examples with one-offs like Quick Strike and Second Chances. If you want a badass combat character, consistency of success and damage output is essential, otherwise your character will be waiting around for moments that may never come. I mean, eventually those things may be useful, but they are too mercurial to rely on.

So you want to maximize your dice pool (max characteristic, max skill), Aim frequently, have a weapon that has Accurate, Pierce and/or Vicious, and possibly Auto-fire. Then support all that with Lethal Blows, Sniper Shot, True Aim, Deadly Accuracy, and maybe Targeted Blow (requires a DP, but there's no encounter/session limit, so YMMV). You could even throw in Natural Marksman, which is kind of like Second Chances, and more likely to already be in a shooter's spec tree (so you don't have to go outside career). After that, the stuff you mentioned already is just fun flavour.

Of course, to do all that, let's hope your GM is throwing XP at you by the bucket-load... :)

I am doing testing with Gunslinger, who as the core of build is about making your FIRST TURN the most efficient. If I would like consistent damage I would go Heavy/Sharpshooter/Gunner and call it a day with True Aims and Auto-Fire heavy guns. However Gunslinger is all about maximum damage/burst output in your first turn as most of their core talents work only then. So you want as much shots, extra damage + crits as possible in your first turn. Also Initiative with Gunslinger, Rapid Reaction and at least 3 Willpower + couple Vigilance points is really not that hard to win. And also Second Chances here if needed to reroll my initiative positive dice.

Also you replied in less than 60 second from my post. You could at least read whole post and see what build I was trying to show as for why Gambler would be great second/third spec.

But you really think I would need second turn if I used that average 13,75 advantages with Jurry Rigged Auto-Fire? :)

Edited by Benny89
Just now, Benny89 said:

Also you replied in less than 60 second from my post.

I was replying to an earlier post. You can't imagine I wrote all that in 60 seconds.

1 minute ago, Benny89 said:

I am doing testing with Gunslinger, who as the core of build is about making your FIRST TURN the most efficient.

I must have missed where you specified that.

5 minutes ago, whafrog said:

I must have missed where you specified that.

In literally almost every post I am saying word "Gunslinger" (nah, not that much but I was mentioning it :D ). And my tests above were showing how much of a boost to Gunslinger the Gambler tree is as his first turn is his golden turn.

And I agree with you that I would prefer True Aims for consitent shooter. But Gunslinger is not spec for that :)

5 minutes ago, whafrog said:

I was replying to an earlier post. You can't imagine I wrote all that in 60 seconds.

Quote was simillar so I assumed it was for last post, sorry about that :)

Edited by Benny89
3 minutes ago, Benny89 said:

In literally almost every post I am saying word "Gunslinger" (nah, not that much but I was mentioning it :D ). And my tests above were showing how much of a boost to Gunslinger the Gambler tree is as his first turn is his golden turn.

Not to quibble, but the OP is about general stats and math in this game, and you only really key in on Gunslinger much later, and "first turn" is only mentioned a few minutes ago. So if you're going to move the goal posts, at least let somebody know. We're not mind-readers.

7 minutes ago, whafrog said:

Not to quibble, but the OP is about general stats and math in this game, and you only really key in on Gunslinger much later, and "first turn" is only mentioned a few minutes ago. So if you're going to move the goal posts, at least let somebody know. We're not mind-readers.

Ah, you mean my original post. Agree, true, well lets say that Gambler naturally goes with Probability in this system :D.

But anyway, I guess we went little off road, so sorry about that. Gambler just screams probability manipulation :)


EDIT: But even for Auto-Fire combat character, not Gunslinger that Double or Nothing with right xp spend could mean that he will pretty much never need second turn.

Edited by Benny89